Stafford’s Regression Risk for Rams | California News

0:00The Los Angeles Rams' success hinges on Matthew Stafford, especially heading into the 2026 season. He was crucial in their Super Bowl run back in 2021, and last year he played at an MVP level, leading them to the NFC Championship game. While they don't necessarily need another MVP performance, they need him to play like a top five quarterback to meet expectations. A major concern is Stafford's history of significant statistical drops after his best seasons. For example, after throwing for over 5,000 yards in 2011, his touchdown total plummeted the next year. Similarly, following a 41 touchdown season in 2021, his pace dropped considerably in 2022 before his career high. 46 touchdowns last year. This pattern of regression is something the Rams can't afford again. They don't need him to hit 40 touchdowns, but a dip to around 20, like he's seen before, would be tough to overcome. If he maintains his career touchdown rate of about 4.8% with his usual pass attempts, he'd be around

1:0426 touchdowns, which is manageable. However, if his touchdown rate falls to 3.5%, that would put him at just 19 touchdowns, a scenario the team would struggle with. It's also worth noting that Stafford historically performs better in odd numbered years, with higher yardage and touchdown averages compared to even years. To combat this, the Rams have prioritized keeping Stafford fresh this off season, managing his workload to avoid the kind of decline seen in the past. While replicating last year's career high touchdown numbers is unlikely, they've built a supporting cast to help him succeed. The team is counting on Stafford to break his career trend of dramatic statistical drops after a strong season. This has been California News Today, powered by AI. I'm Corey with the story.