Spread Your Wins And Fly: Drafting the NFL Over/Unders we’re most confident in | PHLY Eagles

0:00Hello everybody and welcome to the P.H.O.Y. Eagles podcast on a beautiful Thursday afternoon. You see us there. Fly in high, Bowel, Brandofe, E.J. Smith, live from the Xfinity Lounge our last day in the Xfinity Lounge. Oh no. Oh. And the summer before we return permanently to the Xfinity studio next Tuesday when we get in rolling for a game week, we are presented by Ashley. We're here. We got the positivity bunny with us. We're ready to go. How you guys feeling? Spread your wins and fly. Fran, I know you over prepare. Over prepare. I prepared. No, I know. I right prepared. Fran told me his process earlier. Let's let's let me let me do this again. Fran, the defending champion. Thank you. The over prepared defending champion. Somehow it's still like in the background of the thumbnail today. Hey, I didn't make that.

1:00You have people with our producing. I knew you were going to say it. I thought the same thing. How is Bowel front and center in a game that he lost? And me, I'm totally fine with my placement. I had a rough showing last year. I got to catch up. I got to catch up. I'm the little bird trying to catch up. But Bowel be in front and center, asking in the glory. I thought it was pretty clear that I was the old one. Bowel was the tyron Lou. I'm off from the shirt. You barely won last year. Let's take a look. Let's take a look at last year's results. If you have it, Lindsey Fran finished 7, 3 and 2. EJ and I both finished 6, 5 and 1. So you won by one and a half games. Not by a full two. Joe, Joe borrow, Joe borrow injury away from me into one half. Only took you six months of prep to get there. Listen, if you stay, if you stay ready, you don't got to get ready. It's right. Also a couple before we begin. There you go. You see it's last round. Look at that. Pushed with the packers. Oh, yes.

2:01Funny that they get it not in half. But really, if you were going to just judge by who was right about the things that they were passionate about, I was the only one who was too, too, to know with my first two picks. So, you know, that's where you're really putting your money. You know what I mean? It's a good thing that's not how we actually score the game. A couple other game things to get to before we continue with the proceedings. We should update now that the 53 man roster is set. Where we stand in a flu world order. If you could pull that one up, which game is this again? Blue world order is how we, when we, when we, we rank the likelihood of the people coming back to the Eagles at the start of the offseason. And right now, EJ Smith is in the lead. Lower point total is what you want in here. And he's got a two point lead, 93 to 95 for him dragging behind at 107. If there are no more transactions this season, EJ will take this home. However, the likes of Adore Jackson, Ben van Sumeran.

3:04That's the big one. Kyle and grandson, Josh Ushe, Brett Toath, although that wouldn't, that's put things in the right direction. Aogbo Ocaronco, any of those guys come back to the practice squad at any point this season and all of a sudden we got to swing that matters. How does it work if they are on the practice squad when I don't get Britain Covey? Because that he's was in a different category. There are guys who were just the UFA's and the RFAs. And then there are the guys who were contract dependent. Covey's was about his contract. That sounds pretty complicated, but I'll take your word for it. Ushe is currently running with the ones down in Miami. And it sounds like Ocaronco might get the start next week on Christmas night for San Francisco on their practice squad, but he was going to be called out. They have no healthy, they have one healthy defensive. Well, I'm glad you brought that up because my biggest source of preparation for today's episode was going through every roster to look at the ex-eggles that they have. Right. Did you know there are only two teams in the entire NFL who don't have it?

4:06They have no eagles on the 53, the practice squad, IR, anything. You might be a little bit surprised by the two of them. I think he would be definitely surprised by one of them. Would you like to guess which team? Dallas Cowboys? No. Dallas Cowboys have Sam Howell. I would have guessed it. I bet you can guess which team has the most ex-eggles on their 53. The Raiders? No, the Raiders have three. Patriots. Patriots have six. Yeah, because they can't. There are a few other teams with four, but the Patriots have six. Right. AJ Brown, Christian Ellis, Milton Williams, Cameron Latu, Kevin Byard and Matt Collins. Eagles North. What I've also done here, football heaven is I have also gone through and for every team I have decided who their most who their most eagles coded player who's never played for the eagles is. So I'll let you have those as we go through.

5:08Got it. Last thing. Okay. We need to say congratulations to Brooks Cabina. Yeah, I can help the beat three men. Rob. Not King of the Beats. You can't do this. It's not good. It's started. You are so good. He took home. He took home the beat writer competition title with the practice squad tiebreaker. Personally, I feel like. Don't do this. Just stop. I just stop. I'm talking about myself. I regret not having four quarterbacks and having chance Campbell on all summer. I didn't think chance can make the roster. I feel like it speaks to the level of competition that I put in kind of like a B B minus performance and still tied for the win in almost one. That's all. I know that he didn't say in front of the bike that he's blaming me for the chance Campbell decision. Like he said behind. Yeah, I mean, that's a name. That's ridiculous. All right, Congrats, Brooks. Fran as defending champion.

6:09By the way, we are using the draft Kings listed overunders. All of them are up to a half. Yep. So there are no even numbers here. You get to decide as defending champion which spot you want in this snake draft order. One, two or three. I will take number two. I've got I split my each team up into three tiers. The ones I feel most confident in that a middle tier of like I feel confident, but not as is the that first group and then everybody else. And there were four teams in that top tier for me. So I will take the second pick to guarantee that I get to. Well, you're not guaranteeing it. Oh, yeah, because you got it unlikely. Yeah, right. That's okay. I feel good about it though. Okay. EJ, you and I had the same record. So let's do you want to do one rock, paper, scissors, shoots or two out of three. I just wanted you to be a gracious host and let me pick. Come on. That's a chance of that happening. Rock, paper, scissors, do you have three? No, let's just just straight one. Straight one. Rock, paper, scissors, shoot.

7:11Both hold on. Audio, scissors, shoot. Okay, both through scissors. Rock, paper, scissors, shoot. He sticks with scissors. I go rock. This, this, this proves my wife's idea that I always win in rock, paper, scissors. Mmm. Oh, I'm going to let you go first, EJ. I really don't want to go first. I was really hoping I didn't have to go first. Laramy Tuncil. Hmm. I feel fine about that pick. I do. You should not. Man, I really was not expecting to go first. I thought I'd be able to get to under the radar. Yeah, that's what I was hoping for. I was hoping to get. All right, I am going to take with the first pick in the spread your wins and fly draft. I'm going with the under on the Atlanta Falcons. Okay. I do not feel good looking through the Atlanta Falcons. Which is seven and a half. Yes. I had it in six and a half and I still wanted to take it. So that goes to show you. I brought through a bad start. How did you have the wrong one? I sent you all of the numbers. Because I did the prep before you sent the numbers.

8:12I wasn't going to call you out for you. I sent an em late, but I was working all day yesterday on this. Okay. I think it really speaks volumes that I went into my prep on the Atlanta Falcons and you guys know I'm like a huge strike London fan, huge B. John Robinson fan. Not as big of a fan of Kyle Pitz is maybe my predecessor, but I like him as a player. And I still came away just feeling terrible about where that team is at. Obviously the quarterback position speaks for itself. I think that they are just in for a real rebuild. That defense was fun last year, but they're really banged up. They're missing a lot of people in the past Russian particular. I came into this hoping I could make an argument for this team being like a fun, plucky seven or eight win team, honestly eight or nine win team to get the over. I couldn't get there. I feel bad about this team going into the regular season. I think the case for the Falcons is they play in a bad division. They have a relatively easy schedule, 25th in strength of schedule according to the latest Danish numbers. And you're just hoping that like if you believe that Kevin Stephansky is bringing competency

9:15to the coaching staff, that's enough to juice them. I'm with you though. This was one of my top tier. I would have gone under as well. They're also you mentioned that a fun defense. One of those ones where they were seventh and takeaways, but 23rd and success rate. So there's maybe some reversion coming there. What was your thought on the Falcons, Fran? Yeah, I definitely was leaning under here on this one. I was they were not in my top tier only because of what you mentioned about the schedule. I think Danish does a great job with the strength of schedule that he puts out. And so I definitely lean towards that. A lot of those things are baked into the number. Yes. I do that. Now, this is a team that the number was seven and a half last year. They went eight wins. They were nine and a half the year before. They went eight wins. Like they have just been meet the fighting Jeff Fisher's for the last couple of years with the coaching upgrade in that division with the weak schedule. Otherwise, that's what kept me from keeping them in my top tier. But there was a quarter back this year. They are. That's what we mean. Like the vibes have been great. Yeah. I kind of think that there's a good chances. It's like a three or four win team.

10:16So I do agree this is an under the last thing I want to say about the Falcons is this is what happens when you build you go through a rebuild without prioritizing the premium spots on your roster. Like you have a bunch of fun players at that like the periphery, but at the spots that matter, you've got nothing. And then you know, the bottom can fall out of that really quickly. Four X Eagles. Johan Dawson, Alamaday Zikias, Zidaria Smith and Sydney Brown. Most Eagles coded non-Eagle. Palpeth. Yeah. We've talked. I've got a lot of time taking my call, Peth. Let's go on. All right. Over to you, friend. So I'm going to go with my top pick here. Cleveland Browns. The under. So right now the numbers are five and a half. I really like Andrew Berry. I think that he's a really good general manager. I think that they've drafted really well the last couple of years. There's a lot of talent on that team. I want to like Todd Munkin. I do think that there's like a Bruce Arian vibe there. I do think that there's, you know, there's a lot to like about that. About the roster, about the operation.

11:19Do I think that Munkin is an improvement over Stofanski? Not necessarily. I don't think they upgraded a defensive coordinator either. So I think that you've got some downgrades on both sides of the ball. The end of the day, like, do I have faith that the Sean Watson and Schitter Sanders are going to win six games? And no, I don't. Now they have a very easy schedule. They had the third, fourth easiest schedule from Danes. The second fewest air miles traveled when you look at just in terms of how often they're getting on a plane. Here this year. So it's not a taxing schedule. The number two youngest team in the NFL, according to our friend Jimmy Kemsky. Last year, the four youngest teams all hit the under. And just six of the top eight hit the under. Okay. Now, a little bit of a one year anomaly there, but it's just something that I thought I felt like was interesting. Yeah. I mean, you trade away your best defensive player. You have Alex Wright on injured reserve. I just I don't feel great about that. This is when we're some of the under the hood numbers are, are, are leading over the ones you talked about. They were seventh and adjusted games lost last year.

12:20So maybe they'll be healthier. Their defense was unlucky last year, third and success rate, but 20 second and takeaways. But I'm with you. Like, that was a gym shorts defense that have miles Garrett that defense. There's no way it's going to be as good. Monk in is really given like substitute teacher one year coach kind of vibes. And the biggest thing is the quarterback situation is, is really gnarly. So it wasn't in my top top tier, but I would have taken the under. If you told me grand grand, you did ski was the head coach there in one year, that would that would not shot shot. I kind of like their skill group is the only I'd say for the question. You know, when I went through the, you know, shout out to the two deep, they give you a really good visual of the lineup. I was like, I could talk myself into this like, Hodgepodge offensive line with a young, exciting skill group like Denzel Boston has gotten a lot of buzz at a camp. I really like casing conception. You know, coming in, coming out of the draft there, but the quarterback thing is really tough to look at. It's a toxic situation. And then even if it eventually resolves itself, it's like, how can you feel? How do you feel about your door sanders eventually taking that job over, which feels like an

13:20eventuality at least? Most Eagles coded Browns, the combination of Harold Fanon and Emmanuel McNeil Warren, the two guys who could have been the Eagles second round picks over the past two years. And surprisingly, the Browns are one of the two teams that have no ex-Eagles on the whole roster. That is surprising. They've been the connection. Yeah. All right. I was glad I was able to get, I had one, one A. Okay. See if it's from glad I'm able to get it. Okay. And that is a franchise that is leaning on the cell of competence in a new head coach. Yeah. And I'm not buying it. You look at the staff he's put together. You see the energy he's bringing to the team meeting room. We've got one of the dumbest people you've ever seen in your life as part of the core on offense. They got a pretty boy loser for a quarterback. They've got relatively tough schedule to 11 toughest. It's notable that I have no idea.

14:22I thought I knew it wasn't you said the last part. Way seven and a half wins. Yeah. Given the offense for the New York football giants, their quarter, their wide receiver can't even get on the field yet. Thunder on the giants all day long. This is a bad organization and John Harbaugh ain't saving that. You literally, you took the spot I have in the draft and then you took the second team I would have taken if I, if everything fell my way. You had the first pick. You could complain about that. I had the Falcons first. I had the giants as my number two team and my first year. A lot of the reasons you said, although Jackson Dart has ascended into pretty boy loser quarterback for you. Oh, yeah. That would have hurt me a little bit there. Big time. Yeah. I got he was not the first one. He was not the first one that came to mind, but you say it though. I'm like, yeah, he's like, I didn't know that he's got labelled as pretty boy. I agree. Yeah, I agree. They're young offensive nucleus is way more injury prone than you would ever, you would ever feel good about going into a season. Malik neighbors Jackson Dart, Camp Scott, Andrew Thomas.

15:25Yeah. They played 60 snaps together last year. It's like the, the sixers from Matt and he's going to fix it. Right. I take that. That's unlikely staff. John Runion Jr. Their most eagles coded non eagle. My second pick between two, should I factor in which one is more likely to come back to me? No, I'm not going to do that because what I'm going to do is stick to the brand here and Cowboys over. Yep, Cowboys over. That's not what I'm picking. It's funny. We both thought that is that is that would be on brand, but there's something that's even more important to my brand. And that is the fact that in the year, 2026, after having seen what this decision did to the Philadelphia eagles, you look at the set and you see the fact that the Carolina Panthers have roster in week one, AJ Dylan on their team.

16:30There's no way they're going to win seven and a half games. Their season is already over. I'm glad you made the playoffs. But if that's how you're approaching football this year, you're done. Panthers under seven and a half. All right, I have a question. Can we throw flags later? Do we have to throw a flag now? Oh, I forgot to mention our last challenge again this year. No, the flag that we, we each get two challenge flags. You get two. Okay. And against the pick that someone has taken, you do not get to save them. You have to use them as the pick happens. So if you are thinking about going over on the Panthers, you got to throw it now. It's a little early. I don't know that I'm willing to necessarily stick my neck out this way. I did have them as an over. This is a team where, look, the number seven and a half, they would have hit it last year. So I would say it's not a high number. I don't, obviously that division is not great. And I've got a couple of other teams there.

17:31I'm not, I'm not as high on. I don't think they're going to win 12 games. No, I wouldn't think it would win nine. Right. Yeah. A lot of the juice and the way the markets have been on the under and agree with you. But I just, I have a sneaky feeling this team wins like eight or nine. You throw on the flag. Yeah. He's not going to do the flag. Can he pick it? AJ Dylan, Dylan Phillips and John Mechie. The X Eagles. Pretty good. It's good about this was a tougher Eagles code in one. But I'm going trevon mary. Okay. There you go. I'm going to keep this going. All right. Yeah. I mean, 19th schedule, 19th toughest. They're probably going to be somewhere between six and nine wins. But I'm taking the under. I'm going to get spicy here. Oh, no, you know what? I'm actually not going to do this because I actually have an idea about it. All right. I'm going to go. I only have one over in my top tier. Okay. I'm going to use it here. I'm going to go Detroit Lions. Ooh. The over. Okay.

18:32The number is 10 and a half. So it's not like I'm getting a huge discount here. Yeah. Go ahead. I'll explain. It's not like you're getting a huge discount. But to me, everyone looks at that division and they're like, oh, it's all right. That's a really hard division. But when you look at the schedule for the Detroit Lions, it's not like this murder is row schedule. The second easiest according to Dane is his model that he looks at where it basically takes all the super ball odds and kind of reverse engineers it to kind of stack. You know, what's the future of strength and schedule looking like here? They only have one team off of by this year. They are a relatively young team. But I think what I'm looking at it. Last year, everything went wrong for this team. They were extremely banged up. They were second most injured team. According to FTN numbers, adjusted games lost, second most injured team. They were really old last year. They flipped it. The eighth youngest team, like I mentioned, they were two and five in one score games. They fired their offense accordion very early in like October last year. And I think Drew pet sings a really good fit with what they've got going there with Dan

19:35Campbell and the culture that he's tried to institute. One of five teams that have over eight days of positive net rest. And that's a thing that's a Warren Sharp figure in terms of like, you know, if you look at, you know, all right, you're playing a team coming off Monday night football and you're playing on Sunday. That's an extra day of rest. Like they are one of the few teams that has a lot of positive net rest over the course of the season. I was looking at a piece from Bill Barnwell from ESPN, the Detroit Lions, a bunch of games where it's just like man, like everything went wrong. We remember the game against the Eagles where they go over five and fourth down. They had six trips into Eagles territory. They came away with just nine points on those on those drives. A last second win against Pittsburgh got overturned by pretty tiki tack offense of PI call against Almanra St Brown. I remember that game from last year. They had five fumbles in the loss of the Vikings. All five of them went the Vikings way when you had your third string quarterback in the game. So like you had a lot that went against you. You were extremely banged up. Now, some of those injuries are lingering into this year.

20:36But I've got faith in the Detroit Lions to kind of keep this train rolling. So for me, I will take the over here on the lines. I'm with you all the underlying stuff points towards this being a bounce back season. It's just at the number. It's high number. Yes, it prices that in. Yes, I agree. I agree with you. I agree with you. I think it's going to be there. It's going to be an interesting game to watch. Yeah. Decisive in their Terry Arnold cut. I like that. Yep. Yeah. Carmically. Rock, yes, in. Most people's code guy. Yeah. Temple gag. High school wrestler. Yeah. Okay. How many form Eagles to Vontan Maddox and Devon White? Vonta, I think starting. Yeah. It's a much more line group of former Eagles right there. All right. I don't think Vonte is much more lined by the time he left. Yeah, he was. You think so? Yeah, I think I'm still loved to Vonta. Even if it was more like. It's too bad that his body is breaking down. No, I don't think people were sympathetic to a Vonte by the time he got replaced by Cooper

21:37to Jean. People were like, get this guy out of here. Okay. I feel. I feel like, yeah, we don't need to argue about this. All right. I get two picks. You two picks. Yes. I'm going to take two overs. I'm trying to do more under this year. I'm not trying to be an optimist, but two teams. I feel good about. I was surprised to see the overunders where they were at two quarterbacks I feel good about. And two offenses overall that I feel good about. I'm going to take the Los Angeles Chargers over nine and a half first. I feel very good. And I was hoping about that. About the social media quarterback Justin Herbert. The reason he's a social media quarterback is because he is usually very good in the regular season. And I feel especially good about. Charlie Collar unlocking the Los Angeles Chargers. All of a sudden I don't feel so bad about losing this one. The bigger the bigger point is that I left guard they got. So we got two call. I was she could starting, but you know that's that's not cool. I'm mentioning the fact is on the bench. It's not even mentioning the fact that Mike McDaniel is there.

22:37I'm Mario Hampton back healthy. I think that this offense, especially this run game, is going to be really, really good. And I think that's going to unlock things for Justin Herbert. I've got more questions about their defense and obviously they've got the fourth heart of schedule in the league by Danes' model. But overall, like it's they went 11 and six last year. I think that they have a can they've an argument to make that they're going to improve off of last year, not not regress. Picked an old in the first round. Really? Throw on the flag here. Wow. This is a team that chronically underachieves in terms of like we expect them to make the big jump. And yeah, they all they hit the over consistently, but they always fall short of what the big expectations are with this team. Number four and a half. It's not going to happen. But I know it's not like you expect them to be below 500 this year. They have the worst rest edge in the NFL. We're in the Warren Sharp. And of the of the teams last year that had like that poor rest edge, it was a large majority of them hit the under tied for most of the NFL this year and facing teams coming off

23:40a buy. They face four teams coming off a buy. You have two new coordinators. I think it's a downgrade at defensive coordinator. Now the new guy that's coming in, he was the defensive coordinator at Western Michigan last year. And that was his first year coordinating a defense. He has worked with Harbaugh and with Jesse Menter in the past. But we know that sometimes that does doesn't always equate to a nice, easy pass over, especially in year one. This is a team that's always banged up. And what have we seen so far this summer? The injuries continue to creep in along with this team. So yeah, I'm excited about the offense, but this is a team that the injuries always seem to find them. The first round pick they took, he's always banged up as well. It key mezzador. This is like 75 years old. Well, that's right. Yeah, to me, I liked the under here with the charger. So I was this was a team I was waiting on to throw flag. I have a hard time saying that like I hear you on all this stuff. They're going to be two wins worse. They're going to have two extra losses from last year. After what they've done this off season, I feel good about what they've done. What have never thought about what the Ravens last year, what the Chiefs last year.

24:43I had the Ravens like it happens. It happens. OK, good one. You get another pick, EJ. All right. I am going to go with another quarterback that I feel good about for an over here. And I think that the conversation has swung too far for this team. And therefore, I'm going to take the New England Patriots over 10 and a half. I feel good about the soft fence. We solve them up close, enjoy practices. I think I understand the idea of the Super Bowl hangover being real, especially coming off a Super Bowl loss. But I was looking through it this morning. Five teams have had a 14 win season and made the Super Bowl since 2021. Four of those five won at least 11 games following year. I think that this offense, the Patriots offense has gotten better. Obviously with AJ Brown and my boy, Romeo Dobbs, 15th hardest schedule. So kind of right down the middle. I feel pretty good about where the Patriots are going this season. And I think that, you know, maybe they'll regress a little bit off of 14 and three, but 10 and a half, I feel good about that line. Really easy schedule last year.

25:43And they were the healthiest team in football a year ago. So I do imagine there's going to be some regression there, but that might be baked into the number. I think it is. I mean, if we go on from 14 and three to 10 and a half, I feel like they can, they've gotten better. It's another team where like you're expecting some regression, but the roster is better. A lot of prime time. I had the under here with this team too. So yeah, I thought about it, but I didn't want to throw two flags on you and two turns. So let's hear about. You know, two flags. I thought you only have one flag. They get to. Okay, so flags. Yeah, I'm taking the under. All of the reasons that we just talked about that they were the healthiest team in football last year. You go to the Super Bowl, everything that comes with that. I just I'm telling it that they're, they're offense impressed me. Their defense did not when we went there. I'm sure that AJ Browns have a very productive season. I just, you know, the schedule, the schedule, easiness from last year, all of it come back on this year. Yeah, but they're 15 this year. It's not like it's not like they went from having one of the easiest schedules to one

26:44of the hardest. And again, they've gotten better offensively this year. And they were really good in the regular season last year. That's fun. Yeah, I just I think that all of your points are reflected in the number already. A 10 and a half is all very high number. Yeah, but again, it's like I expect them to still be a very good team. Yeah. All right, over to your friend. I guess we should take a break, huh? Oh, that's a good point. Good, good call out from Lizzie. We'll be back in two minutes. Where in my expinity purple here today and just, you know, thinking about big questions of the world. Like, what if? What if you could have the same Wi-Fi reliable, intelligent Wi-Fi for the same price for five whole years? Well, that's where the Xfinity 5 year price guarantee comes in. Imagine Wi-Fi that makes everything in your home work together that finds and fixes problems

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28:48off in the right ride at a price that makes it an easy. Yes, thank you. And the difference at Elkins? Not like those other car dealerships. We had dread going there. Gonna be such a rig of morale. They're gonna try to add all these extra fees. Rip you off. No, no, no. No running around at Elkins. No back and forth. Just real brothers making real deals every single day. Elkins Chevrolet, real brothers, real deals, and a whole lot of honking good service, Route 73, south of Marlton. Back in the PHL Y Eagles podcast, time now for the hand your dealt presented by our friends at Bet Park, Park's Casino. We're gonna do a little all city square off here. Oh. I want you to tell me which of the quarterback head coach combinations you would most want. Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott, and Brian Shottenheimer, or Sean Payton and Boniants. No offense to Michael LaFlaur and Jacobi Preset and our PHNX brethren, but they're not

29:53making this one. No. Um, distant fourth. But to me, there's a distant one. This is easy. This is Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. I think I'd probably agree, but yeah. I think you could make the argument that you just want the best quarterback in that group. And that would be Shottenheimer and Dak. Yeah. I don't really want to pound the table for Shottenheimer, at least not yet. So. Yeah. I mean, you can make a case for Payton too. I'm sure that I'm sure the DNVR people would yell at us about Boniants being underrated. But I think I think I probably agree with Chicago. Yeah. Chicago for me. Chicago it is. All right. They'll do it for the hand your dealt presented by Park's Casino. Since we blew through it the first time, we're going back to break. You don't want to get one pick in first? Let's get one. All right. One big. So we'll finish the third round. All right. I got it. So I told you I had four teams at the top of my first year. And I've gotten two of them so far. And I've got two left. So it really comes down to who do I think you are less likely to take here.

30:55I'm going to go with an under and it's a really low number. I'm going to go with the Miami Dolphins. At three and a half really. Yeah. Which I like that's. I'm picking this team to win three or fewer games. They have the third hardest strength of schedule. According to Danes, they travel the six most air miles this season. They have the third worst rest edge in the NFL, according to Warren Sharp. They're the youngest team in the NFL, according to Jimmy Kemsky. This is a note. I actually saw this from Jason Fitzgerald from on the cap yesterday. The Dolphins active payroll this year currently stands at 188 million. That's nearly 68 million less than the next closest team. 129 million less than the NFL average. This is not a real team. Yeah. No, it's extreme. That's like it's by design. Like this is this is putting their best foot forward trying to move on from some of the sins of the last regime. But while there are some numbers that might point to like, oh, you know, like they were really injured last year. And you know, they had some things that kind of bounced their way.

31:56It's a really low number. I just this, this team's going to be picking one or two in the draft next year with two or three wins. I find it hard to believe they're going to win more than that. The only thing is that like I think Maliquilis is kind of like a volatile could have some upside fun games. He could, but and the number is so low. Since that's why it would not have been a top-tier one for me. But I mean, you're speaking truth. The only thing with Maliquilis is that like the exposures we've gotten to him over the last couple of years, everything has been like, all right, like good game script. You know, we're leaning to the run game and we're just going to kind of like he's to you throw 15 past attempts at game. That's not going to be the case with this team. They are going to be playing from behind offense. So yeah, I felt good about this one. I have to play ketchup on the spiritually Eagles players. The dolphins. The answer is Chris Bell. Oh, yeah, triads. Loved Chris Bell. The answer is they have so many actual ones that start the it's harder. Tommy DeVito, of course.

32:57I've been in the Chargers trail. I heard a song about Tommy DeVito. What's up on a time? I am going to I agree. I have a group of hell. There's a part of me that wants to stick just just I want just nothing but others just be a hater through and through. But there are a couple of overs. I like. I will take one of them now. Okay. And this is a team that I expect to not be very good, but the number is low. I think this is one where they are benefiting from some semblance of a competency bounce. They were pretty healthy last year. So that's going against it. And the schedule is relatively difficult. Okay. Six artists. So, but the number is five and a half. Okay. And I'm excited to see the quarterback when he plays. The Melvin is giving them. Wow. Actually, better than you might expect from a placeholder quarterback. I think they can be competitive. I'm taking the Raiders over five and a half.

33:59I have always loved Brady too. Yeah. True. That's true. Mark Davis. But yeah, I trust that Brady will do whatever takes to cheat for them to get over five and a half weeks. I had them in my third tier. LinkedIn want to call it. You think they're way you like them on their over? I had them. I had them over, but I didn't feel good about it. I mean, the real reason to go over here is they've got three. If you look at the ex-egels on every roster, these are three lovable guys. Nicobie Dean, Thomas Booker, Patrick Johnson. That's a core that gets just seven wins on their own. And Christian Ellis and Cam Latu weren't going to be a, the, the, the, the, the nine. Yeah. The title. Eyes of all ships over there. They were a disaster on offense last year. So, you know, go from that to having Clint Kubiak, you know, to stabilize that. This is the most unbope pick ever. Michael Mayer, the Eagles coded. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Of course.

35:00All right. Now we'll take an actual break. I have another pick to start round four when we return. Big news. We get to welcome draft Kings on board as a sponsor. The ph.l. Y family. The weight is over. Football is here and draft Kings is on. And this September draft Kings is giving all customers the opportunity to get boosted every single game Bay. That's right. Every game day, all month long draft Kings customers can get a profit boost. New draft Kings customers sign up with code ph.l. Y spend just five bucks and get $200 in rewards within 21 days. That's code ph.l. Y in partnership with draft Kings. The crown is yours. Gambling problem called 1 800 gambler 21 and over Pennsylvania only eligibility restrictions apply $50 and none with robber bonus bets issued every seven days via click to claim for 21 days bonus bets expire seven days after issuance. One football boost per customer maximum bet limits and restrictions apply tokens expired the end of the final select game each day when offered terms at dkng.co slash offer limited

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37:01Download the game time app today. Back on the pho. I'm not going to be a podcast. I am up the start of round four. And although I'm a hater. I might. We'll see. Another. I think we do it. Uh, this is a team that was third and offensive success rate last year, but 17th in turn offers. So you're hoping for a little bit of a bounce back there. Tough schedule. Seven toughest. Vegas juice is on the under. Here comes. But I think I only need four words to tell you. Let's pick. How about them. Cowboys give me the cowboys over nine and a half went off brand. Stay on brand here. I think they I think the cowboys are I'm betting on the defense not being the worst in football Christian Parker, uh, bringing some competency there. I think their offense will continue to be very good.

38:02Cowboys nine and a half. I could see them win in 11 games. Okay, with that. They, uh, they were seven and a half last year. I'm both picked the over. They went the under. Uh, they were 10 and a half year before. Also were the under that year. Uh, and now it's like, oh, yeah, they're they're sneaking up on everybody. Second most prime time games this year. Um, take the under all day. Got a year. Throwing it. No, I'm not throwing it here. I'm saving it. I got a few teams. I know I'm going to be I can use the flag. I'll throw it. Yeah. I mean, I also would have had the over and clear the throw of flag. I mean, they were in my they're my second tier where I could see it going both ways. I could see the defense not be I think it has become like popular to say like, oh, yeah, like their defense will be better. They'll get the average defense isn't always predictable. You know, I think Christian Parker is a good coach, but yeah, I could see this team struggling. The toughest thing that you didn't mention is that this division, like I also would have the giants under. We'll see about the commanders. We see how we all how we all feel about them. But overall outside the Eagles, I just don't feel good about the division making it that

39:06tough for them. But yeah, I'll throw the flag on the Cowboys. Donovan is a Raku. Eagles coded. Yeah. Over to you. My last pick. You got all top tier. I got all four by top tiers. I hope it's not all I want here. This is a team that is perennial. Super ball contender. Is this my other one? This is my last one in my top tier. I do this. Fred. I'm not sure. Is ten and a half. Oh, it's not mine. They went ten and oh and one score games in 2024 on their way to the Super Bowl. Then they completely flipped. They went one and nine last year. So they're like, oh, all right. They should bounce back a little bit. They're coming in with their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, coming off a season ending injury. They've got the second most prime times, prime time games is here tied with Dallas direct correlation to a, a just of games lost. They've got the fifth worst rest edge in the entire NFL. Their number one receiver multiple knee injuries and it had to rehab the last one in jail. Their left tackle who missed a lot of time last year is now suffering through a back injury

40:10that seems like it's a legitimate issue going into the fall. They added nothing offensively outside of Kenneth Walker, who was a good player, but is that offensive line going to be healthy enough to be able to get him going? Are they going to be able to lean into the run game at a high enough rate to be able to get him going? They were extremely, they were extremely healthy last year outside of Mahomes. The defense was extremely healthy. A defense that lost their, their two starting corners and are turning over four new starters out of five in the secondary this year. Give me the under on the Kansas City Chiefs 10 and a half. That's not what you're going to go with. You had me go in there. Other team, not quite the same level of perennial Super Bowl contender as the Kansas City. I'm selling that one. I like that. Yeah. I mean, I would have also taken the Chiefs under there. I'm the more I was sitting with it at last night. I'm like, I feel really good about this. A high number. It's a high number. Yeah. I mean, it's tough to ever bet against a quarterback of that tier, but to your point, coming off an injury and everything else. I think you did a good job of arguing it.

41:10Thank you. Not throwing the challenge flag on that. You boy, Garrett, Nuss Meyer. Mm. Most Eagles coming. Yes. Yes. All right. With my first pick, I'm going to take the last team I have in my tier one. Actually, yeah, the last team in tier one, I'll take one on the top of tier two here. I'm taking the 49ers under 10 and a half. It's 9 and a half. 9 and a half. 9 and a half. Okay. I'll still take it. I feel a little bit less great about that. You got to send the numbers earlier next year. All you have to do is cross reference. Yeah. It's not that hard. I was doing other stuff. You had to show that two o'clock. We had stuff going on. Anyway, 49ers under 9 and a half. Is this pregnant? Yeah. You may have heard. I think this team has the 10th hardest schedule according to the day Niz is metrics. I actually thought this was going to be like an epic rant from you, Fran, like all of the different things that could go wrong for this team, a very injury prone team that has injuries going into the season. Again, the two deep shout out to them when you go through the lineup, the amount of

42:12questionable going into the regular season at key positions really jumped out to me. Didn't think that they had a, I'm fat, off season. I think Brock Purti, we kind of know who he is in terms of. He's a good quarterback in the right system with the right people around him. I kind of feel like if things don't go well, I don't have faith in him being able to drag him out. So it's a big regression from 12 and 5 last year to under 9 and a half, but I'm taking the 49ers under. I think that they've got some implosion potential here. I mean, the substation is the only conspiracy theory that Nick Boasa doesn't believe in. It's still very, very effective with this roster. You look up and down. I mean, the vibes could not be worse. Ricky Pearsall looks like done for the year. Mike Evans, he's got, he's got soft tissue injuries already. Usually when he's a Tampa, that usually happens mid season. He was able to get a jump on it this year in the summer. George Kittle, not healthy. Dre Greenlaw, they brought back to, it would be a starter because they traded de winters, not healthy. Fred Warner is coming off the injury. Mike Hel Williams still hurt. I mentioned earlier, Abou Quarancro is likely to start because they only have one healthy

43:14pass rusher right now going into week one. They're about to board a flight to get down to Sydney, down, down to Australia for the game that's in eight days. They lead the NFL or going to lead the NFL in most air miles traveled this season. You have the Kyle Shanahan car accident. Your owner is getting arrested in the middle of training camp. CMC is coming off 400 touches last year. I guess it's complicated. 400 touches last year. Is he going to stay healthy? Yeah, this is an easy under. I said the numbers, the number number. Yeah, it was a 10 and a half and dropped to nine and a half in the last. Like three or four weeks. Yeah, I have. There's what I had like one small little thing for the over but yeah, the vibes are the viable. I knew for him was going to have a rant about this. That was right. Actually, a tough one to get a spiritual eagle here. I went to the amateur Lenore. Why? Player who we've like every time it's like, oh, the eagle's going to pick on that guy. Doesn't really happen. Just the players in been the eagle's that guy's.

44:14There were two teams who are very difficult. That's very good. All right, last team for me in the top tier here, actually. It's not coming in at the end. I'm going to take the New Orleans Saints. Believe the numbers over seven and a half? Yes. Okay. So they went six and eleven last year. They have the easiest schedule in the NFL, according to Dana's as metrics. They're in a division that like it's hard to really feel great about anyone in that division. I think that'll play into their favor. I don't feel as good about the other team that a lot of people have. They're in that division. So to me, it's a two win improvement with Tyler Schug in a seven second year with Kellin Moore. I feel okay. And I'll be honest, I kind of like having a Brandon Staley defense as part of my line up here. I was blown away to learn that they were six and defensive success rate last year. They got really good. Down the stretch. Yeah. After week 10, they were averaging 17.8 points per game. A lot. And the injuries started to take away. So there's hopefully a bounce back for them there. Yeah.

45:15I don't love that they've already had the injuries that they've had, but yeah, actually, I picked the over. I would have taken the over to it, but the quarterback makes it like I'm really going to hang them on that. I don't know. Tyler Schug. Schug. Yeah. Apologies. This one was an easy spiritual legal. Cool aid in McKinstree. Yeah. Very good one. I like a cool aid in McKinstree. Okay. All right. You go. You will do two more and then we'll go to break. That's our last break. They don't have to worry about it. Yeah. I'm going to do this because I'm afraid that you're going to you're going to pick them ahead of me. This team, the number is nine and a half. They're in one of the let one of the divisions of football that people point to and say is one of the weaker divisions in football. I'm going to go with Houston, Texans and Demiko Rines nine and a half. Like I said, the number was the number last year they hit the over. They were nine and a half the year before that. Demiko hit the over. So he's always outperforming expectations. This is a team that could have potentially the best defense in football that has only

46:16gotten better. To me, when I look at the vibes of like that offense, we all remember the poor performances from CJ Stroud like in prime time and some of those moments certainly the playoffs and then the game against Seattle last year in prime time. But the rest of the year was not as bad. I the only thing that has me a little bit concerned is that the skill talent like is it quite good enough. You have the injury to Jaden Higgins. As David Montgomery going to be able to stay healthy, they remade that offensive line again. But to me, like they don't face a team coming off a buy. They've got good rest edge again, going to point into that number from from Warren Sharp there. To me, this is a team that I feel good about betting on just because of that defense and Demiko Rines. Okay. Good one. I was worried you would do it. It's time for my next pick. But eventually I might have gotten there. Marielasseter is the. You just go to the player one. I will close out by asking if you guys have you guys want for widow's Bay? Yes.

47:17Oh, no, I haven't finished yet. I haven't finished. I'm not a good star. Not spoilers. Good star. Good star. Good conversation. But the conceit of widow's Bay is that you know, these people live on an island that is doomed. It is just inescapably evil. There are moments where it feels like they've overcome and you've you've crested and you're into a new world. And then it turns out actually, you know, you know what, we are just cursed. And that is the life of the Washington commanders. You think it's just because you have Daniel Snyder as your owner. Oh, we get a new owner. We go to the NFC championship game. Life is good. We are in a post cursed world. Not with an Epstein associate as your owner. That team, the, what was the word that Nikki Jeff ball, used to describe the offense in the recent joint practice.

48:18The offensive line was, it was a great word. It's not inoperable. The offense was inoperable. Their offensive line is a disaster. The quarterback is made of paper mache. It's a fine Quinn, no matter how many times it turns its hat around, it's not going to get this defense to be any younger. Seven and a half. Yeah, I don't see it. It's a high number. I also had the under on them under on the commanders. The only case you can make is Jane Daniel's bounce back season, but it's hard when you look at what's around them to really buy that. Yeah. All right. And we took our last break. We're back with much more to come. We are through 15 picks. We got 50, 16, where to go? Fuck off. Big news on the die hard front. And we are not talking about a new installment of the franchise with Bruce Willis. Yes, it is a Christmas movie. No.

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51:22I'm going to take it over. A team that we have you and I, Fran have been on the same side as saying this quarterback is good. Despite the commenters disagreeing your youth bill the other way. Nine and a half wins for the green Bay Packers. I feel pretty good about this team winning 10-11 games. I trust LaFlore in the regular season. I trust the offense. Sure they've got no Sean Manian. Sure they've got no done Taving Wicks. But they do have spiritual legal. I'm going to throw the flag here. Really? Does that mean I can't allow to both throw the flag? I'm also throwing the flag. I was just trying to really let you finish. Yeah, I, I felt, I like Jordan Love as much as you guys do. But Tucker Kraft and Michael Parsons both coming off ACL injuries. It gives me enough pause where I don't, they're in a tough division as well. I don't know. I wasn't as convinced. Yeah, it's a, it's a young team with multiple questions along the offensive line.

52:22Multiple questions in the secondary. You've got Michael Parsons coming off the injury. You've got Tucker Kraft coming off the injury. You've got Jonathan Ganon stepping in for Jeff Hathley. He's going to have to get GG. He's going to have to get for God. You're stuck on that. He's going to have to get creative to create like hands up back. That's a good look. Yeah, to me, this was a clear under. I don't, I don't love the vibes. Come from everybody as much as I do like LaFlora and, uh, and Jordan Love. I, I don't think they get to double digit wins this year. You got Tom Brady, KK and Jonathan, Jen JG. Those are those are your TV JG and KK. Hmm. That's your lineup. Hmm. And Shady and Shady. He likes Shady though. Don't you like Shady? I have no problem with Shady. Yeah, he's not, he's not. He's like, I don't like Maddox. Jack Prescott at all. That's okay. All right. Over you. All right. I'm up. Uh, I never said by the way, Washington's a trail on birth. Hmm. Hey, Jay Brown, place. Um, all right. I'm going to go with another under here.

53:22Uh, and I'm going to go with another just a bad team. Tennessee Titans under six and a half here. Yeah. Um, I think I'm a, I'm kind of like low key excited to see Robert Salah what he does with his defense. I do think he's going to make them feisty. The personnel was brutal last year. You're boy. I think it's a ball. Yeah, they get Kendrick Falk. They, they've spent some money on that side of the ball. They've got some other young pieces there that I think that, that'll fit and that'll be nice. I don't think that's enough to get to seven wins. The vibes this summer on the offense have been brutal. Just why, you know, going through and just seeing like the cam word dropbacks and just watching it has not been great. Um, I'm not, I can't put my faith in Brian Dable. Uh, so I'm going to take the, uh, I'm going to take the under here on the Titans. Yeah. I want to, I want to like cam word. I do too. I want him to be, I want him to be fun. Yeah. You can certainly, we've seen many times a second year quarterback, making a leap to carry a team to some degree.

54:25But yeah, the idea of buying Robert Salah as some guarantee of competence. Yeah. I don't buy it all. Same goes for Brian Dable coaching the offense. So this is one where I would like this to be a feisty team that's in our lives over the next couple of months. That's fun to watch. I don't really buy it. Hmm. Fifth youngest team in football as well. Again, a lot of the young teams last year, uh, all were the hit the under as opposed to the over. All right. Mitch Trebisky is their spiritual legal. Not great. Mr. Biscuits. All right. With my first pick, I'm going to take another over. I'm going to go with the Denver Broncos over nine and a half. Again, I pulled the stat for the, uh, for the Patriots earlier teams that win 14 games, even teams, you know, obviously this team didn't make it to the Super Bowl, but in teams that make deep postseason runs, they, they more often than not still get double digit wins the next season. Yeah. And I know the Broncos, I've heard all of the arguments that the Broncos are going to progress. The injury, luck, some of the improbable comebacks from last year, even that equals game last

55:28year comes to mind as a game like, you know, most more often than not, you're not going to win that one. But I think that the number already reflects all that. So I think it's hard for me to envision them not getting double digit wins. I feel good about the over there. I don't love bone X. I just don't, um, but screaming in terms of takeaways. They were first in defense success right last year. Hmm. 26 and takeaways. Yeah, they're going to get more turnovers this year. Uh, so maybe they're our fewer one score games. I think that's, I think that's, uh, in my head, that's the right pick. I want to bet against Bonyx, but I think it's a good pick. If Bonyx doesn't get hurt in the divisional round, they're probably in the Super Bowl. They probably beat the Patriots in the conference title game. Um, I agree with you. I, to me, like, this is a team that hosted the AFC title game. We're not saying they need to win 14 games again. They just got to get double digits. Uh, yeah. I had them as an over, um, that mean they added, they didn't lose anybody on offense. And they add Jalen Waddle and they lost a couple of pieces defensively, but nothing

56:31like that's, uh, moving the needle for me. It's a good. Yeah. I like that one. All right. You get an idea. Next pick. I'm going to go in a similar, with a similar philosophy here. I'm going to take a coach with a quarterback that I think at the very least can be average. Can we get to average the Minnesota Vikings over eight and a half? I am drafting Kevin O'Connell with the 10th easiest schedule, uh, a coach that has proven that he can do more with less. Yeah. I'm not sitting here telling you, Kyle Murray is going to be on a lead quarterback, but I think he's an upgrade on what they had last year. And I went nine and eight last year. So I know it's a tough division, um, but I'd still, I think the Kevin O'Connell is a type of coach. Maybe he's going to ascend into a Mike Tomman conversation, eventually where it's like, there's not a lot of talent, but they're just going to have a winning record. It's very clear that they had like a lot of inner term, term oil last year. Yeah. Yeah, because of the JJ McCarthy decision, uh, letting Sam Donald go, they fired Cuesta Dofamensa, like not even immediately after the season, like in the, like two weeks after it was very awkward timing there.

57:33I mean, this hit, this, the over, the over what hit last year at this number, right? And it's a, it's a clear upgrade at quarterback, even if like, Kyle Murray is in a top 10 player at the position. So, uh, yeah, I had them as an over as well. And I'm not saying they're going to be like unbelievable, you know, I see CDP saying that they've never had a top 10 offense. Look at the quarterbacks that they've had. I think that they will be solid offensively. Andrew Van Ginkle. Yeah. Jonah Ellis with the, uh, Broncos over to you. Because they're important things until. Yeah. Um, well, this was one of my losses from last year. Uh, the same number since the 90 Bengals at 10 and a half. I took the over Joe Barrow gets hurt. Um, and they obviously fall short of that. Uh, I love it. This is when we're, there are a couple of of them where it's like, man, that's the number. I know. And half that's the thing is I'm going with some high numbers and overs and some low numbers on some unders. But the heart wants what the heart wants. I've heard, uh, said on the show number numerous times. Third easiest schedule, um, from day Nis, uh, when you're looking at the schedule here, Joe

58:35Barrow's healthy. Last time he was healthy, led the NFL and passing yards and touchdowns back in 2024. The defense really improved in the back half of last year. I former boss, uh, running that defense and now golden, um, they added some more pieces. Obviously, I'd extra Lawrence. Uh, I had to throw that in there. Cause shout out to them plows. Um, we'll finish this screen in. Funny time. Go ahead. Um, yeah. There's just I, I feel good about this team. Uh, to me, when I'm looking at the, at the AFC North, sneaky team, I think, I think, I think I'm, I think they might win the division. Hmm. I think I might like to win the North. We'll say that doesn't seem crazy to me. Yeah. Tenth and offensive success right last year, but 27th intern overs. Never 10th and offensive success. Yeah. Oh, man, I feel great about this. Uh, Chase Brown, yeah, obvious. Yeah. Ah, we were too call. That's an interesting one. My buddy Joe will be happening here. You take the over on the, um, Bengals. Uh, all right.

59:36I'm sorry to do this to the Einbinder family, but this one is, oh, no. How on earth could you look at the New York Jets roster? I mean, go through the depth chart. Yeah. These are their projected starters on defense. Joanne Briggs, Harrison Phillips, David Agnameda, Kingsley Enigbari, Joseph O'Si, Jamie and Sherwood, Demario Davis, Azaria Thomas, Brandon Stevens, Jarvis Brownlee, Minkofits Patrick and Andre Sisco. I count one player, Minkofits Patrick, who would start on the Eagles, uh, or deserves to start on, on most teams. The offense, uh, you know, the tackles are interesting. Can you build a whole team at a tight ends? Probably not. Geno Smith, we're betting on it's not, it's not to be mean. But how is this number five and a half and not three and a half? The number is a little higher than I thought. That's it. When, and even thinking about as you're going through the roster, it just sounds like a mediocre team, like it just sounds like a team where I'm like, yeah, they're

1:00:38going to win six games under five and a half. Hmm. I actually have an over on the, I'm out of challenge. I wouldn't, I wouldn't have thrown the challenge flag on the anyway. Um, but yeah, now that's a, that's a tricky one. I mean, the first team in NFL history and not recording interception last year. And they also had 14 fumbles on defense. They picked up four of them. Like it was just they, the, the turnover regressions absolutely going to come back the other way. Yeah. Um, and I think the, the offense is stabilized. I mean, Dan, from a, like the, like the, geno Smith stabilized. Well, you go from what they were last year, like Justin Fields was a complete crapshoot. And he was, obviously wasn't the start of the entire season. Um, to go from that to geno Smith who's coming out of that Raiders, uh, we're not, are we in overtime? Yeah. That Raiders shit show, uh, from last year, like, you know, I, I don't think that he's a top 10 quarterback, but if he's the 16th best quarterback, that's world's better than what they got last year. Hmm. I would like them to succeed just because I like Aaron. They are the other team that has no ex eagles on their roster.

1:01:39I'm sorry. And because of the I'm behind her family, obviously, yes. But Mason Taylor is the spiritual eagle. Uh, um, okay. My next pick. This is a little bit more up in the air. I am going to go. I'm going to lean, I'm going to lean on my, my haters side. Uh, a team that was fourth in takeaways on defense last year, but 19th and defensive success rate, a team that is relying on reconfiguring. A quarterback, coach, combination that led to a composable divorce, uh, and a quarterback who was more concerned about chemtrails than opposing defenses, give me the under on the Pittsburgh Steelers at eight and a half. Yeah, I had the under here as well. Um, I mean, this is a team that consistently found ways to have that winning record and get in order to obviously hit the over under Mike Tomlinson. Now we get to go, you know, test that theory here. In this one, uh, yeah, I just thought it's, I don't have great feelings about what

1:02:43about this team. Now I don't think they're going to be a three win team, but I don't see a 10 win team. So yeah, but I mean, well, they're not a three win team. If Aaron Rogers is healthy, right, but he's 48 years old. Like, you know, I think a three win team of Mason Rudolph or Drew Aller is a quarterback. Probably. Yeah. Maybe over to you. This is tough. The team's remaining. I've got a tier right here. You feel like the teams remaining for those keeping score at home. The Arizona Cardinals, three and a half, the Baltimore Ravens 11 and a half, the Buffalo Bill's 10 and a half, the Chicago Bears 9 and a half, the Indianapolis Colts, 7 and a half, the Jacksonville Jaguars, 8 and a half, the Rams 11 and a half, the Seahawks 10 and a half, and the Tampa Bay Bucks 8 and a half. I still have teams left in my second tier, but they're the teams that I can really go either way on more so. Nick Herbig in Darnal, Washington, where the spiritual stealers, Eagles dealers.

1:03:45I'm going to do it. The Super Bowl favorites, the LA Rams, 11 and a half wins is the is the number. Give me the under here on the ramps. Oh, really? Number two hardest strength, the schedule according to Dana's. Number two, most air miles, a lot of that's carried by the fact that they're going down a Sydney here next week, 24 hours for the game. Tied for the third most opponents coming off by this year. Number one most prime time game, seven, seven prime time games this year, direct correlation to adjusted games last, which that's a little bit of issue for me when I look at a team that has old players at very pivotal spots. Anyway, I've talked about this before. Last year, we were terrified to pick this team in this exercise, because the quarterback was in a trailer after practice every single day, getting God knows what done to his back to make sure that he can get through the season. He was able to get through it when he played an MVP level and he was awesome and that offense was fireworks and it was really fun to watch.

1:04:47Can that happen again? Like, I don't know. Like, that's to me, it's very fragile, a little bit of a house of cards there. The other thing is that very rarely does the team that is labeled as the super team come in and meet the expectations. Now, the number is 11 and a half, so it's not like it's 13 and a half. Yeah. But it's not like this team has always met that expectation anyway. Like, they have snuck into the playoffs as like a nine win team, eight win team in years past. They're number 27 and rest edge. Like I said, they lead the NFL in primetime games. They had really good turnover luck last year. Give me the under. I'm going to take the rams here and look, maybe they win 10 games or nine games. I might also have the egg on my face, so maybe they do meet expectation. But for me, I'm going to take the under here against Sean McVeig. I don't feel like throwing it. It's a good one. I make a good case there. When you are a team that is built on stars, yeah, your capacity to withstand injuries if those guys get hurt is more difficult.

1:05:48Yeah. It's not fun to just say they could get injured, but they could definitely get injured. It could also just not work the way that they envision it. It's a lot of big names, a lot of big personalities, but we've seen in Philadelphia, like dream teams sometimes don't pan out the way you expect them to. Yep. But they do have Dylan McMahon. It's true. They don't have Camelot. The manual Forbes is of course the Eagles coded player on that team. She's over to you. All right. I'm a starter by the way. I know. Honestly, make me want to throw the flag. So you guys being such haters has really left me with a lot of overs. I've noticing. So first I'm taken. I feel like, well, let's see. You so far have five overs and two unders. Fran has three. He has five unders and three overs. Yeah. And I have the same. Okay. Yeah. So I'm kind of getting boxed into some more overs here. That's okay. I'm an optimist. I'm going to go with the Jaguars over eight and a half.

1:06:50I had them as an over. I thought about using them last round. Yeah, they were third. Well, it's funny. I would have I may have gone Rams, but the other one. So I'm glad I didn't. They went 13 and four last year. I don't feel incredible about them going 13 and four again this season, but it's a low number. It's really low. It's a really low number. There's a lot of it. There's like a suckers back. A lot of negativity, basic, and casual. Yes. Really weird. They were really healthy last year, I guess. But I don't understand why that number's so low either. I don't know. It does make me nervous. I was that's why I was scared to pick them because the number it does feel extremely low. And I'm not even like the biggest lean pulling like a believer. I mean, he's done a great job the last two years, but yeah, that's a good pick. Second pick here. I think it's time we finally take them. The reigning champs. The Seattle Seahawks. The numbers 10 and a half 14 and three last year. They have the fifth hardest schedule in the NFL, according to the days.

1:07:52It's a really talented team. When we've seen first hand that Super Bowl hangovers are real. I don't feel amazing about this, but I'm going to bank on them to be a talented team and find a way to get 11 less. I've used both my flags, right? I wasn't going to throw it there. I was just confirming because I had to make it over. It wouldn't have upset me if you threw it because I couldn't get it on the other. You were taking the over. You threw on the flag? No, I was thinking about throwing it if you took the under. I just like Mike McDonald a lot. No, I like him a lot. He's a lot of fun. Yeah. So I'm not going to I'm not going to be challenging. Drew Locke is of course their spiritual legal. And Jaguars was Dennis Gardek. All right. Buffalo Bills. Make a coaching change. They promote the offensive coordinator. Joe Brady to be the head coach. The numbers 10 and a half with the juice on the over. I'm going to take the over here. Do I really think that Josh Allen's going to lose seven games?

1:08:52Yeah. I don't think so. To me, like there's a team that consistently stacks wins. New defensive staff completely, but I'm kind of excited about what they're going to do defensively. So yeah, to me, they're not facing a team off the buy. They got a lot of prime time. They're just a little concerned by they don't face a single team off the buy. So yeah, I like to I kind of like the bills here. Okay. The over. I like that too. I don't want to like, you know, cheerlead Joe Brady, but I believe in Josh Allen. My second tier is now wiped out. DJ Moore. Yeah, we're in the Eagles code now. Bill, I will start by taking the worst team on the board. A team that has the hardest schedule in football. And however, was the most injured team in football last year. Yep. This is the Arizona Cardinals who are three and a half. A team that is incentivized probably more than anybody else

1:09:53to get the number one overall draft pick. They are desperate for that. And because they are such a vectless franchise, I am betting that they are going to be too incompetent to not win enough games. Oh, wow. You're taking the over. I'm going to take the over four or five wins for the Arizona Cardinals. I think Michael, Michael Forism is probably going to be a bad head coach. Yeah. But Jacobi Per set is like, maybe get you through a game. I think they're going to be really, really putrid. I'm just betting on them not being able to accomplish the mission of being the worst team in football. It's a hard list to be on. I think Michael Bidwell might be like on the bottom five, maybe bottom three, worst owner in the league. I don't know if you're going to go all sports. It's for it. Yeah, right. NFL, bottom three for sure. Well, that's, I mean, I know. But that's how that is. Because I think there's like a couple that come to mind right away.

1:10:56Yeah, I mean, like, you know, it's three and a half and the juice is on the under. The juice is on the under now. Contract battles. Now they got it done with the receiver today with with Michael Wilson, but they're still battling with the left tackle. Johnny Vrennibles are our guy down at a pH next. Great point. They have a ton of cap space. You're not paying anybody like huge money. Why are you cheaping out on the young players that you do have that you should be excited about? I was like, you guys know, I do a lot of stuff with like looking at the pro contracts. And they have so many players that they pay like below the threshold of starter that are starting for them. And it's harder. That's like, oh, like talent, but it's also like, no, they just, they're just cheap. That's a cheap team. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I, but that's why this is like, this is a major league, the movie situation where the players in that locker room are going to revolt and win two games in week 17 and 18 just to screw over the terrible owner. That's that's what I'm betting on. That schedule is brutal. Yeah, brutal schedule.

1:11:57Maybe the hardest schedule on the NFL. Yes. And it's it's hard day. And it's Isaac say a Molly was going to lead the revolt. Yeah. It's going to be great. All right, my last pick. Oh, wow. This is our last pick for spots left. Are the Ravens at 11 and a half, the Bears at nine and a half, the Colts at seven and a half, and the Bucks at eight and a half. Yeah. There's one that I should do by my numbers. And there's one that I want to do for the show. Through the one for the show. Yeah, I'm going to do the one for the show. Oh, no, wait, unless you're going to do what I think you're going to do for the show. I didn't really believe this team was as good as they were for most of last year. And I don't believe they're going to be that good again. But the number is pretty low. There's there were seventh and offensive success rate last year, but 21st in turnovers.

1:13:00The more important thing here is, you know, I got the positivity bunny behind me. And I'm thinking about the Ospreys and how much of a good time we had meeting the sickos, spending time with the sickos, getting to know the sickos. And so on behalf of Dinkleberg, the dink man. Oh, I have got to take the over on the Indianapolis Colts at seven and a half. The Gush is there and he will allow them. The spray all over the NFL. So you take the over taking the over on the coast. I really thought he was going to go with the with the bears over. So that we could finally get nudity on the show if you win this competition. Over to you, Fran. It's came down to two teams. Anthony Richardson is of course the spiritual. Eagle. Jacobi Prasette with the gardenals. CDP got it right.

1:14:00Shout out to CDP. We got it. We got it. When I'm going to read the super chat that we have before. Yeah, super chat. Now Lindsay, I don't know if you know this. We haven't even talked about this. You get the last, the team that goes unpicked. And you get to decide over or under when I came and like interviewed and watched a show. You guys did this show last year. So I was so confused about what the show was about. I was like, they haven't talked about the Eagles once. I get themself into. Yeah, exactly. I was thinking you guys were like leaving me the jets. As this went on. I should we should have done that. What is the super chat? J is CDP. Which ex-carnel will have the most success this year in the NFC North? Tyler Petzig Organin. Petzig. I probably would go Petzig too. Yeah, best situation. And the dink checks in. Says game respect game brother. The gush push pushes on for the shoe. For the.

1:15:01I think you sneaking in at the very end of the gun. Yesterday for the show right before the website. Pushed a hat with the other cool. Just funny. That was very funny. All right, Fran, you got you got your last pick. And so yeah, and I have my challenge flag to throw still. So I had two teams here and I was really torn about which way to go. I'm going to go with the Tampa Bay box. Are you taking over? The number is eight and a half. Build to it. The number is eight and a half. A lot of their key guys were hurt last year. It's not a good division. I'm going to take the under. Mike Evans had the ability to stay there. The franchise legend. One of the best players in the history of the team. They offered a more money than 49ers reportedly. And he chose to go elsewhere. To me, that's like a canary in the coal mine situation. You got the Baker Bayfield contract. Still not still unsettled. Vita Vaya, they end up getting a getting that settle. But all they did was say, we're going to make it a one year deal.

1:16:03And then you're going to go away next year. This feels like a team that is just kind of putting it on ice and put it sticking into neutral. Yes. And we're going to see what happens at the end of the season. And they've got an easy schedule. They don't have to travel too far. There are some things when you look back at last year. You say, all right, like, you know, they were, they were really injured. So maybe they'll bounce back. I just don't like the vibes coming out of Tampa. I'm buying into New Orleans. I mentioned I would have taken the over on Carolina. Give me the under on the box. Yeah, that's a good one. I would have taken the under as well. I'm disappointed with how many overs I have. I've got I got I got it split by five, but I guess with the flag. But yeah, I'm with you on the bucks. Even the way they're treating Baker. Like, yeah, as you said, it's unserious. I'm not as I'm not as hurt by that. Well, I know, but just every single person. Yeah, yeah, the organization. Yeah, I think it's a I think it's the vibes have not been great. Yeah.

1:17:04All right, EJ, it's up to you. The Ravens at 11 and a half for the Bears at 9 and a half. Yeah, I don't feel great about either of these lines. I would have loved to take the Ravens over 11 and a half. So big number. I'm going to take the Bears under. I'm going to I'm going to plan for a little bit of regression from the Bears. I don't feel great about either of these numbers. I think these numbers are both spot on. I'm going to pick the Bears to win nine games this year. I have to throw the flag on the over for the Bears. Would you have taken me over for the I would have taken the under as well. This is the this turnover wise. This is the team that have screaming at you. They were turnover. Stuff was in San last year. They were first and takeaways, but 30th and defensive success rate. I I I like the Ben Johnson. Offensive. Everything is going on. I like Caleb Williams. I think he can get even better. I believe in them in like theory, but the numbers are screaming the under.

1:18:05That's I mean, the juices on the under. Did you hear Ben Johnson began a camp saying like we're the the one regression candidate in the NFL. I love Ben Johnson. Like it literally like just like a good building a lab for someone that I would really, really enjoy as a head coach. There is a lot to look back to last year and say, okay, this this team is is for gazing and I they're not they're not going to have that that same level of success. All the last minute. Paroics not even just from Caleb Williams. Like we had the crazy like last second plays in game when you walk off touchdowns from Caleb, but you know, they had a walkoff field goal block for that would have been a game where similar to the Jordan Davis play. You had an onside kick that you needed to be able to succeed with a third and 10 to beat Green Bay. They let JJ McCarthy drive the field and take the lead with under a minute left and then Devin Duverne takes a kick 55 yards or something like that back to set up a game winning field goal. Like they just had so much break their way. I couldn't bring myself to take the to take them though because I just I got a lot of the numbers

1:19:07baking that ends like the number is only nine and a half. Yeah. I it's this was a tough one for me to pick on to pick. It's it's it's it's not my favorite thing to ever pick against like a coach in quarterback. I believe in yeah, but the rest of the team fill us a lot of guys on defense. I'll take the under. All right, Lindsey L.O. Reed. Everybody's rosters here while you adjudicate whether you want to take the over or under on the Ravens 11 and a half. EJ. You have the oh and she's got it. Bang. Lindsey had tip. Unbelievable. Same page. EJ's got the under on the Falcons of seven and a half. The over on the Changes at nine and a half. The over on the Patriots at 10 and a half the under on the Niners at nine and a half. The over on the Saints seven and a half. The over on the Broncos 9 and half. The over on the Vikings 8 and a half. The over on the Jaguars 8 and a half. The over again on the Seahawks 10. And a half and the under on the Bears at nine and a half. Through his two Challenge flags to go under Cowboys, 9 and a half and under Packers 9 and a half.

1:20:09Fran under the Browns at five and a half consumer marketing in December Insurance calculated of the event but a constant hold or a laser up. Over the lines that 10 and a half . Under twenty 50 Under Panther is seven and a half. Over Raiders five and a half. Over Cowboys nine and a half. Under Commander seven and a half. Over Packers nine and a half. Under Jets five and a half. Under Steelers eight and a half. Over Cardinals three and a half. Over Colts seven and a half. Under Patriots ten and a half. And over Bears nine and a half. All of that is rendered moot. If Lindsay can nail the eleven and a half Ravens over under. Oh Lindsay I could agree.

1:21:12I had the under on them as well. I feel like the same about. You couldn't agree more. You don't want to even win them. Take it. It's because I like the other ones more. Okay. I feel the same about Lamar almost like the same as Herbert. Like he's like a name that like hasn't done anything. Couldn't name one other person on the Ravens. And he is fading the Baltimore Ravens eleven and a half. First strength of schedule last year according to Dana's started one and five clawed their way back. Much easier strength of schedule this year. But man, I just not buying it. I'm not buying it. Travis Jones. Garrett Bradbury and Josiah Trotter working backwards. The Eagles coded players. I didn't mention. What a through line that was for the whole episode. Good stuff. All right. Good to work, Professor. We love you.

1:22:12Anything else? I'm going to start my document for next year. We do not have a show tomorrow. Because we did a show on Sunday for the cuts. But we do have tomorrow premiering a nice lengthy conversation. Eagles preview. We didn't talk enough Eagles on this episode. Well, guess what? We talk Eagles plenty on an episode that's going to be at on your feed. And then we hope everybody enjoys the long Labor Day holiday weekend. We are back on Tuesday to hit the ground running. It's the first week of the regular season. We got some new stuff going on show wise that we're excited about. We're going to be back over in the other studio. We're going to be gangbusters. So thank you, Fran. Thank you, EJ. Thank you, Lindsay. Thank you, everybody in the chat. Comment below what your favorite picked. If you could only make one pick this year on an overrun there, what would it be? And we'll talk to you on Tuesday. As always, we love you.