Some of the Biggest Things We're Thinking About Heading Into 2025

Today in the podcast: Highlights from our 2025 US Equity Market outlook, in which we reviewed the top 10 things we’re thinking about as the new year comes into view. We won’t go through all ten, but are going to run through some of the more important highlights regarding our broader market call.

The big things you need to know: First, our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target is 6,600 – that’s our base case; we also run through our bear case of 5,775. Second, sentiment is modestly constructive on a 12 month view but also makes the case for a near-term pullback. Third, we don’t see much room for further P/E expansion but our valuation work still helps us see how stocks can move higher next year. Fourth, US equities may soon lose their appeal relative to bonds. Fifth, the US economy is at an important crossroad from a stock market perspective. And sixth, the political backdrop presents both tailwinds and possible headwinds for stocks.