Should We Believe Trump’s Truth Social Threats?

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2:00You We are back with another episode of the Kyland's loan show and I have a ton to talk about today. The president keeps making threat after threat after threat on his true social account and of course a lot of the threats recently have been directed towards Iran and so there's a lot of reporting as to is Trump going to attack the Islamic Republic isn't he I am going to try to go through break it all down so everybody understands what's going on the public statements what's happening behind the scenes. And so that's a big part of today's show is Iran also why have some updates on Cuba because that could be the site of Trump's nets intervention.

3:29And so we have seen several times now I have one of the posts here but there's a good dozen or maybe two dozen cents the end of last year of Donald Trump saying we are threatening Iran and if the Iranians don't do what we want I have put a massive Armada off their coast and I am prepared to order an attack to overthrow the government of Iran. And so Trump has taught tough in the past on true social we've seen at times say with Venezuela when comes to Maduro Trump does follow through on those threats we have seen other times say with Greenland where we ultimately see Trump end up backing down and so with Iran I think we really have to get into the weeds get into everything going on to see if the if Trump is prepared to order an attack on the Islamic Republic. So once start off with this story this is from Middle East I published last week U.S. ways precision strides on Iran on Iranian officials as military build up surges sources say and the article explains the U.S. is weighing precision strides on high value Iranian officials and commanders who deem responsible for the deaths and protesters a golf official familiar with the discussions told Middle East I.

4:53So we have seen a few of these reports now from various sources Israeli sources American sources Arab sources that Donald Trump wants to deliver a decisive attack in Iran that seems to be the key ward and what decisive appears to mean is powerful enough that will lead to the overthrow of the Iranian government now it doesn't it seems that the from the reporting and all the details that it's not necessarily they think the strike will fully overthrow the government but it will create enough chaos and disorder in to run where street protesters can then come back out and we know from the latest protests that there was a lot of foreign backing U.S. involvement particularly Israeli involvement from the Assad propping up their proxies in the MEK that would like to try to seize power and so it seems that one possibility is that another one they're talking about partition Iran is a country in 90 million people in the majority I think about 60% are Persian but there's also a substantial number of a series in Iran including the supreme leader and the president I think there's about 10% population that is Kurdish and

6:10just like in other areas of the Middle East there are a little bit autonomous in Iran and then of course you have different separatist groups that is it as this more along the Afghan and Pakistani border with Iran and they are connected to terrorist organizations and things like that and so there are people in the U.S. and I think in Israel as well who would love to see nothing more than not just the overthrow of the Iranian government but the destruction of the Iranian state where you have fashions of a series and Kurds and Persians buying for power while you have these other jihadist groups kind of running around sewing chaos and killing people why would the U.S. and Israel want this because it means that Iran can no longer stand up to the United States can no longer be a thorn in the American side I mean if you look at the war in Ukraine for example Iran has started a trading partner for Russia they've given Russian at first just drones and then

7:16access to drone technology that Russia has used heavily in Ukraine Iran sells oil to China and so for all these reasons the destabilized Iran will be good for Israel in the United States so I think we have a real fear that this is going to happen. Now another kind of path that they're looking for is this is from the Jerusalem post as U.S. forces build up Trump way is living it right Iran's regime and the Jerusalem post reports that the administration is examining the possibility of implementing a naval blockade on Iran that would prevent it from exporting oil and they note that President Trump previously took a similar step against the major regime in Venezuela and a few weeks later launched an operation aimed at capturing President Meduro and his wife and so look here you know you could kind of just see this all developing where Trump has basically two options but the two options lead to the same result the regime change in Iran

8:24and so I think it's very clear that this is the goal in Washington and Tel Aviv now the only question that they really have to answer is it achievable and at what cost will it be achievable I think there's a real risk for the Israelis and the Americans that they take a massive swipe at Iran however that you know they put a lot of military assets in the region and so Iran's going to have a lot of American and Israeli targets to fire at and so if you take a massive shot at Iran you're unable to overthrow the government Iran uses their massive stop pile of ballistic cruise missiles and drones to batter U.S. bases around the Middle East to batter Israel Israel a very small country not just in terms of land mass but also in population a lot of the people that live in Israel are either immigrants themselves or you know first or second generation is a fairly new country and so look if you know drones and Iranian missiles are falling out of the skies at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and Haifa that may encourage alive Israelis to emigrate and this could be a real problem for Tel Aviv

9:34and so it's not as simple as you're saying we're going to do this regime change there actually has to be thought in Washington and Tel Aviv of if this it's not like with Maduro where if you unsassessfully are unsassessful in the operation against Maduro some Americans who are on the ground may have been killed American helicopter maybe shot down over Venezuela it's a nightmare public relations wise for Donald Trump but it's not as if Venezuela is going to start lobbying drones and missiles into the United States or at U.S. bases in the region after that happens but Iran has the capability to do it and they said time and time again that they will do it and so now the real question that we have to get into is Trump prepared does the U.S. have the military assets in the Middle East to do this so this next article I have exclusive U.S. military tells key Middle East allies to prepare for attack on Iran and this is published at Dropside News

10:39and they have a quote from a former senior U.S. intelligence official who consults for Arab governments who said this isn't about Newts or the missile program this is about regime change and you know just making it very very clear really trying to drive at home they say the thinking in the Trump administration according to the source is that successful strike on the Iranian leadership will be followed by Iranians returning to the streets to protest leading to an overthrow of the government and so right there laid out very clear that the U.S. government once regime change in Iran the next article I have this one from the Wall Street Journal before any strike on Iran U.S. needs to bolster air defenses in the Middle East and so what the journal explains is that the U.S. military could conduct limited strikes on Iran if the president were to order attack today U.S. officials say but the kind of decisive attack that Trump has asked the military to prepare would likely prompt a proportional response from Iran

11:45requiring the U.S. to have robust air defenses in place to protect Israel as well as U.S. troops the military has already has air defenses in the region including destroyers capable of shooting down threats but the Pentagon is deploying additional tab batteries and Patriot air defense bases to where U.S. troops are stationed across the Middle East including Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar and so I think as we stand today this is probably a sign the U.S. isn't fully prepared to launch a war with Iran the idea that we still need to move Patriot and Dad batteries all around the Middle East to Kuwait to Jordan to Saudi Arabia that's going to take a little bit of time these are very complex systems they require hundreds of troops to operate them and so not only are you putting a lot more American in harm's way within range of Iranian missiles around the Middle East and you have to kind of figure out the logistics of all that you also have to set up and deploy all these systems

12:49so I don't think we are necessarily looking at imminent attack based on the current U.S. force posture in the Middle East but you can see they are getting ready now for people who say this is just all a show this military build up is just for Donald Trump to be able to threaten the Iranians to be able to fear Manga and warn against the Iranians that hey these people are very dangerous so we have all these troops in the region and then he's going to demand the Iranians make all these concessions the problem with that is this military build up is very expensive and it has now involved removing American military assets from other regions where they were going to be used I think it was F-35s from the Vermont National Guard or some Army division were moved from Latin America to the Middle East those F-35s may be used to Bahmeran, maybe used to shoot down Iranian drones coming back in

13:52but you can see Donald Trump is starting to peel off military assets from other areas of the world where he's interested in using military power and deploying them to the Middle East I really think this suggests that Trump isn't just bluffing he isn't just playing around there's reporting that inside the White House there's a belief that the Iranian regime could potentially fall very soon and really the debate is just around how to go about this you have some factions I think this is more Steve Wichoff, the Treasury Secretary of Scott Bessett who are arguing that the Iranian economy is really weak the people are ready to rise up and overthrow the Iranian government and so the US just needs to a little bit of a push to topple it over and that could be the oil blockade there are others and this includes really shockingly and disappointingly Vice President JD Vance who are arguing to Trump the Iranian regime is weak you've already made threats and you have to follow through on those threats

14:55so this is all just highly highly concerning now I do want to go back to that drop site news article now the one we are referencing earlier and they add in that article that senior military officials have informed the leadership of a key US ally in the Middle East that President Trump could authorize a strike on Iran this weekend so that would have been Saturday or Sunday and of course that didn't happen but just to know it does seem that the White House is putting out signals to the Middle East to our allies to hey Trump could order an attack at any time now this is where I think the most reasonable timeline is this article from the new Arab Israeli army chief predicts US attack on Iran within two weeks to two months and so this is IDF chief of staff Amal Zameer and he was just at the Pentagon by the way just on Friday I believe him and some other top Israeli officials were at the Pentagon

15:59and he said that US attack on Iran within a time frame ranging from two weeks to two months and he said that to Israel Army radio and he says that this means that imminent attack in the coming days is unlikely but not impossible but unlikely and I do think that assessment is right based on the US trying to get more military assets to the Middle East I think they have eight destroyers now within Sankhams range so this is those that are a part of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group plus a few more each one of these ships could carry a lot of interceptors and that I think is a big thing right now Trump made favor using V2s and other heavy bombers as well as like a Tatsum Marines launching Tomahawk and other missiles at Iran as far as offensive the Tats go while a lot of these military assets that we're talking about moving to the Middle East right now

17:01that that interceptors, the Patriot interceptors, the warships, the fighter jets are all about shooting down incoming Iranian drones and missiles protecting US and Israeli forces from Iranian retaliation you know this should be a big warning sign to Americans by the way about how dangerous this war is going to be for US troops in the Middle East that the US is deploying so many military assets to the Middle East to protect our troops that are already there it you know is a big sign that they are expecting missiles and drones to be raining down and risking the lives of US soldiers now the other kind of paradoxical part about this military build up is Iran doesn't maintain weapons that could actually strike the United States of America and so Iran doesn't actually threaten the United States but if we go to war with Iran, Iran will strike at American military assets in the region and we've added probably tens of thousands of more soldiers now

18:04they're all within the range of Iranian drones and missiles because of this military build up there's five to six thousand sailors on the Abraham Lincoln each destroyer is another three to 350 sailors each that battery is a hundred soldiers dozens for each Patriot battery all the fighter pilots and support you know soldiers to operate the fighter jets that we've deployed deployed to the Middle East now are all in harm's way if Donald Trump starts a war and so again you know in that sense this is all very paradoxical now to maybe shine a little bit of optimism on the situation this is the best argument I've heard for why we might not see a US strike on Iran this is John Karyaku discussing the potential for a US strike on Iran with his co-host Ted Raw on their podcasting program

19:05okay so I actually don't have that but what John Karyaku explains is that you know he spoke with several well placed Arab princes so these are people that John Karyaku has met developed relationships with in recent weeks and they told him that not only were all the Gulf Arab states lobbying Trump against going to war against Iran which you know may have some impact right these states like Qatar and Saudi Arabia they invest a lot of money and Trump and Kushner and Wake Offs companies and so certainly they do have some influence in Washington however all the influences really piled up with the Israel lobby and the question is does the Israel lobby want war with Iran and John's point and what he heard these princes say was that they don't want war with Iran right now during the 12-day war in June Israel used a substantial

20:09portion of its missile interceptors its iron dome and its arrow interceptors and those take years and years and years to replenish and so by now you know they've replenished some of them but they still don't have enough if you remember at the end the 12-day war after only 12 days you know in eight days a week of this war Israel was already complaining that hey we're having to kind of part ration out our air defense systems we can't just cover the country and blanket and make sure no Iranian missiles our drones are getting through we have to be selective how we fire these interceptors and if this is a bigger conflict which I do believe it would be Israel would need more interceptors than they had previously not less and so if they don't have their stoppiles full which they do not then maybe even Israel is lobbying against an attack at this point so to add a

21:10little bit credibility to this this was an article from Adcio's kind of breaking down last month when Donald Trump was considering striking Iran and decided not to the title the order never came behind the scenes of Trump's Iran pullback in what they had explained and a call earlier in the day one surprising voice urged caution Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he told Trump that Israel was not ready to defend itself from Iran's likely retaliation especially since the US didn't have enough assets in the region to help Israel intercept Iranian missiles and drones in addition Netanyahu felt the current US plan was not strong enough and would not be effective one of the prime ministers advisers said and so this is all I think possible that this has been resolved now it's possible that Netanyahu now feels with the additional dad Patriot interceptors a few more destroyers a few more US warplanes

22:12in the Middle East that the US is now in a position to at least acceptably defend Israel from Iranian retaliation look Netanyahu is a cold son of a bitch and so I do think he would be willing to have some Israeli civilians die in a war with Iran if he thought it was going to substantially and permanently weaken Iran in the Middle East right so if Netanyahu believes that a war will lead to the fracturing of the Islamic the Iranian government or of the Iranian state or at least the overthrow of the Islamic revolutionary government of Iran and that came at the lives of hundreds or thousands of Israelis Netanyahu would probably pull the trigger on that but as I said before Israel is a small country not a big population and they have a real risk of emigration people going back to the countries that either they came from or that their parents or grandparents

23:13are from if things get a little too hot in Israel so he has to kind of weigh that and you know if he now considers there being enough interceptors of the US and Israel in the Middle East to go ahead and launch that war I think he'll lobby the Trump to launch the war if he doesn't think that they're adequately equipped to defend against an Iranian attack then he will advocate against it I think Trump is probably at least so split right now that he's willing to to let Netanyahu tip him in either direction and I worry that Netanyahu is going to advocate for war especially because the larger US military footprint in the Middle East now will enable the US to deliver a much larger strike against Iran and even if it doesn't overthrow the Iranian government my guess is that the hubris and Tel Aviv and Washington will make them think the operation will likely be successful

24:13now there is another development that we've had today that may signal that a war is not coming or it may be a signal that a war is coming looking at history so this is from why net news ahead of Todd's Israel sets red lines for Trump's envoy Wicoff and so what we heard today is that Steve Wicoff apparently there's been bat-channel developed with Turkey Wicoff is Trump's main envoy by the way and this Turkish bat-channel is trying to negotiate between the Iranians and the Americans now I don't know how well positioned Turkey is to be the intermediary here in the past Russia, China, the Omanis have served as a kind of far more productive arbiters of conflicts between the US and Iran and additionally you know Erdogan the leader of Turkey is always out for something like

25:13he has a very strong nationalist I think he has grand ambitions including expanding Turkey's borders and so I'm not sure the Iranians would necessarily trust the Turks to broker these talks and Turkey has even talked about saying up like a joint nuclear richman program with Iran that was based in Turkey so they certainly have their own interests and motives here and I wouldn't if I were the Iranians I'd be very skeptical but there are some reports that the US and the Iranians could sit down as soon as Friday now Adcio's was I believe the outlet that broke this story and they had two sources that said it was going to happen on Friday and one source that said it may or may not now I want get into one very key thing here and this is in the Ynet article so Israel has informed the US that there are red lines on the nuclear issue including demand for zero enrichment

26:13and the removal of Iranian uranium from Iranian territory but the main concern is that the Americans may ultimately settle for an agreement addressing only the nuclear interests issue while sideline need to others Iran's ballistic missiles and its campaign of terror and support for proxy forces and so there's a lot in this Ynet thing first of all the audacity of the Israelis to come in between US and Iranian negotiations and tell the Americans what our red lines are that's not how this works the Israelis could express their interests to American officials and we could take those into consideration along with the Saudis and the Qataris and the Emirates and the Turks and the Iraqis sure that's very reasonable but the idea that the Israelis would not only feel comfortable influencing and directing American negotiating with the Iranians but actually setting red lines for the Americans

27:16is completely intolerable and we should all be 100% opposed to that this is America's foreign policy how we choose to deal with the Iranians is up to us and the Israelis don't get to dictate the terms that we negotiate to the Iranians on and this is important because the Israeli terms are completely unacceptable they amount to far more than a full surrender right if Russia was trying to impose these terms on the Ukrainians people in America would be absolutely outraged right not only are they demanding that Iran not enrich uranium they're demanding that Iran export all of its uranium they're demanding that Iran not have alliances and ties with other groups in their own region right they're demanding that Iran not have a missile program that could hit Israel that way anytime Israel wants without fear of retaliation whatsoever obviously the Iranians

28:16aren't going to agree to this and so the Israelis are trying to kill the talks now what I first brought up this story I said this could be a sign that we're not going to see a war or it could be a sign that we're going to see a war it's really important to remember that in June the US and Iran according to the Iranians were moving full steam ahead progressing towards a new nuclear deal and then suddenly the Israeli started bombing Iran and so maybe this is a legitimate US outreach for diplomacy with the Iranians or it's possible that this is cover for the US or Israel to start another war on Iran now if that does happen the Iranian foreign minister had some warns words of warning to the Americans so let's roll this clip it starts that would be a disaster for everybody in the previous war we tried hard to limit the scope of war between Iran and Israel

29:16this time if it is between Iran and the US since the US bases are spread all over the region then inevitably you know many parts of the region would be involved engaged and that could be very dangerous our missiles were tested in a real war last time and we were able to you know understand their problems their weak points and their strengths so we learned many lessons from those 12 days of war and I think we are now very well prepared but again being prepared doesn't mean that we want to prevent a war so I think this just really highlights the one less important point that I want to make here and if the US goes ahead and attacks Iran it could vary lead to

30:16Middle East wide war if the US attacks Iran Iran will respond and probably not just symbolically this time by attacking US bases in the Middle East those bases are in a rock Syria they are in Jordan they are in Israel they are in Saudi Arabia they are in Qatar they are in Bahrain they are in Kuwait these are all additional countries that could very quickly be drug into this conflict and of course it's not going to be the entire Middle East Israel and the United States against Iran Iran has allies in the Middle East right if the Iraqi government starts to back and assists the US in striking Iran then the Shia militias in Iraq which are probably more loyal to Iran than they are to bad dad may turn on the Iraqi government we can see a new civil war in Iraq has Bala and southern Lebanon could go back to war whether that's with the Syrian government whether that's with the Israeli government and of course the Houthis in Yemen Ansar Allah have shown to be very effective fighters

31:18and very capable creating a lot of problems for the US and Israel so far but when you consider something like where Yemen is positioned in the Middle East compared to Iran say you know the Houthis they are launching drones at US bases in Saudi Arabia and in Qatar they are coming out whole another direction than the Iranian attacks would be which is going to stretch air defenses and radars a whole lot more in greater real nightmare for the Americans and the Israelis should this war go forward I think it's going to be a real catastrophe I am very worried that Donald Trump has decided on attacking Iran and basically is now just a matter again enough military assets into the Middle East to be confident large number of American troops and Israelis won't be killed in the Iranian retaliatory attack but who knows how messy this gets once they move forward with regime change in Iran

32:19and by the way I think the best option here is that Trump lets for the oil blockade which will probably end up escalating into a war over the longer term now it's not just the Iranians receiving threats from Donald Trump he is still threatening countries within our own region and that includes the Cubans I got a couple of posts here of Trump's recent threats towards Cuba basically saying that the Cuban government is ready to fall and that's one is even more audacious actually suggests that Marco Rubio will make a good president of Cuba which I mean if we're going to deport Marco Rubio and impose him on the poor Cubans I guess as somebody who really just cares about his country first I would be fine with that but that's not the way actually work he'll still be the secretary of state and national security advisor and just the vice-royd leader of Cuba I think Donald Trump is actually I don't know how much

33:19down Trump personally cares about regime change in Cuba but I do think he's convinced on a couple of points here one because Donald Trump is located in South Florida where there are a lot of hispanids who have been in the US for quite some time them their children are all citizens they've done many of them have done very well in this country business owners you know successful members of their community I think Donald Trump believes that they reflect the sediment of hispanids in the United States of America and I don't think that's really the case a lot of people are first generation they're living here illegally are they have family members who are living here illegally they're poor and so when ICE is cracking down Venezuelans in Miami and in South Florida who are the ones who are against that policy

34:19it's the Mexicans the Salvadorians the Haitians in the United States who are being rounded up by ICE and that's a far greater population so I do think Donald Trump believes that if he medals in Venezuela if he takes out the Cuban government the hispanids of the United States are going to suck up their family members brutally through the ICE progress react favorably to him and Republicans I don't think that gambit is going to work but I do think Donald Trump believes that it will and then of course Donald Trump isn't very strong on any of his beliefs when it comes to foreign policy and somebody like Marco Rubio is he really really primarily Cuba I think if you look at kind of the development of U.S. policy in the Middle East and we see this

35:19in a recent Wall Street Journal article the U.S. is actively seeking regime change in Cuba by the end of the year they say emboldened by the U.S. ouster of Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro the Trump administration is searching the Cuban government for insiders who can help cut a deal in the U.S. and so what they're doing is they're trying to isolate the Cuban government from Venezuela they've gotten they've pressured the Mexican government to cut off Mexican oil sales to Cuba so they're trying to create absolute poverty absolute misery in Cuba and then find some people who are willing to go in and they're going into- that's why the Cuban government is looking at which citizens are really all centered around Cuba now. Trump has had some remarks on Cuba in the past few days so I wanted to play a few clips

36:19let's start with this first one You can see from Cuba and what can you be to see if they can hide the- I think we're gonna work into a Cuba. I think you'll be kind and we have a situation that's right back to Cuba that's coming. And then President of Mexico, President Cheyfah was very good. I said, look, we don't want you to do it. Then she's not sitting on it. So what Trump's saying there is that he believes that the people within his government believe the Cuban government is in a weakened position because they've been cut off from other countries in the region and it's right for an overthrow in American regime change. Well, it's possible that that is the case. We've also seen the Cuban government being able to weather very hard situations and maintain control even when poverty was very, very severe in Cuba, particularly after followed the USSR. So just, you know, they always get

37:19these rosy predictions about how effective sanctions are going to be. It was going to cripple the Russian war machine. It was going to bring down the Iranian government. Cuba has been under an American bargo for six or seven decades now. And it hasn't caused the fall of that government. In fact, there's a lot of evidence that points to these American sanctions actually create a rally around the flag effect in those countries. And while these leaders may have incompetently ran their economies into the ground, the fact that the leaders could also point to the US sanctions as contributing to it deflates a lot of the blame. All right, Ned Strumpcliffe. Well, Cuba is a failing nation. It has been for a long time, but now it doesn't have been as well at a proper up. So we're talking to the people from Cuba, the highest people in Cuba. Let's see what happens. I want the people that came here that were horribly created by Cuba to be taken care of, to be able to go back and do what they have to

38:20do. You know, they have their family there. They haven't been able to see them in years, many, many years. So I think we're going to make a deal with Cuba. So I think we're seeing Trump believe that he's going to be able to replicate what happened in Venezuela and Cuba. We're talking to high people there, you know, I think he's talking about government officials who may be below the top level. We're willing to cut a deal with the United States to have the leader of that country and any loyalists who won't bend to US wins shipped out and then we'll install a new government power. Of course, in Venezuela, it remains to be seen that this is actually going to be in any way a successful policy, but the Trump administration down Trump seems to be looking to replicate in Cuba. I got one last clip here before you wrap up. We're starting to talk to Cuba. We're starting to talk to Cuba. We're starting to talk to Cuba.

39:20I would like to give a lot of people that live in our country and treat it very badly by Cuba. And they all voted for me and we want them to be treated well. We'd like to be able to have them go back to their country, which they haven't seen their family, their country decades. So I just want to highlight one last time here how cruel this policy is. What they are trying, there's already poverty in Cuba. There's already rolling blackouts. The people there are already suffering, but Donald Trump wants to make it even worse. He believes economic misery among the Cuban people will weaken their government and create a better situation for the United States of America and Cuba. It's just unbelievably awful to do that to an entire population of people who are just trying to live their lives. They have a government that doesn't agree with ours, but so what? The Cubans don't present

40:21any threat to the United States of America. In fact, probably the most serious threat that Cuba presents the United States of America is an economic collapse leading to a mass wave of migrants arriving in South Florida again. That is like the worst possible scenario that could come for the United States, the people of the United States from Cuba. And that seems to be the one that Donald Trump is angling to create here, all because Marco Rubio wants to regime change in Havana. It's absolutely disgusting. Everybody, thank you for checking out the show today. I did see the chat was a little slow. So if you are still listening, let us know that you're here. Be sure you're subscribed to the show, that you're following the show. We're always live on ads and on YouTube every Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday at 4.45 Eastern. And we'll be back with another show on Wednesday. Thanks everyone.