Shelter inflation bias and trends

Show from 06/28/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel kick off the episode discussing recent market trends and political impacts on the stock market, particularly focusing on the market’s reactions to political debates and economic indicators such as housing starts, trade deficits, and GDP growth estimates. Professor Siegel notes the persistent high interest rates affecting housing prices and the soft economic data in various sectors. He concludes with his outlook on the Federal Reserves potential actions in the upcoming meetings. (11:52) Jeremy continues the conversation with San Francisco Fed Research Advisor John Mondragon, who delves into the intricacies of measuring housing and inflation metrics, particularly the CPI and owner’s equivalent rent (OER). They discuss the lag in rent inflation data and its implications on current economic assessments. Mondragon also touches on his research on housing supply dynamics and the long-term impact of housing construction on prices. Following this, Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research joins to share his market outlook for the second half of the year. He highlights the persistent inflationary pressures in the housing market and forecasts a continued bullish trend driven by a potential Fed pivot and credit expansion narrative. Pies emphasizes the importance of sentiment and positioning in market dynamics, and discusses strategic asset allocation focusing on quality stocks and alternative investments. Guests: John Mondragon is a research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. He works on the mortgage and housing markets and empirical macroeconomics. Prior to founding 3Fourteen Research, Warren Pies led Ned Davis Research’s Energy and Commodity strategy. In that role, he built the firm’s commodity-related studies, models, and unique indicators. His research combines proprietary fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends affecting capital markets. Learn more about John at: https://sites.google.com/site/johnnelsonmondragon/ Follow John on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/john-mondragon-250028138 Learn more about Warren at: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/about Follow Warren on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/warren-pies-erp-1b999437