Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 1 Bets - Picks, Predictions & Betting Strategies

0:00This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. The entire draft room groans because you just took the guy they wanted. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league. I'm JJ Zacharyson, host of the award-winning Late Round Podcast. Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. Listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast on the I Heart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. On Big Lives, we take a single cultural icon. People like Jane Fonda, George Michael, Little Richard. And we pull apart the story behind the image, discovering forgotten interviews that change exactly how we see these giants of our culture. We're here for the messy, the brilliant, the human version of our heroes. I'm Emmanuel Jochi. I'm Kai Wright. And this is Big Lives. Listen to Big Lives on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:05The new NFL season is here. And you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61. It is in the name NFL Daily. You'll have fresh content in your feed every day, all season long. That game winning drive, maybe it's her, but maybe it's Gino. Maybe it's my homes. We'll have the highlights. If Fernando Mendoza or any of those rookies are ballin' out, we'll break down the tape, join me, Greg Rosenthal, and an all-star cast of co-hosts as we preview and recap every game. Listen to NFL Daily on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Brett Coleman and I'm Trevor Sikama. If you love football and want to understand what's really happening on the field, check out our show, NFL Pro. Every week we break down the biggest plays, trends, and matchups using exclusive next-gen stats insights and NFL content you will not find anywhere else. Whether you're new to football, a fantasy football fanag, or a die-hard fan, NFL Pro will help you analyze the game like a pro. Listen to NFL Pro on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.

2:12Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Polymarket. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as I am every show by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional, better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how are we doing? You know, last night during the game, during the Seahawks Patriots game, which we're going to talk about for just for a minute, they kept talking about how late in the game, the players are going to get so exhausted because the starters haven't played much during the preseason. I felt like I was getting my legs during the game. Like I'm up way past 9.30. I get 9.30, it went to halftime, I went upstairs, I brushed my teeth, I prepared for bed. So when the game ended, I could go right to bed.

3:12But it was freaking glorious to have the game back. We'd had everything and Simon, Simon, within five plays, we were getting the full drew lock experience, a player we had committed to ourselves, we would never, ever, ever bed on again and get so we got. Yeah, and he saved me and saved me a lot of money because I told you, I've been bedding in the Seahawks for three months, I gave out that stat, whatever it is, since 2001, 33 and 7, now 34 and 7 at home in the first two weeks of the season straight up. And it's like, you know, you don't ever make bets. And then when the quarterback goes down in the first series, you're just always cooked. I mean, we've lived that. So brutal in the three and a half, it didn't get there. I mean, if you're a Patriots backer from last night, you might have used up all your luck in the first game of the year and week one because you should have not covered that game

4:14in a thousand different ways. I mean, the cold back touched down. I think they had second and one. They had like a fall start penalty. Dude, that was second and sixth and then you kicked the field goal from there. And it's like, just all these little things where if it was Sam Donald, they probably roll again by 15 points in. Not going to be too hard on Chad about his Drake May top five take today. Because it's first. He's just hanging fruit in the world. But it's the best part of making list and doing these things before the season where it's like someone like me who knows ball can laugh at people and make fun of them. And people are like, you're going to eat these words. I mean, the amount of Patriots fans I heard from in the first quarter. And for the rest of the game to play out the way it did where it's like, I literally told you guys on the show cover six. The book is out on Drake May. We'll see if he worked on in the off season. And if they could have figured it out. And I think he was over three or over five on past is that traveled more than 50 yards

5:15in the air with three picks. So is it just a Seattle problem for Drake May in the Patriots? If I'm a Patriots fan, that's what you have to hope or is there really the book is out on Drake May and that's the way to beat him, which is you'll let him dump it off as much as he wants. And as soon as he puts it down field, that's when you turn him over. So if AGA Brown's out four to six weeks, brutal, brutal spot for a Patriot team to have. A lot of hope coming to this season and just the worst way, Gapas, we start the year where you're gifted a win on the road in Seattle. And he just totally blew that game. So, look, you could argue, you could argue that the more impactful loss during the game was AGA Brown than Sam Darnold because there were successful moments for Drake May and the first half when he looked like he was Drake May, top five quarterback in the NFL. It's because there were opportunities either directly to AGA Brown, that passing or fear in the game that led to the touchdown.

6:17There was another slant where he was open and made a good catch that led to a first down. There were opportunities there when he went out, it seemed like the entire offense changed. When I was with the Seahawks, their defense got better and better as the game went on. And Drew Lock made just enough falling back, psychotic plays to keep us in the game where every time he threw it. But to me, AGA Brown going out ended up being a bigger deal than Sam Darnold. So, you think AGA Brown's a bigger deal than Sam Darnold getting hurt? I said in the game. I said more impactful. I'm going to disagree that I think Sam Darnold put up 49 points or 40 points against his dangerous defense and what do you put up 13 points? Guy, every time I try to make a comment, you try to make it a case about Mr. and Terpid and what I said. In this game. That's what I'm saying. Of course it does. Drake May was doing really well in the first half when he had a chance. That's what I'm saying. When he said doesn't make sense.

7:18He didn't pass the little yards. It does. It makes sense. It makes sense. It makes it. Simon, he had AGA Brown on the other side of the field. He was a different player without AGA Brown. That was a different offense without AGA Brown. They had 10 points in the first half. What did AGA Brown do that made you think this was so incredible in the first half? Dude, he barely, he didn't even play the whole first half. I know, but you're acting like he was his world beater. I don't know where this is coming from. I'm not saying he was a world beater. I'm just saying the difference in the game to me was much about AGA Brown not playing for Drake May as anything else. I'm not saying Drake didn't play well. Very sensitive about Drake May. I'm not getting it. I'd be a little embarrassed to do this more than top five. This isn't a, I don't think it's going to be enough. Sam Darrell is probably more important than AGA Brown. You're being an asshole and you're purposely trying to misinterpret what I'm saying to win points. That's not the point that I'm making. He's pointing to what I don't get what you're saying doesn't make sense. It's not the point that I'm making. I'm saying in this game at the end of the game, Drew Lock played well.

8:23Drake May did not. Drew Lock had an incredible defense. Drake May lost his best receiver and in the early part of the game, you could clearly see that AGA Brown was having an impact. Whether or not he was catching any balls or not, you could see he was having an impact. As soon as he went out, everything changed for the Patriots and he went out in the first half after they were up 10-nothing. That's my point. Okay. By the way, they're losing team in the last 30 years to throw three picks, take three sacks, commit three penalties, score zero points in any single quarter of any single game. I don't give a fuck about Drake May. I don't even like the Patriots. You sound very level headed right now, Chad. Keep it up. You're on a good start because you're fucking annoying me. This is our Thursday NFL week one show. You're going to hear sharp calls. You're going to hear brass balls. Our underdog and favorites, parlays, Simon's biggest bats, sharp versus square, our discord

9:30grouper of the week winner. This is the episode where we will start to narrow down our final five official picks. Every week we discuss our picks on Tuesdays by Thursday. Simon has gotten an earful from his fellow professionals about what they like. What they hate, why didn't Simon agree with me? I will they bully him. It's time for sharp calls. Who's there? I'm talking. Bring, bring, telephone ring somebody to say it. Maybe what you do with. Yeah, a lot of calls just about, I'll start with the games that we didn't love that people think we're missing here. Let's start the very bottom. Let's start Monday night. People can't believe we're not on the chiefs. That feels like such a chief. Really? Yeah, it just seems like pros versus public, right? The pros are going to be all over the chiefs. The public are going to be taking the plus three or the plus two and a half with Denver.

10:31That's a game we might have a circle back through that. Maybe we've overlooked a little bit. I think we're both just a little squeamish, a little scared off about backing the homes in this first game. Denver getting, Denver is a huge public team this week. So much public money on Denver. Same for this next game. This, it's, you know, we've thought coming to the year the pros have loved the Giants coming in and this is the exact moment you're supposed to back the Giants, right? They're fully healthy. On the flip side, Dallas has not, have a bunch injuries to the offensive line, have a brand new defense with a brand new defense, a defensive coordinator on the road in their first start. And we talked about like Dallas led the league in Plenty's last year. We don't know if they're a well coach team. All we know is they're a great offense. So if we're going to take a stand here with the pros, that's another game we might have to look more into in the Giants, especially the fact you can get plus three now in a divisional game at home. It's very tempting, but those two jumped out because I feel like we really didn't care about them. And that was the most phone calls I got about those two games.

11:33I said, I don't know if me and Chad will come in on the Chiefs, but I am definitely getting more and more tuned into that Giants game. So definitely appreciate the boys calling about that one. I think everyone loves Carolina. Everyone's going to love that one, not a shock, especially a polymarket of plus three and a half Cleveland, place, say, and a half. Another game we haven't talked a lot about. Just an insane number. I think most pros are agree with that that the Jaguars, this is totally based, this is a line totally based off last season. Like giving tons and tons of respect to the Jaguars, zero respects to a Brown team that you know, everyone knows the Sean Watson hasn't played a good football game in whatever is three years, two years, nobody's touching that one. So even bookmakers I talked to are like, can you please come bet this? We can't keep going above eight and a half. So that's the type of game that the books they beg for that money. And the last game, I mean, obviously guys are on the books that games kind of split. The last one though, I really got a lot of questions about that. You know, we're not more into was that Houston game, which that is fair.

12:34I think we both are just, it's just always weird with us and Josh Allen. We get them that Mitchell effect, Luminor. They're right with like this should be an auto smash play. It's Joe Brady, his first time coaching on the road against the Houston defense. We just saw last night a great defense. So I talked, I'm all in on T-Series. I bet that pretty heavily. This is a game, Munchad most definitely like it bullied and to put it in. It's just you're getting the plus one and a half with a great defense at home. Once again, it's we just don't trust the quarterback. So that's one of, I've had to really swallow my pride on where it's like, can't coward my way out of it and just do T-Series on it. I got to give out a line on it. So I am dug in. I bet the one and a half and I will be a big Houston backer this couple of coming weekend. Well, by the way, Simon, I think the Seahawks proved last night when you have a great defense quarterback, really doesn't matter. You wait for a pause, keep it moving.

13:40All right. It's surprising to me, Simon. No one has talked about the New York Jets at the Tennessee Titans plus one and a half. It actually crept up a little bit to two and a half. So you're saying that nobody bought my argument on Tuesday. You said I was not being an adult after the show made me tell you how I spend so much time in the Jets. You asked them to beg to jump in next time. Here we are. Can I assume you have still not made a bet on the Jets and you will not acquiesce and go with me into the contest with the Jets? No, no. I said I had already, I said I had bet the Jets just like every other sucker in the world. We all know that came worried as look horrible, right? I mean, there's no secret to why we're betting the Jets here. Sneaky fantasy week one defense. If you're a stuck, the Jets, I mean, because we just thought I came worried, he might be terrible. And we've not seen anything disproved that. Like we haven't seen anything in the preseason, but my whole view of it, Chad, it's just,

14:42it's a week one line. It's never that easy. And the fact that it's, I think it's like eight or so of the bets and the money are on the Jets. And like you said, still ticking back up because there is pros I know who are taking Tennessee because it's Salah at home with this defense first game against the Jets against Juno Smith. You know, it's, this game could go a million different ways. That's why I don't want to take it. There's just too many variables, too many unknowns when we have 15 other amazing games to pick from. So that's just my personal. I could tell you if you get the Jets right here, and I think next week, Tennessee plays the Eagles, you nail the Eagles again. You were the, you were the Tennessee champion. You can bet whatever game you want with Tennessee Titans. I just, I have too much PTSD. Our fans have too much PTSD with the Titans. We just can't get involved in them. We've gone. All right. I'm curious. You mentioned a split on Tampa Bay at Cincinnati, the lines three and a half. Tampa Bay was Chad's choice. Maybe I took it too early and you indicated there is splits because the number is juiced

15:45to three and a half on both sides like it might go to four in a lot of books. I haven't seen the four pop yet. You loved it too. What are we missing? Why are, why are some professionals coming in on Cincinnati? I think they're over in their defense too much. I, I do think their demons will be better. This isn't the, it's like dialysis. It's not a bunch of guys that have played together. It's an in new system on a new team in their first start going against a Baker offense that when they're clicking my God are they good. We've talked to their offensive line is really good. So that's why I'm, I'm dug in with you on the books. Like I really do think we end up having them in our contest because it's such a great number. It could never let us down in this spot, especially the numbers above three. He's just a covering machine. He always finds a way to backdoor when he's fully healthy. This offense is, I met Gabbuk was at practice. Chris Godwin's brilliant practice. Buck Irving's been at practice. Can you again, was been at practice. Their offensive line is totally healthy. If our biggest question of weakness is this puck's defense, which is fair, I mean, I still

16:51think Baker and keep us in a shootout. Like we're never going to be dead like me. He talked about if he's down 10, we don't mind because that even, even Baker knows he's going to keep going for it, even off fourth down. He'll hopefully get us that back door. And we've seen defenses in those type of scenarios. They play lacks. They give up the touchdown just as long as they're wasting time and dumping off the short downfield. So it's really about the number and the matchup and the fact that the Bengals, historically, even Joe Burle have struggled in the week one week two. Like we've seen those stats. Joe Burle is an incredible covering machine after a week two. Like well above 500 before week two. He's well below 500. He's, I think he has two covers or one covering his career. So we're really playing the, playing the spot, playing the number in the situation. And just I am once again shocked that these professionals are just overrating this, this Bengals defense. We've all agreed they're going to be better. But in week one, it just feels like the same week nine project and this is all new faces against a higher powered offense. Offense that I know it sounds crazy looking back to me.

17:53Chad really believed through four games last year that Baker was going to potentially win MVP. That's how good Baker was through four weeks last year before he got hurt. So yeah, health is the biggest one. I mean, we learned the last night, right? All these guys going down, it's like you just, you can't overthink. I think it's in week nine and these guys are all banked up. You have fully healthy teams in these situations and yeah, it's really about us playing the number. So Chad's right, you can be patient and hope you get the four. There's not that much difference than just grabbing the three and a half now. Just in case professional money does come in and bet it down, but I have no issue waiting if you need to and get the plus four. I've actually grabbed a couple of plus fours when they thought a mecca Bukka was going to miss this game. It could jump back up, right? Like I said, is split our professionals betting this Bangle's team? It's all about what the book's going to do. I track at this point. I think it's fair to say because we talked about the bangles so much during the pre season and they're in a lot of our exactas, but your point about it's week one, not week

18:56nine. That's what we're betting here. Like we're not walking away from the bangles season long. I think we still believe in them. If their defense can get incrementally better, but Baker just has a better track record of delivering right now than the bagels defense does. I'm glad to see we have a waivered on the box. I was worried that all of a sudden there was going to be some contentiousness and I don't like that. You know, I don't like that. Hey, everyone. It's the Jonas Brothers with the Hey Jonas podcast. We've been catching up with some great friends Paul Rod, Michael Bubley, Seth Meyers, Nile Horan, Jake Shane, and making some new friends while getting into what's really like to have sisters like Alex and ask your neural. She likes to control everyone and tell everyone to do that. Okay, well control is a harsh word. I would say that's a harsh word. I am more outspoken. Growing up a lot of the times because she was so quiet, I would speak for like the both of us. Now I'm working on like thinking a mom is really not thinking before I speak. And Joey King. You know, if your like mom is yelling at your sibling and even if you're annoyed with

19:59your sibling, you just like won't let that slide. Like you only can yell at your sibling. I'm like, you can't do that here. That is not what I want about her like that. I just like about it. Plus, we've been taking your calls, listening to your voice mails and giving advice or at least trying to. So if you've got catching up to do now is the perfect time. Listen to Hey Jonas on the I Heart Radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is highly breakman, Angel Jaretana, Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald, and we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists on artists podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is foe journal. I don't know if you guys heard of foe journaling. Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So you're so we don't like to use that word anymore. Okay. A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No. I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sudako in the thousand paper cranes by Auderman Donald at the Wonderland

21:03bookstore. 14. That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland bookstore yesterday and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of zero dark 30. No way. Patrick of the last bookstore though. Kim Kertroll is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He winks on Halloween. It's right up next to the microphone. I hear you get the almost here. The eyelashes hate each other. You never seen it least so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on the I heard radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts by a's a rather than or so at least 70% have a phone. Middle school is a different world than the one we grew up in. I'm Dr. Joy and this is therapy for black girls. He spent real time on it in our surviving middle school run. Bringing in a child psychologist and a psychiatrist who's raising two black girls of his own to talk about what's really going on with our kids right now. So it's literally physiological and neurological and psychological chaos happening all the

22:08same time. We got into group chats and gaming, friendship and bullying and how to tell the difference between healthy monitoring and the kind of surveillance that erodes trust. And belonging, you could think of belonging as I can be myself and I can still be accepted. And then they're fitting in. Spitting in says I have to change who I am in order to avoid rejection. Then we turn the conversation toward the fathers sitting down with therapists, cure gains on black fatherhood and what it means to raise a daughter through this stage. You don't have more shorts so you can't do flips. You have on the dress you have across your legs. That's the range of this run from screen time to identity to the fathers doing the work at home. You get off her device. But the reality is there's a lot of light out there that we don't want you as you're adult in the life to miss out on. This has been our surviving middle school run brought to you by the people who spend their careers thinking about exactly this. I'm Dr. Joy. Listen to therapy for black girls on the I Heart Radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.

23:10Self-Cast of Tempa is here, which means it's time to rethink what self-canc actually means. Yes, self-care can be a long walk. It can be an everything shower. It can be putting your phone on, do not disturb. But sometimes it's actually about sitting with the uncomfortable stuff. And understanding your patterns, your boundaries. Finally figuring out why you keep doing things that you swore you would never do again. I'm Gemma Speg, the host of the Psychology of your 20s podcast. And each week we unpack the psychology behind the experiences that shape your 20s. For relationships and friendships to money, anxiety, confidence, attachment, just becoming more comfortable with who you are. Unlike the quarter life crisis which is depicted as the collapse, the quarter life reinvention is the expansion and the growth of something. When we develop the ability to be happy by ourselves, nobody else can take that from you. So this self-care September, don't just take care of yourself, get to know yourself as well. Listen to the psychology of your 20s on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

24:10Chicago at Carolina, Carolina 3 1-1-1-2, get that at Polymarket. This one was Simon, says, look, they talked about unsharped calls. You bet it. I bet it. Bryce Young is an underdog. Chicago with a terrible, terrible defense. Chicago was way overhyped. money that the number has moved from three to three and a half in some places, two and a half to three in other places, I think we're getting a really good number here. Yeah, and that's what it all comes down to, just the number. As much as we do, think that bears, all fences and apps with juggernaut and this is a good matchup for them, right? This is the type of team that we saw last year. I mean, the games where they need to be a shootout for whatever reason, right, Sean has stepped up. I keep going back to that playoff game against the Rams, how incredible of a game he had, but we've seen the Bryce do that last year, right? And a bunch of games where he needed to put up points to move the ball, they have weapons.

25:13Like Cokeir, Heteron McMillan, these are good receivers on the outside. We talked about this bears team. Could they have gotten away with it? If Kobe Bryant was healthy, I think they could have. That's how good of a safety is. Without a field of field general like that in the middle, they're going to have busted the coverages. They're going to have blown assignments at some point and just looking at the matchup, the fact that it's picked up, right? Some books are still two and a half, which I also think is very telling. When the books are still letting people come in and take a position on the bears under three, while other books and polymarketing, particularly at markets are up to three and a half, that is just shows how confident a lot of these books are in this Panther's pot and taking that position on the Panther's. The market hasn't shifted enough. I sadly say, I wish I had that type of power. It's still like 90% of the bets on the bears team. Our fans, our little fans have come in. They've taken their position on the Panther's. Maybe this is more updated. It comes Sunday as people have bet their money here on the Seattle game than maybe tonight

26:15on this San Francisco game. It's like, okay, now they're going to start coming in on this side more of the bears. I do, I think shocked to see they're still two and a half. I just think the bears, the polymarketing, they bet them up. I will be shocked Sunday if there's all three and a half. I would love to see if there's two and a half because that would really give me a lot of confidence on this Panther's side. But yeah, it's tough. We know our contest, the lands are always updated and moving. I hope we get the three and a half at two and a half. We have a real conversation because we don't tend to take the two and a half's to be honest unless we really love a team. Taking a dog at two and a half, it just means you had no. That point is such a big deal. How many times have you land on three for us? Another game where I just hope everyone did the polymarketer, shopped around to find the three and a half. It's just such a key number here and a bear theme that last year, how many games did they come from mind and win? So it's just that insurance is needed against a guy like Caleb Williams. He always finds a way to come back and win games. You mentioned the contest. I know people are asking about it.

27:18Please be patient. We apologize. We haven't given the official announcement and put up the site yet. There's just a lot of hoops to jump through. Matt Mitchell is working on it diligently, but it will get up. And even if it gets up a little bit late, the rules are going to allow for a full season contest. Simon, it is time for our brass balls. Trade of the week, presented by Polymarket. It is the Miami Dolphins, three and a half, currently trading at 45% at Polymarket. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. Dude, we were kind of already there. Then the Brock Bowers news broke yesterday. So he's not going to be playing. This in Cleveland are the the ball'siest plays on the board. We've decided to go with this one, partially because we've just been on it for so long.

28:20Yeah, and I get why you don't trust Cleveland and Burmorsso here on Miami just because it is not only the Transpoint to it, but it's like who are the Raiders be catching on three and a half against anybody? Let alone. Especially with Brock Bowers out now. Yeah, and potentially genty. And I know there's a lot of underlying numbers where I think it's May or May or the back up is actually a pretty good tight end. And you should be able to step in and this could be X system and perform pretty well. On the flip side, I look at this Miami team and this is the exact type of week they could catch it to you. I know I said that big as a sneaky survivor play, but that's just game theory. In actuality, if my aim is going to steal any type of game, it is weak one. And with whilest that quarterback, we don't know how long he'll last being healthy. This is a great match for him. This is the type of defense. They don't have the linebackers and keep up speed wise for him once you get outside the pocket. Between him and H and I think we both can squinter eyes enough and see how they can cover

29:21this number defensively. There's obviously nothing there for Miami. Like I just going through their depth chart. It really is a hodgepots of journeyman bench players, guys you've never heard of. And that's their starters like legit running them out there every week. So it might be a total train wreck. The chat might be down 15, 14, nothing here to start the game. You know, movie cool skin, that's a safety who got knows what, but it just feels like this is exact type of line we play in week one where it's like even talking about traders, total market that's that's free to play right now because everyone's just either back on the raiders or not touching this game at all. So hopefully it stays a three and a half, whatever you're shopping at. I've seen like since I talked about since Brock Bauer's news got announced. A lot of books have dropped the three and some some are teetering on two and a half now. Definitely grab this one now just in case by kickoff. It's down to three, two and a half. I actually played Miami to win outright. I didn't even bother with the number.

30:24It's a three and a half. It'll be our brass balls. Trader the week. You make a great point about the roster. So this from Doug Claussen who works in research at CBS Sports. He put this on X. The dolphins are the only team in recorded history. To pay more for players not on the roster, $183 million for players not on the roster. Then players on the roster, $104 million. They are also the least experienced team to open a season in recorded history. Something like 600 combined games for every player on the roster. But we're doing it brother. We are freaking doing it. Football is back. And you need to change the way you invest in the NFL this season. It's finally time to ditch your old sports book. Apps because Polymarket is here. Polymarket is a legal prediction market. Now available in all 50 states and those old sports books.

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32:30We talked a little bit about Cleveland and Jacksonville Simon. Years and a half, I came in hot on the Jags the other day. I actually included the Jags money line in the discord as one of our potential groupers for the weekend. Reminder my new book, The Number comes out in January. If you pre-order it, read the number.com. You get access to the discord every week. We are voting on bets to discuss on the show. I will make those bets with my own money, whatever we win, plus a floor of five grand. We'll be donated to St. Jude's. Go to readthenumber.com to join the conversation. Everyone must have listened to the show and heard you gently tell me I was an idiot for backing from going against the Browns. We heard it in sharp calls of the six options and more than 90 votes in the discord.

33:31Simon, the Jags got a total of four votes. The line has moved in the Browns direction. There are actually a couple of seven and a half out there. Clearly, why is guys are betting on the Browns? Yeah, just too big of a number, too much respect for a team that it's a new season, everybody. As much as you want to talk about how good the Jags finish and how incredible Trevor Lawrence was second half of the season, which is all great. That's what you want. It's a totally new season in two teams that they're not perceived to be what they are. I think by drum public. The Jags are good. I don't think they are, which this number is saying they are a top five, top 16. On the flip side, this number is saying the Browns are on bottom two, bottom three team, which I just can't agree with, especially when it comes to week one. Be catching eight and a half, seven and a half points in week one against a team. You have to be so dominant because your base can say all of us have these all these unknowns. None of us have played preseason. We're going to come out here. We're going to smack this team, like maybe potentially 10 points or more.

34:33It's like, we know football that just does not happen. You have to have such a bad game on one side of the ball, right? If the Sean Watson comes out and has a ton of turnovers, yeah, we're dead as is. But if Munkin, who's got a whole off season prepared for this, has the right game plan. They play smart. They have incredible amount of weapons around the Sean Watson. The biggest question is the offensive line. And we've talked a time. There's ways to mitigate that. Like 15 teams in a foul have bad offensive lines. It's just the way it is. They all find a way, right? They all find a way to attack the defensive when they have battle flip lines. Whether that's getting out the ball out quick, whether that's running against it, maybe the quarterback is mobile, which just Sean Watson. I know it's been a long time. He can still run outside the pocket. So it's just, it's too big of a number. Like I said, it's, I haven't talked to all pro that had this model above seven. So the fact that it has dropped to seven and a half, you're still getting a half for free point, even on guys who models, you favorite the shagwars to you now. I have this number at six. So like I am way above that. And I think this is a great number of the Browns. And it is tough though trying to model this one out where it's like the Sean Watson.

35:37I know it sounds crazy, but him and Sanders, the difference in my model is literally a point. It's like, there's not that big of a difference. That's how far the Sean Watson has fallen. But the model, my model really does love this Browns defense. And that's my only fear here is I'm going off a tons of, tons of numbers and data from last year. For this year, there is no mouse guard, right? As much as verse might be, you know, a good player. There's no way to mitigate the number one player and football and defense. And on the flip side, it's not short. It's the different defense. And we've, we've seen all the numbers, right? The Browns teams, their defense, especially, does not travel on the road. They've just struggled historically in the last couple of years on the road. So there is a lot of reasons to pause about it. But at the end of the day, it's like, you know, this Jaguars team, 30th ranked offensive line in my model this year. This Jaguars team is much as going to say Trevor Lawrence did improve and he was better. I think it was more to do so that he just wasn't doing those stupid turnovers.

36:37And we've seen that, you know, come back and bite him against good defenses, which the Browns are for all of temperous purposes. So just, just feels like a type of game that, you know, people in the public, they are betting the Saints. They are coming in betting the Cardinals. So you can look at all the splits. There are people out there betting it. Nobody's, nobody of their professionals are betting this Browns team. So it just feels like another draw of the line in the same type of game where pros will take a position. We think we know better in the public and public could come smell like roses with this Jaguars team. You are truly betting at a terrible number. You're getting no value for betting the Jaguars team. You're basically better at the high of the highest part. You can have the market if you're ticking minus eight and a half right now on the Jaguars side. So the way you talk about it, this should be a no brainer for our contest. Like, I feel like if it wasn't week one, we wouldn't even be hesitating. On the flip side, the week one makes more and even more because there is so much unknown

37:41number getting so many points. Like I really can't believe it's eight and a half. All right, let's leave it in. Let's let's like consider it. I think you're right, Chad. I think it will by the time we get on here Sunday morning, it will be seven and a half unfortunately. So that would be the real decision. But at eight and a half, we're fighting about the fifth one in. I just, I think we'll both agree just to put them in. It's just such a big number, such a nice spot. And it's just Jaguars could be really good, but I don't think they're in that. They're not what they were last year at the end of the season where they were this fine through to offense. Their defense was getting tons of turnovers like that. Turnover luck regrets. The offense should regress a little bit just because it's a new start to this season. And the Browns team is just so many unknowns. No one knows what this team could potentially be. What we do know is it is going to fall into Sean Watson. If this guy can't complete third down throws, I mean, we're going to know we're cooked. Like that's going to be the tough part of this one. We're just totally bent into a guy that we don't know. But I will say, my last memory is you betting him against the Ravens. I think it was plus seven and a half dog.

38:43And he was down like 21 and a half. I had like a broken collarbone. Got the got the shot. Can you look at half? Did you even know where he was and brought the Browns back against that Ravens team and won that game outright? So we've seen we've seen Watson do it. It's just can he can he put it together, Chad, all these years later once again? Well, we also know that he's very fast. You mentioned his ability to run. Someone knows from his latest legal troubles, the guy is fast. I'm referring to a recent speeding ticket. Hey, everyone. It's the Jonas Brothers with the Hey Jonas podcast. We've been catching up with some great friends Paul Rod, Michael Bubley, Seth Meyers, Nile Horan, Jake Shane, and making some new friends while getting into what's really like to have sisters like Alex National. She likes to control everyone and tell everyone to do it. Okay, well, control is a harsh word. I would say that's a harsh word. I am more outspoken. Growing up a lot of the times because she was so quiet, I would speak for like the both of us. Now I'm working on like thinking of Mom, really not thinking before I speak.

39:44And Joey King. You know if your like mom is yelling at your sibling and even if you're annoyed with your sibling, you just like won't let that slide. It's like you only can yell at your sibling. I'm like, you can't do that here. That is not what I want about her like that. I just want to talk about her. Plus we've been taking your calls, listening to your voice mails and giving advice or at least trying to. So if you've got catching up to do now is the perfect time. Listen to Hey Jonas on the I Heart Radio app Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcast. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman, Angel Jaretana, Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald, and we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists on artists podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. And then the first one is for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is. Phone journal. I don't know if you guys heard of phone journaling. Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So you're so we don't like to use that word anymore. Okay. A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No.

40:45I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sudako in the thousand paper cranes by Auderman Donalds at the Wonderland bookstore. 14. That's crazy. I've been looking for a lot of books on the last book store. Kim Kattroll is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He, he winks on Halloween. He gets rid of next to the microphone. You can, I hear you get almost here. The eyelashes hit each other. You never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on the I heard radio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts by a's a rather than or so at least 70% have a phone. Middle school is a different world than the one we grew up in. I'm Dr. Joy and this is therapy for black girls. We spent real time on it in our surviving middle school run, bringing in a child psychologist

41:48and a psychiatrist who's raising two black girls of his own to talk about what's really going on with our kids right now. So it's literally physiological and neurological, psychological chaos happening all this end up. We got into group chats and gaming, friendship and bullying and how to tell the difference between healthy monitoring and the kind of surveillance that a road's trust. You're belonging. You could think of belonging as I can be myself and I can still be accepted. And then they're fitting in. Fitting in says I have to change who I am in order to avoid rejection. Then we turn the conversation toward the fathers, sitting down with therapists, cure gains on black fatherhood and what it means to raise a daughter through this stage. You don't have more shorts so you can't do flips, you have on the dress you have across your legs. That's the range of this run from screen time to identity to the fathers doing the work at home. You have to get off her device. But the reality is there's a lot of life out there that we don't want you as your adult in the life to miss out on. This has been our surviving middle school run brought to you by the people who spend their

42:50careers thinking about exactly this. I'm Dr. Joy. Listen to therapy for black girls on the I Heart Radio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast. Self-care September is here which means it's time to rethink what self-care actually means. Yes, self-care can be a long walk. It can be in everything shower. It can be putting your phone on do not disturb. But sometimes it's actually about sitting with the uncomfortable stuff and understanding your patterns, your boundaries. And finally figuring out why you keep doing things that you swore you would never do again. I'm Gemma Speg, the host of the Psychology of your 20s podcast. And each week we unpack the psychology behind the experiences that shape your 20s. From relationships and friendships to money, anxiety, confidence, attachment, just becoming more comfortable with who you are. Unlike the quarter life crisis which is depicted as the collapse, the quarter life reinvention is the expansion and growth of something. When we develop the ability to be happy by ourselves, nobody else can take that from you. So this self-care September, don't just take care of yourself, get to know yourself

43:53as well. Listen to the psychology of your 20s on the I Heart Radio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. At Lanna at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh 3.5 solid everywhere, looks like it might be headed for. Opinions across the board are pretty much consensus on this. This was another submission in the discord. I'll announce the winner of the Grupper Betts at the end, but a lot of people were making their voice heard about the Steelers. And I feel a little bit like we like the Steelers. Certainly, I like them on the Moneyline. Last night in the pregame with the Patriots in the Seahawks, Mike Tomlin just went off on tour. I almost feel guilty betting the Steelers at minus 3.3 and a half in our first game after Mike Tomlin Cover Guard has retired. Cover God has retired.

44:55But it's hard enough to do it because there's nobody who thinks tour might not be on the roster in week two. Yeah, and this would be the classic in with two of those burners, but now the fact that the Raiders, you know, they're not probably not usable now survivor. Pittsburgh is turning to that sneaky sexy team that everyone's going to use now. Like there are the team that if you don't take the chargers, you have to use Pittsburgh, especially while Aaron Rodgers healthy and this exact spot against a Falcons team that Mr. Fancy gives a great coach. Can you find a way to scheme up to against this defense and find a way? Yeah, but we've seen it. There's two, you know, style of play. I mean, you have guys coming out saying that if Pnex was healthy, two of what have been cut. Yeah, the fact that people in the media are saying that on TV, there are a ton of leaks right now in Atlanta. So that means I can't imagine what's going on in the locker room and all the bad blood and everything like that. So this this feel the time again, the books could get could have got caught hanging a bad number because this opened it to an half.

45:55Jump to three. Now it's three and a half in shed. There's some book now looking to go to four. So normally, yes, during the regular season, if there's a couple weeks in, we probably would be scared off of this one and who knows if ends up being our only favorite we put in the contest because the number has moved so much. But money line wise, you know, taking a survivor, I just feel like it all lines up here for Pittsburgh where this is the exact scenario, the exact game, but the veteran had coach like Mike McCarty, they do come out with, right? You just don't see their defense sleep in here. It's going to be a very easy defense to scheme wise if you're the Steelers, you're basically assuming to his whole goal, get the ball out of his hands within three seconds. So press coverage, bringing everyone into the box, like maybe having one high safety, you don't need to go covered to against two. I don't know if you have to drop two deep safeties. It's just slant the coverage to Drake May side, you know, having extra guy down the box for B. John Robinson. It's like, is this really going to be that complicated of a game? Is Atlanta really going to steal this one from us? Yeah, it could happen because it's week one, but just on paper, people's models, it's

47:00like most guys I talk to have this right of four, four and a half. So technically, you're still getting value here on Pittsburgh. If you want to take that side and I would say our only hesitation at all would just be the fact that it is week one and where things can happen. But game theory, especially for survivor for trying to play a spot here, it really is tough to find another time you're going to use a Steelers and much you want to say, well, take them against the ground, blah, blah, blah. It's usually not a smart play to take a team against a divisional foe in survivor pool. So this one just jumped out to me. It's like a game where I'm always looking to find a favorite to take. This one just jumps out of like, okay, is there a scenario where Pittsburgh just absolutely steam rolls this Falcon steam? Yes, there is because it's just such a good team on paper, better and wise like this defense. I think that the highest paid defense on football, they can't shut down to a, this Falcons offense, they're going to have real problems this upcoming season. So yeah, this, this feels like a tone setting game from a Carthian, this Pittsburgh team. And I can't see them really relaxing in this match up.

48:04Totally agree. We are aligned. Matt Mitchell, I'm going to surprise you here because I want to go to Buffalo Houston. Houston is a one and a half point underdog. Simon talked about it from Sharpe calls. You and I are just, we cannot get over CJ Stroud. And I think that's a complete and total blocker for us on this Houston team. Like they weren't even one of the main teams we talked about for our Super Bowl future exact as, and we love to Miko Ryan's and we love this defense. So what do you think the professional betters when they're calling you and telling you about Houston are saying that we're missing when it comes to CJ Stroud or we just not giving this defense enough credit to be so dominant? Yeah, I would say the pitch on CJ would just be the guy that has gone to play off the one-of-play-off game every year of his career. And if you didn't have such an incredible blazing, amazing rookie year, our standards would

49:06be different. And CJ's admitted last year was a down year. He needs to play better than that. You know, offensive line, total reshuffle could be better. I think the professional look at this is you have to take Houston because of all the history of Josh Hound against the Houston defense. He has always struggled against them. And the fact that we saw last night, like you can have poor quarterback play and still find a way to win a game. Like if you have a great defense and you do get turnovers, which, you know, Josh Hound is not a turnover happy quarterback, but against really good defenses, he does turn them all over. And he goes through his career. Has worked on the picks. I mean, I remember two, three years ago, it was like a guarantee. He was going to have some dumb pick in the red zone. He has worked on these correct and the Josh Hound got much better than Josh. Joe Brady is a part of that. He's helped him improve that. So, you know, as much as I want to get them benefit of the doubt and think Joe Brady will have a game plan here, the more you break down Houston defense, they run basically the most basic, easy defense ever.

50:09They're just so talented and good, especially their D.N.'s. It doesn't matter. Like, it doesn't matter if you've seen that defensive style and what they're running a thousand times. They have two D.N.'s that can both run just as fast as Josh Hound. And there is not another team in all football that has that. So, you know, between Hunter and Anderson, those are the game records. Those are the, that's the change up front. And then the fact that you have a cornerback that can match up, you know, with DJ more and Stanley, it's like, okay, Stingley, it's, I'm just trying to find a way to not take this one shed and the more we break it down, it's like, it's plus one and a half on a home dog with a great defense. It feels like we kind of have to back the Texas. Yeah. Yeah, getting called out on just saying I'm only going to take them into users. That was fair. It's like, I should be more dug in because I had bad Texans plus one and a half. I just, all in this show, I know it's people's money here. I'm trying to be as safe as I can, especially in week one. There is no safe bet, right? We've seen that in many times over anything that happened in these games. You can't really take a carriage way out in this one.

51:11So just match up wise, I think a lot of things favor the Texans. My only fear is like this bill's defense, which we know nothing about. It's all these new players. What if they are an absolute train wreck? Like this is not enough. His respect has been paid to Sean McDermott, how great of a defense on Monday was just because his defense are so terrible in the playoffs that between bills fans and us in the media, we're all just like, all right, is it really that big of a loss who's in Sean McDermott? We'll find out pretty quick here in week one. If CJ can put up over 21 points, I feel like they're the type of team that that's all that defense needs to win games. If they go above 20 against Josh Allen, like a 21 to 20 type of game, that does feel like the type of final we're going to see here in this match up. So I say it again, don't take Houston minus one and a half, shop around, get that plus number. We have been caught so many times taking the flip line. You want to get the plus number here if you can on Houston.

52:12All right. It's funny you bring that up because the next game, Green Bay at Minnesota minus one and a half. And we talked about this on Tuesday that the flip line was scaring us off a little bit because we have been burned on that so many times. And we've won on that so many times when we've gotten the dog at one and a half before the number flipped to them being a favorite. We have won and we've lost on the other side. Here's my theory on this one. I'm not sure that past applies here because other times the line flip was really dictated by the money, right? We knew what the rosters were going to be. The variables were known and the number moved because somebody came in and a group of people came in and they liked it at plus one and a half and it moved to minus one and a half. And we had to make a decision based on the one and a half minus one and a half. This wasn't dictated by moves or bad line. It was dictated by personnel.

53:12The line moved. The day a Kyler Murray was announced. So are we betting into Minnesota with Kyler Murray as a one and a half point favorite because that's who we think is better? I'm not sure that the line move issue should be scaring us away. Well, this definitely moved though because of professional one. This is another game split right down the middle of public all over Green Bay and the professionals all over Minnesota. Which I understand totally, right? You have a Green Bay team that's been the playoffs multiple years, Jordan Love. I mean, we talked all the fantasy football guys they have wise, like the receiving corps really talented. Fans just aren't going to break down Green Bay's offensive line. Fans aren't going to go in and break down Green Bay's defensive scheme and the difference that Michael Parsons makes to that team because their whole defense is basically built around him at this point, right? They just do not have talent defensively and the fact that he's missing this game against a mobile quarterback.

54:14Everything just keeps pointing to Kyler. That's my fear here in this game is it's one that feels too easy and I do not get why it's not two and a half or three. Like Minnesota, I have them great. It's so much higher than Green Bay. Just right now is week one, right? Because it's just Green Bay is that bad luck, right? They have no Josh Jacobs. They have no Michael Parsons. Those are two guys you could say are both top three, top four players on this team. On the flip side, they have everybody. I mean, I'm trying to think the thing that might be hurting, I guess you could say the Vikings is they have no pass rush. They have no star guy on that D line that puts fear into the quarterbacks, right? They don't have those type of guys. We've seen in this scheme guys just pop up at a nowhere like that. I think manufacturer every you thought that when like they lost Hunter and Andrew Van Ginkgo was coming in all of a sudden Van Ginkgo is getting double digit sacks. And people like they've called me out on it. My pattern is very simple here.

55:15I back defenses in week one. I bet under is a week one. We've just seen it. We have the data. These teams that don't play in preseason, the offense is always used the first two, three weeks as their preseason like to get right. Guys are out to sink. I mean Seattle. I know you can say it was because San Bernard was got knocked out. I think 100 penalties. I mean, I'm 100 yards in penalties. They had so many pre snap motion penalties, so many little stupid things like that because the guys are starting to rhythm. That's why I always lean towards a good defense. Dealers, Vikings, Seattle. You know, you're just. Yeah, Houston. I mean, they always want to look towards the better defense, especially when the other team does not have a good defense at all, which in all those matches we just announced. For the most part of them, the Patriots, all those other teams don't really have good defenses. So I'm really interested to see what the Packers are alike here because, you know, that number was so interesting and like you talked about in the summer that the bookmakers, are they really saying the difference between Kyler Murray and nine is three points?

56:17I don't know. I felt like that was the number they hung. I think it was already going to be Kyler and then once it was announced, it was Kyler, so much money came and they did flip it. So another game where, yeah, for debating between them, Houston or the Jai or Cleveland, I could get there. I'm going to sort of, like I said, it's always tough where it's like, we've been burned by this number flip so many times. But I do think it's still an arrived if you want to take the Vikings. I said, I have a two and a half. I have a three. If you want to take the one and a half, I said you're going to get a good value. I'm in a soda, but we've seen this match up before, right? LaFlore. I have to go hit up our guy in the evenings. I almost paused the little floor in September. He's one of the best coaches against the spread, just like the En Campbell. So not trying to lean too much in the past performance because those are way better green bay teams. I needed to think those were two years of that was with Aaron Rodgers, MVP runs and Green Bay had a much better defense in the past as well and offensive lines. So it's just all these things feels like it's lining up for people who have picked the Packers on this division and they're high on the Packers.

57:19This week one might be a rude awakening for them that's like, oh, this is not Packers team in the past. It's going to be all on Jordan and love. And in this scheme, defensively, I think Jordan and love could get turned over here. I know he doesn't turn the ball over much, but this Vikings defense, I feel like this is the exact type of game they could get after Jordan and love. Hey everyone, it's the Jonas Brothers with the Hey Jonas podcast. You've been catching up with some great friends Paul Rod, Michael Bubley, Seth Meyers, Nile Horan, Jake Shane, and making some new friends while getting into what's really like to have sisters like Alex National. She likes to control everyone and tell everyone to control his a hard work. I would say that's a hard work. I am more outspoken growing up a lot of the times because she was so quiet. I would speak for like the both of us. Now I'm working on like making a mom really not taking before I speak. And Joey King. You know if your like mom is yelling at your sibling and even if you're annoyed with your sibling, you just like won't let that slide. It's like you only can yell at your sibling. I'm like, you can't do that here.

58:19That is not what I want talk about her like that. I just want to talk about her like that. Plus we've been taking your calls, listening to your voice mails and giving advice or at least trying to. So if you've got catching up to do now is the perfect time. Listen to Hey Jonas on the I Heart Radio app Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman. Angel Jaretana. Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald. And we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists on artists podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast were each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is faux journal. I don't know if you guys heard of faux journaling. Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So you're so we don't like to use that word anymore. Okay. A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No. I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sudako in the thousand paper cranes by Auderman Donald at the Wonderland bookstore. 14.

59:19That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland bookstore yesterday and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of zero dark 30. No way. Patrick of the last bookstore though. Kim Kattroll is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He, he winks on Halloween. It's right up next to the microphone. I hear you get the elbows here. The eyelashes hate each other. You never seen it least so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on the I heard radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts by a's a rather than or so at least 70% have a phone. Middle school is a different world than the one we grew up in. I'm Dr. Joy and this is therapy for black row. He spent real time on it in our surviving middle school run. Bringing in a child psychologist and a psychiatrist who's raising two black girls of his own to talk about what's really going on with our kids right now. So it's literally physiological and neurological and psychological chaos.

1:00:22I mean, all this he and I. We got into group chats and gaming, friendship and bullying and how to tell the difference between healthy monitoring and the kind of surveillance that erodes trust. And belonging, you could think of belonging as I can be myself and I can still be accepted. And then they're fitting in. Spitting in says I have to change who I am in order to avoid rejection. Then we turn the conversation toward the fathers sitting down with therapists, care gains on black fatherhood and what it means to raise a daughter through this stage. You don't have more shorts so you can't do flips. You have on the dress. You have to cross your legs. That's the range of this run from screen time to identity to the fathers doing the work at home. You get off our device. But the reality is there's a lot of life out there that we don't want you as your adults in the life to miss out on. This has been our surviving middle school run brought to you by the people who spend their careers thinking about exactly this. I'm Dr. Joy. Listen to therapy for black girls on the I Heart Radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.

1:01:24Self-Case September is here, which means it's time to rethink what self-cane actually means. Yes, self-care can be a long walk. It can be an everything shower. It can be putting your phone on, do not disturb. But sometimes it's actually about sitting with the uncomfortable stuff. And understanding your patterns, your boundaries. Finally figuring out why you keep doing things that you swore you would never do again. I'm Jenna Speg, the host of the Psychology of your 20s podcast. And each week we unpack the psychology behind the experiences that shape your 20s. For relationships and friendships too, money, anxiety, confidence, attachment, just becoming more comfortable with who you are. Unlike the quarter life crisis which is depicted as the collapse, the quarter life reinvention is the expansion and the growth of something. When we develop the ability to be happy by ourselves, nobody else can take that from you. So this self-care September, don't just take care of yourself, get to know yourself as well. Listen to the psychology of your 20s on the I Heart Radio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:02:24Last game I want to talk about to consider for our final five. You mentioned it off the top of the show. And I actually left it in, not knowing it was part of Sharp calls in the script prior to that. Because we talked about considering it if the line got to three. And some three is popping up. Any remaining two and a half look like they're headed to three. I think we do think the giants could have a sneaky good defense. Their password could be really good. And like the like the bangles, we like the cowboys. We're high on the cowboys, but we don't know what their defense is going to be. We think over a season it's going to get better. But in the first game, feels like this is a huge public side for a high profile team on the road in the division in a bit of a tough spot. Yeah, it's the reason to keep working on all these first time. All fits according to our first time defense. It is a big deal. I mean, we could say, well, it's because of San Donald got hurt last night. This could zero points in the first half, which is totally fair.

1:03:27But because I say, well, it's a first time OC like that was that's a hard matchup last night in Seattle for first versus against variable in that defense. And yes, in the second half, he figured it out. Of course, see if you can be sitting here by the cowboys is a first time OC against a giants team that as much as want to make fun of. If neighbors is fully healthy, if scataboo is fully healthy, I mean, another can the outside field is really talented. They have weapons offensively. The question's always been about that offensive line and protecting dark and keeping him healthy. I mean, he's healthy right now. The offensive line for the most part is healthy. We've talked their defense, which is basically everything the giants are built on. They're all front guys. This is their dream scenario going to get some banged up cowboys front. You have two starters potentially missing this game for the cowboys. How can that not be a big deal for a guy like that who's a pocket passer? So I agreed with a lot of sharp goals, a lot of guys calling me up saying that I was letting my bias just get in the way here because me and you are both down on the giants.

1:04:29This upcoming season doesn't matter. I can't adjust and bet on the week one. So I said to people, it's all about the number. Like you're getting me plus three, no brainer, two and a half. That's a real conversation for both of us, especially come Sunday morning about getting them in our contest. But this feels like one of the more sharp games of the week, right? I think a lot of professionals are lining up on it. The public, like we talked about the darling of this cowboys team, everyone kind of loves them. A lot of people are picking them up in the division and the fact that they're getting two and a half, that looks like a great bet to them. So like we've talked about, I'm really interested where the market goes this one on Sunday night because if the public does get absolutely demolished, I think this stays a two and a half. The public has an absolute field day and the dogs get crushed. We could get all this all the way up to three and a half on the giants team, which would be a no brainer smash-buffer for me at that point. So I'm invested. I bet the giants of the plus three, first stuck at two and a half. That's a real conversation we'll have to have. But everyone out there, shop around, get the best number here because even our friends

1:05:30over at Polymarket, they ticked up to three and a half and then immediately someone traded a pretty big number and it went right back down to two and a half. So yeah, something to be on the lookout for. I don't know if we'll get back to three and a half, but there is very smart big money waiting for that giant. Somebody to get back up to three and a half. Look, we said on Tuesday that we felt like this might be a little bit of a trap if you're betting the cowboy. So, all right, we got a lot of games that we're going to have to... Once that too, I forgot to give it up. The visual home dogs, that's what we talked about. Home dogs might be the last 15 years, they're 11 of five against the spread on week one as a home dog. So there is historical data too, back and up, just taking these teams and that's why we like Minnesota, right, but they flipped. So it's just... If you're always looking for those trends and stuff, it's rare on week one you get these home dogs and when you do, it's usually a really great opportunity to bet on these teams. Simon, I think we're going to have eight games in which we got to choose five for our Sunday morning show.

1:06:30We're back Sunday mornings where we will give our final five. We will be back Sunday nights, live after the late games and before Sunday night football begins, we'll review how we did during the day. I got your library too. Oh, no, we got a lot to do right now still. The games that we'll probably end up choosing from Tampa Bay, Carolina, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Houston, Minnesota, Miami and the Giants. I mentioned the discord, Grupper of the week earlier joined the discord, preorder the number. My book is out in January. Go to read the number dot com or to the book. You'll get an invite, help us raise some money for St. Jude's. We had six choices to choose from for the bet I am making. I will do this every single week. As I mentioned, Jacksonville was the lagger just four votes out of 91.

1:07:31Second place Simon Philadelphia Eagles Moneyline minus two 18. In first place, I mentioned it earlier, Pittsburgh Steelers got them at minus 178. That actually ticked down a little bit for minus 185. So I don't know what's happening there, but we did take the Steelers Moneyline minus 178 for our discord, Grupper, Polymarket has that right now. Steelers over the Falcons currently trading at 64 percent. Simon, do you agree with the discord and their votes? Yeah, love Pittsburgh hopefully don't mush it. Don't mush it. We'll report the results on Sunday. I love in the conversation in the discord. Honestly, it's a blast. We were active last night for the game. So join us at read the number dot com and make your voice heard. Prior to the book, get the invite. Underdog Moneyline Parley. My dog likes your dog.

1:08:32Your dog likes my dog. Simon, what do we think here? If we're just doing two teams. I think so, yeah. I feel like we've got to go Houston and the Giants. Houston plus 100 Giants are plus 140. Not Miami, not Carolina. We could, but like those teams we have three and a half. Yeah. That's why it's just good, but we're really thinking that game ends on a fuel bowl. Honestly. Yeah. Favorites Parley. This is a Moneyline Parley. Our Favorites Moneyline Parley. We've got to get Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh, yeah. I don't have a choice. And. Got to go Philly. And Philly. Well, let's do three team because it's just because the. Yeah, yeah. It's a third one. I know. Because we could do like a huge chalk one if we wanted to.

1:09:35That's what I was going to say. Do we go with like Detroit or or or or or last or the chargers? Yeah, I mean, chargers are minus 500. Detroit's minus 310. So let's take Detroit. Yeah, that's that's a big that's a big difference. Let's do Detroit way better. So our favorite Parley is going to be Pittsburgh. It's going to be Philly and it's going to be Detroit. Our underlaunder dog money line Parley. We're going to do Houston and the New York Giants. All right. Give me your biggest bets. Pop those pants and be a man. Oh, man. I mean, there's just so much I've invested in I guess for dogs. Carolina. Very, very large position on them and plus three. I try to bet more the three and a half, but. It's it's really I'm really having invested the plus three number. Obviously we talked about Texans have a ton of money on teasers started bet more obviously now on their side. Tampa, another team I haven't been for three, four months.

1:10:38And I would not be shocked. Not be shocked come Sunday if the Giants and it be one of my big. I know you're going to say that. I didn't really bet that much all summer because I just like I said, I was very down on them and just I did not buy the hype, but. For this matchup, the fact that it's getting to three, I have I have no choice. Honestly, it's like that's that's an egregious movement way too much value on the Giants team to pass on in. Would not be shocked coming Sunday more if that ends up being my biggest better day. Just been been at every day the last three days since it's gotten a three and. I'm going to keep seeing that like I said, probably market got the alert touch three and a half. And I'm really put a ton of money into it and it went right back into two and a half. So that's that's what I'm really hoping on if it goes back to three and a half. I'm going to try to get down more money on it, but. No issues taking the three. No issue taking the two and a half. That's the best you can find here on this Giants side. Sharp versus square Simon first one of the year reminder. Chad choice was Tampa Bay. Simon says was Carolina.

1:11:39We're welcome to make those are choices for this as well. But I defer to you. You won last year. You can go with your first bet. I mean, I guess I'll just do them because I just spent five minutes talking about go Giants. I'll take I'll take the three for New York. Um, all right. So you're taking the Giants plus three. Just because I put myself out there. You know what I'm going to do. I do not. I'll take the New York Jets. Jets. I'm going to I'll live with it. I live with the shame. I live with the agony. I live with the ridicule. I'll take the New York football. Jets week one survivor. I feel like we're going with the Steelers. Yeah, it's it's all game theory. So if you're in one contest, you want to play safe as possible. Okay, go go charges like I got no issue doing that. Harb ball is never lost week one six and oh his career.

1:12:41Chargers are a great team would be very shocking if they got back door to lost that game against Cardinals. So yeah, if I'm if I, you know, something like me that's in 30 40 survivor pools. Maybe I'll do 25% or maybe half on the chargers, but other half was on the Raiders. I've taken them out now and I'm going Pittsburgh. So it's just pure game theory. Don't know when else I'll use Pittsburgh. Use them now. Get them out of the way. Don't worry about the rest of the season. So that's the play for me. I know some people's models still have the Raiders at number three. So they have one chargers number two. They got a Pittsburgh number three. They got Raiders the number four they have Jaguar. If you still want to do Raiders, it's not the worst spot. What means I told you the fact they're down potentially they're two best offensive players. An already a bad team. It's just not worth the risk for me with the Raiders here. So I can't believe I switched them out because I was so happy to have them a month ago and survivor. Now I'm totally out on it. So yeah, Pittsburgh chargers. Those are my two teams.

1:13:41All right, listen, that's our show. If you're listening to this right away on Thursday. Reminder we do like San Francisco plus three and a half tonight versus the Rams in Australia. Simon and I are going to be back on Sunday morning with our final NFL week one bats are five favorite bats. This has been Sharper Square presented by potland market part of the volume podcast network watch. We're listening on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify. Apapods. Wherever you get your pods rate review subscribe. We've got five stars say whatever you want feedback as gift until Sunday. Love you. What an autumn eve we still believe that elves are about and fairies come out to bob for apples and prizes. But goblins and sprites play havoc all night and tumble in different disguises. The entire draft room groans because you just took the guy they wanted.

1:14:44There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league. I'm JJ Zacharyson, host of the award winning late round podcast. Before your draft are players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. Listen to the late round fantasy football podcast on the iHeart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. On big lives we take a single cultural icon. People like Jane Fonda, George Michael, Little Richard. And we pull apart the story behind the image. Discovering forgotten interviews that change exactly how we see these giants of our culture. We're here for the messy, the brilliant, the human version of our heroes. I'm Emmanuel Jochi. I'm Kai Wright. And this is Big Lives. Listen to Big Lives on the iHeart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Brett Coleman and I'm Trevor Sikama. If you love football and want to understand what's really happening on the field,

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