September Hike? Trump, Bessent and Warsh Have a Bigger Plan

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EPISODE

In this episode, Pascal Hügli discusses the current macroeconomic landscape, including the Fed's rate hike prospects, the implications of rising long-term yields, and the ongoing debasement trade involving gold and Bitcoin. He connects these themes to the US's grand plan regarding China and the AI investment cycle, providing a comprehensive view of the financial regime shift.

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CHAPTERS

00:00 Welcome, weekend plans, and AI updates

02:32 Will the Fed hike rates in September?

03:28 Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric and the Taylor Rule

05:17 Oil prices and renewed inflation concerns

07:10 Christopher Waller’s economic outlook

08:33 What core PCE could mean for the Fed

09:32 Key September inflation data to watch

10:31 Why rising long-term yields matter

11:29 US broader grand macro strategy

12:24 Weakening the dollar to counter China

14:42 Why are long-term yields rising?

16:31 Term premiums, Treasury issuance, and debt concerns

19:21 The AI investment cycle and economic growth

21:29 The main drivers behind higher yields

22:24 Are rising yields a threat to equities?

24:13 Gold, Bitcoin, and the debasement trade

25:12 Why Bitcoin may be emerging from its bear market

26:10 Is the Bitcoin bull market beginning?

27:33 Is debasement a trade or a new regime?

28:03 Currency debasement throughout history

29:49 Debt, AI spending, and the modern debasement cycle

32:10 Why liquidity creation is becoming essential

33:57 Why Bitcoin may be the biggest AI trade

35:19 Bessent’s role in managing liquidity

36:17 Treasury buybacks, the TGA, and short-term debt issuance

37:45 FX stability, the carry trade, and additional liquidity

38:10 How inflation helped reduce the debt burden historically

39:32 Forward guidance moves from the Fed to the Treasury

40:30 Final takeaways and what to watch next

Disclaimer

The publications on this website and in these videos, including any references and links, are provided for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, investment analysis, or an offer or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments. They do not replace investment or other professional advice. The information reflects the state of knowledge at the time of preparation and may be changed at any time without notice. The content is intended for natural people only. No liability is accepted for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided, its sources, or for any resulting losses or damages. Liability for slight negligence is excluded. Marketing communication. Not investment advice. Investing involves risk. Transactions in Bitcoin may result in the total loss of the capital invested.