Season preview: What will it take for the Diamondbacks to be good?

0:00Hey, it's our biggest investment, the roof over our heads. That's why at Cossack LVC, we went with America roofing Arizona's 2025 roofing contractor of the year. Yep, Arizona's biggest and best plus saved 12% at America roofingco.com. Hello, everyone. Welcome in. Ain't no fangir is on a sports time backs podcast coming to on Wednesday, March 25th, which is opening night for Major League Baseball. We have one game that's going to be later tonight after we record this between the Giants and Yankees and then Thursday. We get the slate. We get Diamondbacks Dodgers. We are here. I'm Alex Winer. That's Dave Burns. Signing day, huh? It's a very exciting day. We're finally here. Yes. We're finally here. It'll be on Netflix opening night, which will be a little bit quirky. We'll see how that goes. Diamondbacks Dodgers will be on NBC and Peacocks. There's going to be a lot of fanfare on national television for that one. But we know the opening day roster. We know some of the quirks of the opening day roster, particularly one that's kind of stuck out for more than the other one. More attention than maybe some of the others. Yeah, exactly.

1:00But the plan for today is to go over some of that recent news, but then also to break down, the Diamondbacks will be good if and we can kind of go through some of our reasoning for why this could be a good season or what has to happen. It has to happen for the season. That mean, kind of go over a little bit of schedule, just because it's going to be a challenge for them coming out of the gate. And then if you predictions that we're done. So first of all, we got the opening day roster, right? It's what we had expected after, you know, how camp had gone over the past couple of weeks for the most part. The one big, I don't know, giant surprise, but certainly noteworthy is the fact that there are no left handers in the bullpen. Yeah. It's policy well. It's Kevin Ginkgo. It's Ryan Thompson. It's Taylor Clark. It's Jonathan Loiske. It's Joe Ross. And it's Andrew Hoffman and Juan Mario, no Brandon Garcia, no Philip Abner. Lordeus Grayell is going to be on the 10-day IL. It's what was expected that he would not have to go on the 60 days. They look towards maybe a month from now, maybe less, who knows, to get him back. Adrian Del Castillo on the 10-day, Tyler Locklear on the 10-day, Blake Walson on the 60-day, Christian Mayna on the 60-day. Those two are pretty notable because

2:04that's a lot of your pitching depth. You're not going to have for a long time. Yeah. And Merrill on the 15-day as he looks to come back by April 8th, if all goes according to plan. So biggest takeaway for you when you were looking at the opening day roster. Oh, I mean, the first, the first thing I thought of was when looking at the roster I saw, I mean, not only are there no lefties in the bullpen, Eduardo Rodriguez is the only left-handed pitcher on the entire team. And so I thought of that John Travolta pulp fiction meme where he's standing in the room and he hears Umatherman's voice and he's kind of looking around. Like, I was thinking of Eduardo Rodriguez as the one left-handed pitcher, like looking around like, where is everybody else? Where are the other lefties, right? So after that joke got done being in my head, I think the rest of it was pretty standard and has its once you got over the there's not going to be a left-hander in the bullpen. I think the thing that I'm trying to come to grips with a little bit and not that this is like some major reckoning or anything is it it did seem like that some of the back end bullpen decisions were based largely on the springs that they had.

3:10And I don't know if that's something they always necessarily lean on when it comes to their guide to making those decisions, right? Like it felt a little, maybe I'm wrong, maybe this is just like, recency bias, but it felt like a little more uncommon than in the past for them to go, well, this guy had a good spring, this guy didn't. So we're going to take the guy who did. You know, I don't know. You tell me is that it feels different to me than in years past? A little bit, but for guys on the roster bubble, like you need to see them executing and totally totally. And even though it's spring and it's, you know, people go into spring training with different things that they want to work on what they want to get accomplished. Some pictures just want to get built up to a certain degree. And then, you know, there'll be a lot sharper when the season starts. When you're on the roster bubble, you got to, you got to prove that you can execute in these big games. And it's just, you know, it wasn't a great spring. Obviously for Brandon Garcia or Philip Abner, they're not going to have Blake Wilson for a while. They're not going to have AJ Puck for a while. And so it just left you really, really light when it came to lefties. And Mario and Andrew Hoffman were quite good. And maybe it's also too just reflective that

4:12that there were more guys on the bubble in this year's bullpen than years past. Sure. More guys who needed to have good springs to make the roster not necessarily. Oh, this is some change in philosophy. Now we're pouring all of our resources into who had a good spring who didn't. But more of a, for the first time in a while, we've legit got four or five spots here that we're not quite sure who's going to fill. And if you want it, you got to come take it. You got to come grab it. And then Ross is being in the bullpen. On the team and tactically started. I mean, obviously many of them are very, the white skis are very predictable. Taylor Clark is very predictable. But Joe Ross, you know, I, when we were going through guys, they signed before spring even started. I mean, I, I had to, because I think my myself of Joe Lester's spring started. I remember. I think you're right. And it was like, oh, yeah, Joe Ross, they signed him too. And yet here he is. He made the team. Now, you know, when Merrill comes back and if Soroka is the one who moves down is the one who moves out. We'll see who knows how that's going to be a lot of flexibility with this bullpen. It's, it's not going to be pretty sick. Like how long are they

5:13going to have no lefty? Like, I don't know. It could be two weeks for all I know. Yeah. And then they bring somebody else up. Yeah. That, and that's, so if we're going to get to the lefty thing, that to me is the, how long is this going to last? And how much of that is going to be dictated by how Brandon Garcia does in the minors. How left handed hitters fair against these right handed relief pitchers who are going to be facing them and can they manage it or they're just getting destroyed in late game lefty situations where these hitters and not just the dodgers. I mean, I think we kind of expect that for these first three games. But once you get into the regular season rhythm, are you routinely getting burned by left handed hitters late in games? Because if you are, you might have to rethink this a little bit. You might have to come out at a different way. But then if nobody, none of your left handers are worthy of that spot, there's only so much you can do if you're the organization to, to kind of fill that void. It's going to be really weird. Yeah. It's going to be interesting. I mean, in an ideal world,

6:15they're, they're just more flexible and dynamic than, than this. But these are the guys who they felt more comfortable about executing and, you know, Kevin Ginkell as reverse splits and Juan Mario as reverse splits. They have some guys that they feel relatively comfortable with in these matchups. Andrew Hoffman is another one. But it's, it's a little bit different when you are the go-to guy when it's, you know, Shohei Otoni, Kyle Tucker and Freddie Freeman do up and, and you're the guy's going to have to go get them in the eighth inning or the seventh inning. I haven't been following this super closely, but I am somewhat surprised. And maybe again, this is just because of what happened with Jalen Beaks last year. I was kind of expecting them to pull a lefty off of the scrapbeat, you know, and, and plug them in like they, it worked a great success last year for Jalen Beaks. They know on our show, we've been talking about Joey, Lukazy for the last couple of days, him or somebody like him. But again, I, like I say, I haven't really been following it super close to, you know, he was out there. So he was out there, some Kyle Nelson was out there. Lukazy was out there. I don't know who else got let go or who

7:16else might be. And maybe they're still looking. Maybe I think rosters have to be submitted today. It's amazing. They've already announced their opening day roster. But yeah, I mean, I think ultimately you take a look at what's out there and you look at who you've got and maybe they've just felt better about the Mario Hoffman. And you're right. If they were going to do something, they would have done it by now. Yeah. I just for the last, I mean, today's Wednesday, since like Sunday, I was really kind of wondering, is there going to be that guy who is out there that they would pursue? And obviously they didn't know. I don't think that I looked at it. This was something I'd been thinking about for a while, but just in general, DH first left East because we've, we kind of know what the lineup is going to look like against right East. We do know what the lineup is going to look like against right East. Maybe minus couple order things and how it shakes out. But against left East, it's kind of interesting how they might be able to use the DH spot. I assume Tim Tawa is going to feature pretty prominently there. Whether he's the DH or he's in the field and they can DH some other guys. Right. Just because he has the defensive versatility,

8:16I would think that he just kind of slides in for Paven and then the rest of the starters are pretty much the same. But like, I don't know. We'll see exactly how it works out with how Alec fares against left East early in the season or, in fact, just, you know, what the timelines are for some of the guys getting back, namely, Lordus Griel. Sure. So I think Tawa would probably get a lot of the run there. But I just looked at it because like, against right East, it's pretty straightforward. But against left East, I think there can be some moving parts that we're not seeing. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, I'm just kind of thinking off the top of my head, I mean, to get Gabby's bat in the lineup more often, would you consider him as a DH potentially against left-handed pitching? That's tricky because if something, you know, knock on word, word to happen to James McCann and you have to move Gabby into the catcher spot. Just kind of workshop in this is the DH and then we get Ryan Nelson hitting in the eighth inning again. Yeah. Yeah. You're right. You know, you're just good. I was just kind of workshopping it in my head,

9:18like, like, if you wanted to try to get his bat in more often because of the catcher, I'm just counting that it, maybe that can happen. But that's just the risk. Yeah. Of course, because that's something where to happen to McCann, then then you're like, you say, you got Ryan Nelson hitting in the eighth. Who knows? Maybe it's something pretty good. But they want. All right, let's get onto some bigger picture stuff. So opening day, Thursday, I think, you know, projections and stuff are kind of similar on what the expectations are for the Diamondbacks externally. Yeah. When you look at kind of the national baseball media, it's kind of like around 500 is what a lot of people are expecting of this team. Which I think is fair, considering they won 80 games last year. Let's kind of dive into the Diamondbacks will be good to this season if and what has to happen in order for this to happen. Let's you go first. What do you think is the thing that is non-negotiable that this team will have to do in order to have a successful season this year? Non-negotiable. Okay. I think it's in order for them to truly be

10:20successful. I think the non-negotiables are that that at the very minimum, Zach Galen and Merrill Kelly will have to have typical Zach Galen and Merrill Kelly seasons. Now, I think there's a little more risk in saying that than maybe in other years, you know, especially Zach in the season that he had last year. I think certainly those two at the top until Corbin comes back, they have to have what we would consider to be typical Zach Galen Merrill Kelly years. And then I think beyond that, the rotation just has to get deeper and has to get better. I think, and I know it's a very general thing, but I think Ryan Nelson has to continue along the trajectory that he's on. And then one of the two between fought and Erod have to take a leap, have to have to be better, have to improve. And I know it's basically a very non-specific way of saying the whole rotation's got to be better, but the whole rotation's got to be better.

11:20And they don't they'll be fine if Erod is a 500 pitcher who pitches to a four ERA. I mean, it won't be, but that means that fought's got to take some sort of a leap. I just think the bullpen is so uncertain. You want your starters going not as early on in the season for obvious reasons, but you want your starters going as deep into these games as possible. And if you have another season where your starters ERA or in the lower third of Major League Baseball, you're doomed. Yeah. So I think in general, it starts there, but specifically, I'd kind of narrow it down to one of fought or Erod having taking a step forward. And certainly, Ryan Nelson continuing the success that he had a year ago, improving that that's real. And that's not a fluke. In addition, the Zach and Merle. Yeah. I had put his little pressure on the bullpen as you could possibly. Yeah. There's a little better way of saying it as you could possibly put. But yeah, to your point, Zach Allen's going to step the tone for this thing. It's not only just going to be the one start on opening day with everything going on, but he's just got to find a way to continue what

12:23he was doing last year. He went in the off season, kind of focused physically on being, you know, in better shape, better athleticism. He's throwing the ball a bit harder this spring. Obviously, we saw what he was able to do in the second half last year. He's got a good run, working with Brian Kaplan. I think they found some answers there. So yeah, obviously, it's a huge year for him. He's going to try to get paid at the end of the year. But for the Dbacks, it was a heck of a move. And you can't say enough to get him back given how unlikely it was that they were going to have Merrill and Zach back. Yeah. And just imagining what this rotation, it like, let's say they didn't get Zach Allen back. And Merrill Kelly is missing the first couple starts. Like, who's, I mean, it probably would be Joe Ross, who would be the one starting these games. And then you'd have somebody else's your long reliever or trying to piece it together in some injuries. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. But it's I totally agree. It's a massive year for those two to just give the Dbacks the stability that they had been used to from the top of the rotation for years. I really like what we saw at a Ryan Nelson. Obviously, he went a great year last year. But I really like what we saw to Ryan Nelson in spring as well. I mean, the fastball's playing so well.

13:27He's even harder than he had been. He's feeling good later into outing some last couple of times, which is great. And he's feeling even more comfortable by the year with the slider and the secondary stuff. I'm smiling because this doesn't have anything to do with anything other than we're talking baseball here. But anecdotally, when we did our fantasy baseball draft over the weekend as an auction, I got Ryan Nelson for like three bucks. And I, and I, I felt really good about that. Now I could be wrong because I think I did the same thing with thought like two years ago or a year ago, but I felt really, really good about I think there's the potential for real breakout from right now. So like real, oh, everybody sits up and takes notice. Like around me and I'll start I think he's got, I think it could potentially be that kind of season for Ryan Nelson. And if he does have that and you do get the stability from the top, that takes so much more pressure away from the bottom of your rotation. From thought it looks. From E-Rod, absolutely.

14:28Absolutely. Obviously you're counting on thought to improve from last year. Cannot have a five 25 ERA or five, whatever it ended up being by the end of last year. And there are reasons to be optimistic in terms of how his slider has played the spring. And if that can be a weapon against righties like it was in 2024 when it became a weakness last year, that just opens up a lot more for him. And then obviously E-Rod just being in better shape and throwing the ball the curve ball the way he was at the end of last season. There are reasons to be optimistic about the rotation while there are obviously a million questions about the bullpen. This rotation is going to have to live up to some of those expectations in order to take away some of that. What else is going to have to take away some variability is the defense. It's something that we talk about for a year now since they played their first game last year and did not look sharp defensively. That's again, taking away pressure from your bullpen, take away pressure from your starting rotation. The defense, it profiles is better, right? I mean, or not, if you watch them in the world baseball classic. I mean, the guy was making a highlight play every single day. Carlos Santana is

15:31a better defender than they had with Josh Naylor last year. He's a better defender than Paven Smith is out there. And I really like what we saw from Jordan Lawler defensively in the outfield the spring. And however they want to maneuver it with him and Alex Thomas, I think that you're going to have an extremely athletic outfield with those two in Corbin Carroll, with Jorge Broso when you throw him out there with Sinta when you throw him out there. They just have a very athletic defense. And it feels like it could be like not just like a step better, but a huge step forward from where they were last year. It's almost mandatory. I think for them to be better. I mean, if it's the one thing, it's obviously been one of their main identities for the last at least five years under Tory, they've really hung their hat on their defense. And I think, you know, if you look back at some of the success they had after the trade deadline, a lot of that was rooted in the fact they just played better defensively. And just playing a cleaner brand of baseball wasn't the only reason why they played the way they did the last two months of the season, but it was a big reason why they played the way they did. I feel, I feel, I feel like last year,

16:33and even the year before to a certain extent, since the World Series years, they had kind of gone away from that identity a little bit and profiled more towards the sluggers and the long ball and trying to get a little more juice in the lineup. And it does feel like they've kind of had their roundabout moment now where they went. And on second thought, this is actually what we're going to be about because it's worked for us in the past. Hopefully they have enough slug because of it now. Yeah. I mean, run prevention was such a big phrase that they were using going into last year. Yeah. And, you know, they still had a similar defensive profile within, you know, Geno 3rd and then a little bit first base. And, but the big thing was obviously, I'm incredible investment into the pitching staff by bringing in Corbin Burns, who had already paid for Edward Rodriguez. You still had Jordan Montgomery on the on the staff. And it just, you know, part of the run prevention is you got to take runs away with your defense, and you got to give your pitchers a chance. And we just didn't see the defense do that as well as you would have liked to last year. Yeah. Now it's kind of come full circle. Okay, if we're going to really go into,

17:35we need to be a good run prevention team, starting pitching and your defense is a good place to start. And then you hope that the bullpen can hold on, which is could be an adventure. All right, my next one is recapture an identity with your team. I think athletic, create that kind of chaotic style of baseball on the bases. They have the personnel to do that. If they do get the seasons, you would hope for out of a Jordan Lawler, an Alex Thomas, you know, a Jorge Barossa and Tim Tower are just really solid role players for you who can come in, work walks, get on base, steal bags, score for the top guys in the order. We know what to expect out of Catelle Marte, her older Pradomo and and Corbin Carroll. I see there's high expectations for Gabby Marano to take another leap forward. Yep. You'll see what you get out of the Nolan Arnato, Carlos Santana duo. But other than that, if you can just have guys at the bottom of your order, be able to work counts, get on base better than they had been in the past or well, let me back

18:35check on that. Pradomo was amazing at it. Yeah. And that's why he became so valuable for them until he graduated, until, you know, basically graduated to the front of the order. Yeah. If you can get somebody to kind of do a version of that, then nobody's Pradomo. But if Lawler can, you know, slug a little get on base a lot, work the walks, have the better at bats that we've seen. If Alec can do a little bit of that, which is what we've been waiting for for years for him, yeah. Then it just sets you up and makes you that much deeper of a lineup for, and it gives the top guys more opportunities to kind of take you home in a lot of these games. No one that we were going to talk about this. I was I was thinking about it. I framed it in my head in a similar way, like somebody in the bottom two thirds of your lineup has to emerge. You know, so somebody, you can't just have the three guys and think you're going to go where you want to go with that. Somebody's somebody, and I say down there, it's two thirds of your lineup, but somebody within that two thirds has to have, and really I was thinking of it more like two of your two thirds

19:36of your lineup has to, so whether it's Alec and Lawler, whether it's Lawler and Gabby, whether it's Aronato having a throwback season and posting more closer to his, not even his career averages, just his, like even from two years ago, that version of Aronato would be productive, I think in this offense. I feel like the Diamondbacks have three sure things in their lineup right now. Maybe four if you want to count Gabby, but I don't. So I'm going to say three sure things. I think they need closer to five sure things in their lineup where you go, okay, those guys are going to produce and do the things that you're talking about. I think it's a, and this would be one of my, I think it's a huge year for Gabby. You were on our show yesterday, and I asked you about him specifically. I just think he needs to say healthy. He needs to, you know, that's been a challenge for him, obviously. And I think until Gurel comes back, and maybe this changes a little bit when he does, you just need a reliable, run-producing

20:37option in the middle of this lineup, because I just don't know if they have one. Be out once you get past the first three. I think that makes it a huge year for Gabby to, as you point out yesterday, he had the best offensive year of his career last year. He was very productive. It was just limited because of how much time he missed. Yeah. He needs to, there's a step and he needs to take it, I think, offensively this year for the debats. I think so too. And we've seen signs. He's sitting the ball very hard and spring. Yep. The homers are obviously, they're like, whoa, I can't believe you did that. You can't always count on that, but it is a good sign that he's put in a charge in the baseball, so the way that he has been, you're totally right, because you can't have an offense where it's like, all right, the top three, single double, double, boom. And then you're just kind of done. Yeah. A couple of innings. And then you have to jump started again. And then you're done. You had to continuously put pressure on the opposing pitcher, on the opposing defense, on the opposing manager to make moves. Yeah. And if you can do that early in series that puts more pressure on them later in series, depending on how they have the maneuver. And maybe do your point and throw more pitches. Yeah. It's, it's Alec and Jordan

21:41at the bottom. And, you know, and it becomes eight, nine, one, two, three versus one, two, three, four, five. And then you're also not reliant on, you know, Nolan or Santana or like you would obviously love to get what you can get out of those guys. Yeah. If you're internal younger guys can take the steps forward that, you know, we would be hope to see. It just takes a lot of pressure off of some of those other guys to obviously produce and pull their weight, but not necessarily have the, you know, fountain of youth kind of season that maybe they might need to if some things don't go right for the younger guys. So that's an interesting one. Uh, I don't know. Did you have another one? I had one more listed off. No, boy, give me yours. Uh, can the bullpen be less traumatic? They led the National League in blown saves last year. I don't know. Can Dave walk by the candy jar out in the lobby there without getting a Reese's peanut butter cup? It's, uh, you might be asking the same question, but it's so hard to come back the next day with the same kind of

22:42fight and energy when you blew a six to three lead in the ninth inning. Oh, we saw it. They struggled last year to hit the day after a blown save. Um, I forget what the exact number was, but we just were like midway through the season because it was like most of the time they blow a save the next day. It's, it's just flat. It's just hard to come out with the same fire as a competitor when you feel like you have a game one. Mm-hmm. And that was an identity of the team last year. No game is over whether they were up five runs or down five runs because we saw them come back like that Atlanta game, like that game where they exploded on Robert Suarez back at chase field to beat the Padres. But then you have the Brighly game and you have, it just, there was so much like uncertainty aiming to aiming on how this game was going to end. Can it just be a little bit more stable to keep everything kind of a little bit even? I don't know, but that would be a massive development for them in order to kind of keep it together until you get your A.J. puck back until you get, you know, and J. Martin's going to be way down the road. So I don't know how much

23:43you want to count on that. Yeah. At least get into a more secure spot with your bullpen. Maybe some younger guys pitching well and Reno and can help you there too. I think that this is going to be, this will be the really fascinating thing to watch early on in the season is just how much rope does Tori give the guys that he's trusted throughout the years, and how quickly does he pivot from them if they fail? Talking specifically about Ryan Thompson, Kevin Gankle and Paul Seewald, you know, like those are his horses, those are his guys. Tori is a very trust is a big thing for him. I think, I think comfort to a certain extent is a big thing for him in that he knows what he's getting with those guys. And if before those things start to manifest itself and grow, how quickly does he say, okay, you know what I said? Second thought, Gankle's not being particularly effective in late innings. I need to pivot now, you know, to Lewisca or Clark or something else. Or do we, do we start the season with a different alignment than what we're expecting? I mean,

24:46maybe I'm, maybe I'm, maybe I'm expecting the wrong things and expecting that it's going to be Thompson in the seventh, Gankle in the eighth, Seewald in the ninth, like we just got so accustomed to back in 23 and 24. Maybe he'll come right out of the shoots with something different, but if he doesn't, and it's more the same, how long, how much of it not working is going to have to happen before Tori decides, okay, before this thing, for this wildfire gets out of control, I'm going to put it out right now and we're going to change some roles very quickly. I don't care what you did for me in the past. I need somebody who can do it for me right now. I don't know, I don't know the answer to that. Yeah, it's going to be fast. Just because I mean, you think about, like, and in some ways, the rise of Shelby Miller last year was very, was like evidence of that. He quickly, very quickly, if I remember right, went from a, okay, he's intriguing to high-leveled guy, right? And it was partly because they just didn't have any options. They felt like they could trust down there, especially when the injuries happen. But how quickly does Tori pivot, I think, is a, is a big question for me. How much trust can younger guys build early, too? Yes.

25:50Like, you know, Lois, because the obvious choice for like, if, you know, Seawall doesn't getting it done necessarily, or if, you know, they want to keep Ginkgold and Thompson and more set up roles. Like, I can slide back there, but maybe Taylor Clark, well, we'll see what he looks like early on, you know, really good year last year. How many months of like Juan Mario pitching lights out would it take for him to maybe slide into the back end? It's a great question. It's a great question, man. Yeah. Somebody comes, what if Kate Strauts awesome and Reno for the first month of the season comes up and just continues that and he's just filthy? I wonder how much it'll take. And do they have the luxury of months or is it weeks, you know? Like, like, can they afford to wait two months before they trust Juan Mario or Hoffman or are those guys pressed into needing to be trusted almost right away because you just don't want to set the same tone and identity that you had a year ago, it's, it's going to be fascinating to watch. Or Paul Seawall'd found what he needed to with the extra tick in his velocity and it's fine. Yeah, he's fine.

26:51Okay. Let's move on to schedule because obviously a theme of the DMX this year is going to be be competitive and hold on and stay afloat until you get your guys back and you can kind of improve as the season goes on. Yeah. The schedule is going to make that really hard because it is extremely difficult to climb out of a deep hole early. James McCann had a good quote the other day where he said like as a veteran, well, let me pull it off real quick because it was good. So what he said was you're going against defending champs and they're in their individual opponents talking about the first series. That's one thing as a veteran that I try to remind guys is that while you can't win the division or make the playoffs in the first month, you definitely can lose it. And I looked this up on MLB.com and they had since the wildcard era started. So that's 1995. Okay. There have been nine teams that have started 10 and 15 or worse through 25 games and either won the division or earned a wildcard spot. Nine teams. Yeah. 10 or 15. 10 and 15. 10 and 15 or worse. Yeah, through

27:52that won the division or won a wildcard or won a wildcard. Yeah. So it is it does ran sure you can't win your division early, but you certainly can fall out of the race if you get buried by your early season schedule. And the early season schedules is really tough as we've talked about, but let's just kind of go through it to map out what we're looking at. It's three at Chavez ravine against the Dodgers. It's three against the Detroit Tigers and they are lined up to see Terrick's Google in that series. It's four against the Braves who we talked about on the NL pod had some not great news and then since then Spencer Strider got hurt. So more not great news, but that's still a very talented teams particularly with the offense. Three in Queens against the bets, three at the Philadelphia Phillies, three at the Baltimore Orioles are looking to bounce back. Just signed Peter Lonzo got Ryan healthy to be the closer. Three against the Toronto Blue Jays. Then you have three against the Chicago White Sox. Better take care of that series. Yep. Then you have two against the Padres in Mexico City. Three at the Milwaukee Brewers who I think I underrated again just diving deeper into the Milwaukee

28:55Brewers. The more I'm like, man, there's a lot of depth here. I think I might have underrated them a little bit when we talked about them last time. Okay. And then three at the Chicago Cubs. And then it's three versus the Pirates who might be better this year with the offense. Three versus the Mets. Three at the Rangers. And then it lightens up a little bit after that. But in their first 11 series, it's eight of the best 11 teams by Fan Graphs projections with their with their standings. So yeah, it's going to be really hard. And it's, you know, it is what it is. It's early in the season. Maybe not everyone's up their best. Maybe some teams fall out that we don't expect. But it's just a lot of talent that they're going to have to be facing on the schedule. It's going to be hard. It's going to be really hard to stay in it. And it's going to be such a like, oh, you cannot fall too far behind or else what are the guys coming back to? Yeah. And it, it really is not worthy for me in that a big chunk of those teams, the four against Atlanta, the three against New York, the three against Philly, the two against San Diego, three against Milwaukee,

29:56three against Chicago, three against Pittsburgh, three more against New York. I know. I mean, seriously, it is just a big heaping platter of every single team you need to do well against to separate yourself or at least try to stay afloat in this wild card race. You get right out of the shoot. I mean, I'd love to almost like wave a magic wand and just flip the first half schedule with the second half schedule. And in the theory that it would, it has to be a softer landing than this. If I were able to flip the, the schedules just to give yourself a chance to get Corbin Burns back and have it matter to get AJ Puck back and have it matter. I agree with you about Justin Martinez. To me, he's, he's in a different category. Yeah. I think he's going to be, he's going to be pretty far off. If the question is, can they, I mean, the answer is, I don't know. I mean, I really don't, it depends on, it would say a lot of they can. It would say a lot about what the trajectory of the season can be. If, if they come out of this 15 and 15 or,

30:58I don't know, 21 and 18 or whatever it is, that would probably say a lot about the trajectory. 18 and 21. I mean, even just stay three games under 500, four games under 500. That's a huge win. Yeah. It's a huge and he hates it. That's such a low bar. But it gives you a chance to go on the second half run against an easier schedule. Yep. It does can kind of jolt you up the standings. But can they, I mean, I, I think, you know, we won't know until we know, but will Zach Wheeler be available for that Philly series? I don't know. We'll see. I mean, I know their rotation is good beyond Zach Wheeler, but you start looking at the little cracks in the foundation to wonder, like you mentioned, they're going to face scoobal. You know, when they, when they play the meds, do they get parolta? Do they miss parolta? You know, when they get, when they get them trying to think of another reason, when they get Toronto, you know, are they, are they missing some of their top guys? Are they not? I mean, there might be a little element of luck to it or bad luck to it. Right. If they see everybody, if they see all the best pictures

32:01in baseball, then then it's going to be, I don't know. I don't know if they're going to be able to navigate that or not. It's going to, I think, tell a big part of the tale of this season, how they do in these first 30 games. And it's going to really hammer home everything that they've talked about all spring about being a sharp baseball team that doesn't make it some mistakes, that doesn't beat itself, that cannot afford to beat themselves with that kind of a schedule. Everything that they hope to have accomplished in spring, it's going to be put to the test for a year early because you just, you can't have slip ups and play well in a schedule that's tough. Yeah. All right. A few predictions. Okay. How many all stars does this team have? Okay. They will have, that seemed like a big number. I think I'm not the number. I think I'm at the same number, but it's, it does feel like a lot, it does feel like a lot will go right. Four feels like a, a lot. That's what they had in 23. But that, but to me, it's Ketzel, Corbin, Haraldo, and Ryan

33:02Nelson. That's who I had. I think those are their four all stars. That's the case then, then things are going to be better than we think. Then things have gone right. You know, I, I, I think the first, they're incredibly top heavy or that's two or that's two. I've got them down for four. Okay. Home run leader on the baseball team. I'm going to go with Ketzel. That's probably who I was going to go with because he hit 28 last year and he missed basically most of April. And Corbin, Carol, be your other candidate. Yeah. I just think there's a chance he starts slow because of the lack of volume with, you know, he's, he's a little behind in terms of the at-bats and all that kind of stuff. It's been training having this time. Ketzel, so a number. Give me, he hit 28 last year. He hit 36 the year before. I'm going to stick with somewhere closer to 36. I'll go with 34 home runs. Okay. I was going to say 32. Okay. 32 homeers.

34:02I know you didn't ask for that, but I was just curious for you to know. No, perfect. Prospect will come up and make the biggest impact on this team. Does, I mean, the, the low-hanging freedom here is where it's right, right? Yeah. I mean, he's, he's the low-hanging freedom here. The non-RineWall Schmidt prospect is going to come up and make the biggest impact. Or, I mean, it's an interesting question. How much of an impact is RineWall Schmidt going to have the opportunity to make versus maybe a reliever or a starter? Could I use Brandon Garcia in an option? Sure. I mean, because I think there's just such a need. Yeah. That if, if he could, if he could just figure it out, you know, and, and hit the stuff is tremendous. Brandon Garcia. Brandon Garcia. I'm going to stick with Walchmann. I think in the second half, I don't think it'll be in the first half. I think the second half of the season. Okay. If they're still alive and they're playing well and they have the need for, you know, another middle of the order bat to come up here. But I do have half an eye on Lou James Groover, based on how we swing it in spring. If they need a

35:03cornering fielder at some point, just injuries or somebody's not performing up to standard. And Hunter Cran, I have a kind of a side eye on as a potential reliever who, you know, didn't pitch in a lot of like major league spring training games, but he threw the other day at chase and he threw in the spring breakout game and that fastball the way it sits on the top of the zone. He was the guy they got at the deadline last year who I kind of have a side eye on. Who leads the team in war this year? Last year was Pradoma. I was going to say Pradoma. Yeah, put me down for Pradoma. Okay. I was his war last year. It, ever see, it varies a little bit, which is a fan graphs and baseball reference, but seven. Okay. That's seven. That's a good pen. I'm also going to lean. No, I'll go with Corbin Carroll. Even if he starts the season slow, I think it can make up the difference. It's between the two of them. No, no disrespect to catalogue between it's between the two of them. I expect to tell we'll just miss more games than the other two. Yeah. But with Corbin, like even if he starts slow, one of my predictions is

36:08he's going to be like the hottest hitter in the league in July and just kind of make up a lot of the difference there anyway. And defensively, he was really good last year and he's back with the glove and should continue to make strides defensively there. Okay. Do you have a record? Yes. What is it? The website asked for this. Put me down for 84 and 68. 84 and sixth. 84 and 78. 84 and 78. Same record as I had in 23. Okay. I don't think it's good enough to get a wild card spot. Okay. But 84 and 78, but missing the playoffs. I have them at 82. Okay. Just I think there's just a lot of variance. So what can happen, especially with the pitching staff, I would be surprised if they're not competitive. I think even with the tough steps scheduled to start the year, if they fall a little behind, I can see them climb back. They just can't fall too far behind. I'd say what I'd also be surprised by two. I think and sorry, I know we've lived this movie before. I think they'll be in play for the last wild card spot going into the final

37:09week of the season. I even though I think the depth of the National League wild card race works against it a little bit in that I think all these teams will kind of beat each other up other than the cream of the crop. I think the Cubs will separate. You know, the Mets or the Phillies, one of them, probably both of them will separate. But when it comes to everybody else, when it comes to wild card team two through the third team that doesn't make the wild card, like those five teams, I think they're going to be beating the crap out of each other. It's all year long. It's a mess. And I think because of that, the threshold to get in isn't going to be that high because they're all going to be about the same. So I think 84 missing the playoffs, but I wouldn't be surprised if 85 is what it takes to get the last spot. I think it's going to be close. 85. Yeah. I agree with you. I think they will be in the race towards the end of the season, whether the last couple weeks or the last week of the season. It was really hard for me to pick a final wild card team though, because I feel pretty good about my five. I feel good about Dodgers,

38:10Mets, Cubs, Phillies, Brewers. I am just that last one is such a difficult pick to make. To me, the last two, I feel good about the top four. You know, I feel good about Mets, Phillies, Cubs Dodgers. I don't feel great. I don't feel great about anybody else, like I say, from two, three, and then four, five, and six, like those, which those see it's it's Brewers. I don't like the Padres. I don't think it's going to be the Padres. I don't think it's going to be the giants, either. I mean, I don't love the giant. I think it's I think we're having a Brewers, Braves pirates conversation. I think there's a there's a there's a world in which the pirates could be in it. They have just the best pitching staff in the league, which is on the table. And they did just enough offensively, right, to make themselves better. I could be wrong about the West, but I don't I like the giants a lot better than the Padres. If I'm going to put any Western team in there other than the Diamondbacks, I'm going to it's it's not the Padres. I really

39:11think they're not going to be that great this year. I have that flipped. I just I just trust the Padres pitching more than I trust. I think that is exceptional. And of course, you talk about top three or four hitters and the Padres are are loaded. I just I just feel like their rotation is it's a little if yes. It's a little if it's a little but then Walker Bueller's in it. Yeah, right. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. We'll see. It's been a few years since since Walker Bueller has been Dodgers Walker Bueller. All right. That's what we got opening day. We're it's here. We're excited. It's Thursday night. It's on NBC and peacock at Dodger Stadium. It's three against the Dodgers Thursday, Friday, Saturday and back at Chase Field for the home opener on Monday for Dave Burns and Alex Winner. Thanks for watching and listening ain't no fang and we'll see you when the regular season starts. Thanks so much. Do you love romcoms? Do you wish you could talk about Christmas movies year round? Then we have the perfect podcast for you, Holmarke's podcast. Throughout the year, we cover all things romance holiday and Holmarke, including recaps of every Holmarke show,

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