S8 Ep543: Cuba Faces Total Grid Failure Amid Severe National Oil Shortages Evan Ellis describes Cuba’s widespread blackouts caused by aging infrastructure and lack of fuel, while the US facilitates humanitarian oil shipments to private entities. (5)

0:00Tax season has arrived and doing taxes without the right help can feel overwhelming. Into it, TurboTax is here now to guide you through it with confidence. Match with a TurboTax full-service expert who handles everything for you from start to finish. Your dedicated expert checks every single deduction and credit to help you get the best possible outcome so you can feel confident you're getting every dollar you deserve. And the best part, you'll see real-time updates on your expert's progress right on your phone while you live your life. Plus, you get unlimited expert help at no extra cost, even on nights and weekends during tax season. Visit TurboTax.com. Only available with TurboTax full-service experts, real-time updates only on iOS mobile app. I'm John Batchford. This is the New World Report. War in the Middle East is not the only story that is critical to understand

1:03as we move into a landscape about energy and about those who prosper and struggle with energy. That is the America's story. And I welcome Professor Evan Ellis of the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute to lead us through the energy story. There are positives, very few, there are mostly negatives and there is the unknown of energy. In the Middle East, hundreds of tankers are lined up to leave the Gulf when and if the Hormone Strait is open. And that is not clear that that can come for four or five weeks. What I can tell you is the timeline is insecure, but there is suggestion now that the campaign launched by United States and Israel will last to Easter time and after perhaps. So those tankers lined up in the Gulf have a long way. That is the energy on the Eurasia part of the world. The Brent crude price higher than the West Texas price on the America side of the

2:10world. We're going to start, however, not with energy being delivered and for a price, but energy not being delivered and that is Cuba. Professor, a very good evening to Cuba is a crisis now, not an Easter, not when democracy comes to Cuba now. What we have again in these last hours, Cuba hit by widespread power blackout amid U.S. oil chokehold, the metaphor that the Reuters chooses. The Electric Company Union Electric, UNE, said the blackout was caused by an unexpected outage at Antonio Gutaris' thermoelectric plant, about 100 kilometers east of Havana, cutting electricity in the in the far west and central eastern provinces. Power was also out in Las Tunas province as substations met a function, a company official told state television. The reports are failure everywhere as the electricity surge then takes

3:18down what is working. In other words, the blights don't blink out all at once if I understand, it's province by province, it's city by city, completely unreliable, but without electricity, there is no food security, there is no medical security, there's no delivery possible because electricity is bumped by the lack of oil being delivered to the island. So at your understanding, there were reports that the U.S. was permitting resale of Venezuelan oil by a private vendors to parts of the Cuba economy that are not the military and not the government. That's all I have. You raise a couple of very important issues, so certainly starting with Cuba, of course, the key consideration is that the country's energy generation depends almost entirely on oil, as does, of course, of transportation and other key sectors. And so with that aging,

4:19oil-fired thermal electric power generators, the fact that Cuba has not been getting the oil that it needs. It needs about 100,000 barrels per day. It produces about 40,000 barrels on its own. And so with a cut off previously of oil from Venezuela, it's a former chief patron, as well as a shipment that's previously from Russia. And shipments, at least earlier in the year, from Mexico, which have now been stopped by the Scheinbaum administration, Cuba has moved to severe rationing. What that means, however, is not just less oil for various different things for the trucks for a power generation, which has compounded the regular energy outages and shortages. Sometimes power can be out as much as 20 hours or 22 hours in some cases per day. But it also puts strain on that aging system, which causes failures, as you alluded to. And so the most recent headline was something that happened, apparently, beginning at one of the older thermal electric plants, the Antonio Gutierrez plant, the East Afavana, when power went out there, probably a

5:26supply-related issue that caused a cascading failure, especially across a West Cuba. Piner, that Rio, I understand, was one of the areas principally affected. And so again, that just contributes to the existing difficult situation that that Cubans face. Because as you alluded to, John, if you can't get the electricity, that means you can't keep refrigerators going, you can't keep generators going to test substitute for when you don't have regular electric feeds. You can't get other things that you need, hospitals, schools, government services, etc. Now, as you alluded to, the U.S. government trying to address some of the humanitarian dimensions of this has said, okay, because we now effectively have de facto control over the Venezuelan oil shipments in order to help Cuba meet some of its humanitarian needs without benefiting the Cuban state or the Cuban military industry at Gaesa. We are essentially allowing

6:28licenses with companies tied to the United States, tied to the Trump administration, to export oil from Venezuela to private entities in Cuba. And so, in other words, companies that are private companies in Cuba can import things like gasoline. It's still unclear as to what specifically in the petroleum sector is allowed to be imported. But again, the idea is to meet some of those humanitarian needs and to empower the private sector in Cuba without benefiting the Cuban state. It's a delicate dance, but it should bring at least some relief to some of the basic needs, at least for fuel, if not electricity, for the Cuban people. There was talk, Evan, just talk, that there were negotiations, conversations, dialogue between Washington and Havana. Perhaps about the Secretary of State, Mr. Rubio, perhaps members of the State Department. Is there anything to it?

7:29There has been confirmed that perhaps Mark Rubio or others are talking with the grandson of Roe Castro, Guillermo Rodriguez Castro. And the reason for that appears to be that the current de facto president, well, legal president Miguel Diaz Canal, without the kind of okay of the founders of the revolution, the survivors of Fidel and Roe Castro probably doesn't have the power to make a fundamental deal with the United States. And so my understanding is the idea is looking for some type of deal, which while preserving the survival of the Communist Party in Cuba would allow Cuba to open up economically, would allow it to cease doing certain things that have created problems for the United States and others in the region, essentially a deal with the Trump administration, but essentially you need to get the okay of the Castro family, because if

8:32there are importance in Cuba's political legacy, before Diaz Canal can say, okay, we're going to cut a deal with the gringos. Diaz Canal, he's watching this talk of negotiation with a Castro. Is that a threat to him or is he expecting to be taken care of? My understanding is that Diaz Canal really just isn't in a position where he can agree to anything unless the founding members of Cuba's communist movement, or at least their successors okay that. So it's really more of a kind of a political and social thing. My sense is isn't a threat to his power per se. Indeed, Diaz Canal himself is called for what he calls urgent social and economic reforms, although that's been relatively vague to date, but my sense is that if they can come up with something that preserves the survival of the Cuban Communist Party, even at the expense of economic changes that might open up the economy to some degree to

9:34U.S. companies, that certainly Diaz Canal would probably be in line with whatever the Castro's or at least whatever Castro's grandson and the others that are being spoken with would agree to. But again, I think it's a very delicate negotiation. I think everyone's in survival mode at this point. Professor Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, Venezuela, I'm John Bash. Rewards programs are a lot like pop culture. They can be hard to keep up with, but with Venmo's new Rewards program, Venmo Stash, Rewards are so easy because the more you do, the more you get. And you choose the bundle of brands you get cash back at. It's giving fiscal queen. It's giving star. It's giving up to 5% cash back at your favorite brands. Just pick a bundle of your go-to spots to shop with your Venmo debit card and earn cash back at them. Do more, get more, with Venmo Stash. The Venmo Mastercard is issued by the bank or bank

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