S15 EP158: Hour 2 - Iran and Cruz

0:00Every afternoon, there are four things you need to know about. They tend to happen after about three PM Eastern. And before you get home, you might as well learn about them before you're on the evening news. That's my job. I'm Eric Erickson, tune in wherever your podcast are available on YouTube, Spotify, Apple, whatever. You'll get the four things to know in the afternoon. Search Eric Erickson or go to EricEerickson.com, forward slash four things to know for the links. Be more informed than your family and friends. Welcome to the Eric Erickson Show Podcast, our two. Welcome, it's Eric Erickson. Glad to have you with me. 877-973-745. What is going on with the Iran situation? There is a report now that the Iranians may have hit a hotel in Jordan. I am continuing to pay attention to this story to see how it develops

1:03as to what has actually gone on. I need to bring you up to date on some of the situation there. And I want to say this. I increasingly believe that the status quo is going to change before November. I think the Iranians are going to do something stupid. And I think the president is going to decide to go for broke. And I think the president is going to decide to go for broke in large part because the military is telling him they can't drag this thing out. The Secretary of Defense has extended tours until next year. And I got to say, I mean, pray for the ladies and then the lady boys of Thailand. The USS Abraham Lincoln has docked in patty on. Now I have been to patty when I was a kid. Patty was the resort on the coast in Thailand, South of Bangkok, where families would go.

2:04It was the very first place I ever played putt putt with my parents. They had this amazing putt putt course. And you would hit the ball and go up a ramp through a temple and ring the bell and come out on the other side of the temple and try to get in the hole. It was a ton of fun. I remember patty was the first place I ever saw an Indian elephant. You could ride the Indian elephant. It was a neat place. Patty is now where you go if you want an STD. I mean, these sailors and soldiers, they're going to be avoiding Donald Trump's personal Vietnam. For those of you don't know, Donald Trump said his personal Vietnam was avoiding STDs in the 70s. These sailors in particular are going to be engaged in Donald Trump's personal Vietnam for the next 24 to 48 hours in Thailand. May God have mercy on all their souls. I don't know if you've seen pictures of the USS Abraham Lincoln at Port. It looks rough. Now that happens at sea. Let's just be honest about this. It's covered in rust and grime. That happens at sea.

3:04The problem is that it has been gone for so long. The situation is far worse than it should be. And the Secretary of Defense is stretching things out. I saw an Admiral yesterday explained that we're an 11 aircraft carrier fleet in a 15 aircraft carrier fleet world. We have fewer aircraft carriers than we need. They're slow to be built. The President wants to outsource that mission he needs to get rid of the Jones Act, what he needs to do. But among other things, Iran itself is having economic trouble because of the oil situation. This is Secretary of Energy Chris Wright. So Monday was our record ever since the conflict began. Over 17 million barrels of oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz on ships on Monday. If you add the by-course bypass export pipelines, more than left the region in the pre-conflict. So is Iran trying to challenge that? Yes. Are there challenges? Yes. But this is the United States Navy and President Trump taking the one card out of Iran's hands,

4:08which is to try to hold the world economic hostage. That's what they've got. They're all in on it. They're causing some disruption. But they are losing that card. The President Trump is using the United States military might and alliances across the world that wither without Iran, oil and gas will flow out of the Iran-Being Gulf region. And it's half final question. The oil is flowing. Here's the problem. The markets need some convincing that things are okay. The markets are not doing spectacularly well. Brit is up again today at the $95 a barrel. West Texas crude is up $91 a barrel. Iran has fired missiles at Kuwait. It's the instability in the Middle East that is causing oil prices to go up again. The gentleman nice saw it. The hot dog place earlier. Like the President voted for the President three times very disappointed in what's happening right now.

5:09Diesel prices for him are over $6 a gallon. And those costs are having to be passed on to people, but it's hurting his business. Not all costs can be passed on. Sometimes people decline. This is the Secretary of Treasury Scott Becant. This is the final move for this regime after 47 years. You don't believe at this point that this regime will outlast this administration. It will end before the end of Trump's term. Is that your belief? I believe it will be much sooner because everyone says, well, sanctions don't work. First of all, Rob, we have never seen an economic isolation like this in history. We have new authorities, whether it's digital assets, maritime aviation assets that we are going after. But the real power here is the sequencing. So we had the high level kinetic military action, some of the greatest in history in terms of the precision and the destruction.

6:10Iran has no navy. They have no air force. We have substantially depleted their missile and drones. We have destroyed their missile factories. About 85% of those. So kinetic check. We have what President Trump calls the iron wall. We have the blockade up. Nothing is going in. Nothing is coming out of these Iranian ports. So the Iranians, if you could believe it, the second, third, the most energy rich country in the world has to import gasoline. So now they have gasoline lines and couple that with these crushing economic sanctions, it's just a matter of time. Just a matter of time, he says. Now there are those who say that no country has ever collapsed based on economic blockade. I'm just not sure that people understand the extended blockade if the blockade is as real as we claim. And there actually are questions about whether or not we're allowing the Chinese to sneak oil out of Iran.

7:13There are real questions about this. What the one more from Scott Bessent here. My message to everyone is a stay away. We all want this conflict to end. And the fastest way for the conflict to end is the if for no one to provide any support to this regime. We are going to sever every tie that they have from the outside world. For instance, last Friday, we sanctioned the Dubai branches of an Egyptian bank and they had provided more than $1.8 billion to the regime since 2025. We are going to systemically go through and take every bad actor like that out. We created new authorities for Treasury to be able to sanction the under arrow airlines maritime digital assets. So this is all hands on deck teams from Treasury State Department and DOW have gone out of the world and we are having very full some talks with anyone supporting the regime.

8:23Very full some talks. So can I let you in on something? We haven't really done everything that the Secretary of Treasury said he was going to do because we haven't gotten complete buy-in from people. However, we've gotten a lot of buy-in from a lot of countries who are ready to get this thing over with because they have decided that the sooner we get this over with, the sooner the global economy can turn around. There was some vinting at the G20 by the European allies that we are wrecking the world economy by continuing to do what we're doing. Not just that, but the tariff situation as well. In fact, Howard Lutnik was asked about the tariffs. If you just take a look at the GDP numbers, what happened is when the Supreme Court ruled against the president for tariffs and those tariffs came down, imports came flooding in. And the way we do GDP in America is we take on gross sales. So the big number of sales that every company in America makes and you subtract imports.

9:31So when all those imports come flying in starting February all the way through the next quarter that reduces the number of GDP by 1.6%. So it was going the other way. So if you took the court of before and you added the quarter after that's 1.85% GDP. That would put you well over 3% if the IEPA case with the Supreme Court had gone the other way. And you'll see the tariffs are going to be back in place right over the next couple of weeks. They'll be all back in place. And you'll see imports start to fall and you'll see GDP rise and just that calculus itself over 1.5 points are exactly right. That's part of the problem is the tariffs are coming back. He says and that's what the world is upset about. That's what Scott Besson is privately upset about. Besson is privately not a fan of the tariffs. He's a good team player. He's glad to defend them, but he doesn't like them. Let Nick is the big fan of tariffs and it is actually a problem.

10:37And it's a problem that collides with the problems of the straight of Hormuz and it's a problem that collides with the budget related to the war right now. There's a fiscal squeeze in Washington. The House and Senate have agreed to a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown until December 11th I think it is. And the fiscal squeeze according to notice comes as heads to faces problems on several other fronts senior military leaders are warning that a prolonged mid east operation. There's a roading readiness elsewhere. The Secretary of the Army, Dan Driscoll has left with lots of friction and the continuing resolutions, though keeping the government funded does not provide the 10 to billions of dollars. The Pentagon says it needs to cover the Iran operations, replenished munitions or sustained forces where deployments have been extended. Now comes word from the Washington Post, which had the big scoop on the on the Secretary of Defense orders book where everybody stationed the world and the notices that the generals and the ad rules are not too happy with the extension of the war.

11:42When Army Secretary Dan Driscoll told President Donald Trump last week he was resigning Trump suggested he could stay at least through the midterm elections. People familiar with the meeting told the Washington Post to show of support for a top Pentagon leader who is clashed with Hegsith. At the White House meeting last week where Driscoll told Trump of his plan departure, he also voiced concerns to the President about the damage he said Hegsith was doing to the Army. Like others interviewed for this article, they spoke on conditions of an anonymity in a statement to the Post, a spokesperson for the White House, disputed the characterization of the meeting. Driscoll submitted his resignation on Monday as the Post and others reported Driscoll had previously had heated arguments and disagreements with Hegsith, who has fired several of the Army generals, halted the advancement of other top officers and stymied Driscoll's top Army modernization initiatives. On Wednesday, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell declined to comment on whether Hegsith had sought Driscoll's departure. Parnell said any suggestion Hegsith was hampering modernization was a total fabrication. He was not immediately clear why Trump suggested that Driscoll stay on or why Driscoll chose to depart now.

12:46The President has given Hegsith wide latitude in reshaping the military's culture and leadership, and Trump has in the past departures back to the Defense Secretary's personnel decisions. Driscoll on Tuesday credited Hegsith for his role in Army modernization and called the opportunity to serve as Army Secretary, the honor of a lifetime. Driscoll's last day is today, Thursday. Driscoll has good standing with the White House and a direct line via JD Vance. They went to, they both served in Iraq and they went to Yale together. There are problems within the Pentagon. There's great dissatisfaction within the officer corps at Hegsith right now. And you can, you can blast away. And I know like if it were the, if it were the Biden administration, all the Democrats would be circling the wagons around the Secretary of Defense. It's same thing here. All the Trump supporters circled the wagons around the Secretary of Defense.

13:46When you got a guy like, like Driscoll, who's considered grown up and serious and understands the threats and he leaves. And essentially from what I'm told, made clear that he was leaving because he couldn't fix the situation and didn't think it was worth staying to be a paperweight. That should be a concern. And it is a concern for members of the House and the Senate who when they come back in the session next in the next few weeks, probably in October, they're going to come in very briefly. They're going to start asking very tough questions of the Secretary of Defense. There's growing concern among Republicans in the House and the Senate that Hegsith is too far out over his skis and it's not salvageable, but the president is loyal to a fault. And we'll defend Hegsith is more and more wording signs come. The situation in Iran is probably going to heat up rapidly here in the next few weeks because the Iranians with the economic stranglehold need to do something to try to break out of it. And the only thing they can do is military action and that may finally give the president the instead of he needs to go finish them off.

14:48Okay, I just friends, friends. I'm not going to put on phone calls about he haul the donkey. I just mentioned the story in large part because my daughter was here and said you should mention he haul the donkey. So I mentioned he hauled the donkey for my daughter, but I know I'm not we're moving on from he haul the donkey. We don't need we don't need phone calls on he haul the donkey. No, no, thank you. This is not an ad and I want to preface this is not an ad. I just I mentioned this on the radio a while back and we have gotten a number of emails from people asking me about this. And so I want to answer the question this thing called a bright mattress. I'd never heard of this thing and ours are being delivered next week. This is expensive. Y'all and I'm not going to get like a thousand dollars discount on it. My wife and I we stayed in an Airbnb up in North Georgia in the mountains with our kids and all of the rooms in the house had something called a bright mattress.

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17:56I see K save 20% and you will sleep so well at night under cozy sheets. My fellow Americans. I'm glad you're with me. Coast to coast to cost across the fruited plane. My view of this program is to give you the news first. And I'll tell you what I think about the news and I'll even take your full goals at 877 9737 425. But there are enough people in talk radio who just want to tell you what you want to hear. I actually want to tell you what's going on in the world so that you're more informed. So there's going to be smarter than everybody else out there. And we must turn our attention to 2028. I know some of you don't want to talk about 28 because we're not even through the election in 26. But behind the scenes these things are happening and again my job is to tell you the news and I can give you advanced notice on the news.

18:58So that you are smarter and more informed than all of your friends. Senator Ted Cruz is quietly calling around drumming up support to run for president in 2028. Let me tell you how the Republican Party works and my theory of everything about the GOP. This is this is why the Republicans got Trump in 2016. God rest his soul. It's all Dick Cheney's fault. Now I don't mean that disrespectfully and I have a warm affection for Leonard Dick Cheney. Dick Cheney was very kind to me when he was vice president. His wife has been very kind to me over the years. And I just I found them to be wonderful people. You can disagree with Dick Cheney. All you want on politics, although I rarely did. He was a wonderful human being and a great patriot in the United States. Donald Rumsfeld one time told me he put Dick Cheney in charge of Richard Nixon's price control effort because he knew that Dick Cheney opposed price controls.

20:05He would do his very best to obstruct the effort at price controls and was highly successful at obstructing Richard Nixon's agenda from inside the Nixon White House. But the reason the Republicans got Donald Trump in 2016 was because of Dick Cheney. This is my unwavering theory of everything political about the Republican Party. That's what actually happens. Let's let's step back in time. Richard Nixon runs for a reelection. Spiro Agnew has to step aside. Gerald Ford becomes vice president. Nixon resigns. Ford becomes president. Ronald Reagan challenges Gerald Ford and very nearly beats him. Ford wins. He loses to Carter. In 1980 Ronald Reagan ran. And the entire Republican establishment ran against Ronald Reagan.

21:17I mean the whole of the GOP ran against Ronald Reagan to stop him in 1980. And by the way you should know Gerald Ford behind the scenes was doing everything possible to stop Ronald Reagan. You had George H. W. Bush director of the Central Intelligence Agency run John Anderson Republican Congressman from Illinois. Phil Crane Republican Congressman from Illinois. Ben Fernandez the special envoy to Paraguay Bob Dole the US Senator from Kansas John Connolly the Secretary of the Treasury from Texas Howard Baker the Senator from Tennessee. Harold Strassen the foreign operations administrator from Pennsylvania Larry Pressler attempted to run from South Dakota. Low wicker was running from Connecticut. You had an entire establishment Gerald Ford decided not to run again. John Anderson stayed in and pivoted to be an independent.

22:20Bob Dole Howard Baker and George H. W. Bush consolidated the votes pushing out a Strassen and others. But Reagan won. And George H. W. Bush who got three million votes in the primaries and one Connecticut DC Delaware Iowa main Massachusetts Michigan Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico. He became Ronald Reagan's running mate. And then in 1988 Ronald Reagan term limited could run and Bush ran and became the running mate or became the leader. Now who who friends then ran will Bush ran in 2000 in 1992 against Clinton because he was the incumbent. And then in 1990 1996 what do they have to do they had to go all the way back.

23:26Which you should know however is that when George W. Bush ran in 1988 it was not a cakewalk for him not by any means was it a cakewalk for the for George H. W. Bush even though. He was Ronald Reagan's running mate look what happened who else ran Pat Robertson Bob Dole Jack Kemp peer Dupont Alexander Hagg who had been secretary of state. He didn't get a pass and who was in second place in 1988 who was in second place to George H. W. Bush in 1980 George H. W. Bush was second to Ronald Reagan became the VP in 1988 George H. W. Bush ran who came in second place Bob Dole Bob Dole came in second place.

24:28Two million three hundred thirty three thousand three hundred seventy five votes he won five states got two hundred five delegates and did not want to be vice president decline to be vice president didn't want anything to George H. W. Bush frankly didn't want Bob Dole either. So George H. W. Bush excuse me what would Dan Quail from Arizona. So Bush came in second to Reagan became the nominee in 1988 as vice president Bob Dole came in second to Bush in 1988 and became the nominee in 98 to 96 fast forward to 2000 George W. Bush runs who comes in second who comes in second to George W. Bush. John McCain why do we have Donald Trump as the presidential nominee in 2016 because Dick Cheney chose not to run in 2008 it would have been Dick Cheney's turn to run because he was the vice president.

25:38And John McCain could have challenged him and beat him or lost to him but Dick Cheney chose not to run and so you had the Romney McCain primary where McCain won and the Republicans went all the way back to 2000 and they re fought literally every single fight from 2000 at this time the McCain faction won a McCain lost to Barack Obama. So you go to 2012 who came in second in 2008 Mitt Romney and he became the nominee and again who came in second place to Mitt Romney in 2012 was a talk of me 2012. I think the president show this when I can't remember but I think it was Huckabee was it not who ran as a populist was it Santorum they was Santorum Santorum got six states Santorum gets six states Alaska Kansas North Dakota Mississippi Oklahoma Tennessee and then Peters out from there.

26:46There's no second place standing person with real popularity in 2016 the field is kind of open and you get Donald Trump Rick Santorum flames out no support my Cuckabee has come in. How could be has stolen some of the popular support that Rick Santorum represented who comes in second place in 2016 Ted Cruz Ted Cruz that's the last major time that that has happened in the we've we've essentially been at a holding pattern for Donald Trump since. So George W George HW Bush came in second place to Reagan in 1980 becomes the nominee in 88 with Bob Dolan second place Bob Dolan becomes the Republican nominee in 1996 there's no real viable person who runs in second place for him it opens the door you go back to the bushes you get George W Bush who kind of runs as as the replacement for his father comes in second place John McCain John McCain becomes the nominee in 2008 second place has been Romney Mitt Romney becomes the nominee in 2012.

28:02There is no one running in 2016 of the stature of any of them because Dick Cheney has chosen not to run so the fights have to go be re litigated all the way back to the year 2000 and then the door is wide open to someone like Donald Trump and Ted Cruz comes in second place and now Ted Cruz wants to run for president of the United States again but for the fact that JD Vance will be the sitting vice president of the United States and open to running with Trump's endorsement Cruz should be the nominee. From the Wall Street Journal the 2028 contest has not started yet and there's still a midterm election vice president Vance who's leading early polling of potential Republican nominees as campaigning for candidates but Cruz the Texas Senator and firebrand conservative is already putting in the legwork in Iowa hitting the podcast circuit and barking on a book tour he's been quietly asking people if they'd be interested in working on his campaign. Cruz told MS now the party has a coalesced around Vance. I'll certainly be part of the discussion he said several times this year he's condemned rising anti-Semitism on the right and targeted Republicans who like Vance have it separated themselves from Tucker Carlson Vance's allies have privately dismissed and scoffed at Cruz running arguing he wouldn't be a serious threat to the vice president Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are seen as the favorites.

29:17Those close to Vance he's focused on the midterms Rubio's been deferential publicly and privately that he won't challenge Vance. Cruz should be the Republican nominee following the pattern of the Republican party the guy who comes in second place is the nominee the next time around we've been in the holding pattern with Trump though for so long will it matter I don't know but Vance has problems one of the problems with Vance is the anti-Semitism. Vance is the Republican version of Abdul L Said al-Sahid will not distance himself from the anti-Semite Hassan Piker JD Vance will not distance himself from the anti-Semite Tucker Carlson by the way al-Sahid and Tucker and al-Sahid and JD Vance have the same economic policies JD Vance is a socialist light candidate JD Vance wants government he wants government industrial policy he wants tariffs he wants the end of the reserve currency there's not a lot of difference between the democratic socialist economic agenda and JD Vance JD Vance just says his is not socialism even though it is.

30:23There is an opening there and Vance's problem is with the anti-Semites he has coddled and cajoled I mean Nick Fuentes of all people called him out and said even though the JD Vance is he'd never go on a show like Nick Fuentes. Fuentes points out that JD Vance behind the scenes has been reaching out to all sorts of people like Nick Fuentes he wants their money he wants their support he wants their vote he just doesn't want to be associated with them in the same room and then a photograph with them. Fuentes isn't wrong Vance is playing with fire here and the problem with losing the Jewish vote is you don't have a significant vote in the Republican goal issue if you lose the Jews also you don't really it doesn't impact you with a lot of the donor class you know where it impacts you though Southern evangelicals JD Vance is Catholic there's already suspicion there and you have a dispensationalist wing of evangelicals who believe that we have to do everything we can to support Israel and they are very prominent in the Southern states in Republican primaries and JD Vance being surrounded by anti-Semites hurts him with those Southern evangelical dispensationalists it hurts him with the donor class which are very much pro-Israel.

31:32There is an opening the concerns that people close to crews have voiced to me are what happens if there's a free for all if four or five people get into the race and they're all significant to Santa's been one of them there's lots of buzz quietly behind the scenes about Glenn Youngkin what's he going to do the former governor Virginia will Brian Kim get in the race in Georgia he's maybe he runs those guys could crowd themselves out and consolidate Vance's position. But crews wants to run crews absolutely wants to run and if history is any guide but for the city vice president crews should be the nominee and here's the thing about the city vice president if Donald Trump's popularity continues to remain below 40% if the Republicans get blown out in November and by the way you should know a lot of Republicans think they're going to wiped out in November that they're going to lose races they should lose. Then suddenly the question becomes can JD Vance get away from Donald Trump in such a way to be the nominee or does crews have a persuasive argument that we need a fresh start as a party.

32:38Someone can make the case we need a fresh start I'm not sure crews is the guy to do it but if history is the guide crews should be the Republican nominee in 2028 short of the vice president getting in. Old glory bank was started because it wanted to make sure that conservatives were protected out there in the debanking trends that were agitated by the left if you want a great bank to work with go to old glory bank dot com slash Eric I have a checking account the savings account with them if you're active to your military veteran for Schroesfinder they waive some of the fees for you for the premium accounts like the interest bearing checking account. Go to old glory bank dot com slash Eric to find out the details if you're a business so here's what sets old glory bank apart one all their entire customer service base is US based they don't outsource abroad you're dealing with Americans their headquarters Oklahoma and if you're a business you get a business representative of old glory bank that's going to shurper you through so if you ever need business lending you have someone at old glory bank who has made it their business to know your business so that when it's time for your business to consider growing business lending things like that there's someone there this goes for you as well with you.

33:45This goes for you as well with the mortgage if you want to buy a house or glory bank has competitive rates and they assign you a person not a not a branch and so that person gets to know you can help you shape your mortgage package to get you the best competitive rate they do CDs again business checking you name it old glory bank dot com slash Eric old glory bank dot com slash Eric member FDIC equal housing lender terms and conditions apply. Greetings welcome 877 9737 425 Tom on the phones be patient please I want to get to your phone call but we got some breaking news I can't get to you to the top of the next hour but yeah let's talk about hexath. There is breaking news right now Maria Bartoromo is out at Fox business she's been there for 12 years it is lighting the internet on fire with speculation that she might be the new White House press secretary I know nothing about that. My buddy Mark Halperin this morning was saying that he actually suspects that we're not going to see a White House press secretary before the election.

34:48I don't know what I know however is that Maria Bartoromo has been a fixture at Fox and apparently no one saw this coming at all it's just a complete shock even inside Fox people are stunned that she is out. The network in a statement thank Maria Bartoromo for her contribution mornings with Maria will become mornings with Fox business using rotating anchors Wall Street transitions to Cheryl Cassone and others and Jason chaffetz fills in Sunday morning futures this weekend. Bartoromo who joined Fox business in late 2013 after two decades at CNBC strong reputation and business journalism there was no explanation for her departure will she be the press secretary we don't know. Perfectly snug wants to give you a perfectly snug night sleep I'm actually meeting with him this afternoon I've never met with him I'm a big fan of their product and I'm so delighted to advertise for him they're a mattress top you put it on top of your mattress.

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