S15 EP158: Hour 1 - Believing So Much That Is Not So

0:00Every afternoon, there are four things you need to know about. They tend to happen after about three PM Eastern. And before you get home, you might as well learn about them before you're on the evening news. That's my job. I'm Eric Erickson, tune in wherever your podcast are available on YouTube, Spotify, Apple, whatever. You'll get the four things to know in the afternoon. Search Eric Erickson or go to EricEerickson.com, forward slash four things to know for the links. Be more informed than your family and friends. And be more informed than your family and friends. And be more informed than your family and friends. Welcome to the Eric Erickson Show Podcast, hour one. Hello, my friends. How are you? It's Eric Erickson here across the United States. The phone number 877-973-745. If you text Eric, your ICK to 337-777, get the live stream, the show notes, everything. You want to get in touch with the show and follow along. The cooking videos are forthcoming.

1:02More importantly, if you text the word show to 337-777, come hang out with me October 10th at the Not Say For Radio Show. It's going to be a great time. I was going to talk about something else at the beginning of the show. But I've had a change. This happens on occasion. Occasionally, I got to talk about stuff that happens. Now, I want to begin with the saying that we all know, anecdote is not data. What does that mean? Well, I run into this all the time where people say, well, I like that guy. Well, you may like that guy, but most people don't when you look at the data. What is the data? Well, the public opinion polling, the polling averages, the focus grouping, the conversations had with people in politics around the candidate, or what not, you may like someone, but that doesn't mean it so. Your anecdote is not data. For example, a great anecdote.

2:05I get held up in the line at Chick-fil-A all the time. All the time I get delayed at the Chick-fil-A drive-through. And it's not like I'm ordering unique things. The data suggests the Chick-fil-A drive-through is the best drive-through in America. The most functional you get through the fastest. Anticotally for me, it's not. And I don't know why. Sometimes it is, but very often it moves very slow. Even though the data shows that cars get through the Chick-fil-A line faster than other drive-throughs. My anecdote is not the data, but I'm still convinced I'm right. Anticot is not data. I say all of that. To say a short time ago, an hour ago, I had an anecdote. And the anecdote is not data except that in this case, it corroborates the data. It shows what the data shows. It reflects the data.

3:07There is a hot dog place. I eat at not often. Every once in a while, I eat it. And an hour later, I reminded that was a bad idea. But they have these chill. It's the second oldest hot dogs in America. It's called New Way Weeners in making Georgia. These bright red hot dogs, I think the color of the hot dog is patented. Whenever my father comes to visit, he wants to go get a slow dog, which is one of their hot dogs covered in cold slow. I like the dog without. If you're a longtime customer, you know the dog without. It means the chili dog without the raw onions on top. So you get the chili dog without the raw onions. You get the steam bun. You get the gray, debudentable hot dog. It's a delicious combo. You can get the mega burger. My wife likes the grilled cheese sandwich. All my kids and my wife, they love the grilled cheese sandwich. It is the second oldest hot dog stand in America after Coney Island. The original restaurant sadly burned down a couple of years ago.

4:09And it was just two devastating fire. They put a place down kitchen fire that got out of control, but they're still around. It's still the same food. When I was a political consultant in middle Georgia, candidates would sometimes have fun razors. And the invite the old making the old white people money. And the country club money. And they would have new way hot dogs. And it would be a new way with candidate X, great branding. Still a great idea, new way with whoever you invite new way hot dogs. And all the old school people for making they love it. Second oldest hot dog stand in America. So I'm in the new way. And it advances. Aren't you Eric Erickson, which is usually the uh oh. But I said yes. He says he listens to me on the radio. On the local station here in town, W M A C 940 AM,

5:12where I got my accidental started radio years ago. In fact, the building is right across from the building in which I am sitting right now. Just on the other side of the building so I can't see out the window. Run by cumulus. It used to be years ago, 100 years ago, W M A Z. It was then to watch Mercer attain zenith. It was the radio station, my alma mater. It then became a TV station and a radio station and the radio station changed his call letters. At some point from W M A Z, which is the TV station here in town to W M A C. Watch making. Avoid crime, I guess. Sorry, in house joke here for those of us in middle Georgia. Nonetheless, I'm in the new way with this guy. What a distraction. Have I ever mentioned I got ADD? I'm pretty sure undiagnosed nonetheless. So I'm in the new way. The man has recognized me. He listens on the local radio station.

6:12He identifies himself as a small business owner and he drives a truck. And diesel is over $6 a gallon. He is not happy. Health care costs for small businessmen are up and getting higher. The cost of living is higher. The cost of diesel is higher. And his cost of diesel for his small business is going to get passed on to everyone who does business with him. And he wasn't angry. He was frustrated, disappointed. Disappointed might be the best word. He was a time-truck voter. Said he's just made it worse. Just made it worse. Talking about the president.

7:13Voted for him to make it better and he's just made it worse. Now, you have to understand something here. The implication in the statement. It's not an attack on the president. He came into a situation that wasn't good. Donald Trump is not getting blamed for the bad economic situation. He is getting blamed for not making it better. He's made it worse. Antigdot is not data. This conversation with this man is not data. It's just an anecdote. I have had several anecdotes just like it. But they conform to the data. There are a lot of people who are frustrated. They're not angry. They're disappointed. They voted for him. They gave him the popular vote. First time Republicans have won the popular vote since 2004. And the economy isn't getting better. And into this comes the president and his team. And they announced that they are going to run a campaign in 2026

8:16to save the Republican majority by making about Donald Trump. And I just don't know that that's the best thing. I don't know that that's the best strategy. And the president seems to want to have it both ways. This was the president yesterday in the Oval Office. So the stock market wasn't affected, although it would even be higher. Believe it or not, the stock market will go up. But it's very simple. A rank cannot have a nuclear weapon. As soon as it's over, which I don't think will be very much longer. I don't know how much more they can take. But you know, whatever it is, it doesn't matter. And I'm not affected by the election. Number one, I'm not running. My party's running. And I'm going to help my party. But I think my party respects the fact that we're not allowing a rant to have a nuclear weapon. And frankly, other presidents should have done that. But they didn't have whatever it takes to do it. Iran is not going to have nuclear problem. And also he's not running.

9:17He says in the Oval Office that he's not running. He's not on the ballot, except he wants to be on the ballot. And this is why I think this is a problem. And we talked a little bit about this yesterday. I suspect that the Republicans need to not make this about Donald Trump. Karl Rove has a piece in the Wall Street Journal. Now, some of you will hear the phrase, the name Karl Rove, and you will immediately bristle. Well, he's the establishment. Actually, Donald Trump's the establishment of the Republican party. Now, he's the president of the United States. He's the dominant force in politics right now. He is the establishment. Karl Rove used to be the establishment. And Karl Rove, the conservative base of the party, and the Maga base of the party knows Rove doesn't like them. But you know why you should listen to Karl Rove? Karl Rove is the last Republican strategist to win a midterm election for his president. In the year of our Lord 2002, the Republicans did not lose the House and Senate. Nor did they get wiped out.

10:17They actually gained seats and took full control of the United States Senate under Karl Rove. You might want to listen to what Karl Rove says about a midterm because Karl Rove is the last guy who was able to win midterms for an incumbent political party. There has not been a situation since where the incumbent party did as well as Karl Rove did in 2002. And what Karl Rove points out in his piece in the Wall Street Journal is you can't make this about Donald Trump. You need to make this about the Democrats. You need to give people a compelling vision for the future and remind them of what they're going to get if they don't get you. They're going to get all sorts of bad things. Really bad things. This idea that, well, I'm not going to listen to this guy because he's not on our side. Yeah, but he doesn't want the other side to win. You don't have to be such a small mind on this to say, oh, well, I mean, the enemy of my enemy is my friend and Karl Rove is not my friend.

11:18He's my enemy. I'm not going to listen to him. You all, he's making a lot of sense. He's making a whole lot of sense. The reality is the midterm plan if his about Trump is going to lose. Reporting last week, she gave Republicans in toss up races this fall, some sleepless nights. First, the Atlantic reported on a meeting in early August between President Trump and his political advisors on White House messaging for the midterms. According to people familiar with the gathering, the president's people told him in the magazine's words that the voting public still does not know about many of his accomplishments. The president's response was that since Democrats will make November a referendum on him anyway, the smart thing to do is to run ads, touting his record. They'd be easy to create. This mine, Mr. Trump's own on camera statements. The president reportedly said, go look at the clips. I cite accomplishments all the time. Then last Friday, Fox News, the senior White House correspondent Peter Ducey reported he was hearing some whispers

12:18of a ton of Trump travel in October, possibly as much as a Trump rally a day in competitive states and districts. Mr. Ducey admitted he don't typically see such an active presidential schedule since midterms are historically very hard on the president's party. What could go wrong with a rally a day in hundreds of millions of dollars in ads and battleground states featuring Mr. Trump? A lot for starters, if your approval rating is low, making the elections even more about you only helps the opposition midterms are almost always a choice for voters between more of the same and change. Trump has a 39.6 approval in the real clear politics polling average with 56.9% disapproval plastering his face on every screen and every toss up race will make the midterms even more about him and tie those candidates to an intensely unpopular status quo. A presidential rally a day in the final month of the midterms will have the same effect but with an additional downside Mr. Trump is never disciplined. He'll have no script saying whatever comes to mind his comments will dominate the news locally and nationally Republican candidates will constantly have to fend off questions about whether they agree with his latest insultor have baked idea the narrative won't be on anything won't be anything positive about them or the GOP.

13:22It would be far more sensible to put those candidates at the forefront of Republican ads not Mr. Trump. They should be the ones framing the choice voters face. They could share their views, values agenda and contrast them with those of their opponent after all is their fate's voters will decide given all that. Why is the Trump team talking about giving Democrats what they want and making the president the face of the GOP? Mr. Trump believes that in 2024 the beauty that we won by was the beauty that we won by so much she thinks the mandate was massive the biggest in 129 years in terms of the overall mandate. Listen, I think the president can provide a stunning contrast by going out there and beating the snotted of the Democrats as a bunch of woke socialists. Remember the ad, remember the ad, Conla Harris is for they them Trump is for you that can be the entire campaign the Republicans are for you the Democrats are for they them in fact we have even more democratic candidates out there now who are refusing to take a position on whether or not men can be women this is destroyed Jackson who's running in Maine.

14:26First of all, this is obviously an attack on you, but what's your position on this issue and what do you make of the fact that this is the issue that they are pouring so much money into from the Super PAC one that clearly is supporting her? Well, I mean, we've seen this line for a while now, you know, they've tried to do referendums here in Maine and it's failed and things like that. But but again, it comes back to, you know, what is actually affecting everyday manners, you know, things like health care, which we are losing in the state, you know, prescription drugs, child care, you know, elder care in home and nursing homes, I mean housing, proper tax reform and, you know, reproductive right. Which you can't get from the clip, but what he's not answering is the Republicans are attacking this guy because he believes putting men and women's prisons is fine. Ginzaak, he asked him, what do you think about this attack? What do you think about this attack that that you are okay with putting men and women's prisons?

15:29He refuses to say he's against it. Same with Tallarico in Texas, he won't actually come out against boys and girls sports. Same with so many of these Democratic candidates, don't make it about Donald Trump. Make it about the Democrats own positions, make it about the Democrats positions and remind people you may not care for the GOP right now, but you still hate the Democrats like the guy I spoke to at the hot dog stand earlier. He's not angry with Donald Trump. He understands that Trump came into a disaster and just thinks he hasn't made it better. Well, remind people, if you don't stick with him, the Democrats are going to make it even worse. There's your winning message. The full number is 877-977-37425. If you want to be on the program, I would be happy to have you with me. It is a very big story today. It's a very big story. I woke up to the news that Gloria Steinem is dead, the feminist icon. I was on with Mark Halperin this morning with Kevin Walling and they were talking about Gloria Steinem.

16:35And her legacy in history and they had both met her and they asked me my thoughts. And I said, I have none. I do not speak ill of the dead. So I will offer Gloria Steinem no more words than I offered for Jimmy Carter. Renye would love to get you a tankless water heater. Renye tankless water heaters will make sure you never run out of hot water. You'll have hot water forever. The Renye tankless water heater can be purchased at talkingtankless.com. The website they set up for it and the cool thing about the tankless water heater. If you're in a situation like me and my family, we put in a couple years ago. Our power bill went down like we went, our power bill literally did go down like a hundred bucks a month. Why? Well, we had two smaller water heaters. The warehouse was designed and you're having to pay to keep them hot all the time. And when your daughter with very long hair takes a very long shower, the hot water goes away. And then you got to wait for them to fill back up again and heat back up again.

17:38You don't have to do that with a tankless water heater. It heats up the moment water starts flowing through the natural gas or propane turns off when the water stops flowing. They're efficient. They get hot quick. They stay very hot. And you never run out of hot water. You can also find a certified professional to install your tankless water heater by going to talkingtankless.com. Talkingtankless.com. Get a Renye tankless water heater. Have hot water forever like we do in our house. Talkingtankless.com. Talkingtankless.com. With cricket wireless, you can count on reliable nationwide 5G because cricket wireless is on the 18 T network, which means you can start listening to that new album that just dropped at home while running errands and at the gym without any hiccups, fine plans with unlimited data for every lifestyle and price point switched a cricket today. Howdy. It is Eric Erikson. The full number you want to be on the show 877 9737 425. Listen, if you're traveling about I know people are going to be out and about traveling for labor day might not be in an area where you are. If you text Eric E R I C K to 3 3 7 7 7 7.

18:53Not only will you get the show notes, but you'll see the links to the light 24 7 livestream the show runs on repeat starts at noon every day. Eastern time and then runs until noon the next day and then the new show starts. So you can always listen to the show online by texting Eric to 3 3 7 7 7 7 7. Get the 4 things to podcast the show notes the podcast the regular show podcast all my social media links as well as a great way to stay in touch. And just one more time in all seriousness, if you're anywhere near the southeast or want to come to the southeast on October 10th tickets are still on sale for the not safe radio show October 10th. It's going to be at 7 p.m. It's going to be a fun time with some great stories that are not safe for radio to say. But I can say I'm in a room among friends. So tech show to 3 3 7 7 7 and you can get tickets to the not safe radio show coming up October 10th 7 p.m. Just north of Atlanta in Duluth, Georgia at the gas South Arena complex. It'll be a lot of fun.

20:00Now I'm going to pivot. We're going to stay away from politics for a while. By the way, I have confirmed from multiple people that Senator Ted Cruz is interested in running for president in 2028 in the next hour. I will discuss that, but I'm going to save it. I mentioned yesterday the battle over data centers and AI all the AI outlets were down this morning. Grock was down. Chat G.P.T. was down. Claude was down. And I have mentioned before that the the proprietors of the AI systems, the CEOs of AI. They are some of the worst possible spokesmen for their product. The G20 summit has been an Asheville North Carolina. No idea why they wanted to go to Asheville North Carolina. It's a beautiful city filled with left wing net jobs. Scott Bessent presided over the first two days of the G20 Howard Lutnik over the second two days of the G20 summit.

21:08Howard Lutnik decided to do fireside chats with the AI CEOs. The leadership of the G20 unanimously agreed to a statement. They're calling it the Asheville statement that there should be a light regulatory touch by the G20. They allow the AI companies to develop without the burden of government regulation. This is the chat just a part of it between Sam Altman and Howard Lutnik. You know, there are, look, there are tumors out there. And worry about everything. But we know that if you look back through the industrial revolution, as you said, it always seems to work out fine. You fundamentally optimistic to what your products will do to the world and will serve the world. I think part of the reason it tends to work out fine is people worry and they stress and they look at the downsides and they try to address those and they try to learn how we avoid accidents.

22:10So if we go back to an early example, even before electricity of a technology fire was an incredible, incredible, freaking, and incredible for letting us cook our food and eat our homes at night and whatever else. It also burnt down whole cities a few times. And people really worried about that because we don't want cities to burn down. And we figured out fire safety. And through a lot of human ingenuity, through a lot of good policy, definitely through learning from some very bad accidents, we figured out how to make it safer. Now, had we just said, like, you know, some cities are going to burn down whatever we got other problems to work on. Probably wouldn't have figured that out. And that wouldn't have been as good. So I think worry is warranted. Worried is how we anticipate problems and how we, from a matter of policy and a matter of technology, forgot to address them. But I am optimistic that we can mitigate the downsides of this technology. And if you look at what's happened, you know, if you look at what the dooms were saying five years ago about the chances of us being able to make AI of this level of this sort of near human, sometimes superhuman capacity level.

23:20You know, broadly considered safe and reliable, not perfect. There have been accidents. There will be accidents, of course. I don't think most people would have thought it was going to go this well as it has so far. And I believe in human ingenuity and the ability for to solve very difficult, very complex problems. And I think we'll keep doing that. And I think the economic value and the personal value is so huge. I met with someone just this morning and told him, and I'm sure you've all heard stories like this that they wouldn't be alive without Chatshipy T. And that they had a very difficult disease and, you know, got a diagnosis that doctors weren't able to give them. We shouldn't take that away. We need to figure out how to make the technology safe so that people can have more of that. Just just listen to his words. We can mitigate the harm, not stop the harm, mitigate the harm. We worry is good. Fire burned whole cities down.

24:21I don't know who is teaching these guys to talk about AI, but it's a disaster. But as I mentioned yesterday, I actually continue to believe that the algorithm is doing far more damage. Far more damage. The algorithm has elevated ideas and personalities that AI is not going to do. In fact, it is the algorithm that has rotted a lot of people's brains about the AI data centers. The algorithm continually elevates affirmation. The algorithm continually elevates fear and paranoia. The algorithm elevates things by which you will engage in the medium of digital spaces, and that is more often than not fear. And also personalities who tell you things that sound good until you just been 15 seconds thinking about them.

25:25For example, this conversation Joe Rogan was having someone with someone. Joe Rogan gave an answer on poverty and crime that sounded like that South Carolina beauty queen. I'll remember that woman years ago, the South Carolina beauty queen who gave one of the dumbest answers ever. It was just it was I can't even remember what it was now. It broke my brain to hear the woman who it was one of the dumbest things I think I'd ever heard until Lindsey Graham sister said she didn't know anything about foreign policy. And she's Lindsey Graham sister. It was such a dumb answer. This girl one time had and then I heard. Joe Rogan talking about crime and poverty just listen just imagine how much less crime there would be if no one was ever starving. If no one was ever hungry, no one was ever desperate. If no one was ever worried about where their next meal was going to come from or whether or not they're going to have a roof over their head.

26:25It would change a lot of people's perspective because how many people act in a famine way they is they have a famine mentality and the world me over some of the world over what what the world didn't do over what if like there's no more poverty what if the concept of poverty is like completely out the window. And there is no poverty in this country. Well, we could have already done that already. We could have already done that. Yeah, sure. But we don't need it. But you would have to get all those rich people that are in charge of industry and running corporations and in government to agree to make the world a better place for everybody. That ain't gonna happen. By the way, is Joe Rogan one of the rich people he's talking about because Joe Rogan is fabulously wealthy. Why isn't he spending his money on solving the problem? It sounds good, doesn't it? It sure sounds good. Oh, if only people would just allow the impoverished elevate Joe Rogan is a Bernie Sanders socialist and capitalism has elevated more people out of poverty than any other sort of economic status in life or economic system.

27:31And Rogan doesn't like capitalism. Oh, you know, those evil greedy corporations people, what about Joe Rogan? Just imagine how much less crime there would be if no one was ever starved, no one was ever desperate, no one was ever worried about where their next meal was going to come from or whether or not they're gonna have a roof over their head. You know, the very first crime recorded in history was the murder of a brother by his brother. And they were well provided for about one percent of people commit the crimes. The research shows a tiny fraction of the population commits most offenses studies on persistent offenders show 1% of individuals account for 63% of violent crime convictions for broader minor crimes, 5% of people commit a large majority of those crimes. By the way, there is no tie to poverty and crime.

28:33Is that not wild? This is one of the most, it's one of those things that rich white people say. Oh, the poor are criminals. That's Joe Rogan's position is the poor are criminals. No, the poor are not criminals. A criminal is most likely to be someone with daddy issues, particularly a young man who has no father in the house and that transcends socio economic development, by the way. It's just wild that people listen and think somehow or another, this is some sort of brilliant take. It sounds good, doesn't it? It sounds good. But we've got generations, generations of data that show crime is not socio economic. By the way, if you really want to get into the dark CD underbelly of crime stats, well, maybe I shouldn't go there.

29:46I just say a poor, a white guy who makes less than $10,000 a year is still far less likely to commit crime than a non white person who makes over $85,000 a year. That's according to the Department of Justice. There are lots of reasons for crime. The poverty really isn't one of them and the idea that we're going to cure poverty and I will quote Jesus Christ, the poor you shall always have. The problem is this in all seriousness, and you can laugh when I say it, but you know I'm not wrong. If the median household in this country made a hundred thousand dollars a year, if the overwhelming majority of people in this country made a hundred thousand dollars a year, Joe Rogan would look on the person making $50,000 a year and say they were poor or $80,000 a year and say they were poor.

30:47If every one of this country, if the median income in this country was a million dollars a year, Joe Rogan would say, oh, that poor guy making a hundred thousand dollars a year. That poor guy is going to be a criminal. It's not actually true. It's the most listened to podcasts in America and you know, there are people nodding along with their head that yes, this is if only those greedy, greedy jerks who have billions of dollars would elevate people out of poverty. You know, they have actually elevated people out of poverty. How? They've driven down prices. They provided people good jobs. They've created whole industries that have elevated people out of poverty. This nation has elevated more people out of poverty through the capitalist system that Joe Rogan hates and that's part of the problem. Joe Rogan wants this massive social safety net to take care of people as do all the socialists ignorant of the fact that one, you need the wealthy people to pay for it. And number two, in this country, contrary to those countries with the major social safety net, we have done a better job of making poor people rich than any other country that has engaged in the social safety net tactics that people like Joe Rogan want.

31:54And yet he is the dominant voice in podcast in large part due to the algorithm. And he is a far better person to listen to than say a Tucker Carlson or Candace O'Hase who are writing people's brains. I go back to the example yesterday. Women have been convinced by the algorithm, not the data center. Women in America have been convinced by the algorithm, not AI, not the data center, but the algorithm to stop giving their children vitamin K shots when they're born. Vitamin K shots are known to save the lives of children. And when you take a pool of kids who've gotten the vitamin K shot and a pool of kids who have not the kids who have not gotten the vitamin K shot or disproportionately likely to die within the first six months after birth. Why? Because they don't get sufficient vitamin K to help them clot and they get brain, brain bleeds among other things. Vitamin K is a vitamin. It's not even a, it's not even a vaccine. And yet the TikTok algorithm has convinced women that they should stop giving their child a life saving medical treatment upon birth.

33:07And Joe Rogan's out there trying to convince people if we just made all the poor people rich people somehow crime would go away when the very first crime ever recorded in scripture was the murder of a guy by his brother. And the data itself shows now in the here and now that crime and poverty are not actually related. They're not people just believe they are because they don't want to look at the data. They want to look at their feelings. This hour brought to you by Van Allen golf. I was actually in their building. Yes, a boy have I seen some of the cool stuff they've got coming. And they got great putters right now. Will was making 200 putters for a, for a charity event out in California 200 Van Allen. They're beautiful. And I've seen the new blue ones with the bronze hole. They're gorgeous. Van Allen golf.com Van Allen golf.com or text the word golf to three three seven seven seven. If you use my name Eric, you get 15% discount. Friends, this may be the most important story of the day.

34:19I just need you to know that he haws dead. Not the TV show. The donkey. He's a Cedar Town Georgia. He haw a beloved donkey and fixture at Ellsbury Farm in Cedar Town. Georgia was shot and killed by the police on Sunday morning. They were searching for a missing child. Hannah Israel who bottle raised he haw is if he was her own from the time he was just an hour old since the silence is heartbreaking. He was my child. I bottle raised him from one hour old and I was up at all hours of the night. He haw had no problem making himself heard. He would normally be standing right over there talking while I'm talking because he thought he could talk like a person could talk. Apparently he considered everyone a friend. Every time he saw somebody he would run up and pray and then do a really goofy sound because he loved people and he thought he was a person he slept in my bed for the first three months of his life.

35:24And the friendly personality has been gunned down by the Cedar Town Police Department. What are the officers shot and killed he haul while searching for a missing child. The child was later found safe near the pasture where the donkey was killed. That search took them to the incident location where this unfortunate and heartbreaking event occurred said police chief Jamie Newsom who declined further details. The officer has been suspended pending investigation justice for he haul. Donkey lives matter to. We must move on. Vision computer wants to build you a computer. You can even dedicate your computer build the he haw. I'm sure they'll build you a computer. They'll transfer all the stuff off your old computer to your new computer as long as windows 11 to blind. And you get their world class tech support. You can just get the tech support if you want. They help people in all 50 states and companies too.

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