Ryan Bridge: Why today’s GDP number is not irrelevant

Old, yes. Backward looking, by its nature, but not irrelevant.

We’re tipped to grow around 0.3%-0.4% for Q4 2025. It would mark, barring any surprises, the second straight month of per capita growth on the trot. 

That means average income and standard of living was ticking up on a per person basis, albeit from a low base.

This is important because it tells you we're on the move. We're fighting back against the recession.

Some say the number is now irrelevant because of the war and oil supply, but there are reasons to be optimistic.

We’re looking at alternative supplies. Our current stocks are described as stable.

The Reserve Bank is likely to leave interest rates where they are in three weeks. 

And there’s a fork in the road, if inflation bumps, there’ll be temptation to hike rates later. But we can still grow at a clip under 3% if two things happen:

1. We don’t panic buy and self-fulfil a fuel shortage
2. We learn lessons from Liberation Day.

Trump's actions are chaotic and often quickly reversed. TACO. 

The tariff shock wasn’t so much about a direct affect, it was a knock to business and consumer confidence. 

People spent less and business paused hiring and investing because of the uncertainty. And that blew over. Yes, this is different and involves more balls in the air, but the fundamental lesson is the same.

If we freak out, if we let uncertainty rule our lives, we exacerbate the very problem we’re trying avoid in the first place.

So I’m relatively optimistic. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

So much is of economics is basically human feelings, when it boils down to it. 

So when today’s GDP read comes out, let’s take stock of where we’ve been. Let’s pat ourselves and our businesses on the back for our contributions.

That number’s not irrelevant, it was hard fought. 

Confidence is key. If we think we can do it again, we will.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.