Ryan Bridge: What we got from the RBNZ yesterday

So what do we know today that we didn't know yesterday after the big show from the Reserve Bank? 

Well not much, really. 

The cut was expected - it was already priced in. They're a bit more rosy on growth, it looks like the end of the cycle for cuts. 

But beyond that, it really is guesswork. 

The central outlook was 'balanced'. Meaning closed wallets could could hurt the outlook, higher housing prices and export prices could help it. 

We put a lot of faith in the OCR to get us out of the rut.

Even though it hasn't really worked thus far, even after six rounds of slashing.

At one point in the presser the Chief Economist was almost repeating this like a mantra, as if by saying it over and over again, he'd will it to happen. 

There are two problems here:

First, we've heard it all before and not seen the results.

Second, by their own admission, the GDP numbers we've been relying on aren't reliable. 

There's a bunch of seasonality in the numbers - especially for that shocker in June where where we apparently went backwards almost 1%.

We didn't. The computer's a bit bust after Covid and hasn't caught up, basically. 

The good news? It probably wasn't as bad as they said it was. The bad news? Growth the following quarters probably wasn't as good as forecast either. 

Give with one hand and take with another. 

So we have a system we're hoping like hell still works in this new post-Covid/tariff environment with sticky inflation and pretty lame-o growth.

And numbers we can't really rely on, which if you cast your mind back to quarter two, get blown up by us in the media, scaring people into closing their wallets again, and perpetuating the cycle. 

To be be fair, there's always been a lag with the OCR working its magic.

And at some point, surely, we'll hit the g-spot again, for growth. If for no other reason than what goes down must, at some point, bounce back up.

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