Ryan Bridge: We can't bash the Reserve Bank

The problem with bashing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in real time is that nobody really knows how badly they might have cocked something until well after the cocking's happened. 

There weren't many —though not none— chiding Orr for low rates until it was bleedingly obvious in actual data, and what Prince Harry would term 'lived experience', that prices were on the march. 

The RBNZ has decided to hike now. They'll probably do another one in September, assuming Trump's ceasefire pause is just that, and beyond September is anyone's guess. 

One argument is that they'll hike in September, hold in October ahead of the election in November, then stick their finger in the air for December. 

Either way we're heading towards either 2.75% or 3% by Christmas. 

Most of this has been priced into wholesale rates. 

The justification for the hike, as has been pointed out by a couple of economists, is it's easier to swallow. 

For them to come out and say "we're hiking now because the economy is on the up, plus a bit of war pricing potential", that's a lot easier to stomach than "we're hiking now and there's no growth - welcome to stagflation nation".

Tony Alexander makes the point that the bank has been criticised in the past for hiking too late, letting prices get away, then overcorrecting on rates, plunging us into a deep and uncomfortable recession. 

Given they're now moving relatively early, they can move and wait and see and (hopefully) avoid the same mistakes. 

I like to believe Tony's predictions. And I hope he's right.

Managing the OCR is driving a rental car - you're unfamiliar with the pedals. Push too hard either way and you can quickly end up wrapped to lamppost or hit in the head by an airbag. 

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