Ryan Bridge: Unemployment isn't as bad as it seems

A couple of things on the unemployment number that came out yesterday. 

It looks worse than actually it is because a bunch of people decided they would start looking for work in the second quarter rather than the one before it.

So, there are a bunch of reasons for this happening, but basically you don't really know.

You don't know what you don't know. It's anyone's guess.

It could be that people go, oh, the job market is on the up, so it's actually worth me trying to look for work now, which would be a good thing. 

But also, the net rate is better than it was in March.

There are a couple of reasons, a couple of good takeaways from yesterday's number.

The net rate better than it was in the March quarter. That's young people, so ages 15 to 24 who are not in employment, not in education, or not in training.

So you want fewer of them. It was 14.4%, it's now 13.8%. Sure, definitely room for improvement, but there is a slight improvement. 

Young people who couldn't find work have gone into education to upskill, which is exactly what you want them to do at a time like this.

The numbers still higher than you want, of course. 

They both are actually on the whole, but with context, not as bad as they look at first glance and with some promising signs under the hood.

And every economist and his dog right now will tell you, don't let this put you off.

Unemployment is the lagging indicator, so it's the last one that will turn in an economic turnaround.

And gee, this thing's been a titanic of a turnaround job.

But there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic despite the headline number that came out yesterday. 

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