Ryan Bridge: The Nats stand a chance this election

The Coalition is failing on two numbers that matter most to us voters. 

Inflation is up over 3% - not as bad as the Aussies but not helped by Trump. 

But wage growth is 2%.

The cost of buying stuff is going up quicker than we can afford to pay for it by working. Our real wages are a bit shite. 

You know when Luxon set the election date in January and said people needed to "feel" the recovery happening?

They're not. That's why the right track/wrong track poll results look the way they do. Most of us reckon we're heading in the wrong direction because they are. 

And people, generally and rightly, link their individual circumstances to that of the country. 

Now some of you might be annoyed by this, but these are facts - you can't argue with them.

However, they do not mean Labour is getting back into government. Far from it. 

Elections are about choices. Has the other guy hawking his wares got something better to offer me?

Labour's got three doctors visits at already-stretched GP clinics and world of financial and tax uncertainty with the Greens and Te Pati Māori at their side.

As I've said from the beginning, this Coalition will be re-elected because they're relatively stable and Kiwis mostly give first timers a second shot. 

These wage/inflation numbers are not good for them, but they're not fatal either. 

The risk of the unknown, the devil you don't know, especially during a crisis, will in the end get Luxon re-elected as Prime Minister 

I still don't think Kiwis, when they come to polling booths on in November, will want to risk getting out of the frying pan only to end up in the fire.

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