Ryan Bridge: Luxon needs more than his base to win the election

People hate the media, so hating on the media is not a bad strategy. 

It's worked for Winston over many decades, although the bloke only needs 10% of people to like his style - most find it a bit abrasive. 

As I've said previously, ministers are the de-facto top brass in the caucus. When all the ministers line up behind their man, no vote is going to topple him. The backbenchers fall into line. 

The group calling for a coup looks a bit shambolic, like a bunch of disgruntled employees - your Andrew Bayly's and Tim Van de Molens. 

The only real threat to Luxon is if polling gets so bad, his cabinet comes under threat. 

You need a trend to prove that, not one poll. 

If a trend emerges where the left-bloc can govern, he's toast. And he'd probably fall on his sword at that point anyway. 

I had loads of texts from people on the right yesterday raving about Luxon finally standing up for himself and doing something, anything, that looked decisive.

He performed to the base, yesterday.

But you need more than the base to win an election and form a government. 

From here, the next move is crucial. 

You need to flood the market with some bold economic initiatives and policy ideas. 

He wants to talk about the economy, then get out there and do it. Do the big stuff. The hard stuff. And make a case for why.

Luxon officially has everyone's attention, how he uses it will determine how long he keeps his job.

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