Risk of Ruin: Bankroll Math for Bitcoiners

Rob and Brian shake off the dust after a busy stretch of conferences and a milestone YouTube debut with guest Alan, then map the road from elliptic curves to an upcoming mini‑series on hash functions. We talk Prague plans (a keynote on “the mathematical layer of sovereignty” and a quantum‑security panel with Trezor), growing Miniscript adoption (Liana, Trezor), and why the Magic Internet Math platform now extends into local community with a new math‑forward BitDevs in Philadelphia. Along the way we reflect on conferences as cultural glue and classrooms for Bitcoiners. The back half is a detour into poker as a living analogy for Bitcoin: bankroll management, game selection, Kelly criterion, and conviction under volatility. We kick around time‑preference versus risk‑preference, the perils of leverage, and treasury/custody tradeoffs—from digital credit notes and proof‑of‑reserves to insurance‑backed multisig. Expect practical takes on River’s yield accounts, ETF custody signals (Bitwise/Coinbase), and why resilient operations matter more than narratives—plus a few fun asides from WSOP lore to Rounders and the Potoshi pattern.

• 'AnchorWatch': https://www.anchorwatch.com
• 'Miniscript (reference implementation by sipa)': https://github.com/sipa/miniscript
• 'Liana wallet (WizardSardine)': https://wizardsardine.com/liana/
• 'WizardSardine': https://wizardsardine.com
• 'Pay to Script Hash (P2SH) – Bitcoin Wiki': https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Pay_to_script_hash
• 'Pay to Witness PubKey Hash (P2WPKH) – Bitcoin Wiki': https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Pay_to_witness_public_key_hash
• 'NYC BitDevs': https://bitdevs.org/nyc
• 'BTC Prague': https://www.btcprague.com
• 'Zeus Wallet': https://zeusln.com
• 'River': https://river.com
• 'River Transparency / Proof‑of‑Reserves': https://river.com/transparency/
• 'Kelly Criterion – Wikipedia': https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
• 'Factorial (52! for deck permutations) – Wikipedia': https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factorial
• 'World Series of Poker (WSOP)': https://www.wsop.com
• 'Binion’s Gambling Hall (WSOP origins)': https://www.binions.com
• 'Rounders (1998) – IMDb': https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0128442/
• 'Arkham Intelligence': https://arkhamintelligence.com
• 'Holt’s Cigar Company (Philadelphia)': https://www.holts.com