Resource Nationalism Reshapes Global Mining Investment Map

Our previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/record-metal-prices-creating-mining-acquisition-wave-6893

Recording date: 31st March 2025

Resource nationalism and political risk have emerged as critical considerations for mining investors, particularly as jurisdictional differences in permitting timelines create significant competitive advantages. According to industry executives Samuel Pelaez and Derek Macpherson of Olive Resource Capital, these factors are reshaping investment strategies in the gold-copper sector.

Western Australia stands out as a premier mining jurisdiction globally, with permitting processes taking just 1-2 years compared to the 5-10 years historically required in the United States. This efficiency creates substantial economic advantages for projects in favorable regions.

Recent developments in the U.S. mining sector could transform this dynamic. President Trump's Mineral Production Order aims to expedite mining permits, potentially triggering what experts describe as a "renaissance in U.S. mining" over the next 3-4 years. Companies including Mako Mining, Minera Alamos, and Trilogy Metals are already positioning themselves to capitalize on this regulatory shift.

While rule of law is considered a binary factor in investment decisions, executives emphasize it can change unexpectedly. Mali, Panama, and Bolivia demonstrate how previously favorable jurisdictions can quickly become challenging. As Macpherson notes, "We want things to stay the same," highlighting investors' fundamental desire for stability.

Beyond the U.S., several jurisdictions are gaining favor. Guyana's recent oil discoveries have funded infrastructure improvements while creating demand for job-producing mining projects. Brazil continues demonstrating reasonable permitting timeframes, while Morocco has emerged as a surprising new mining destination.

The discussion emphasizes that resource nationalism impacts strategic metals like copper and rare earths even more significantly than gold, creating opportunities for projects in western jurisdictions as nations seek to secure domestic supply chains.

For investors, the implications include prioritizing projects in stable jurisdictions with efficient permitting, considering the timing advantage for U.S. projects under the current administration, evaluating management teams for jurisdiction-specific experience, and distinguishing between risks to developers versus producers.

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