Refunds for Tariffs, Job Growth Discrepancy, Rehiring After AI Layoffs

0:00Hey everybody, it's G Marks and welcome to this week's edition of the Paychecks Drive. Weak in review. This is where we take three items in the news that impacts your business and mine. We talk a little bit about them. So let's get right to the news. The first bit of news has to do with tariffs. Now I admit that when the Supreme Court overturned the president's tariff rules, I was very pessimistic about businesses, but small and large, actually, ever getting refunds on their tariffs. But you know what? I think I may be wrong. The tide seems to be turning. The news this week is that the US Customs and Border Protection has told a federal judge that it needs 45 days time to start tariff refunds. This news comes from Politico. They would need to build a system that's capable of processing refunds for billions of dollars and tariffs recently ruled unlawful.

1:01The Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed by a bond emergency powers and the Court of International Trade ordered the government to reimburse the importers. The CBP, that's the Customs and Border Protection, argues the scale of the task is unprecedented, covering tens of millions of import entries and more than 330,000 importers. The agency plans to develop an automated process through its existing trade system to calculate and distribute refunds, the delay highlights logistical challenges in returning potentially $166 billion in duties and raises concerns among businesses awaiting payment. Now for starters, that's good news for businesses. The Trump administration initially said they were going to fight these, apparently they are not. They are abiding by the Supreme Court's ruling and now there is putting together a process in place to refund this money. They realized the power of the courts and they are abiding by what the court has ruled. So I think that's very, very good news for the country. Secondly, there is going to be a process for businesses.

2:04So what does that mean and how can you take advantage of this? Well, I would be paying very close attention to what the U.S. Customs and Border Protection are doing right now so that you're on top of it. I think that you should be hiring a trade attorney to represent you as well if your tariffs are significant enough that you've paid in and if significant enough, because you've now got at least 45 days to get ready, I think you need to be putting together all of your paperwork and documentation so that when this is ready and you are going to be asked to submit all this documentation, you've got it ready to go so you can jump on board this. So good news in the sense that I do think there is going to be a process for returning these tariffs, get your paperwork together, hire a trade attorney, keep a close eye on the U.S. Customs and Border Protection so you can keep abreast of this if your tariffs are significant enough that you paid in. There's a better chance now that you might actually get refunded. So that's number one. The second bit of news this week comes from PageX.

3:06PageX is small business employment watch was released this week and even though the Department of Labor has found that the U.S. lost about 92,000 jobs during this previous month, PageX's report was a little bit more optimistic than that, particularly when it comes to small businesses. Their small business employment watch reported that job and wage growth among U.S. small businesses remained stable in the past month. The small business jobs index actually rose slightly, indicating modest but consistent hiring among companies with fewer than 50 employees. Now remember, those companies represent half of this country's GDP and employee half of this country's workforce. So stability is good. Wage growth, PageX said also stabilized with hourly earnings rising roughly 2.68%, reflecting cooling wage inflation after earlier labor shortages. Overall the data is just the small business labor market is neither rapidly expanding nor contracting, but holding steady.

4:09PageX notes that certain industries and regions are showing stronger growth in others, while the broader trend reflects cautious hiring and steady compensation increases as employers balance economic uncertainty with continued demand for workers. So even though the Department of Labor has reported a 92,000 loss in jobs this past month, PageX says reporting something a little bit contrary to that, I go with PageX because that's based on actual real number and real data from their system as opposed to surveys and other estimates that are made by the Department of Labor, which are subject to revisions, sometimes significant revisions. So we have to wait and see these contradicting numbers about the U.S. job and labor force. I love to see how things shake out, but again, I lean towards PageX numbers because of that. Hey, and speaking of PageX, managing your team doesn't need to be complicated. I'm hiring the right people to getting them on board and keeping things running smoothly. PageX has the HR tools and support you need to do it all.

5:11It's like having an extra set of hands when you really need it. So if you need that help and you're curious, visit PageX.com-forward-slash-meet-pagex. That's P-A-Y-C-E-X.com-forward-slash-M-E-E-T-P-A-Y-C-H-E-X. You can also find the link in the show notes. Our last segment of the day is introducing something a little bit new to the week in review. We're going to be doing our AI news of the week because all the things that we talk about on this podcast do impact businesses, public policy, the economy, taxes, legislation, news are going on jobs, but there is nothing that is going to be more impactful to small businesses over the next few years than AI, and we want to make sure that you are keeping up to date on the latest news and AI that impacts your business, okay? So for our AI news of the week, this is where we break down, one AI development tip or tool that can help small businesses work smarter,

6:12this report comes from Gardener. Gardener recently reported that half affirms that cut customer service staff for AI plan to rehire them by 2027. Listen to this, the report is from Tech Republic. A Gardener-focused forecast cited by Tech Republic predicted that roughly half of companies that reduced customer service headcount due to artificial intelligence will rehire workers by 2027. Many organizations initially adopted AI tools such as chatbots and automated service platforms expecting significant labor reductions. However, companies are discovering limits to automation, particularly for complex customer interactions requiring judgment, empathy, and problem solving. As a result, businesses are expected to rebalance operations by combining AI systems with human staff, often rehiring workers under new job titles focused on oversight, escalation, handling, or AI-supported service roles. The research highlights a broader shift towards hybrid service models

7:15where AI augments employees rather than replacing them entirely. This is Gardener that is talking right now, and it's important for us as businesses. For all the way here about AI and the benefits that it will bring to us, and it certainly will, don't go firing a bunch of employees yet in lieu of AI. Right now, AI I'm seeing in the workplace as being rolled out, first and foremost, among developers, technology firms and customer service, and as Gardener is reporting, a lot of these companies are starting to rethink the firings that they have made of employees that they thought AI was going to replace, because they're starting to realize that humans, particularly in customer service, like to deal with humans. Now, it doesn't mean that automation can't take the place of some things in customer service, but it does mean that AI itself is not the beyond end on, it's not going to be replacing all jobs at least in that area. So, if you were thinking of employing an AI-based solution or automating your business with AI,

8:16that is great, but just remember, it should be used more as a productivity tool that your employees can leverage. This is not something that is going to be replacing your employees anytime soon, so please keep that in mind as you're making your technology investments going forward. My name is Gene Markson. You have been watching or listening to this week's episode of the Paychecks Thrive Week in Review. Now, if you need any help or tips or advice in your business, please sign up for our Paychecks Thrive newsletter. Go to paychecks.com forward slash thrive. Hey, we'll be back to you next week with three more items of news that impacts your business in mind, including what's going on in AI. You'll stay up to date by staying current with us. We look forward to seeing you then. Take care. Do you have a topic or a guess that you would like to hear on SRIVE? Please let us know. Visit payx.me forward slash thrive topics and send us your ideas or matters of interest. Also, if your business is looking to simplify your HR payroll benefits or insurance services, see how paychecks can help.

9:17Visit the resource hub at paychecks.com forward slash works. That's W-O-R-X. Paychecks can help manage those complexities while you focus on all the ways you want your business to SRIVE. I'm your host, Gene Markson. Thanks for joining us. This podcast is property of Paychecks Incorporated 2026 All Rights Reserved.