REDFIN: Housing Market Has NEVER BEEN THIS BAD!!!!

0:00America leads the world in medicine development. It matters. We get new medicines first, nearly three years faster. Five million Americans go to work because we make medicines here at home, and not relying on other countries keeps us safe. But China is racing to overtake us. Will we let them? Or will we choose to stay ahead? When America leads, America cures. Let's tell Washington to keep us in the lead. Learn how at americancures.com, paid for by pharma. Have you seen the report from redfin? You know, the one with the graph that says there are 630,000 more sellers than buyers. Redfin is putting out a message that this is the most distorted housing market on record. But what I want to remind you is, at least for our community, that is good news. Why is it good news to have 630,000 more sellers than buyers? Well,

1:06A, we want less competition. B, we want more choices. And C, we want the ability to find more motivated sellers. So the fact that redfin is reporting this is, again, just another sign that this extended buyers slash investors market is going to continue for some time. If you want to go behind the numbers and figure out what cities are most distorted, I have the top three for you. Coming in at number three, Austin, Texas, there are 112% more sellers than buyers. That's roughly a two to one ratio. Nashville comes in next at 120%. And the winter, winter, chicken dinner is Miami at 163%. Now, folks, if you happen to be shopping in Miami,

2:11Nashville, Austin, or any other distorted market, what does it mean? Well, as always, get a buy box, look at it every day, figure out average, and then start writing some super disrespectful offers. Again, folks, I have no idea how long this will continue. The fact that this war does not seem to be settling down, the fact that inflation, as you will see in a minute, is expected to spike, the fact that mortgage rates are likely go higher, it all means that we need to continually do our job. Look for great deals, create great deals. Buyers have disappeared, sellers are getting more motivated. This is, this is frankly our time. To that end, I've invited back one of the real estate investors I personally put on Mount Rushmore. His name is Jason Pritchard. Jason Pritchard will be going live inside our school community eight a.m. Sunday.

3:12And we're going to ask Jason, what is working now? Jason runs a very large operation in Central Valley. He is a wonderful real estate investor and personal family friend. So we'll be fun to catch up with Jason and really have our school community. Again, I do these in school. You can ask one of the best investors I know questions. So again, Jason runs a very active operation and is always buying and selling. So if you want to figure out what he's doing in this changing environment, congratulations. You will have that opportunity eight a.m. Pacific Sunday morning. Also, let's just close it out on school. We have two accountability calls today. Nine to 10 a.m. Pacific wealth beyond real estate and 12 to one Western Pennsylvania or Western PA group. So again, lots of stuff going on. And let's congratulate Brian for being our latest everyday wealth builder to join the community. Also, I want to let you know that the replay of Hem Lane Dana Dunford and

4:18Mark, the financial firefighter is now live in school. They talked about how Hem Lane helps somebody in Hawaii manage properties in Pennsylvania. So if you ever thought about out of state investing, you might want to watch that video. It is in school. I posted it so you can just search for my name. It looks like Iran has rejected the U.S. ceasefire and frankly demands sovereignty over the state of her moves. Folks, that is not going to happen. No chance that we recognize them as quote, the owner of the straight that just will not happen. That's a non starter looks like this war is escalating. It certainly feels that way to me. I don't know how it feels to you. It looks like there is some dark days ahead, which is not good in my opinion. Goldman Sachs raised the odds of a recession to 30% has lower GDP outlook and sees higher oil prices. Folks, what is that?

5:22That is demand destruction. Again, I'm hearing from more and more folks about fear, nervousness, and the like. That is all consumers pulling back, retreating. This could lead to first negative quarter in Q2 followed by Q3 and bingo bingo six months recession. So something to be careful about. According to Larry Fink, Iran only ends in one of two ways, which is frankly frightening to me, thinking that it's a binary choice. One, it could end in abundance. Growth and oil at $40. Sounds pretty good to me. Or a global recession and years stressing the word years of oil at 150 or higher. That does not sound good to me. I'll take option one, Larry. Can we order option one and just get this behind us? What else do we got? Fed president,

6:26Iran was speaking yesterday. Even he raised his projection for inflation unless Fed rate cuts because of that, which I thought was interesting. Still says that the Fed is about one point over neutral, which means he still sees four cuts, which I think is aggressive to say the least. He does expect AI and deregulation to be deflationary. It also could cause unemployment, but doesn't say anything about that. And finally, the job market is on an extended streak of getting weaker. This is certainly true. Bernie Sanders for good old Bernie wants to put a moratorium on new construction of AI data centers. And that's wild to me. That's like the most boomer thing I've ever heard. What's to put a moratorium on data centers? What does that mean? Well,

7:26that just means that the US is not going to win. This is an AI arms race. And if you are going to limit the production of data centers, you're just going to give the keys to the kingdom to everyone else. And it's not like the US for refusing to participate stops development. That's not how this works. So definitely a boomer thing to say, putting a moratorium on AA dentists and just really just misses the point, I think. According to the IEA chief says that Iran's oil crisis is the worst energy shock ever recorded. And as somebody who still remembers gas lines from the 70s and going every other day, that is frightening to think about. The Philippines is the first nation to declare a national emergency because of oil. It looks like 90% of the oil that the Philippines

8:27receives goes through the strait of her moves. And that's not working right now. So the Philippines is the first country with others unfortunately likely to follow. The US Postal Service is seeking an emergency 8% fuel charge for package delivery. Weekly unemployment came in today at 210. Again, nothing to be concerned about. We're bouncing the low 200s. We've been here for a long time. There's no seemingly race to 300, which is where you get concerned. And then the final thing I read global forecasting group sees US inflation rising to 4.2% in 2026 before falling to 1.6 in 2027. Just so we know their original forecast was 2.8. So their original forecast 2.8, the Fed says 2.7 just so we can put a pin in that. They're now saying that the US inflation rate is going to jump

9:28to 4.2% in 2026, which is white a run. Again, as I said for quite a while now CPI is going to jump to 3% when it's reported next month. The base effect is 0. And we are going to get a 0.6 maybe even a 0.7 month on month because of energy. So buckle up folks. It is going to be a bar and burner and people are going to start to talk inflation, inflation, inflation. At the end of the day folks remember as we open that red thin article talking about 630,000 more sellers than buyers. Good news. Good news if you are shopping. Write your offers please please please write your offers better. For example, if you were looking at a 250K house and you were going to write it at 2.30 because you thought it would be a great deal. Today, write it at 2.20 or 2.15 or shoot 207. It's our time. Most of you can only do one deal a year. Use this time to your advantage.

10:34You don't get many of these. You don't get many of these where the sellers really have no power because there are so few buyers. So get a buy box, look every day, follow up, write offers, you guys know the drill. Also, don't forget that steadily is the sponsor of the daily financial news. They personally saved Olivia and I. Over 20 grand in 2025 as we switched properties. So again, give them a shot. Maybe they can help. Maybe they can't. And I hope to see you inside school. The place where 650 wealth builders go to meet friends, ask questions, support each other. Do accountability calls. Get free education. Just have some fun. So hope to see you there. Take care and don't forget Sunday morning 8 a.m. Pacific. You get to ask Jason Pritchard questions. Thank you everyone. Take care. Bye.