Putin, Grain Selloff, and USDA Farm Profit Update

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🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures plunged as optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal raised hopes for improved Black Sea grain shipments. December Chicago wheat fell nearly 20¢, while KC wheat dropped about 19¢. 

🌽 Corn: Corn followed wheat lower, with December futures slipping about 3¢ on spillover pressure. 

🫘 Soybeans: Soybeans bucked the trend, gaining 6¢ on continued Chinese buying, higher crude oil prices, and concerns about hot, dry U.S. weather. 

🇨🇳 China: USDA reported another flash soybean sale, with U.S. exporters selling 192,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year. New-crop soybean sales are now 104% above last year's pace. 

📉 Exports: U.S. corn export demand was mixed. Old-crop sales posted large cancellations, while new-crop sales topped expectations but remain 31% below last year's pace. Wheat sales also came in below expectations. 

🌡️ Drought: Dry weather continues to threaten the Corn Belt, with drought worsening in several areas. Current drought coverage stands at 28% for corn, 30% for soybeans, 59% for winter wheat, and 82% for spring wheat. 

🚜 Farm income: USDA expects 2026 net farm income to fall 5.5% from last year after adjusting for inflation, but it should remain above the 20-year average. 

🥩 Cattle: Tyson cut its earnings outlook for the second time in a month, projecting deeper beef losses of $625 million to $775 million as tight cattle supplies squeeze packer margins. 

🏭 Beef packing: Tyson has closed several beef plants to cut costs, highlighting the financial pressure facing the packing industry amid historically tight cattle supplies. 

🐔 Poultry: Tyson's poultry business is helping offset beef losses, although cautious consumer spending is beginning to pressure that segment as well.