Prof. John Mearsheimer : Evaluating Human Cost of This War - Can Anyone Justify So Much Violence?

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1:01I'm Will and I created IQBAR plant protein bars to empower doers like you with clean, delicious, low sugar, brain and body fuel. IQBars are packed with 12 grams of protein, brain nutrients like magnesium and lion's mane and zero weird stuff. And right now you can get 20% off all IQBAR products plus reshipping. Buy our delicious IQBAR sampler pack with seven plant protein bars for hydration mixes and for enhanced coffee sticks. Clean ingredients, amazing taste and you'll love how you feel. Refuel smarter, hydrate harder, caffeinate larger with IQBAR. Go to eaticubar.com and enter code bar20 to get 20% off all IQBAR products plus free shipping. Again, go to eaticubar.com and enter code bar20. Undeclared wars are commonplace. Pragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression with no complaints from the American people.

2:02Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected. What if sometimes to love your country, you had to alter or abolish the government? What if Jefferson was right? What if that government is best which governs least? What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish fighting for freedom than to live as a slave? What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now? Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for a judging freedom. Today is Tuesday, March 10th, 2026, Professor John Mears-Shimer will be with us in just a moment on evaluating the human cost of war.

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4:07Tell them the judge sent you and get up to $20,000 and bonus gold or silver. Call 811-4620 or go to LearJudgeNap.com. Professor John Mayor Shammer, welcome here, my dear friend. As always, thank you for accommodating my schedule. Before we get into the human cost of war about which is spoke very eloquently in another forum recently, President Trump claims that the US has won the war in Iran. Now, without his having articulated a clear goal from the outset, it's hard to comprehend exactly what he means. But from your observations, by any measurement, can the United States claim it has won this war after 10 days of Mayhem? No, you want to remember that the principal goal here was regime change, and that was all designed for the purpose of eliminating the ballistic missile threat,

5:10eliminating Iran's nuclear enrichment capability, and getting Iran to stop supporting the Houthis as Bala and Hamas. They haven't gotten rid of the regime. The regime is live and well. The people are rallying around the flag. And as far as ballistic missiles are concerned, we can see with our own eyes that ballistic missiles are continuing to fly into Gulf states and into Israel in terms of their nuclear capability. If anything, this has increased the chances that Iran is going to get nuclear weapons. And in fact, in terms of has Bala, Hamas, and the Houthis Iran is working with has Bala today, as we speak, and they're working with the Houthis. So we have achieved none of the objectives that President Trump set out at the start of this campaign, and therefore it's impossible to declare victory. How, well, from dumb to catastrophic, however you want to characterize,

6:17it was the decision to murder the Iatola. It was a remarkably foolish decision. I mean, the administration, this is true of the Israelis, have this deep-seated belief that decapitation produces instant victory. The historical record is unequivocally clear that it never works. Furthermore, if you go back to the June 2025 war, the 12-day war, the Israelis decapitated the regime at the start of that war, and it didn't work then, and it didn't work this time ever. So I don't understand why they thought they could win this war quickly with a decapitation strategy. But having failed, they're now in a war of attrition against an adversary, the Iranians, who have a huge number of ballistic missiles, a huge number of drones, and who are operating in what I would call a target-rich environment. There are just lots of big-fat targets that they can hit with those ballistic missiles,

7:18and we do not have much capability to defend our bases, to defend our allies in the Gulf, or even to defend Israel. You want to remember that the 12-day war back in June of last year ended because the Israelis had run out of defensive missiles, and we were burning through our defensive missiles at a frightening pace. Well, today's the 12th day of this war, so we're basically where we were last June, and one would expect, and one sees lots of evidence of it, that the Israelis and the Americans and our allies in the Gulf states are running at a defensive missiles. How badly has Israel been damaged, both physically by bombs and politically, by Netanyahu exposing the public to needlessly to the wrath of the Iranian military?

8:23Well, it's very hard to say because the Israeli censorship has been almost airtight. It's quite remarkable how few reports we've been getting out of Israel on what kind of damage is being inflicted by the Iranians on the Israeli homeland. The other thing is that the Iranians have made it clear that in the first 12 days of the war, they have concentrated mainly on American targets and on targets in the Gulf states. This is not to say they haven't attacked Israel, but you remember in the 12-day war, they didn't attack the Gulf states, and they didn't attack American bases. They focused laser-like on attacking Israel, but this time they have three sets of targets, as I said. The Gulf state targets, the American targets, and the Israeli targets. And there is some evidence, take this with a grain of salt, that the Iranians are now shifting most of their attacks to going after Israel.

9:25And Israel, of course, is running out of defensive launchers, and therefore is in a precarious position, and is likely over the next couple weeks to get humbled much more than it has been in these first 12 days of this conflict. Do you think Trump, well, a Trump called President Trump called President Putin yesterday? We don't know exactly what they discussed. The Russian said it was a serious and constructive and candid. The President said President Trump said President Putin praised the American military. It's hard for me to believe that, but that's what he said. Do you think he's looking for some sort of an off-ramp here that he recognizes that this war can't go on much longer? I think there's no question that he's looking for an off-ramp. I would assume that that's why he called Putin, because Putin isn't a good position if anyone is to sort of negotiate an end to this conflict.

10:25But if you think about Trump's situation, he has not won a victory here. He can say he's won a victory, but you cannot tell a plausible story about how we have won this war so far. Furthermore, if you think about continuing the fight, what we have to do is go up the escalation ladder to win the fight. But if you go up the escalation ladder, in my opinion, you're not going with the fight, you're going to make a bad situation worse. So this makes no sense. And he is flirting with a situation where the international economy could end being maybe even catastrophically damaged or at least badly damaged. We haven't felt the full effects of the 12 days of war on the international economy yet, but that's been hit in the next week or so. And furthermore, more damage is going to be done to that economy in the weeks ahead,

11:26which is just going to make a bad situation worse. So Trump and his advisors surely understand that this has not worked out the way Prime Minister Netanyahu told him it was going to work out. And they better figure a way out. They better find an off ramp. But if you can find the off ramp, please let me know, because I don't see what the off ramp is. Right, right. This horrible, horrible state of affairs with the girl's school. Scott Ritter has told us that he's studied the videos and five missiles hit the school and the buildings around it, the fifth of which was the second missile to hit the school. It was a missile that when it strikes its unused fuel is triggered to ignite, to cause tremendous fire. And the the girls weren't incinerated.

12:29Trump said, well, I'll let you hear what he said, cut number 10. Did the United States bomb a girls elementary school in southern Iran on the first day of the war in 175 people, based on what I've seen that was done by Iran. Is that true, Mr. Hexson? They was Iran. You did that? We're certainly investigating. Still investigating. But the only side that targets civilians is Iran. We think it was done. We think it was done by Iran. They're very inaccurate as you know with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever. We're just done by Iran. He was pressed by two reporters, the second of which is an E.R. Times reporter who's being lauded by his fellow journalists this morning. We'll play both for you. Chris, 18 and 19 back to back. Kamahak missile likely destroyed that Iranian girl school. So will the Americans, will the U.S. accept any responsibility?

13:31Well, I haven't seen it. And I will say that the Tamahak, which is one of the most powerful weapons around, is used by, you know, his soul and used by other countries, you know that. And whether it's Iran, who also has some Tamahak say, we should have had more. But whether it's Iran or somebody else, the fact that it's Tamahak, a Tamahak is very generic. It's sold to other countries. But that's being investigated right now. You just suggested that Iran somehow got its hands on a Tamahak and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war. But you're the only person in your government saying this. Even your defense secretary wouldn't say that when he was asked, standing over your shoulder on your plane on Saturday. Why are you the only person saying this? Because I just don't know enough about it. I think it's something that I was told is under investigation. But Tamahak's are used by others, as you know. Numerous other nations have Tamahak's. They buy them from us. But I will certainly, whatever the report shows, I'm willing to live with that report.

14:33This is madness, more than ignorance, to suggest that the Iranians would have slaughtered 170 of their own schoolgirls. First of all, it's ludicrous to say that Iran has Tamahak missiles. I mean, who would make that argument? And you want to remember in the first clip that you played, he said that Iran has no missiles that have any accuracy whatsoever. That contradicts the argument that they have Tamahak's, which are highly accurate weapons. But furthermore, again, the idea that they have Tamahak's is crazy. The idea that they purposely targeted this girl school with a Tamahak missile. I mean, who seriously believes that? I think it's very clear what happened here, by the way. I think the Americans did hit that school with a Tamahak missile. And they thought it was a military target. It appears quite clearly that that girl school was once part of the naval base,

15:36right next door, that we were targeting. And they went after that school with the Tamahak's, thinking that they were going after a naval base. I don't believe that the United States purposely targeted the girl school, so that they could kill 170 plus little girls. I just don't believe that. This was a tragic mistake. And Trump should admit that and take the issue off the table. Say it was a tragic mistake. It's not the way the United States is supposed to wage war. And in this case, it's not the way we are waging more. But of course, instead of doing that, he engages in all these lies and distortions and keeps the issue alive and makes us look hypocritical. And also, it makes us look like we don't really care. We don't have any sense of decency left. You recently spoke. I'm not sure when and where, but we're going to play the clip

16:36in which you articulated your concern, dismay, misunderstanding, condemnation, if you will. Don't let me put a word in your mouth at the loss of life visited by the United States in the Middle East and elsewhere from sanctions and from wars. We're going to play a little bit of that clip and then I'll ask you to elaborate. I was looking at a study the other day put out by the Lancet, which is a scientific journal. And it asked what were the consequences of those sanctions. And we murdered 38 million people. 38 million people. The amount of havoc we have brought on the Middle East and recent years is just stunning. If you think about the consequences of Iraq war, what we do in places like Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, you understand we're using this tremendous economic leverage we have to basically starve people, to make them suffer,

17:37to inflict great punishment on them, so that they'll rise up against their government. You understand that this is what we're doing in Venezuela, this is what we're doing in Iran. We're inflicting massive punishment on these people. Give them all that. I find it very difficult to talk about the United States as a noble country. What statistics have the Lancet gathered and how did the United States kill 38 million people? Yeah, the Lancet study, which is readily available on the internet, was done, I think, last, late last summer of this is 2025. And Lancet, of course, is a highly respected scientific journal. Right. Lancet did, or the investigators did, is that they looked at the effect of US sanctions on different countries around the world between 1971 and 2021.

18:42So 1971 to 2021. And of course, we were sanctioning lots of countries because that is our modus operandi. And the study concludes that during that period, we'd basically murdered 38 million people. 38 million people, this is truly stunning. And this doesn't include, as I said, in the clip that you just played, all the people that we killed, not with sanctions, but in other ways, in the Iraq war. And don't forget, I mean, and this is of enormous importance, that we are part of a tag team. And the other member of that tag team is the Israelis. When you talk about murder and maim in the Middle East, I mean, they're probably even better at creating it than we are. And we've talked about the genocide on many occasions on the show. And although it's the Israelis who are executing the genocide in Gaza, we are fully complicit in that genocide.

19:43And that includes not just President Trump, but President Biden as well. So the crime of all crimes, genocide, is one that we have participated in, in addition to all those people that we've murdered with sanctions in our various wars in the Middle East. Well, here's the Iranian foreign minister, professor Mir Shimer, on Sunday, the very interesting observations that he made. It's not very long. Chris, number 17. Well, they have to explain why they started this aggression. Before we come to the point to even consider a ceasefire. Of course, nobody wants to continue this war. This is not our war. This is not our, you know, the war of our choice. This is imposed on us by the United States, by Israelis. They have, you know, started this war, unprovoked, unwarranted illegally.

20:45And what we are doing is illegal, is legal act of self-defense. And we have every right to do that. So it is not fair that if they, that if only it stops the aggression and asks us to stop too, you know, as I said, this time is different. Publication is that he received some communication probably from an intermediary that the United States wanted to consider a ceasefire. They're not going to receive such a consideration amicably, are they? Let me make two points. You want to remember that when the 12-day war ended last June, a lot of people, me included, thought it was foolish of the Iranians from their perspective to agree to a ceasefire. They were pretty much in the driver's seat. It was the Israelis and the Americans who wanted to end the 12-day war. And the Iranians went along. But one could make a powerful argument that they should have continued the war.

21:45And I think that logic is kicked in here. Now, this point, and maybe even more important point is that if Iran is going to agree to put an end to the war, they have to get some benefits, some positive, there has to be some positive benefits for them for ending the war. And what they're going to want is at least significant sanctions relief. But they're also probably going to call for reparations given all the destruction that's been brought on their country. And the question you have to ask yourself is, can you imagine the United States agreeing to lift the substantial number of the sanctions that are already on Iran for purposes of ending this war? Can you imagine the Americans paying reparations? I find it hard to imagine us doing that. But if we don't do that, tell me how the war ends.

22:49Why would the Iranians quit if they don't get any sanctions relief, if they don't get any benefits for having waged this war? To just agree to a ceasefire, from their point of view, doesn't make sense, because you'll pretty soon be back to the situation that existed before February 28th. And they'll just be preparing for another war. So once they're in this war and once they've paid the price, they have paid so far, they have a deep-seated interest in continuing the war and trying to inflict massive punishment on us and getting us to scream, Uncle, before they scream, Uncle. So I think if you listen to what the foreign minister, the Iranian foreign minister was saying, and you extrapolate from that, you see just how difficult it's going to be for President Trump to bring this war to an end, which he clearly has an incentive to do at this point. Here's a montage of the President's supporters.

23:49You'll recognize some of the names and faces. They apparently got the talking points because they all use the same one cut number two. This is a short-term disruption for the long-term gain. Short-term pain for the long-term gain. Short-term pain be for long-term gain. We're gonna have some short-term pain with long-term gain. Some short-term pain, yes, but we've got some long-term gain. Some short-term pain for American consumers. We may have to deal with that in the short term. Short-term in temporary. Temporary short-term pain. It's going to stuck in the short-term. Some short-term pain. Short-term pain. We have to focus on the short-term. Short-term. Short-term short-term short-term and long-term short-term left. hopefully this is a short-term pain, short-term, is highly outweighed of the long-term benefits. Some short-term pain for the long-term gain. Well, I wonder if Prime Minister Netanyahu will call up Washington and say, Uncle, it's possible, but I just want to say that when you engage in a war,

24:55it's very important to understand that there are two sides and that one side doesn't set terms of the war, and that's the end of the story. I know the Secretary of Defense has made exactly that point in those words, and of course, you hear all these people talking as if we will determine ourselves whether it's a short war or a long war. And of course, they're basically arguing that we are going to win a war quickly, and then that's the end of it. So, pain in the short-term, but not in the long-term, gain in the long-term. But the problem with that logic is it forgets that the Iranians have a voice, and the Iranians have a deep-seated interest in turning this war into a long war. When you listen to these people talk about how desirable a short war is, you know they're saying, in effect, we don't want a long war. The Iranians fully understand that, and that's why they want a long war,

25:58because they understand they can inflict great pain in the long-term. So, I think that it will be the Americans and the Israelis who put an end to this war, not the Iranians, because the Iranians have a deep-seated interest in just fighting on. What will be the effects of this war on bricks? Well, first of all, there's been an important split in bricks up to this point. The four major states in bricks are, of course, Brazil, Russia, India, and China. That's where you get the Akron and brick. And Brazil, Russia, and China have vehemently protested or criticized the American Israeli war against Iran and the assassination of Ayatollah Hameini as well, but the Indians have not.

27:01So, there is, at this point in time, an important fault line inside of bricks on this war. What is the long-term effect? Look, the long-term effect of this is that more and more countries around the world are going to have less and less interest in having a close relationship, certainly a close strategic relationship, but even a close economic relationship with the United States. The United States is a rogue elephant. We could talk about the Indian case. The Indians, if they're smart, will do everything they can to put as much distance between themselves as and the United States as possible. Now, there's no question that they have strategic interest that overlap and those strategic interests involve China. But putting that aside, you don't want to get too close to the United States because the United States will end up putting wicked tariffs on you or doing something else that's designed to hurt your economy or hurts you strategically.

28:03Look at these states in the Gulf region and given what's happened here, the United States and Israel dragged these Gulf states into a war that could have catastrophic consequences. I mean, if this war escalates and the Iranians really go after those Gulf states, they go after the desalination plants and they go after oil infrastructure in those Gulf states, they can almost literally destroy countries like the UAE. So they are in a terrible situation and I would say that they have figured out that this is the price you pay for getting too close to Uncle Sam and they're not the only countries in the world that don't understand this. All this to answer your question is a way of saying that bricks overall will benefit from this fiasco. Oh, but sometimes the United States will give permission to a member of bricks

29:04to buy oil from Russia. Watch Secretary Besant. The Indians had been very good actors. We had asked them to stop buying sanctioned Russian oil this fall. They did. They were going to substitute with U.S. oil, but to ease the temporary gap of oil around the world, we have given them permission to accept the Russian oil. We may unsanction other Russian oil. The other thing Treasury can do here, Larry, is there are hundreds of millions of sanctions, barrels of sanction crude on the water and, in essence, by unsanctioning them, Treasury can create supply. I didn't know the Indians needed the permission of the U.S. Treasury to buy oil from Russia. I was on Indian TV yesterday talking about this very issue. Very important to understand that the

30:05Indians are an especially proud people and the idea that they need America's permission to buy oil from the Russians just enrages them. They were already mad at President Trump because last year when there was a flare-up between Pakistan and India and the Indians in the Pakistanis settled that conflict largely between themselves. President Trump came along and said that he was responsible for ending that conflict. That enraged the Indians. The clip that you just paid enraged the Indians. It's just all evidence of just how much damage we're doing in our relationships with countries all over the world, with countries that we need. We can get away with a lot of this because we're so powerful. It's just very important to understand that the reason that President Trump is allowed to behave the way he does and the way he gets away with so much is because

31:08the United States is remarkably powerful and people around the world are afraid of offending the United States, which is another way of saying they're afraid of offending President Trump. So he can whiplash people as he sees fit. But there is a price to pay and we are paying that price and I believe with the passage of time the price is going to increase. Chris, can you put up the full screen from the Wall Street Journal that you and I just talked about? This is this morning's Wall Street Journal, a newspaper owned by Rupert Murdock and largely favorable to President Trump. Trump advisors urged him to find Iran exit ramp, fearing political backlash. Does this make sense to you? Absolutely. I mean, before the war started on February 28, most people thought that the Republicans were going to get clobbered in the midterm elections. This is before the war. Now the war has started.

32:09And remember, this was an unpopular war. Before it started, only 20% of the people in the United States, only 40% of Republicans were in favor of the war. There was a headline. I think it was in the Wall Street Journal said that this was the first time that a president took the United States into a war. Republic opinion was clearly against that war. And when you marry that fact that the fact that the war is not going well, you see where this could be catastrophic for the Republican party in the fall. And it could be catastrophic for President Trump because if you get large majorities of Democrats in control of both the Senate and the House, impeachment will be a serious issue for sure. And this will be a huge headache for President Trump. Yes, I think you're right, Professor Mayor Shimer. Thank you very much. Thanks for your time.

33:10Thanks for that great clip. I had no idea that that number of dead by starvation and war and the absence of medicines was 38 million. It's truly, truly, truly staggering and embarrassing, humiliating, reckless. You almost can't come up with enough negative adjectives to character. I said, thank you, John. All the best, my dear friend. And all the best to you, Judge. Thank you. Coming up later today at 1 o'clock this afternoon on all of this, Aaron Matey at 2 o'clock at 3 o'clock Colonel Karen Kutkowski, just in the Paul Tenor for judging freedom.