Premier League Predictions, Who Wins the Manchester Derby?: A Tad Predictable

0:00Before the season even kicks off, soccer fans are already making predictions. Who wins the league? Who qualifies for Europe? And who's lifting the trophy at seasons end? On Kalshi America's number one prediction market platform, your trading against peers in a live market, meaning there's no house. And as the probability changes, you can buy in and out of your position. For a limited time, download the Kalshi app and use code CUP26 to get $10 when you trade 10. KALSHI Kalshi trade the beautiful game. 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading in Volsarist can may not be suitable for all investors. Price's values and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see Kalshi.com slash regulatory. Does it again? For your insurance and financial needs,

1:02nationwide is on your side. Nationwide Investment Services Corporation, Ember Finra, Columbus, Ohio. Place Light Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability very 18 plus. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls,

2:05children of all ages. EBL index proudly brings to you the best prediction pod cost in the world. A tad predictable. Your host, Pudiywa Chanukira. It's Game Week 4 and you know what that means. It's time for another brand new episode of A tad predictable. We are coming you on the brink of yet another Manchester Derby this weekend. And boy, is it going to be an interesting one. But that's not the only fixture that we're going to be going through today. We'll go through all 10 fixtures this weekend. Just some admin, no Friday games. So those people that play fantasy football don't worry. You don't have to chase any deadlines this evening.

3:07You don't even need to wake up early tomorrow because there's no 1230 game either. The kickoff start at 3 o'clock British Standard time. But we do have an 8 o'clock game. That is that Sunderland Arsenal game. And then on Sunday we've got two games and we do indeed have a Monday 8 o'clock game. Of course, this show comes to you on Fridays at 2 p.m. British Standard time. And on Mondays at 10 p.m. British Standard time. So that will be straight after that 8 p.m. game. We will be live. Come join us. We'll react to the weekend. We'll react to any big news that may have transpired over the course of the weekend. And of course, discuss that Monday night football game. But as you guys are coming in, welcome. Please do smash the like button and subscribe to EPL Index on YouTube. Turn on that notification bell to make sure that you never miss a show. As I mentioned, very, very busy week for a lot of these Premier League teams.

4:08Some of them had Carabal Cup action. Some of them had European action. And then of course, they have to turn all attention back to the biggest league in the world, the Premier League. Obviously, I do want to mention as well before we get going. We asked running our September giveaway. We're giving away 20, 20 pound Amazon give voucher at the end of this month. The live draw for the winner will be, I believe, on the 28th, Monday the 28th of September. And all you have to do to get your name onto that wheel, it's pretty easy. If you're joining us live on a tad predictable episode here on YouTube, all you have to do is like the podcast episode and jump into the chat. Leave a comment in the chat and you will automatically be added onto the wheel. And if you can't watch the show's live, I get it. No worries at all. Just head over to EPL Index YouTube channel. Like any of the tad predictable episodes for the month of September.

5:11Leave a comment in there as well and then you'll be added to the wheel. As I said, the wheel spin will take place on the 28th of September. And we obviously had a win last week, the last month deselect. They've already been sent their Amazon give voucher and all that good stuff. They've actually entered this year. I mean, this month's award as well. So if they win back to back, that would be quite interesting. But yeah, definitely just go leave a comment like the episode and your name automatically goes on with the chance to win that Amazon. Gift voucher. Right, let's move on to the first game. I'm not going to do them in order to start off with because we have a very big game that we need to discuss first and foremost before we head into any of these other games. I think we have to pay this game. The respected deserves this weekend. As you're running through the fixtures this weekend, yes, there are some interesting games. Some of them maybe not as interesting as others.

6:14But of course, it's going to be headlined by Manchester United versus Man City. It's at Old Trafford on Sunday, 430 kickoff if you are in the UK, British Standard time. And I'm really looking forward to this game because to me, it's going to be an interesting game. We've seen Man United in the past in recent history where City have been going for league titles. Man United have tended to be a thorn in City side at times, especially in these Darby's. It's now a completely different era. You've got Mereska there taking over at Man City. You've got Michael Carrick taking over at Man United. Officially, the season right, having been caretaker manager. It's two managers that clearly are still trying to implement all of their philosophies. Obviously, Carrick has a head start on that and he has been putting certain pieces into play.

7:14But in terms of what Man United have been trying to do, it's been about 18 months now, I would say, where Man United have been trying to put together some sort of attack that is consistent, that when everyone is fit and firing, we all know who's going to be involved in that attack. And I think a lot of that has to do with their inability to land that marquee front line player, that striker that's going to leave the line, that's going to score the goals for Man United, that's going to take them to league titles and champions, leagues and domestic cups that all Man United fans want to get back to. Have they gotten that person now with a Benjamin Cesco? Obviously, we saw midweek, they had a game. Maybe not the most formidable opponents, maybe not the most well-known opponents, but you still have to go and beat those teams and Man United were able to do that.

8:16And we have to give them credit for that, right? I just want to talk about Cesco himself. And you look at the fact that he is potentially the person that can go on to then need this Man United line for seasons to come. And so far this season, based on his numbers, he's played 117 minutes this season, he's got two goals, he's had five shots, one goal every 58.5 minutes. Now that is something Man United can definitely work for, whether or not it's sustainable, I'll argue it's not, because if it is, boy, I'm Man United, in for a fun ride, it's going to taper down a bit, you know, the more games he plays this season. But you look at that relative to last season where he scored seven goals for Michael Karak in about 595 minutes, and that goes to about one in every 85 minutes. So we're trying to see how low can he get those minutes per goal, and how consistent can he be,

9:19and can he be the player that then comes into that Man United line, is able to stretch teams and give Man United a different dimension, maybe to what they've had in recent seasons. And you look at Karak himself, and I want to get this quote right, he mentioned after their game midweek that there's not many around who give you what Ben does in terms of his physicality, playing on the last line, his speed to run in behind, he is a real threat. I think that's important for Man United. The manager went on to also say, my entire attacking structure works better when CESCO is on the pitch. If that's basically what he's saying, right, that's what he's telling you, without telling you, because he's able to play on the shoulder of the defenders and be able to run in behind, whereas a lot of the players that they've played upfront, whether it is a Zerke seed that deputizes at this present point in time, even a Kunya playing there as a false nine, they all want to drop deep,

10:23they all want to get built, they all want to get involved in that builder play, and it doesn't necessarily always help Man United in the best possible way in games. You've got the likes of a Bruno Fernandez that can control things from an attacking creative perspective in midfield. You've got them where most you've got the Kunya's, utilize those players to be the creators, you need someone that can finish things all, and the CESCO can become that. Before the season even kicks off, soccer fans are already making predictions. Who wins the league? Who qualifies for Europe? And who's lifting the trophy at seasons end? On Kalshi America's number one prediction market platform, your trading against peers in a live market, meaning there's no house. And as the probability changes, you can buy in and out of your position. For a limited time, download the Kalshi app and use code CUP26 to get $10 when you trade 10. KALSHI, Kalshi, trade the beautiful game. 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading in Volsriss can may not be suitable for all investors. Prices, values, and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information,

11:26see Kalshi.com slash regulatory. Nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company. They're one of America's largest financial services companies. Just like I'm so much more than quarterback Peyton Manning. I'm also Peyton Manning. Insurance and financial services together. It's a masterpiece. Peyton Manning does it again. For your insurance and financial needs, nationwide is on your side. Nationwide investment services corporation, Ember, Finnewett, Columbus, Ohio, then man United are off to the races this season. And I think it's important because if you look at how city have been playing this season under Maresca, it's not as controlled as we've seen with the Pepp Guardiola team. It's a lot more direct. The pace is quickened a bit more. The wingers are playing a lot higher than what we'd expect in the Pepp Guardiola team. And they're not afraid to put

12:26the ball into the box early and often for early in Harland. Opposed to maybe a more patient build up from a pep side. So with that also comes the wingers that get pushed further up the pit. I mean, the the the fullbacks, the wingbacks, right? They get pushed further up the pitch as well to try and help with that direct play, feeding the ball into the box often, trying to create as many chances as possible by throwing balls into the box. If you have a says go in the team that can stretch that defensive line, it makes those fullbacks pause a little bit and think about whether or not they can advance forward for man city or are they risking getting exposed defensively when Kunya goes on the break. If I'm man United, it's quite simple. Keep it compact defensively as simple as that can be, right? Neither team has been good defensively. But keep it compact at the back as soon as we win the ball, first person we look for is Bruno Fernandez and can he,

13:31you know, the ball goes to Bruno Fernandez as soon as we win the ball as well off the ball, Boemo, Hugo, Cesco, Hugo and you trust Bruno Fernandez in that situation to be able to pick the right pass either in Boemo on the right hand side or Cesco if he peels to the left or heads straight down the middle, I think that's where man United's success will be, is getting the ball to their playmaker as quickly as possible, trying to break city's defensive shape in transition. And we've seen this season for Manchester City, there've been a bit careless on the ball and lost the ball in some very dangerous situations, I would say, where the rest defense is not necessarily you have a semenna who's been guilty of this quite a few times, you have a Cherokee who's been guilty of this a couple of times, lose the ball when the defense isn't necessarily set and teams are able to break on them. And if you've got someone that's as gifted a passer as Bruno Fernandez, if you've

14:32got someone that's got the pace of Boemo, if you've got someone that's playing off the shoulder in Asesco, I think that is a way to capitalize on the issues that man city will be going through as they're transitioning into this meresco team. So I'm really looking forward to this game. As I mentioned, neither of these teams from a defensive perspective have been good. United have conceded six goals in their three Premier League games. You look at the defensive line, it's quite bare at the moment. Sure, it's fighting to be fit for this game. You've got a Delict who's out obviously Belieber who's going to be that anchor for them in midfield. He's not going to be in this game. The explosive attacking player of an amateur, I think he would have suited this game as well in terms of being that outlet that I'm talking about that Boemo is going to have to be. And then obviously Dogu is still learning that side of the game from it from a defensive perspective. So there's a lot

15:36for them to kind of sink their teeth into and get going. For city from a defensive perspective, I mean, you look at them midweek, it wasn't smooth sailing. Yes, they went in one of the game, but Guahi arguably was lucky not to get sent off. Vario, I think, looked a bit shaky in that game, which is quite unusual for him. And then I've mentioned the likes of Semenya and Cherkyu who are losing possession, cause problems for them in transition from a defensive perspective. We saw Coventry got a few chances because of that in the previous game. And then obviously Bournemouth were able to exploit that quite a bit as well. So I think if I'm an attacking player in this game, there are goals to be had, there are goal contributions to be had, definitely looking forward to it from a defensive perspective. Just don't let it be you that caustes the game. That's all I'm asking you to be a 10 out of 10 performance. I think both of these teams would be happy if their defenses give just a solid six or seven out of

16:3810, where we don't even talk about you, nothing special, nothing, you know, no unforced errors, and let the stars go and be the stars from an attacking perspective. For City, I've mentioned, you know, the more direct play, the more trying to put the ball in the boxes often, trying to give Erling Holland as many chances as they can give him, because we all know his conversion rate is quite good. The amount of goals he's scoring is quite good. He's not is it 59 goals in the Champions League in 59 games, which is absolutely insane. And he's doing bits in the league as well, whether or not he'll get to the thousand goals that Jamie Caragel was talking about the other day, Time World's Hell, ages not necessarily on on his side with regards to that and the amount of goals he'll need to score each season to achieve that, but Erling Holland is a talented footballer and if you give him chances, he's going to bury them. So again, looking at how these teams defensively have looked this season, this looks to me like a very high scoring game.

17:44You think a man city in previous seasons come into this one as big favorites. You look at the league table, you think this season, man city come into this one as favorites, but the way from home, obviously not that far away from home, but it's still in a way game against a team that has caused him problems in the past. We all know Derby games, they say the form goes out the window and all of that fun stuff. So I'm thinking this is going to end up as a tutu draw. And the question for man city is is that enough with the pace that Arsenal looked like they're going to set early on this season? Is a tutu draw enough in this game? And how much pressure can they keep on Arsenal, you know, going on this season? So that's the question for me. I don't know what you guys think in terms of score predictions, but I'm thinking of tutu drawing this one. As I said, I don't trust either of these teams' defenses. I do trust their attacking output in terms of the players that they're looking to feature in this game. From an early Harlem perspective, it's just their inevitability

18:48of being early in Harlem. He will score goals. And this is a tailor-made game for him to do that. And then from a Benjamin Cezko perspective, I think this game could highlight the things that he does well and that suit his style of football, being able to play in transition football, being able to be an outlet playing on the shoulder of the defenders. He's going to have a lot more space to move around with the ball in this game than other games where teams are going to sit back and invite Man United forward. He's going to have a lot of pitch to work with. This has to be a coming out party for him. And from my perspective, we've had on this podcast, grown up conversations with a couple of players this season. And I think it's worked out quite well for them. The likes of a Florian virt, the likes of Alexander Isak, they seem to be getting into gear. We've had grown up conversations with an Ode to God. He seems to be stepping up this season as well. I think Benjamin Cezko, it's time for his grown up conversation. This is his season to solidify

19:51himself as the person that's going to lead Man United's front line for the next five years. If you want to be optimistic the next 10 years, whatever the case may be, this is the season to showcase that United don't need to go get anyone to start ahead of him. Maybe they can bring in some to be a backup, but he has to perform in these type of games and he has to start performing in this season. And again, I say this game is tailor made for him to be able to go on and execute that. So interesting game. I'm excited to see how it goes. Obviously, you are listening to a tab predictable on the EPL index channel. We are talking primarily games for this game week four. Let's move on now. Now we can get back into order of how the games are going to kick off. Obviously, I wanted to get that Man United, Man City, Darby, Manchester, Darby out of the way. I wanted to give it their respect. I think it deserves this weekend in terms of being that feature

20:53game that we spend a bit more time on and we dive into maybe the intricacies of where we can think the game is going to turn. And from our perspective, it's going to be those two attacking players. We're going to be watching Benjamin Cezko very closely. We're going to be watching Erling Harland closely. Obviously, there's a lot more confidence in Harland with his record and the present he said in the league. But I think this is a game that suits a Benjamin Cezko. Right. Let's move on to our next game. It is Ashton Villa versus Nondingham Forest. I mean, for these two teams, seasons that I've predicted are going to be regression seasons for them. Obviously, they won't be happy with that. They'll be wanting to prove me wrong. But I'm looking at how they've gone about their season so far. And Nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company. They're one of America's largest financial services companies, just like I'm so much more than quarterback Peyton Manning. I'm also Peyton Manning. Insurance and financial services together.

21:58It's a masterpiece. Peyton Manning does it again. For your insurance and financial needs, Nationwide is on your side. Nationwide Investment Services Corporation Ember Finra, Columbus, Ohio. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online makes sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability. Very 18 plus. There are concerns because it looks like it's going to take a lot longer. I appreciate obviously Estonville gone and win midweek against Club Rouge, whether or not that is confident a performance is out one from them. I don't know, but results are important in this early regeneration of Estonville. You look at it from a noddingham forest perspective,

23:08they're a team who from an attacking perspective. They haven't necessarily lit things up. We know Glasner comes in, he sets up his shape really well. He plays with a structure is quite comfortable with and players seem to get quite comfortable in it from a defensive perspective. Then he works as magic with a metetta or whoever may be to bring out that focal point upfront, to then get the goals that platform, the structure that's working really well behind them. We'll see whether or not forest are able to achieve that in this game. I think the concern for me is for Estonville. It's a game where you're playing a tough opponent in a Glasner team. We all know they're already going to be tough. We know how competitive noddingham forests have been in recent seasons. I'm wondering is this already a must win game for noddingham forests, which is a scary thing. For both teams for noddingham forests and for Estonville. As I mentioned,

24:11it's a scary thing to think about the fact that you have must win games so early in the season. But considering the aspirations of these two teams, they've not necessarily had the hardest starts. You've got an Estonville who haven't won a game this season. You've got a noddingham forest who haven't won a game this season. Both of them, specifically from a Estonville perspective, they're a team that hasn't scored a goal so far this season. That's cause for concern. Can they get the front line firing from a league perspective? As I mentioned, obviously champions league, they went on and won that game. Then for noddingham forests as well, they only have two goals this season. Again, teething problems from an attacking perspective, from a fluidity perspective, from a clinical perspective. Whether or not either of these teams can get going, that's going to be important for them from a long-term perspective. It's going to get very busy from a fixture perspective. So you want to start picking up points quite early this season. So for me, I think it's more a

25:16must win for Estonville with all the attention they've got to focus on European football and the attention they have to focus on. I'm sure their fans will be expected from cup perspectives and then from a league perspective. Getting rid of all those senior players, getting rid of all those key players down the spine of the team. I don't think that dampers the expectations of Estonville fans. I think it should a little bit. I think we have to be realistic and admit it's going to be a regression season. I don't think they're going to take it that way. So it's important for them to pick up points whilst they're still getting through these teething problems. In terms of a prediction, I think this is a game that probably is a coin flip. I'm not very certain in terms of confidence levels on, you know, with respect to either of these teams. I think on their day, they could spark but because of that, I'm going to have to kind of send the fans a little bit here. I'm going to go with the one-one draw. I just feel like the fact that neither of these teams have gotten firing from an

26:19attacking perspective, it's going to bear fruit again in this game. I know, as I keep saying, the Champions League game for Estonville is a factor. I get that. But yes, you get the confidence from the win. You get a confidence from those goals. But what does it take away from an energy perspective as well? I do have to factor that in. So I'm going to go with the one-one draw. I think both teams then leave the game quite frustrated. As I said, they got to get going this season. They got to start picking up points because I think the expectations of what they're going to do this season are posted the reality of the situations. Both of these teams find themselves in, I think, are still a bit separated. And the best way to quell that is to pick up points where you can. Right. Let's move on to our next game. I think this is low key, a fun game for this weekend. Maybe the hipster's choice for the future game, not the Man United Manch the City game. I've predicted the 2-2 for that Man United Man City game. But we've seen big games in the past get quite

27:19cagey. No one wants to lose the game and it ends up being quite a low scoring contest. I don't think we're going to have an issue with this game. Bournemouth versus Brentford, it's one of the 500 games that are kicking off on Saturday at 3pm. British Standard Time. You look at the attacking output from both of these teams. You look at the fact that Bournemouth at home, they've in their last 10 home games, if I'm not mistaken, they lost 10 home games. They've got a 5.25 goals per game across all 10 home games. In terms of both teams to score in this game, this is the candidate this weekend. If you are a betting man or woman, if that's your style, I'm not. But if that's your style, I think this is a game where you can comfortably say both teams are going to go and score and take that to the bank with you. Right. The basically very, very exciting attacking teams,

28:20direct teams, obviously from a systems perspective, both teams like to play within their systems and can chop and change individual players into those systems. Ideally, you want the better players in the teams. But whenever they lose a player, it doesn't seem to affect them as much as it does with other teams. So you look at Bournemouth missing the likes of a croppy missing, the likes of an Adley and all of these guys, they're still able to be quite fluid from an attacking perspective. And then from a Brentford side of things, they didn't really lose anyone of importance, no offense to the Henderson's of the world, but they didn't lose anyone really important this offseason. They've just looked to try and add to that team and they were phenomenal in preseason. Probably disappointed with the overall results. So far this season, yes, you look at the fact that they looked impressive against Tottenham, but then you look at the two draws that they had after that,

29:22frustrating draws, especially last time was at the Sandland game where you're thinking they're going to see the game out and they end up not seeing the game out. Those are the type of games that Brentford need to win if they're going to fulfill the pros of prophecy that I gave, that they are going to be one of the teams that breaks into that European football place. I've got them finishing fifth this season. If they are going to do that, you kind of have to go and beat these Bournemouth away and these are tough fixtures, but if you are to have those aspirations, these are the games that it starts getting to where, okay, you drop the points at home to Sandland, you have to pick them up against Bournemouth now. Whereas beforehand, I think a draw would have been fine if the Sandland result went their way. From a Bournemouth perspective, again, also another one of those candidate teams that are trying to upset the traditionally big six, big seven, whatever you want to throw in their teams and get into European football. I just think it's going to be a very, very end-to-end

30:26type of game. Both teams going full-pout in terms of attacking output, quick transitions from defense to offense for both of these teams. If you are a midfield in this game, I feel sorry for you because there's going to be a lot of running, there's going to be a lot of concentration that needs to take place in terms of being in the right place at the right time because the Bournemouth awfully quick in this one. In terms of score predictions, another game that I'm thinking a two-two draw, but I think this is going to arguably be the most fun game to watch this weekend and I'm definitely, you know, you look at those 3PM kickoffs, obviously I'm a bit biased with Liverpool being in one of these games, but in terms of the rest of the 3PM kickoff games, I think this is the game I'm probably going to have certainly on one of the TVs, one of the screens and keeping a close eye on. Right, let's move on to our next game. It is Chelsea vs. Hal. I'm very curious about how this game goes

31:27because obviously the great story, the Cinderella story that is Hal and what they've been doing this season in the league, right? A team that sits very high up in the Premier League this season, probably, you know, getting a nosebleed there so high up in the league table, many would have predicted them to be one of the teams relegated before the season started. They sit on seven points, two points behind the leaders man city and Arsenal who are both on nine points, but the only team that hasn't conceded a goal this season, yes, they've got a better defense than that formidable Arsenal defense at this present point in time from a goals-conceded perspective. But the thing for me is when you then peel back and you dig a bit deeper, you look at the underlying numbers for the Hal City games, it's not looking as good as is currently being presented.

32:30Certainly on mainstream media, they seem like a team that are the best defensive team because of the fact that they haven't conceded. But if you look at the amount of chances that they're conceding to other teams, they can't sustain it like this. The damn wall is going to break at a certain point in time and they need to become more stingy from a defensive perspective, from the amount of chances they're allowing the teams to score. They're doing well and making sure the teams don't score those goals, you've created to them for that. But this is where XG actually becomes a factor. Not these, I know mainstream media is loving XG over the last year or two and they're started, after every game they'll tell you, 1.1 versus 2XG, it's very deceiving and disingenuous what they're doing with XG because when you look at what XG actually is,

33:31it's not saying this game should have ended two-one. It's collecting all the chances that were taken during that game and it's adding the totals of those chances. So it can show you a pattern of where things are going from over a long period of time. But on a game by game sample size, that's two small sample size to actually use XG as your parameter of exactly how that game should go. Not even taking into account the added fact that there's also stuff like post-shot XG, which is a more appropriate thing to look at because we have to take into account what the keeper did, how the keeper reacted to these chances and stuff like that. But let's not get into that. I do think though it wasn't going to be a dimension that because from the pattern perspective, and obviously we only three games in, but this is a pattern that's starting to form,

34:31Halsity aren't actually as good as being portrayed from a defensive perspective. Yes, the teams haven't been finishing the chances that Hall have been affording them. But I think the tide will turn. If you keep allowing Premier League teams to have the level of chances that Hall are allowing, the dam wall is going to break and it's going to be problems for Hall. Then equally on the other side of the pitch, I don't think they're getting the goals they need from their attacking players. And the reason I say that is they are getting chances as well, but they're not very clinical attackers. And if they're not getting a lot of chances, nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company. They're one of America's largest financial services companies, just like I'm so much more than quarterback Peyton Manning. I'm also Peyton Manning. Insurance and financial services together, it's a masterpiece. Peyton Manning does it again. For your insurance and

35:34financial needs, nationwide is on your side. Nationwide Investment Services Corporation Ember Finra at Columbus, Ohio. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online makes sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability varies 18 plus. And they're not clinical. They're not going to be scoring a lot of goals this season. And once that defense regresses back to the meme in terms of the amount of chances they're allowing and teams actually start putting away those chances. And then you're struggling to create chances from an attacking perspective. They're going to end up getting a lot more draws. They're going to end up losing a lot more games and it becomes a tricky situation. I love whole city this season. I've been a big fan of them. I've been putting my pom-poms up for them

36:37this season. I hope they can correct some of these issues. And the best position to be into correct issues is when you're winning games. So they're doing well, but they need to pay attention to the fact that it's not as good as it appears on paper because from a long-term perspective, and that's what a league table gives us is 38 games over the course of a season. They seem like a regression candidate in terms of the scorelines that are currently happening in those games. So I'm worried about how. I think they're coming up against a Chelsea team who have one of the hottest attacks in the league so far this season. Obviously, they came unstuck a bit against Arsenal, but again, Arsenal are the best defense in the league as much as how the only team that hasn't conceded. I'm still confidently able to say Arsenal are the best defense in the league in the Premier League. Arguably, the best defense in European football, with the structure they play.

37:38So for how the underlying numbers are telling me they are due to get a hiding very, very soon. And I think Chelsea are going to step up to back on this one and be able to knock it out of the park in terms of being able to go at home against a house side who are giving away chances. Chelsea will be able to finish off those chances. This is a game where I see Chelsea going and winning this one, 2-0. I was potentially feeling bullish and saying 3-0, but I've got a soft spot for how I don't know if I can go all the way to 3-0. So I had to temper it down a little bit. I'm going to go with the 2-0 Chelsea win in this one. And as I said, I think it is a hopefully an awakening for how I'm sure they're pretty aware of the underlying numbers for their games and they are looking to correct it. But I do think this is the game where it's going to showcase the actual issues. And then I wouldn't be surprised when mainstream media starts talking about, well, actually, has their defense been good and they start looking at the numbers? At the moment,

38:41that's not the story, right? The story is, oh, this team that's been promoted and they are third in the league table. Let's run with that. Let's talk all of the positives around HAL. We're not going to dig too far, too deep, because obviously we don't want to put a wet blanket on that. But on this show, we kind of have to put that wet blanket. Otherwise, we feel like we're not giving you guys the full story. So if you guys feel this game is going to go any different, do let me know. But from my perspective, I think this is one that Chelsea go on and rely on that attacking output. They're not going to be troubled too much from a defensive perspective. As I mentioned, HAL haven't been that great going forward and their strikers haven't been that clinical from an attacking perspective. Chelsea just need to not lose this game. That makes sense. No enforced errors. And then I think the attacking side of Chelsea will be able to take over this game and see it through. And again, it then puts pressure on a man's city that's playing later on

39:44in a Manchester Derby. It potentially puts pressure on an Arsenal. That's playing later on that day. Although Arsenal, I don't think we'll be feeling pressure at this point in the season. But again, psychologically, you want to keep building that momentum as Chelsea, especially with a new manager coming in in Javi Alonso. So a two-no win for Chelsea there, I think that makes it comfortable, very strong start to the season for them. Whether or not these new, these next teams, I can say, I've had a comfortable start to the season. I don't know. And obviously, you are listening to a tad predictable. We are discussing all the games in Gameweek 4 of the Premier League. We move on to Crystal Palace versus Ipswich, another one of those Saturday 3 p.m. games, of course. Crystal Palace is an interesting one. I'm not hot on Crystal Palace this season. I've been honest on that. I think that transfer window wasn't great. I think they've got issues from a cultural perspective within the squad at this present point in time. And then they go and pull off

40:46that comeback win against Fulham. And you're thinking, hang on, can they resurrect this season that seems to have started quite poorly from my perspective, both on and off the pitch? And then you're coming up against a promoted team in Ipswich who have flashy players going forward. They've set a really good foundational base in midfield in terms of the signings they've made. Ipswich on the day can, the insi-sos, the fataues that have come in the jack-clogs, on the day they can be quite quite a handful and go on and win these games. Crystal Palace, this is a must-win game for them. Because I think Crystal Palace on danger of being in the relegation battle this season, very much a possibility of them being relegated if they're not careful this season. I just don't think the vibes are really good at Crystal Palace at this present point in time. And the best way to quell those type of things is to pick up points away to a Fulham,

41:47then go and build on that and get back to back wins and pick up points at home and get a promoted team. And you start to then build that momentum and move in the right direction. They've got a great manager that's come in. So I'm curious to see how this game plays out from that perspective. In terms of score predictions, I'm kind of leaning towards my overall league standing in terms of where I have Crystal Palace this season. It's not like I have Ipswich any much higher than them this season, but I am worried about Crystal Palace this season. I'm going to go with the one no Ipswich upset. And I'm curious to see whether or not people agree with me in terms of that score line. But as I said, I just don't feel confident in Crystal Palace this season. I think obviously what the injuries they have from an attacking perspective, the firepower is still to come back into this team. And I think Ipswich have built a good foundation

42:52from a defensive perspective, not a great foundation, but a good enough foundation for a promoted team. I think Gary O'Neill, these are his speciality games where they're going to be able to be resolute defensively and rely on one of these purple patch, sparky, wide players, attacking players to to come up with with with the moment of brilliance to get them a goal in this game. I'm going to go with an Ipswich one, they'll calling it a Gary O'Neill special. Right, let's move on to the next game. It was of course my team Liverpool. They will be entertaining full in a three o'clock British standard time on Saturday. We're starting to see a bit more of what Iriola football is going to look like for Liverpool. There are still a lot of elements of slot in this team. There are still moments where Liverpool get the ball and they take way too many touches on the ball and they slow

43:54play down and you can see the agony in Iroles face trying to usher them forward, trying to get them to play a quick football. We saw how happy he was with both of Cody Gackbos assists last time out in the Premier League because of how quickly he looked to play the ball forward and you could you could see him on the touch. Yes, Gackbos, yes, Gackbos. Like you can see that's the type of football I want to play. You also saw midweek in their Champions League game. He admitted he got the tactics wrong to start off what but they corrected them. I think that's very important for Liverpool side where you're going to get games where tactically maybe you messed up a bit. Can you fix it live in game and go on to allow your team to look better and start to play better and go on and win games. That's important for them. I think it's also important for the young players. If you go back and watch the game, he was discussing tactics with his assistant. When they're done discussing those

44:58tactics, he then rips the paper out of his pad that he's using and he passes it back towards some of the younger players on the bench and he's telling them, watch the game, watch what we've seen. This is how we're correcting it. He's trying to involve these young players and get them also thinking about the game. Whilst sitting on the bench, you also have to be thinking about the game and then how you can go and impact it. I think these are all positive things. I think Florian Vert is playing well this season. Yes, he might not have the goals and assists yet. But if you look at the chances that he's been creating, the growth that he's shown from a team-controlling perspective, I think it's boating well. Isak, obviously, is starting to get goals in the back of the net, which is what Liverpool ultimately paid for all that money for. It's starting to come together from an attacking perspective. We saw Bradley Barcola mid-week. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets quite a few minutes in this game as well just to start to build

46:02him up. Cody Gapbo missed the game with injury. He could potentially miss this one, but should be fine. For the game, again, a player that started this season off really hard. So I'm looking at that Liverpool side. I'm expecting a win in this one. Then you look at the full-arm side of things. It's frustrating if you're full-arm because you've gone into a situation last week where you've got the league lead. You're trying to see a game out against Crystal Palace. They just went flat. This was the concern that I had with full-arm. Obviously, three games in, three defeats. They scored four goals, which is greater to get to them this season, but they've conceded seven. The frustration for me with full-arm goes back to what we were talking about when we were grading Full-arm's transfer window is they don't necessarily have, or they didn't bring in enough physicality, enough athletic players that can handle the physicality of the Premier League. They're

47:02brought in a lot of very technically gifted players, technically sound players that love to play in the triangles and quick passes and all of that, but can you be combative? Once Crystal Palace got combative in that game, Full-arm started to struggle and Full-arm lost a lot of players that I think had that physicality. Even the likes of Harry Wilson isn't afraid to get stuck in to 50-50 challenges if he needs to, even though he's an attacking player. They've lost a lot of that element. Fortunately for them, they're playing against a Liverpool side who's not necessarily the most physically gifted in terms of that midfield, but because Full-arm don't have that aspect to their game, I think it actually suits Liverpool's game to play a team that wants to be technical, because Liverpool are going to have the better technical players, and if it's a technique versus technique type of game, I think Liverpool come up on top every single time. And unfortunately, styles make fights, and this is just a fight that doesn't bowed well for a full-arm side and how

48:05the squad has been constructed. Again, it's a game away from home against a traditionally big 16, not necessarily one of the games you're expecting to pick up points in. If you get points in them, it's a bonus. They will be other games that Full-arm will expect to get points, and this isn't one of them. So, nationwide is so much more than a great insurance company. They're one of America's largest financial services companies, just like I'm so much more than quarterback Peyton Manning. I'm also Peyton Manning. Insurance and financial services together? It's a masterpiece. Peyton Manning does it again. For your insurance and financial needs, nationwide is on your side. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had

49:08opened for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online makes sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability very 16-plus. That goal probably is to keep the score respectable. Obviously, you know, when it goes into the game saying, this is our game plan to keep the score respectable, but from an outlook perspective, I think that will be what they'll be hoping for in this game. I'm starting to get a little bit more belief in Liverpool's defence with Arrajo starting to deputise as a right back there. Kirkus is still making really silly decisions. Him and Frimpong, the two least smartest defensive fullbacks in the league from my perspective. And we saw again midweek in the Champions League. Kirkus making a mistake. So I'm going to go with the 3-1 Liverpool win. I can't give them the clean sheet. I just don't feel confident in them from that perspective.

50:08Let's move on to Tottenham vs Everton, the 5-30 kickoff on Saturday, the British stand-at-time, of course. Very interesting game. There are a lot of games that I've talked about where it's must-win games very early in the season. This is prime example of a must-win game. Tottenham have to get going this season. And more importantly, Tottenham's attack has to get going this season. Another one of those teams that has struggled to score goals this season, zero goals, five conceded, same as Eston Villa, who are also on one point, who are one point above, or one position above Tottenham Tottenham currently in the relegation zone from that perspective. But there are only three teams in the Premier League that haven't scored a goal this season. Eston Villa, Tottenham and Coventry. And when you consider the attacking resources that Tottenham got heading into this season, I don't think many people would have thought that would have been their issue necessarily this season.

51:10I've talked about how I'm not really convinced with them from a defensive perspective. But from a build-up play perspective, from an attacking output perspective, they should have enough to be scoring goals three games into the season. Well, we know Everton are a tough outfit. We know David Moise can set up a very defensive team and look to play on the counter attack. The Onus is going to be on Tottenham. They are the home team. They are the team that's looking for goals. They have to be aggressive in this game. I'm starting to look at the Oma Marmousha's. You can't be missing the amount of chances. You missed last week. You've got one in one opportunities. You have to bury them. I'm looking at the Dominic Salankis who need to get some level of consistency going. And then obviously you've got the Savaos. You've got the kudos that are coming back from injuries and stuff like that. There is enough in this Tottenham team to obviously go and cause Everton issues. I'm not the biggest fan of Pickford. I think if I'm a Tottenham attacker, this is a game I'm highlighting because I know I don't have to hit

52:13the ball necessarily in the corners of the net to get the ball into the net because Pickford is one of the worst from a positional perspective in the league. Focus on getting shots on target. He's going to make a mistake at some point in time. We get our goals and we start moving. I think it's going to be an expectant Tottenham crowd. I think they are desperate to cheer for this team and they've not been allowed to for a very long time. And I'm hoping for that to say they're going to be able to in this game. From an Everton perspective, obviously very important to come back last week of the, you know, in a game that they thought they had given away against Man United. Still questions about them. They're firepower up front. TN or Barry, you want to will goals into the back of the net for him, but can he actually deliver consistently over the course of a season, time or tell? I think Tottenham obviously going to give them a few chances to go and score goals in

53:17this game because that's just who taught them off from a defensive perspective. But I just don't know if Everton have enough to go and win this game. And because of the expectations on Tottenham, the question is, are they going to be able to handle those? I think they can. I think they're going to be able to turn things around and start to play an exciting attacking brand of football. And this is a great game to start that with at home against a team that not necessarily the greatest, but they're going to be combatant. We have to give it to Everton. They might not be the best team in the league, but they're going to ask questions of you each minute of the game. And if Tottenham, I'm careful, this is a potential banana skin game, but it's also a must win game for Tottenham. I'm going with a team that has to win this game. I'm going to go with a two one, Everton. I have two one Tottenham win. I know a team that hasn't scored a goal this season. I'm not giving them two goals in the game, but I do expect

54:18their attack to start to get better and better as the season goes on. And I think they're going to be afforded chances with, as I said, Pickford. I'm not the biggest fan of him necessarily. I think he allows them to go and get some sort of rhythm from an attacking perspective. Hopefully, hopefully for Tottenham. Let's move on to Sandolin versus Arsenal. This is the eight o'clock kickoff on Saturday, so a whole host of games on Saturday coming up. For Sandolin, I think it's important for them to continue to be this resolute team. We saw them not give up in that game against Brentford. They went in and secured a point in that one. They're obviously coming off that win against Fulham. So that's two games with our loss, having recovered from what happened against Ipswich late on. So they've been competitive in games. It's whether or not they can be competitive against the best team in the league. And that's what Arsenal come into this game as.

55:21They come into this game as the most confident team in the league. They're coming off the back of London Derby where they've silenced the biggest pretenders, contenders, whatever you want to call them. For their titles this season, there's been a lot of positive talk about what Chelsea can go on and do this season and can they be the ones to challenge Arsenal and then Arsenal go and pretty much control them in that game. That is a scary thought for the rest of the league. Can a Sandolin come in and cause an upset? I think every game for Arsenal this season, if a team can win is causing an upset, I don't know. I do think that Sandolin will lean on what they've done last season and then what they've started this season on in terms of their home record, which has been confident over the last five competitive games. I think they've got an 80% home win rate. So not just draws wins at home. 80% is very, very strong. But you have to recognise

56:23who they're coming up against in Arsenal. I think obviously very controlled team, I don't see this necessarily being an Arsenal side that's going to just run the scoreboard in this one. Obviously, I think it's going to be because it's an away game. It's going to be one of those games where they control the game, try to limit the amount of errors that they could potentially make and then rely on their attacking players to go on and get the one or two goals they need to go and win this game. Obviously, huge credit to Ode to God. He started the season really, really hot. If he can continue that, I think it bodes well for Arsenal. It actually works out well because of everyone's talking about, oh, the left winger, they should assign, the striker, they should assign. Well, Ode to God steps up. I think that adds a new dynamic that they were missing last season and it could make up for maybe the issues that some people had with the signings or lack thereof from an attacking perspective. So I think Arsenal, it's a comfortable game for them. I don't see

57:26any big issues with them. I think they can handle everything that Sandolin can throw at them in this one. For Sandolin, it's okay. It's important for them to obviously have that strong campaign this season. We know they've got European football. They have to worry about this season as well. That's a factor in their games, but they haven't had to deal with that yet. They will have to deal with that next week when they play as an Okma on Wednesday. So we'll keep an eye on whether or not that affects them in their next game after that game, which is Man City. But the fact that they're playing Arsenal, then they play European football against Asad Okma, then they play Man City. I think the European game is going to take precedent over those two league games, especially from a side-keep perspective for their players. This is why I was mentioning that they could not necessarily do well this season. Because how do you focus on Arsenal? How do you focus on Man City

58:27game? Knowing you've got Asad Okma, your first game in European football at home at the stadium of Light. That's the difficulty with being in European football. Can you be able to play one game at a time and not get ahead of yourselves? I don't know if they're going to be able to do that. It bodes well for a Man City in a week's time. It bodes well for Arsenal this weekend. Because I think they can capitalize on that. But for Sunderland, that's going to cause them issues for the entire season. And it's going to make things tricky from a league perspective. But if they can have a great European run, I think that would be absolutely fun. So I'm going to go with the tune I'll ask Norwin. I think it ended up being a bit conservative. But the worry for me is the concentration levels for those Sunderland players. I wouldn't be surprised if the scoreline then goes up because of that. Let's move on to the second last game we want to talk about. It is Coventry versus Brighton. I mean Coventry, bottom of the league table, a team that hasn't scored a goal this season.

59:28But I do think they've shown some promising signs at times. They were causing Man City some issues at points in time. I don't think they've got the firepower to then go and execute from those positions. So that's the concern for me. Whereas you look at a Brighton, they've had I think 20 shots against Leeds in their last game, 2.2xg in that game. They are creating chances. They're creating chances at a rate of a top four team, which is promising for them. Defensively, obviously still some question marks. There's a lot of movement that's happened in that defensive line, whether or not they can build that chemistry this season quick enough to then go on and push and be one of those teams. I mentioned the two B teams in previous podcast episodes, the Brighton and the Brentford teams. These are the two teams that I'm looking at that are looking to head into those European spots this season if one of those traditionally big six teams,

1:00:34or a couple of those traditionally big six teams struggle this season. So I think for them, the fact that they're creating chances is good. We know Coventry are going to cause are going to allow them a lot of opportunities in front of goal. Breathe in. Now let it all out with Lincoln Rejuvenate, a multi-sensory feature available in the 2027 Navigator SUV. Experience a gentle massage, expansive visuals and digital sense to help you relax in the driver's seat. It's your time for a reset. Visit Lincoln.com to learn more. Lincoln Rejuvenate is not operating unless the vehicles in park when the vehicles offer off any doors open. Do not use the feature in a closed garage or another in closed areas. The C-owner's manual for important operating instructions. A Burst Pipe. A Dead Water Heater. The AC Calling Equits. Who do you call? Home serve is an easy way to handle unexpected home repairs. With plans covering stuff, basic homeowners insurance usually won't. Instead of scrambling for a contractor, you make one call to get the

1:01:35repair process started. Join the millions of customers who trust Home serve right now. Go to homserve.com slash podcast for 50% less your first year. That's homserve.com slash podcast. Savings compared to renewal price void in Florida. Can Coventry be conservative in this game? Can they show a defensive discipline? I don't think so. I think it's a game for Brighton to go and continue their momentum and form in terms of how they've been executing from an attacking perspective. It's a game I'm going to go with a three-nil Brighton win. For Coventry, it's starting to look pretty bleak very, very early into the season. We'll see how they're able to then handle that heading into their next run of fixtures. The last game of the weekend is going to be on Monday night at eight o'clock British Standard Time. Obviously, as I mentioned, we will be live 10 o'clock British Standard Time after this game right here on the EPL Index network. In terms of how this game shapes up, I think it's an interesting one. Leads are the form team

1:02:41taking to count how they came into the end of last season, how they started this season. As my mom always says, you always want to leave somewhere, how you want to start somewhere else. IE, you always want to do it in a good way. Leads have certainly done that in a good way. They haven't lost the game yet this season. They've got the one win, the two draws, and then you're looking at those draws and you're thinking a draw against a Brentford side who were looking very hot to start this season, a draw against a Brighton side who is looking quite hot to start this season. I think those results are fine, taking to count context, and then you went and beat in your opening game, Nottingham Forest, which is also a tough game. Leads have had a tough start to the season, and then they come up against a new castle side again on paper, a tough team, a team that is ahead of them in the league table only by position, obviously both teams sit on five points.

1:03:41This is another tough game. How are they going to be able to handle it? They seem to be handling these games relatively well. I've been very impressed with Leads and the way they've been playing this season. I think you look at their home record as well. We mentioned Sunderland's home record, how bullish they can be with that. You look at Leads's home record. They've got a 67% home win rate. Again, wins not just getting results. 67% home win rate. You look at the fact that in the last 10 games for both of these teams in Newcastle and Leads, 90% of the games both teams have scored. Again, looking at those both teams have scored if you are a betting man or woman, another game that you're potentially looking at that's going to have both teams scoring in this game. I think in terms of my predictions, I'm leaning towards both teams scoring as well. I've got this one being quite a firecracker of a game. I've got Leads winning at 32. I think in order to win this game, they're going to need to score three goals because Newcastle are going to keep coming. We saw it last

1:04:45week in their game. They're going to keep coming. The manager demands it. The fans demanded. Obviously, there's no way game. But I think that philosophy and mentality is still in Newcastle players that we're not down and out in any game. We keep fighting and we show that fight. I think that's what it's going to take for Leads to get three goals to be able to win this game because Newcastle are going to keep coming and knocking on the door and trying to stay alive in this game. I think it's going to be a fun game. We've got a couple of games that I think could be really, really fun. Obviously, the showpiece game, the Manchester Derby, my low key hipster pick for the weekend that they're born with Brentford game. This is another very exciting game. It's a Monday night game as well. It's an island game. They get to showcase their football in front of the eyes of the English Premier League fans as a whole. I think they're going to live up to their expectations. It's an evening game as well. The fans are going to be really up for it. I think it's going to be a very

1:05:46exciting game. Obviously, I think this is a good place to end the podcast. I've got to do my plugs. I've got to pay the bills. Definitely go and wrap up your epiofix at epiofindex.com for everything from match previews, postmatch breakdowns. All of the news that you guys could wish for. Also, if you are more interested in the long-form stuff, more tactical analysis, deeper dives, type of articles, then check out the epiofindex sub-stack. It's called It was always football. Then also in terms of shows that we have on the epiofindex network, we've got the two-foot-of-park cast with Dave Hendrick, where you can tune in daily. He dives ex the hottest topics in football. Sunday evenings catch the final whistle show with Nina and Ben. They recap the weekend. Obviously, we've previewed it now. Sunday evening, they're going to recap all the games that have gone on over the weekend. We've also added new shows on the epiofindex network. We've got

1:06:46gold difference with Lola and Scarlett, who are twin sisters, one's an Arsenal fan, one's a love for fan. They definitely go after each other a little bit with regards to that. It's quite a fun show. They talk about their respective teams, but then also talk about the league as a whole. Then if you want to learn about football finances and what happens behind the scenes, then listen to money talks with Mo Chattra. He dives ex everything that is many related with regards to the English Premier League. He recently had a podcast art where he was discussing the new Liverpool kit sponsorship deal and the implications that has. He also dives a bit deeper and actually gives you the more accurate figures because Liverpool are quite clever in how they phrase things. They usually will say it's more than or it's less than but they don't give exact figures whereas the journalists or some people on social media, they don't read the fine print. They'll go and say, oh, it's a 60 million deal. That's not what

1:07:49Liverpool said. They said it's more than 60 million and Mo Chattra then goes into the details of that. He is an accountant, of course. So he's able to then give you the projections of all the finances and all. It's a really, really fine show. So I do, if you want to learn more about football finances and behind the scenes in football, definitely a show that I highly recommend. Then if you want to catch up on news in the mornings, we've got news round either it's Dave Davis, it's Lola, it's Scarlett, they just sort of capture any news that happened overnight and that you might have missed. It's a nice easy listen in the mornings where you can get to hear what is happening in and around the Premier League. I think those are all the shows that we have in terms of social media. Go and follow this show on Twitter and Blue Sky at a tad predictable. Keep up with at EPL index for real-time updates. It also will then inform you whenever any of the shows are going on. Make sure that you subscribe to the EPL index YouTube channel. As I said, hit that

1:08:54bell for notifications so you don't miss a show. If you're one of our audio listeners, then subscribe to EPL index podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. Give us a fast-rating, variety positive comment. That stuff really does help us out. As I mentioned, we've got our September giveaway. If you guys want to enter that, then all you have to do is like this episode, write a comment in the chat live chat or if you're watching the show on replay, you can just leave a comment in the chat. Hopefully a positive one and your name automatically gets entered onto that wheel that we will spin on the 28th of September. We're giving away 20 pound Amazon gift voucher. Of course, we've got SBO 95 U4G. They say greetings, man United Zero, man City, one full-time score. Thank you, SBO. You've been added onto the wheel with that chance to win the 20 pound Amazon gift voucher. The one-no-score line is interesting. I mentioned the fact that these

1:09:58dobbies can be cagey and that would certainly lead to that type of score line. I'm hoping it's a more high-impact high-scoring game than that, but of course, I certainly don't rule that out. I do think that is an interesting take on that one. I have no qualms what that one. But that is going to do it for another episode of a TAD predictable. I've been to the Oceana Kira. You can find me on Twitter at TAD predicts. That's also my blue sky handle. Huge thank you to Obismania. He's at John Empire S.A. Jodie. She's at Spursy 1-4-1. Greg, he's at G-Hopcroft all on Twitter. I'll produce a behind-the-glass Mr. Guy Drinkle. He's at Guy Drinkle on Twitter. I will be back on Monday evening at 10 pm, British Standard Time after that Monday night football game that I think is going to be a fantastic game. And remember, Chisinga Perry, Chino Shura.

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