PREDICTIONS! Who Will Lead Boston Celtics Statistical Categories This Season?

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1:04Let's do some predictions here on the Lockdown Celtics Podcast, rebounds assists, and the second leading score this season. Hey, how was it going? I'm John Corales. Today's show is about prediction. I'm John Corales. Welcome back to the show. Happy Friday, everybody. And happy to have you back here for another episode of Lockdown Celtics Podcast. Today's show is all about predictions. We'll get into assists later. We'll do block shots. We'll do rebounds. We'll figure out who the team leaders are. I want to start with who the second leading score is going to be this year. And I'm going to do that with the second leading host of this podcast. That's Tom Westroom. We're number two.

2:05We're number two. Yes. What's going on, Tom? How you doing? Good. How are you? Oh, just peachy keen because we're going back to daily. We got a bunch of stuff planned for next couple of weeks. And then it's media day and then we're back. We're cooking, man. We're cooking. Back to practice. But we back. We're getting there. Before we get there. Now, let's get to our predictions. And Tom, I'm going to go on and let me say Jason Tatum is going to be the leading score for the Boston Celtics. Next season. So, who won it? I mean, if not, something either went horribly wrong or horribly right. You know, horribly right. I want something to go horribly right. What would it take for Jason Tatum to not be the leading score next? Like, in the inside, right? Like, not the, oh, he scored 12 points and then missed the rest of the season type of work.

3:05Right. You know, like, let's. I'm sitting at a wood table. I'm going to knock that knock on that. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Don't be doing that. Yeah. I don't believe in jinks. No, let's go. It's just do something to believe in. But if Jason Tatum, like, is it even, I can't even ponder. Maybe a scenario where Derek White or Peyton Purtured. Shoot 55% from three. Yeah. You have to average 30 points a game to outscore Jason Tatum. And that's just not. It's, yeah, I think the scenario. And I think it speaks to how vanishingly unlikely it is that anybody besides Tatum is the leading score. But the scenario that I would say is like most likely is, yeah, Peyton Purtured explodes. Right. Right. Or Paul George has an insane season, but plays like 20 games, you know, and so he like in 20 games he scores, you know, 29 points.

4:13Like I think it's got to be pretty. Like, you know, absolutely going off. And like, Tatum taking like a real, you know, affinity to distributing. I think, but yeah, no, Jason Tatum, really, the Celtics and scoring. So, okay, then who's going to be the second leading score is something I wrote about on Celtics on SI. I went through the whole thing. I did all the numbers. I tried to break things down, like trying to figure out where the shots come from. The Celtics take 90 shots per game. That's, that's been what they've taken under the Joe Mizzula era. Maybe they get tonight. The leading field goal attempt team last year was the main heat. They took 93 per game. So Celtics 90, maybe give them a couple more or whatever, a couple of like a few 90 is going to be the number. Tatum is going to take 20 of those. And then you got to start splitting it from there. Basically what I got down to was the next two guys as far as shot attempts are going to be probably Derek White and Peyton Purtured with Paul George behind them.

5:22So, I think the three candidates are Paul George Peyton Purtured and Derek White. Yeah. Paul George is going to play enough like he may average, he may end up averaging like 16, 17 per game. But I don't think he's going to score enough to really qualify for this. We have to do like totals, when just I say second leading score as far as total points. So I think it's going to be between Derek White and Peyton Purtured. And you know, when I boiled it down and I did all the math, I got to like a half point separating those two guys. I don't know who's going to break through. So let's go let's let's throw it over to you like considering everything considering Tatum being back in the potential for who starts and whatever. Who do you think will break through as the second leading score? Yeah, I think my pick would be Purtured. I think the biggest reason being that I think there's going to be, we've talked about staggering him and Tatum off the, like you know, when having, having him and Tatum kind of be go to like, hey, these are, you know, kind of your, your lead guy, your, your, your first offensive option.

6:40And I think, I think that the time that Purtured spends on the floor without Tatum will be a real opportunity for him to pile up some points. And then I think when Tatum's on the floor, obviously there's still the opportunity to spot up for three. There's still the opportunity to be a secondary playmaker, you know, off the balance out of the pick and roll all that stuff. I think that Derek White, I just, I don't feel comfortable enough in his shooting after last year to be like for sure. I think that the second leading score on this team, I think second leading score on this team is going to need to be able to do some self creation, right? And Peyton Pritzard is easily the second best self creation guy on this team now. So he's my pick. Yeah, I think that's a fair way to go about it. When I broke it all down, it ended up being pictured by half a point. And I think this is him coming off the bench for me, which continues to be a very contentious topic.

7:42But I still think that staggering, like starting White in having Purtured come off the bench just gives Purtured more opportunity to do what he does best. So I agree with your point about he's going to be a guy that I want him to be able to cook. And that's right. So Pritzard with Namiish Keta and I don't know which other starter or whatever, but shooting around him. I think that he's at least in the regular season shown that he can thrive in that situation. I don't know that he and White are going to get the same amount of shots. This may lead to Pritzard getting more shots. The other thing is that Pritzard, his shot diet changed a lot last year. He took a lot more two pointers. And that was like a stated goal. He didn't want to think he felt like he was settling for three pointers.

8:45And he wanted to kind of change the shot diet, which is important in this discussion because he's not so reliant on catching shoot. He's not going to be forcing things. And it keeps him from going cold or being impacted by going cold because you can still create those mid-range shots. Obviously, a bad shooting night is a bad shooting night and nothing's falling that happens. But getting into a closer area when the three point shot isn't falling and he, that 10 footer that he's developed, that's going to be something he can lean on. So I agree that Pritzard's probably the choice. But it's going to be close. I just think that he and he and White are going to be very similar. They're going to get 16, 17, 18 shots apiece. White has a chance to be the second leading scorer if he hits a bunch of shots.

9:46But you know, if he kind of returns to 39, 38% three point shooting. But I like the variety in Pritzard's game. I think there's a real chance that one or both of Pritzard and White could average 20 points a game next year. And that I think is going to be a big deal. So Tatum will average probably close to 30 if not 30. If you can get one of these other guys to average 20, I think Pritzard could do it. Then that I think will be a big help considering the loss of Jay and Brian, you've got to get those that production from somewhere. For sure. And I mean, having that guy having having Pritzard be the guy who averages that many points would open up so much else too, right? Because you know, you're talking about like that would open up more if he's scoring if he's drawing all that attention that opens things up for Derek White to actually score more as well. You know, like if yeah, that's that's great. That's a very symbiotic thing. So yeah, no, I agree with you. I think I mean, I think you look at some of those lineups around Pritzard too.

10:53Like you could put together some really good secondary units with this team with tons of shooting that will just really give him an opportunity to cook. And I think he's shown that his cooking is reliable. Right. Derek White is an awesome player. Derek White is going to do so many good things for your basketball team. Derek White is not a cook. You know, he's not a guy. You're never saying like chef Derek. You know what I mean? He's a sous chef. He's saying things out perfectly for the main chef. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So yes, I think that's a great way to put it. So we both agree, Peyton Pritzard. Now about let's go to the the bigs, the block shots, the rebounds. Or are they the bigs? Don't don't don't. Hey, look at that. Intrigue. Next. I don't know what done Southeast. The problem of finding clothes that you can live it all day, be comfortable and do whatever you need to do. Whether it's just chilling, go into meetings, playing golf, being on the move.

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12:59Monday through Friday and not only are we back to Monday through Friday. I got a bunch of special things lined up previewing the entire Eastern conference. Starting next week or all the good teams in the Eastern Conference, all the potential playoff teams. So that starts next week. Also mailbag Monday. So get your questions in at john corralis.com slash mailbag for that. I am john corralis. I cover the Celtics for sports illustrated Celtics on S.I. Been doing a version of that job for 20 years doing this podcast for more than 10. And today continuing the predictions for Celtics stats. And we're going to block shots. Tom Westerhol with the big teas. Last before the break. Do you not think do you not think that a big is going to be the block shots leader this year?

13:59That'll probably be a big but but it will be interesting because the bigs are going to be splitting time. Right. So you know, I mean, you know, per 36. That's not what we're doing here. Right. We're not doing per 36. We're doing. So who's going to get more playing time? Is it going to be Derek White or is it going to be the is it going to be Neemi like who's who's getting more? So I last year. Kada averaged 1.3 blocks per game. Last year, Derek White averaged 1.3 blocks per game. Yeah, you do the math. That's the 3.3 equals 1.3. I can do that math. That's so I think I am going to go outside the box and I'm going to pick Derek White because I think the bigs are going to split time. And I think Derek White is going to get a lot of minutes. So that's my that's my bold pick. Okay. It's not bad. It's not a bad pick.

15:01So last season Derek White blocked 98 shots. Neemi, a skater blocked 100 shots. Now, I agree that Kada and Mitchell Robinson will split that time. And so I don't know if Kada is going to block 100 shots. But here's the thing. I don't know if Derek White is going to block 98 shots next season. Because I think there's always going to be a big back there. That's fair. And I think more often than not. Of those 98 block attempts. Okay. There's a fair amount that are transition and chase down. He's going to get those. There are a few that are just straight up, you know, somebody, you know, maybe the big is on the other side of the floor.

16:02Derek White rotates over. He's going to get those. Derek White is one of the best shot blocking guards that we've ever seen. He is fantastic at it. He's going to block a lot of shots. But how many of those half court somebody gets by him or somebody gets by somebody else and Derek kind of sneaks in and blocks a shot. Where this time around. Kada is going to be back there. Mitchell Robinson is going to be back there. And a player says, you know what? I'm not going to go for that shot. Sure. I'm going to I'm going to try to back it out. Here's what I think is going to happen with Derek White. Derek White had 88 steals last year. We don't have steals on our predictions. But we can we can get to that. I suppose. I think what will happen is so many of Derek White's blocks are actually the swipe down as the player gathers. Yeah, that's true.

17:02It looks like a steal. I don't know what percentage of it, but there are a lot of them that are. He swipes down as as the guy goes up together. I think a lot of times now he's going to poke that away. And those those blocks are going to become steals. And we're going to say, oh, his blocks are down to like 75. But the steals are going to be 100. And it's going to it's going to look that way. I think he's going to make very similar plays to end up classified differently. Because one of those big long shop blockers, Kada and Robinson are going to be back there, deterring the shot attempts more often than that. So all of that is to say, I want to say Mitchell Robinson is going to block more shots.

18:02But I don't think he's going to play enough. Yeah, yeah. So I think Mitchell Robinson might average of a little bit more than Kada. But I think when you do the totals, Kada will block more shots than Robinson. So I guess it might be how you how you qualify it. I'm going to say Kada because I'm just going to go with the total blocks because. I'd rather have 76 games at 1.3 versus 45 games at 1.8. And you know what I mean? Like I think it's going to be. They'll both be very impactful. But I think it's I think it's going to be Kada overall as your block shots leader. Okay. I disagree. I think we're getting 1.5. We got ones per year.

19:02Mr. Richard White. We're getting I think. I think we're getting it. I think Derek White's got this. Okay. Okay. Rebounding. Yeah. This is going to be an interesting one because. Jason Tatum came back last year and averaged 10. And he's been he's been their best defensive rebounder. But there's offensive rebounds in there. There's a lot of other rebounds to be had. Who do you think is the leading rebounder this year? This one's so tough man. This is a tough one. I. It's so funny because I think the leading rebounder is not going to be the self-express rebounder. Right. I think Mitchell Robinson is the best rebounder on this team. You know, he's. He's the best rebounder on the offensive end obviously. But just yeah, I mean, he just gobble some up like he's. The dude averages four offensive rebounds a game at least that's crazy. Crazy.

20:02I think. I'm. I want to go to Tatum. Like I wanted. Yeah. I just the amount of playing time he's going to get the amount of. And just like he's a great rebounder. Right. Like we talked about that a lot. That was. Yeah. Um, you know, disastrous on the on the on the glass last year was that Tatum was going to be out. And he's. He grabs him like he gets a lot of rebounds per game. I. Again, I kind of want to just go with them with availability and playing time here where it's like, yeah. Okay. If Kada and Robinson are splitting time, you know, there'll be games where Kada plays, you know, 38 because Robinson was out. And so Garza, you know, like he and Garza, like, you know, just kind of did like a one to rotation there. But I don't think that's going to be enough. Yeah. I'm I'm I'm just going to not know, man. I'm going to go to him. I'm going to go. I'm going to keep following my heart. I think it's a big. The last the last time Jason Tatum did not lead the Celtics and rebounds per game was the 21-22 season.

21:04Yeah. And even and even then. Uh, it's because Robert Williams averaged 3.9 offensive rebounds per game. Tatum was still the leading defensive rebounder with 6.9. So he's really good at it, man. And he's and he claims a lot of he claims a lot of uncontested ones where he's like, yeah, I've got a max contract. You get out of here. Yeah. 100% by by. Yeah. And it's like that it's like a little bit of a like oh, it seems like a like a criticism. But actually he's like a grab and go guy. So I don't mind him. If he's the guy that's rebounding free throw misses and going, then fine. Because he can handle a ball and bring it up and initiate. So that's totally fine with me. But yes, he does he does clean up a lot of the uncontested ones. And that's that's fine. Somebody's got to it's not a problem. Somebody's got to grab it. Like yeah. Every everybody who averages 10 points, 10 rebounds a game, cleans up four or five uncontested rebounds.

22:06Yes. Let's listen. I'm not bragging or anything like that. I remember since all time leading rebounder. I've had I've had my fair share of cleaning up free throw misses and outlitting the ball and just piling up those stats. I've had plenty of those. Wait, time out really? You're ever since all time leading rebounder. Yes. Seriously? Yeah. Total rebounds. Yep. I mean, also, you should brag about that more. I have I have almost a thousand total rebounds. Yeah. That's awesome. That was awesome. That was a born man. You were a born man. I was a born man. You have a few. Huh? I did get paid. I did get paid. I got paid the play. Go. I was in it. Born man gets paid. Yeah, man. I have my I have my fair share. I think I had. I think I had like might have been six, twenty, twenty games in my career. That was out there, buddy. I was out there. You're out there. You're out there. Last buddy. Yeah. Yeah.

23:06You're out. You're out there. You're out there. You're out. Still Gangstaang. Bughead destinations. kindergarten urbstad lab outfit. Who's your band? Any other one? Remember, not youMost have any comments about everything. Some Ooooh. Everybody got it. I guess they want me back with a cru C gonna separate. Someone saying that's not true. Another part like a bipod code or whatever. But where comes back? Them, каждый. Yeah, right. remember that they are also hand invents from your band. Now all therey generations are different. That's their priority. get an app for accounting, another for inventory, another for sales, somehow none of them talk to each other. That's where Odo comes in. Odo is an all-in-one business management software that brings every part of your business together in one powerful platform from sales to accounting to inventory and marketing. Everything works in one place. Odo is one platform to manage, grow and scale your business. The best organizations know that success isn't just about talent. It's about having everyone working towards the same goal, and that's true in sports just like it is in business. You're trying to win if you can't get the whole team, all five guys, all 10 guys who play all 15 guys on the roster.

24:12You can't get them talking the same language operating at the same plane at the same level. You know what you're going to be? Bad team. You want to succeed? Everybody's going to communicate. The same goes for your systems. Great organizations win because operations matter and that's why you should get Odo. Odo is one platform to manage, grow and scale your business, try it for free at odu.com.slot.com. That's oduo.com slash locked on. Thanks for making locked on, Celtics, your first list and every day you want this show, add free. Go to lockdownseltics.supercast.com. For $5 a month, you can get this show, add free. Every day it's available on all the major platforms, all your Apple or Spotify. It's available on all of those five bucks to join the everyday club at locked on.selects.supercast.com. You also get exclusive access to our merch store and 15% off. So check that out. Lockdownseltics.supercast.com. All right, Tom, the assist leader. This is going to be a good one too because obviously Jason Tatum is going to have a lot to say about this.

25:18But also there are other players who are going to be handling the ball and will have an opportunity, especially if Peyton Pritchard is going to be coming off the bench and kind of operating that second unit. So who do you think ends up as the Celtics assist leader next season? This one's funny because it's tough only because the like this is just that this is not a traditional, you know, there's no there's no point God on this team, right? Like it's tricky. So I'm going to go Derek White again. I think the Celtics are going to need Tatum to score a lot. And I think that this season there's going to be a real emphasis for Tatum to score. Like obviously if you get to the rim and everything collapses, kick it out, but also like a lot of those kickouts end up in past passes, right? You got like a lot of times it's, you know, Shireman gets the assist because he was the guy who swung it last or whatever it is.

26:22Sure. So and I think that there will be a bit of an emphasis on like, yeah, Tatum, if you're at the rim and you got any chance at all to score like, you know, get some buckets. Yeah, put the ball in the hoop. So I'll go Derek White. I think, you know, I think I think he'll be able to say I think a big part of the Celtics potential success this year is going to be him sliding back into a role that he's comfortable with where it's it's not like last year. It's not like hey, Derek, we need you to get buckets, but it's like, no, like, you know, make your passes to like make enough passes to get 5.8 assists per year. Yeah, 5.8 assists per game this year. That would probably be enough to lead this team. So yeah, I'll go Derek White. I'm going to say it's Tatum. Okay. Listen, Derek White on the ball is going to have a fairly sizable usage, right? Yeah, yeah. Derek White, 5.4 assists last season. Jason Tatum, only 16 games, but 5.3, Peyton Pritchard, 5.2, Jalen had 5.1.

27:28There's a lot of kind of the ball movement. If it's the way it's supposed to be, a lot of guys are going to get 4 and 5 and 6 assists. You're not you're right. You're not going to see a lot of 10, 11, 12 assists, but Tatum's going to have the ball in his hands a lot. I think the the lob threat being consistent is going to be a big part of. Yeah, that's a good call. So I think I think he can get two or three assists a game just from dump offs, lobs to Mitch into Keta. So it doesn't even matter who he plays with most. They're they're equally going to be available for those. I think we're going to see a lot of that. And that's going to lead to some of the spot ups. I think Derek White's going to be more open, more catching shoots. He's going to shoot him at a better percentage. Obviously, you need the makes to get the assists.

28:33And then we just talk about the rebounds. Very Joe Mizzoula Pilled phrase. And we just talk about the rebounds that grab and go. If if the Celtics are, I think they can be the best rebounding team in the league because the you got Robinson, you got Keta, you got Tatum, and you've got the the other guys kind of swooping in and. So, yeah. Yeah. Bailer is not a slouch. Yeah, yeah. Bailer and March was incredible rebounding. He figured out a rebounding thing. Peyton is a sneaky good corner, Crusher. Derek White is a great corner, Crusher. So I think the Celtics can be the best the best rebounding team in the league and defensive rebounding like we said with Tatum. Tatum will have a few assists here and there of just grabbing a rebounds. And then he can make some links out and he can hit hit that kick ahead and that leads to a shot.

29:36So I think Tatum can average close to if not seven assists this season. I think Tatum's going to end the season as the Celtics leading score, rebounder and a cis guy and listen. Yeah in the season leading score you're up around 30 if you're the leading rebounder you're up around you know eight or nine leading assist guy seven Celtics win enough games Listen You're talking about you're talking about something that started with him and N. T. Mop Mop Most approved is what I'm saying that Tatum last year Tatum last year barely played It's yeah, he plays a lot this year. It's how can he not be the most improved how could he not be the most improved? Um, I think this Celtics defense is gonna be like the defense from a couple years ago where They're not gonna be I don't think they're gonna get a ton of steals. I don't think they're gonna turn teams over a ton

30:39I see them as a very heavy Contest shots. They will lead the league my prediction is you want to talk about leading something the Celtics will lead the league in contested shots next season and Because they've got the rebounding there. I don't think don't foul Don't go crazy don't put them at the line. Just contest the shots make them difficult Take that percentage down a little bit. Let's clear those rebounds and go don't need to go crazy for steals Don't need to go crazy for anything. It just contest the shots and rebound and go That I think is gonna allow Tatum to get a couple more rebound He I can see him. I don't know about 30 back. I can see 28 28 10 and 7 As as Tatum's finishing numbers next year. I think he can easily put those up and yeah that that if the Celtics are top Three team great. Yeah, you know like that Obviously it depends on like the singular great performances that yokech and shea and

31:42Bluka and all these other guys yannis maybe you always forget wembee, which is very funny to me Wembee. Yes. Yes. Sorry. Oh, they do always forget wembee Which is stupid is a very stupid thing For me to forget but there it is But Tatum Tatum could be in the mix. Yeah, so for sure But yeah, so I think Tatum leads in in all three major categories, so Okay All right, well good Friday show Tom. Yeah Wembee, yama I gotta write that down. I think that kid's gonna be some I think you should remember his name I'm I'm known for my prospect works, so I'll tell you I think Victor Wembee I'm the guy to keep an eye on yeah, I'll see you in some easily forgettable, but I'll forgetable But I don't I won't let you forget I'll take my victory lap this since for calling it when he's when he's good Si Tom thanks appreciate you I appreciate you Tom and I appreciate everybody

32:44I don't know why I keep doing that, but thanks everybody for listening. Thanks everybody for watching again next week Monday through Friday five days a week Mondays a mailbag Monday get your questions in john corrales.com slash mailbag Then Tuesday through Friday unless something happens, which I doubt We'll start previewing the other teams in the east. I've done crossover interviews already with all like the pistons and nicks and Sixers and we'll talk to these other hosts to get To know these other teams as we get into training camp. So that's all next week. Make sure you're subscribed Make sure you're watching the show get into the comments section share your thoughts Who do you think will lead the Celtics in all of these categories and then share the podcast tell everybody They should be listening to and watching the lockdown Celtics podcast here in the lockdown podcast network. It's your team every day Thank you for making locked on your first listen every day For your second listen find the locked on NBA podcast where there's no offseason West mat and haze keep you up to date on contract negotiations

33:47Rumors and everything you need to be the most informed NBA band Find locked on NBA on youtube or wherever you listen to podcasts part of the locked on podcasts network your team every day