PREDICTION: Will Indianapolis Colts Defend HOME TURF vs. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens?

0:00This is the Lockdown Podcast Network celebrating 10 years of your team every day. Hey, Drake May here. As a pro quarterback, I know I can't do it alone. I have to trust my team, and that goes for my money too, which is why I use Betterment, the trusted investing and savings platform. They're automated investing tools always have my back, just like my old line. Over a million people already trust Betterment to build their wealth. So I know I'm in good company. Start building yours at Betterment.com or download the app. Investing involves risk. Performance not guaranteed. Paid client ad views may not be representative. See App Store and Google Play reviews. Learn more at Betterment.com slash ambassadors. The Indian Apple's Colts host the Baltimore Ravens in week one of the 2026 season. Can they start the season on a high note? Let's get to it. You are locked on Colts. Your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Your team every day.

1:06Welcome to Lockdown Colts. I'm Zach Hicks. That's Jake Arthur. And today's episode is brought to you by Fandall. I'm going to give you a five-fandall. Get $350 in bonus bets guaranteed when you bet $5 every day for seven days. Join all the action at Fandall.com. On today's show, we're going to preview the Colts and Ravens for a final time. It feels like we've been talking about this matchup for months now at this point. The season is finally here on Sunday. We are excited to get all the speculation out the window. Both these teams are pretty healthy as well, which is great. We're going to see the full strength of the two teams that are looking to push for a playoff spot this year. Just exactly what you're looking for in week one of the 2026 season. So we're going to talk about the offense, talk about the defense, and then talk about our final predictions and just notes we have before this big game on Sunday. But we do have a couple of injury updates here as well for the Colts. They have just one injury designation, which is a linebacker Austin Adjike.

2:07He heard his hamstring either after the Thursday practice or in between Thursday and Friday because you did not practice on Friday with that hamstring injury. So he is questionable as of right now. We'll see if he's able to go on Sunday. And then for the Baltimore Ravens two players who are out with injury last season are injuries from this past season that are affecting this game defense tackle. Nandi Mattabique Mattabique Zasez name Jake. I said Mattabique Mattabique Mattabique former pro baller outstanding player. Missed most of last season. I believe with with this injury. So he is still ramping up and recovering. Had a full practices. I think it points this week as well. So he will be getting out there soon for them. Just not in this week one game against the Indianapolis Colts. And then linebacker Teddy Buchanan who was a rookie last season who started a lot of games for them. So two key players not playing in this game for the Ravens, but overall both these teams are pretty healthy and it's healthy as you get for an NFL game. So let's talk about this Colts offense though Jake. I'll throw it to you first. What are your kind of overall thoughts and feelings about the Colts offense going to this week one game.

3:11And I guess with more players than we expected on offense, right. If you would have asked us back in April, you know, would they've had their quarterback. Would they've had, you know, out pierced for this game. All these guys are good to go now for the Colts and should be a good one. Yeah, normally gives you a little bit of pause when you think about basing a Baltimore Ravens defense, but number one they're coming off not a good year last year. And now they've got a whole new coaching staff for the first time first time since 2008. There is a new coaching staff in Baltimore for the first time since I graduated high school. So that should tell you all you need to know. So yeah, the Colts face both of their defensive minds last year with the dolphins and the chargers in those games, the Colts averaged over 400 yards of offense and about 35 and a half points per game. So Shane Stuykin knows how to attack this scheme. I think, personally wise, Baltimore's probably got a little more talent than the chargers did. And then of course Kyle Hamilton is kind of a force multiplier. He's a freak.

4:16You know, they're working in tray Hendrix and that was well. They've got some talented guys there, but it's an old defense as well. Zach some big time veterans guys around or north of 30 years old. So luckily for the Colts, they've got a lot of offensive continuity. So mixed with the fact that this group's already been together, they have Daniel Jones back, John and the Taylor still playing out of his mind. There's really very little turnover with the offensive line. I mean, Jaylen Travis started the last four games last year. I really like the offensive chances in this one. I just think strategically and talent wise, they might have the advantage. Yeah, I think for me, the biggest numbers to look at is when you look at the Chargers defense. And again, it's not a one to one comparison, but it is the same guy calling the plays on that side of the ball. So there are some similarities and things that Jesse mentor likes to do. The Chargers last year, they were the second highest zone rate in the NFL, all among all NFL teams last year, only behind the Carolina Panthers. I believe they're also top three in split safety looks. So two high safety.

5:24They like to be in their quarters coverage as much as possible. They're going to be in that quarters defense. And what we saw the Colts do in that matchup against them was just pepper the flats. As much as possible. If you want to drop your quarters guys back and prevent explosives, that's fine. We're just going to keep getting the ball to Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman Jr. And Josh Downs in the flats and let them create after the catch. And that's how the Colts were able to put up all those points and yards against mentor last season. Now, I don't expect that to be the exact same thing this year. If I were the Ravens defense, I would go into this game saying, Hey, their quarterbacks coming off into kill his injury, their wide receiver one is coming off of ankle surgery. So we are going to test them. We are going to blitz the crap out of them. And we're going to place some man coverage and really see what these guys are about. And we're going to make them beat us through the air rather than letting John Fenthaler do his thing. So I do expect in like the first quarter for this Ravens defense to come out pretty aggressive, you know, try to set the tone early in this one.

6:25But if the Colts can answer the bell and they can get some points on the board on the first drive or hit a deep shot early, I do think that can back the Ravens up into that quarter's defense that we saw Shane Steakon really exploit last year. So I think they have the recipe to put up big point total in this game. Now it is week one is going to be sloppy. There's going to be some some gross football being played. We saw in the first two games of the year. Offensive football is at a disadvantage when it comes to week one, most times, especially when there are continuity issues. I mean, we saw some of the best offenses from last year trying to do it in the first two games and they are all struggling in them. So it will be a bit of a sloppy performance for sure. But I think for the Colts come out fast, get some points on the board early, get them back into that quarters coverage that they like to do. And then Shane Siking can go to work just peppering the flats, getting it to war and getting it down and letting those guys go to work. So they have the blueprint for how to attack this defense. Jesse Menter is certainly going to try to bring some new things in this one. But I do like the Colts chances and I do like that their chances of getting the ball away from Kyle Hamilton because we saw them do it against Irwin James last year where they really did their best to get that ball away from James and attack.

7:38The opposite side of the field more often not put that nickel corner in conflict more so than that strong safety coming down to the box. And then when when Kyle Hamilton comes down to play some nickel, then they'll go away from the nickel and go after the strong safety. So there are ways to really exploit that if you're the Colts. But I do think that they have the ingredients to put up some big points in this game. It just comes down to how they look early against the Blitz and against aggressiveness from the Ravens defense. Yeah, I think Kyle Hamilton will probably have to have his sights that on Tyler Warren for a good, a good chunk of time. And then luckily for the Colts, Warren is far from their only option that passes. So I think if you could just use Warren as a decoy or whatever you want to do to keep Hamilton out of the mix. I think that would certainly be wise. And then to your point with Baltimore's defense and Jesse Miner coming out trying to be aggressive. Probably like I do think you would want to test the Colts back field with Daniel Jones a bit. But that's what you plan on doing early in a game as the rigors of a game go on, you kind of just resort to what you are in your DNA.

8:44And that is what Shane Stuykin is very familiar with and knows how to attack. So I think you're exactly right in that regard. I think a couple of things I'm interested to see. So we know about past the score run to win. Are they going to be able to follow that recipe and how much do other running backs not named John the Taylor get involved like do we see five plus touches for Seth McGowan. Very interested to see how that goes. And then just I guess how they divvy up thing situationally in the receiver core. Ashton Dullin on early downs when it's more of run situations, 12 personnel, like Josh Downs versus Keenan Allen who gets what, you know, what reps there and what situation. So. And then like you said with Alec Pierce covering him and man has never been a wise idea because he could be anyone. But if you're Baltimore, you have to see like if you need to put Marlon Humphrey out there and get physical with him and try and mug him up a little bit like I think you have to do that just to see what it's going to be like.

9:51Now that may result in a shot over the top. But yeah, like I think you have to get physical with him. He's not in football shape yet. So I think that probably would be wise on Baltimore's part to do that. Yeah, no for sure. And then one more thing I want to throw out there is just the match up between Jalen Travis and those edge rushers. How does he look in his first start of this season after getting a whole off season preparing as a starter. Does it look like a total disaster, especially the put Terry Hendrickson over him or as he showed that he is a capable player that will be a huge match up for this cold team because you know when we talk about that chargers game from last year. The chargers didn't really have a healthy edge rusher. That was a game record in that one. Cherry Hendrickson is a game record when he is healthy and that can be the difference between putting up 38 points and almost 500 yards of offense and having a dud of under 20 points and under 300 yards of offense. So that is something that to really watch in this game for the Colts coming up. We're going to talk about the Colts defense and how they have to corral two of the best players in the league in the March Jackson and Derek Henry.

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13:13And we're ready locked on Colts every day or is before we get back to talk about the Colts defense versus the Baltimore Ravens offense don't forget to check out the every day or club for ad free episodes and access to a group chat with other listeners of this show me and Jake tap the link in the show notes or go to lock down Colts dot super cast dot com. So when we look at the Colts defense for this game obviously the big thing that we're circling is just the matchup with Lamar Jackson the matchup with Derek Henry now I fully expect the Colts to play a good amount of base defense in this game where they're going to have their five man front their three defense of tackles along with two defensive ends in there to really counter this rushing attack that we're going to see from the Ravens the Ravens are probably going to run a lot of 12 and 13 personnel so they can get downhill with that running game with Derek Henry. My only fear with that is when you bring that extra defense attack in there are you actually going to be better against the run because I think you and I know who that extra defensive tackles going to be so that's my big fear I don't was rather just play nickel at that point because I feel like you're getting better defenders on the field I don't want to take off Justin Wally for Jerry Taylor and think I'm getting better against the run in that regard but aside from that I do think the Colts defense does have some good things in place here I think they have the advantage in the secondary versus these past.

14:30I think we're going to be catching weapons that we see against the Ravens having Saw Scardiner and Mooney Ward and Justin Wally against Zay Flowers and Company at White receiver Mark Andrews is still a fine player but he's not you know if this was 2020 Mark Andrews it would be a different story right now they don't have Isaiah likely anymore no Charlie Kohler anymore two guys who are very vital with their running game the last couple of years so I do like how the Colts match up and I think I like the idea of running more base defense in this matchup. It's just who you're bringing on the field for your base defense does terrify me a little bit now not trying to make this all about portillery here but you guys need to understand why I'm concerned about this you know. Yeah I think so I think that's the whole key of it too is so teams really like to blitz Lamar he's a very highly blitzed quarterback but in order to get to that you have to get through Derek Henry first you have to set yourself up. In third and in longer situations third and sixth third and seven so on and so forth.

15:33And I just man. I think like right now at least they're linebackers might be better prepared to stop the run than they are defend the past because they like they're not up to speed yet with like CJ Allen being 100% you know matching his physical reps with his mental reps yet. Bryce Batcher it looks like he's actually going to be more of a reserve but like Jaylen Carlisle and I came Davis Gator they're probably better run defenders at this point. Just oh man I think there certainly is a better run defender Carlisle I probably say is better past defender than run defender or yeah I mean you got to avoid the situation you have last year with having just to run defending linebackers who missed a lot of tackles. But yeah it's it's just the elephant in the room it's yeah they have to they have to limit Derek Henry somewhat so that they can get to the point where you know Lou Anorima wants to play like that four man pass rush is probably not going to be super fruitful this year.

16:36So in order for them to get sacks and get 40 plus on the year they're probably going to have to have a pretty good success rate of blitzes. You know can't buy them is probably going to get sent several times you're probably going to see Davis Gator or Carlisle sent several times. Yeah that's just it's the main objective when you look at Baltimore's defense you can almost see nothing else beyond stop there can re first and foremost and then. Force Lamar Jackson in the air and quick decisions because you know you know what I've said about the cold secondary like I think if you can get these quarterbacks you know throwing high over the middle or just making decisions they want back you've got two safeties that can make them pay at any time and like can buy them is so good at coming down with those overthrow balls and everything you know like that I feel like that's most of his interceptions you throw a ball high over the middle of the field and he's coming down with it. So I think if you could force a turnover or two against Lamar like a fumble and a pick because he doesn't throw a lot of picks then I think you put yourself in such a good advantage in this game.

17:45Yeah I mean turnovers are always huge in the NFL especially in a matchup like this where I think two teams are pretty evenly matched especially early in the season but yeah ultimately I don't really feel too much concern for the cold stopping the pass in this game because I do think that they're pretty well equipped for it. I think if they get the Ravens forced back into passing situations or must pass situations we're going to see them creep up six guys to the line of scrimmage. They're going to be very diverse with which guys that are blitzing and they're going to have a spy on it and I think they're going to be able to win on the outside with their corner. So I'm not too concerned there. My biggest concern though is the run defense. It is just when if they want to put artillery out there for more than like a snap I think that's going to be concerning. I think these two linebackers are good when kept clean but you have to keep them clean and if the Ravens are going to roll out here with 12 and 13 personnel they're going to do everything they can to get bodies on those linebackers in these power run situations these gap run situations. So how well do those linebackers combat physicality that's something that I have big concerns about so I like the way this defense matches up against the past I think that they can be really unique what they're blitzing although.

18:54Again I'm not someone who to have the guts to blitz the March accent as much as some of these these guys do just because. With a guy with his speed if you miss one tackle he's gone and explosives are the name of the game nowadays but aside from that. I do think like they have the things to match up pretty well against the passing game but the running game I am concerned about they are going to be very reliant on Grover Stewart into force Buckner wrecking hell in this one like against a guy who's never started center in the NFL. In his NFL career in Joe Vaughn Gwyn against a rookie left guard although he's highly drafted and highly touted rookie left guards still a rookie going out there the right guard Simpson's not not like the greatest player either like I do think the Colts have an advantage with Buckner and Grover Stewart but if those guys aren't playing at like the top level of their game I do think this run defense is going to be a pretty big concern and don't even get me started on the plays where like lot's use out of the game or the place where where he is out of the game or. I mean God forbid Grover Stewart comes and sits out for one play those might be really disastrous plays for the Colts defense and run in run defense so hopefully they can set the tone early get a couple big run steps early in the game set that tone that hey maybe running on us will be that easy and kind of get the Ravens being a little bit more one dimensional trying to throw the football because if they're allowing like six yards a pop to Derek Henry.

20:14It lets everything be so much easier for Lamar Jackson and company so I think they have the ingredients like I said on the first part about the offense as well it's just I am a little bit more concerned about the run defense anything else in this game. I do think the detacles versus that an experienced interior line is going to be huge I think especially Grover with his power and then Tommy without twitchy he is you're going from two extremes there like that's it's going to be I think pretty hard to handle not a lot of team. Not a lot of teams have that that change up that they can throw at an interior line. Yeah and coming up Jake and I are going to go into our final predictions final guesses for like certain players and standout performances all that in our final segment to break down this Colts Ravens game for final time before someday. Matt Dairy here from the Lockdown Lions podcast you know life insurance is one of those things you don't really think about until you have a reason to for me really hit home and my father passed away over 20 years ago you start thinking less about the game. You start thinking less about yourself and more about the people who depend on you making sure they're taking care of no matter what that's why I like ethos they make getting life insurance simple it's 100% online no doctor visits no needles none of that you can get a quote in seconds applying just a few minutes and even get same day coverage and honestly that's huge because life gets busy you can get up to $3 million in coverage and some plans or as low as just $30 a month it's just one of those things that gives you peace of mind knowing your family.

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22:56Down with the game time app create account and use code a locked on for $20 off of your first purchase turns apply again create an account and use code locked on for $20 dollars off. Already locked on colds every day as we are back for a final time today talking colds talking Ravens we talked about the colds offense versus the Ravens defense in the first segment how again they kind of have all the things they need against Jesse mentors defense to find success and then I poured some some cold water on the colds defense a little bit with a run defense against Eric Henry I'm not super pessimistic but I am a little pessimistic about that but let's go to our final thoughts in predictions Jake I think I'm going to go on a limb and say you're pretty optimistic because you usually are where last year I had the running bit where I picked against the colds every single week and it worked for the first half of the year until then it became a self-fulfilling prophecy I guess in the second half of the season but let's go to you with the optimism first Jake what do you think is the best way to do it? What do you think in week one here are we starting off the season on a good track or is it going to be misery from start to finish?

24:01I like the colds in this one I just think again unless there's like a just a total breakdown like there was against the Steelers last year the colds know how to attack this defense I don't think because again it's Jesse Menter and Anthony Weaver both like they chain has such a great track record against both of them. I don't think they're going to magically throw some defense together that he hasn't seen I think eventually whatever cuteness they have lined up first will wear off as the game goes on and they're going to go to what's in their DNA. I think that's the point if Shane hasn't already figured them out early I think he ultimately will Daniel Jones being back is huge his chemistry with Shane as a play call play collar I think means the world. When you've got a quarterback who I don't think Daniels physically limited but he is coming back from and Achilles and we haven't seen him truly under pressure from a defense yet.

25:04I think being a cerebral player and having chemistry with your play collar makes a big difference I think that's huge Jonathan Taylor not every team has a Jonathan Taylor and then just you know in the passing game you kind of have to pick your poison if you're Baltimore and again it's an older defense I just don't think that they match up super well with the colds pass catchers Tyler Warren Alec Pierce even Keenan Allen that's a guy that still gets open is explosive nobody gets open he converts third down. Josh Downs obviously very shifty I just like the Colts in this one the big thing to me is whether or not Derek Henry gets really out and rolling logically Lamar Jackson is probably not a guy that's going to run a million times game anymore I think he's probably at some point going to settle into like being much more of a passer than he is a runner he'll still run and pick up first downs and things but I think as long as you can make sure that 32 year old Derek Henry isn't absolutely wrecking you you'll be able to handle whatever Lamar is doing you know what I mean because we know Lou wants to play we know he wants to get after him that's what some teams have had success doing against him and I mean the Colts have a very aggressive defensive coordinator when he spells blood in the water so I like the cold secondary ability to create turn up the game.

26:31And I'm not going to be trying to burn overs I know Moodie and Soss aren't really big interception guys with their big pass break up guys. Bino and Halsey are big take away guys so I'm sensing a couple big plays by the Colts back seven and then offensively I think they'll be just fine. So what did you have score prediction wise do you have a score prediction? Yeah I don't think it's going to be like a route or anything but I do like 24 to 20 Colts keeps coming to me. It could be something where like Baltimore gets to their 20 later in the game or whatever, but I just really like the Colts in this one. Yeah, I think I had 23 20 Colts. So I'm right on the same track with that. I just had to be a feel goal game late and we'll see if the Colts defense can hold. But yeah, even for me being the ever so pessimistic one on this podcast compared to you, I do think the Colts match up well in this game. I think these are two fairly even teams. I think it's going to be mostly like a coin flip level game like unlike you where you think the Ravens might get to that 20 late.

27:33I think it'll be a back and forth game that the Colts ultimately pull off in the end. I am a little bit concerned obviously about the run defense and just again containing Lamar Jackson just because he's a he's a force multiplier. Right. He's a guy who can who can open a game up with with his ability. But when I look at just the continuity that the Colts have like returning 9 of 11 offensive starters. And then even on defense, they're just healthy again because they weren't healthy on defense for like a majority of last season. Getting healthy out there. I do think that's going to be something that pushes the Colts slightly over the edge in this game. I will put one prediction out there and I'll get your quick reaction to it to Jay because I I'm going to throw us out there knowing that it's going to infuriate some Colts fans. I think the Colts are going to come out throwing the ball quite a bit on Sunday. I think like we know was Shane's like in a throw to win and run or throw to score run to win. Right. So he likes to throw early in the game. But I think when you are playing against a team like the Ravens who probably want to test Daniel Jones early and they want to test that a kill. So they're going to just gear up to stop the run a lot of base defense to stop that run early.

28:36We might see like 10 straight passes from the Colts to start the game. And I know Colts fans are going to be pissed like get the ball of Jonathan Taylor. What are we doing, especially if they have the pun on one of those. But I do think we're going to see some throwing early just to show the faith in Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce and get the ball rolling. And to me, I think that could lead to some early success for this Colts offense. And in a game like this, again, week one, if you can get some points on the board early when you know sloppy play is going to follow that for both teams. I think that can be the difference maker. So I have the Colts by three. I wouldn't be shocked at the Ravens one just because again, I really do think this is a coin flip. Maybe by the end of the season, the Ravens really hit their stride. They're favored anyways. Yeah, the Ravens by the end of the year, I think are going to be a really good team. But I just think early on with like you said, they haven't had a new head coach in so long at this point, almost 20 years since they've had a new head coach. Along with like just disrupting a lot of the continuity. Lamar Jackson didn't play in the preseason with the new offensive staff and new offensive coordinator as well.

29:36So he doesn't even know what live game looks like yet with this new guy. He's still Lamar Jackson, like he's still great. I expected to be a little bit slower for the Ravens and that might be just enough for the Colts. So yeah, I have them winning by three in this one. I think it's going to be a very close game and excited to see what comes here on Sunday. Yeah, so we always like to try and end with some bold predictions. Let's get one in real quick. It's not bold for me to say AJ Hall sees going to have an interception, even though I feel good about that. I'm going to have to do it in house call on kicker. Turn. How'd that be awesome? I like it. Let's say I should do in house call. All right, I'll go with Josh Downs is the leading receiver in the game. I think just throwing away from Hamilton. They're going to use Hamilton to take away Warren. Peers will get a couple of shots here and there, but I think Downs being the guy on the other side of the field. I think leads the entire game and receiving yards and catches in this game will be mine. Let us know in the comment section below what you think score prediction, bold predictions. Let us know in the comment section.

30:36Thank you guys for making Lockdown Cult your first listen today and every day. Now in video, we send you the first ever 24 seven YouTube channel on the NFL and on audio. Check out locked on fantasy football with fabs and markets for your second listen. If you don't already, make sure you're following at Lockdown Colts at Jake Arthur and felon at Zakkicks to all on socials. If you never missed an episode, the everyday club is built for you. Get us ad free plus members only discord access and much more. Head to lockdown cults.supercats.com to join the club. Thank you all for tuning in. We back here Sunday afternoon after the game for our first post game squad show of the season. Spend less time searching a more time actually interviewing candidate to check all your boxes with less stress less time and more results. When you need the right person to cut through the chaos, this is a job for indeed sponsor jobs and listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsor job credit. Tell get your job. The premium status it deserves indeed.com slash podcast. Just go to indie.com slash podcast right now and support our show by saying you heard about indeed on this podcast.

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