Pepe Escobar : Iran’s New Leader and a Changing Oil Order

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1:03Undeclared wars are commonplace. Pragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression with no complaints from the American people. Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected. What if sometimes, to love your country, you had to alter or abolish the government? What if Jefferson was right? What if that government is best which governs least? What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish fighting for freedom than to live as a slave? What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now? Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for a Judging Freedom.

2:06Today is Wednesday, March 11th, 2026. Pepe Escobar will be here with us in just a moment on Iran, oil, China, Russia, and bricks. How all of this is connected. But first this. Don't you just cringe when people say, I told you so, sorry, I told you gold and silver would reap the benefits due to excessive money printing inflation and global uncertainty. It's here. It's happened. Gold and silver reached all time highs. Did you call Lear Capital and buy some? It's not too late. Experts are predicting higher prices ahead. Why? Nothing has changed. Geopolitical chaos, cost of living crises and a weaker dollar are driving central banks to boost their gold reserves. Orcas suggests gold could hit $6,000 an ounce and silver $200 an ounce. Even Morgan Stanley ditched the 6040 rule for 60, 2020 putting 20% into precious metals.

3:12They're getting educated and you should too. Call the best in the business and the people I trust, Lear Capital. Get their reports, get the facts, get some gold and silver. Tell them the judge sent you and get up to $20,000 and bonus gold or silver. Call 81511-4620 or go to learjudsnap.com. Pepe, ask your bar welcome here my dear friend. Thank you as always. I know you're on the other side of the world, but thank you for accommodating my schedule. Before we get to Iran, oil, China, India, bricks, the latest news this morning, Demetri Peshkov, whom you know, has accused the United Kingdom of facilitating a missile strike on a Russian munitions factory in Briance, which is 200 miles inside of Russia and killing 6 civilians. Where is this going to go?

4:13How could President Putin just roll over and play dead over this? But that's a judge. This has been discussed in all seriousness, all across Moscow, several levels, people close to the government outside, think tanks, very good analysts, military analysts, NATO has to be struck. There's no other way. If it goes on like this, attacks against inside the Russian Federation and especially this place in Briance is part of the nuclear triad as well. So this is extremely serious. So they keep attacking factors that are linked to the nuclear triad and there's no response. There has to be a response. This was part of the conversation that I had off the record with the great Sergei Karagan of a little over two weeks ago in Moscow. Of course, it's off the record, but essentially Sergei, which he knows everything about Russia.

5:13He says no. The only way for NATO to understand is to inflict fear on them. Otherwise these attacks will continue. Wow. Is there pressure? I know we want to get to Iran, but this is so fascinating. Is there pressure on President Putin, either from common folks or media people, elites or his inner circle, either to end the war radically and quickly or to attack the people that are attacking him? Which in this case would be either a NATO nation, probably great Britain. The Brits. Of course, the Brits are behind all these stormshadow attacks are the Brits. Everybody knows that. But nothing is done. That's the problem. So, of course, you won't hear this from Putin's inner circle. You won't hear this from oligarchs, but you'll hear from people in the security apparatus, some of the top agencies, inside they're still working inside and retired ones.

6:19And of course, in some of Russian TV shows, usually every retired military officer has been saying that for months, if not some years, in fact. If there is no counter attack against NATO, this will continue to escalate. And the problem is these attacks inside the Russia Federation, in parts of the nuclear triad, all across the Black Sea. From now on, this is going to increase. It's in absolutely enough. Of course, linked to the desperation of NATO as a whole in terms of their strategic defeat. So there's got to be at least one Orish-Nic business car being delivered to a NATO destination. But that's not how Putin reasons. And here's the ultimate decider. And he still believes there is possible to have an agree. It's absolutely out of the question to have an agreement with NATO in Ukraine.

7:26Well, let's move to the war in Iran. Before we get into these granular issues, with the exception of Western Europe and India, what has been the international geopolitical reaction to the Netanyahu and Trump war of choice? Perplexity. Or they prefer not to talk about it. So in Latin America, for instance, perplexity. In Africa, perplexity. Here in South Korea, there is a total perplexity. They are looking at the Chinese response. And the Chinese response so far has been very measured. The best thing is what the Chinese are doing underground and invisibility. How they have been helping in terms of satellite information, ISR 24-7 passing real-life, real-time real-life information to the Iranians, this is what matters.

8:26But as a whole all across the global South, people see it as a mix of arrogance, extreme blunder, and now extreme danger for the whole global economy. The global economy starting this week, it's starting to plunge deeply into a black void. With unforeseen consequences. How is it that China is still able to receive all of its oil from Iran? Because they made a bilateral deal, Judge. It was concluded for good this past Thursday. They had an understanding before, but then they had a super-deal clenched only a few days ago. All tankers going to China, you don't even need to ask permission. Russia, the same thing.

9:27Some other nations who approach the Iranians, for example, Bangladesh, the same thing. The Iranians understood that Bangladesh is in deep energetic trouble. But everybody else, and this has been reiterated over and over again, today, once again, today this previous morning in Tehran, everybody else is considered a whole style. And if you want to cross, you have to ask permission for Iran. Or with the exception of these countries that are friendly with Iran, you mentioned Bangladesh and China, are the Straits of Hormuz closed? This is what is fantastic. It's ambiguous, Judge. The Iranians are saying, look, the Strait is not closed, but the Strait is not open. This means you have to talk to us if you want to cross the Strait. Well, if they say the Strait is not closed, but the Strait is not open, that means that those rich insurance brokers in London are going to pull their coverage.

10:31Why would the London insurance market ensure a tanker if there was a chance of it being blown up? Absolutely, Judge. And who, in fact, is blocking the Strait of Hormuz? Lords of London and other insurers. Lords of them both are based in London. Of course, nobody is going to ensure a tanker knowing that it can be drowned out of the sea any time. Of course. And especially if it's linked to Western interest, NATO Stan as a whole, of course, the whole NATO space. Japan, South Korea is, we still don't know. It's possible that South Korea would try to do a backroom deal with Iran as well. For the moment, that's very hazy. And some other Asian nations, which consider Iran friendly and Iran considers them friendly. Here is Newt Gingrich, conservative Republican former Speaker of the House of Representatives,

11:32supporter of President Trump. His wife is the United States ambassador, Switzerland, one of the top three most desirable ambassadors. Here's what he said yesterday about the Straits of Hormuz, Chris No. 30. They have to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Yes. I don't care what it costs. If they can't keep it open, this war will, in fact, be an American defeat before very long because the entire world, including the American people, will react to the price of oil. Agreed, right? How could you disagree? Straight to the point, absolutely. But when he says a day, a judge, that means that the US Navy, they can't. The US Navy has already recognized that it's absolutely impossible for them to try to open the Strait. They're going to be sitting ducks if they try to get close to the Strait of Hormuz.

12:32Everybody knows that. Iran has all the cards, period. What did India do or fail to do that caused you to say they're probably going to have to leave Bricks? Well, this is a possibility. Bricks would have grounds to expel India, considering that India betrayed sequentially two top Bricks, founding member of Russia and a new member Iran, in several levels, because of American pressure, when Trump administration told India, you cannot buy Russian oil. The India said, okay, okay, master. And now, by the way, that's the reverse of the whole thing. They can keep buying Russian oil, but the Russians told them, okay, but now, forget about those discounts that we were giving you until a few weeks ago. Now you're going to have to pay the spot market price and every increase of oil, you're going to have to pay us all the increases. Well, of course, with Iran is even worse. 48 hours before the decapitation strike that killed Ayatollah Khamenei and very important

13:37people at the top of the government in Tehran, Modi was in Israel being best buddies with the war criminal Netanyahu, because he wanted to clinch weapons deals with Israel, which they did, by the way. So we have a founding Bricks member completely aligned with Israel, which for the other Bricks, practically all the other ones, and the partners as well, this is unthinkable. So they made their choice. And it's very, very enlightening to see, very well prepared, educated, Indian analysts, scholars, et cetera, they are venting their, they don't even know how to express it. They are appalled, and they say, we cannot explain this to the rest of the global south, because we, Indians are always saying we are one of the leaders of the global south after that. Forget it. They sided with the empire, they sided with Israel, right before the attack on Iran.

14:43So it's going to be very hard to patch these things together. And especially in a year where the sharemanship of Bricks later this year is India. And the summit, the annual Bricks summit is going to be in Delhi in November. Support is available 24-7 with verbal care. We're here day or night, ready whenever you need help, because a great trip starts with the right support. Wow. I can even imagine, George, the Bricks Sherpas, they're next meeting what it's going to be. Excuse me. The new Ayatollah was named into Iran, the son of the one that Netanyahu and Trump murdered. How was he greeted by Russian President Putin? Personally, with the message, Putin wrote a personal message to Mustafa Kaminay, personally

15:43greeting him, expressing his belief that Russia, Iran relationship is very, very special and continue to be special, praising the memory of his father extremely important. The Chinese diplomatically, they more or less had the same thing. This is very, very important. And on the appointment of Mustafa Kaminay, George, this is extremely important for all of us in terms of what is behind it in the symbology and even the poetic and magical overtones. He is being revered and people are pledging allegiance, basically, to an idea. He hasn't spoken since he was appointed. He made zero appearances live. He has been wounded in the decapitation strike, apparently, very seriously in his legs. So he's not appearing any time soon.

16:44So people are pledging allegiance to a new Supreme Leader that for the moment is an idea. It's the symbol of the continuity of government linked to his father. This is how powerful that is. You don't need, who is speaking on behalf of Mustafa Kaminay, the new leader, the IRGC? So it's the language of weapons and the language of resistance and the language of we're fighting this war to the end. China owns about 760 billion in U.S. bonds. What are they doing? Trash your bonds. What are they doing with them? They are selling it in enormous batches and they are hoarding as much gold as they can. This is what they have been doing for quite a while now. But especially this past 10, 12, 13 days, and we'll continue like that.

17:48But of course the Chinese do it very discreetly and considering what we just had the approval of the new five-year plan in Beijing, the discussions are still going on. They're still lingering. This was basically last week, but still there are lateral discussions. And this is the dual track continues in terms of emphasis on domestic market and moralistic and care of all the nearly of problems affecting domestic market and consumption. And internationally is basically the Belt and Road Initiative projects everywhere, including Iran. Iran is a key node of the Belt and Road and New Silk Road. And that's why many other, this war is also against China in terms of against China's

18:49connectivity corridors. It has Russia and Iran connectivity corridors, the North-South Transportation Corps. It's a war of connectivity corridors as well. I'm going to jump to U.S.-Russia relations in a minute, but we have a new clip from President Trump asking him about declaring victory. Watch this. Can you declare victory in this war if the Supreme Leader remains the Iatola Sun? I don't want to comment on that. Judge, I think that the key point in 30 seconds, Taco is on the table. He's trying to find Taco any way he can because he knows that this war, the way he was not planned from the beginning, is lost. Is that why he pulled President Putin the other day?

19:50Of course. So, we are keeping track of how many TACOs are on the table so far, at least four. Diplomatic talk between the Americas and Turkey, Qatar and Oman. These were related to the Iranians. The Iranian response, no. The phone call that it was a phone call from President Trump to President Putin. And when you read the, when you see the readout by the Kremlin and the observations by U.S.-Chakob top presidential adviser, it's fascinating. U.S.-Chakob, as we know, is a note forks. It's fantastic what he did not say, but basically what he's saying is that Trump was asking advice from Putin or how to win this whole thing. And Putin basically said, look, I can help you to be a mediator.

20:51But then, this implies that the Iranians want mediation and want a possible ceasefire. And they're, they keep repeating over and over again, no. Not only that, which is the theme of one of the columns I wrote earlier this week. They have a list of demands to even start considering stopping the war, which they don't want to. And this list is extremely detailed. Basically, I described it as an eviction notice. They want the United States out of West Asia period. And this is no negotiable for them. How can... Is that what... Is that what... Is that what... Is that what... No, no, no. I'm extrapolating. Putin basically told Trump, look, if I can be a mediator. And of course, he's the only one who can be a mediator because he has accent relations with all the players, with Israel, with Iran, and with everybody in West Asia.

21:55The only one. And obviously they will listen to him because they respect him. But of course... How fragile is the US-Russia relationship? What do the Russians think of those two real estate agents? He keeps sending over there. And the next time with Kov, I'd realize this is a triple question, but you can handle something. The next time with Kov, of course, Putin, why should he even take the call? Exactly. They take the call because the Russians are stickless for diplomacy and rules, right? Judge, they respect rule, they respect diplomacy. And they never abandon any negotiation or any possibility of a diplomatic conversation. But this now is a pro forma, I would say. Everybody in Moscow, in the circles of power and around, know that these are clowns. Literally. And not only they are disposable clowns. The press of the United States is already throwing them under the bus, saying that they

22:57forced me to bomb Iran. Of course, because Trump never, never admits that he made a mistake. So he's already blaming the clowns around him. So of course, they look at with Kov, Kushner, of course, they are the butt of zillions of jokes. Well, they put a lot of crazy ideas in his head, and of course he's not a deep thinker. But here's what he said yesterday, he feared what happened within a week. Now there's no evidence made public about this whatsoever. But listen to what he says, Chris, the new cut number one. I give you the best reason of all, within a week, they were going to attack us 100%. They were ready. They had all these missiles far more than anyone thought. And they were going to attack us. But they were going to attack all of the Middle East and Israel. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they would have used it in Israel. They did not have the ability, the desire, or the will to attack the United States zero.

24:03What conceivable evidence is there for a nonsensical statement like that? Who's feeding this crap to him, Jerk? Probably Netanyahu. Exactly. And apart from Netanyahu in Washington, these clowns of course, plus absolutely ghastly linteggram. Yeah. None of these people know anything about Iran, shias, how the system works, or nothing. They don't know anything. But Trump listens to them. Can you imagine Trump picking up the phone and calling our friends Larry Johnson, Ray my government in three minutes, Larry, and Ray will say, don't do this. It's absolute suicide. Right. Well, he once had Doug McGregor there. And Doug was just too rational for the rest of us. Right. Right. I think you're right.

25:04I think he's going to recognize that this is a catastrophe and it's going to fire Whitcoff as son-in-law and the shoot him up, Pete, Secretary of Defense who calls himself Secretary of War, who really has become reprehensible. I mean, the New York Times is reporting that the Defense Department has concluded that the United States intentionally attacked that school that killed 170 people, but probably were guided to do it by the Israelis because these girls, sub-private school, these girls were the daughters of IRGC officers. Absolutely. This is Barbara. This is Barbara is a meditite. Absolutely. This is beyond barbarism, church. And with the extra components, which is even more perverse, that this was a ritualistic

26:07sacrifice to intimidate the Iranian population as a whole. Look, we can't bomb all your kids any time in the war and there's nothing you can do about it. This is immensely serious and immensely, in terms of perversion, it's hard to beat. And of course, the mother's operandi was the same, two tap, Tomahawk. The second tap was to kill the teachers, the parents and the teachers, the first for the girls, based on faulty intelligence. And of course, a sort of indirect attack on the IRGC. Here is Trump's, I don't know if he's a friend or a former friend, again, New Gingrich on Trump underestimating the IRGC, Chris No. 31. We're going to discover that we thought it was better connected and have at least 200,000 people who are true believers, and they have no future.

27:07I mean, they, they, Trump can stay on conditional surrender. These folks know if they lose power, they have no, well, but this is not judge. If you allow me 30 seconds, this is beyond nonsense. They have power and they are supported now by the whole population of Iran. And it's whatever you think about the IRGC ideologically, it's a formidable fighting machine, and they are proving it now, and they were prepared for the war. The Americas were never prepared for this kind of war. The, the, the IRGC has been training for this war for decades, in fact, and they are proving how good they are with Intel help from Russia and China. Essential. It's what I described in some detail in two of these columns. Right. One more clip, this is from Monday. It's hard to believe he said this, referring to Whitcoff and his son and Lord Kushner as

28:11realtors. The realtors told me to do it. Cut number seven. The situation was very quickly approaching. The point of no return in the United States found that intolerable, in my opinion, based on what Steve and Jared and Pete and others were telling me Marco so involved, that I thought that they were going to attack us. I thought they would, if we didn't do this at the time we did it, I think they had in mind to attack us. This will go down in history as one of the most stupid geopolitical statements ever. Can you imagine a president that decides to bomb a sovereign country because his friends told him to? Well, that's what it comes down to. There's a couple of reporters there who are suddenly earning their stripes, fearlessly going one-on-one with him and I'm waiting for one of them to say, would you share the

29:11evidence with us that they were about to strike because your intelligence community says they don't have the ability to strike the United States. Or absolutely, yes. But that's a construction of narrative versus reality, which is a pretty good definition of this presidency now. Here is the reporter who is being lauded in the United States today. This was on March 9th, so it was three days ago, but watch this number 19. You just suggested that Iran somehow got its hands on a Tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war, but you're the only person in your government saying this. Even your defense secretary wouldn't say that when he was asked standing over your shoulder on your plane on Saturday. Why are you the only person saying this? Because I just don't know enough about it. I think it's something that I was told is under investigation, but Tomahawks are used

30:16by others. As you know, numerous other nations have Tomahawks. They buy them from us, but I will certainly whatever the report shows, I'm willing to live with that report. Yes, it was a Tomahawk from South Korea, Judge. End of story. Right. Right. The reprehensible, what happened, barbaric, what happened, and they compound it by lying about it. Thank you very much, my dear friend, there's so much here who digest your conversations are so informative and yet deep and profoundly appreciated, my dear friend, all the best to you. All the best from a Buddhist nation here. Yes. It's a peaceful Buddhist nation. Thank you. Thank you. See it's done. Okay. If you're watching us live in 30 minutes, but at 3 o'clock this afternoon, Thursday, on all of this, his comments can be characterized as Trump's catastrophe, the Great Filter

31:23Oddly, Judge Napolitano for judging for him.