Our Year-Ahead US Equity Market Outlook

The big things you need to know:

• First, our 12-month-forward price target for the S&P 500 is 7,750, approximately the median and average of five different models that we use, which focus on sentiment, valuation, the appeal of stocks relative to bonds, the economic outlook, and monetary policy.
• Second, some of the key headwinds / downside risks and tailwinds / upside risks we’re monitoring include shifts in expectations for the economic backdrop, renewed interest in geographical diversification, and the midterm elections.
• Third, tactically (near term) we are leaning into the rotation in leadership within the US equity market from Growth to Value and the mega cap Growth trade to the rest of the market, but caution that a shift in earnings dynamics is still needed for this transition to have significant duration.
• Fourth, we have gotten more comfortable adding to Small Caps but see risk that recent outperformance ends up being short-lived once again unless the underlying economic backdrop / overall economic conditions heat up significantly.