Olive Resource Capital Reports 151% Return for 2025, Eyes M&A Wave in 2026

Recording date: 12th January 2026

Olive Resource Capital delivered exceptional performance in 2025, reporting a 151% return after all fees and expenses, significantly outperforming commodity benchmarks despite maintaining only 50% precious metals exposure. The fund's diversified approach across gold, copper, and other commodities demonstrated the value of strategic stock selection during a favorable commodity cycle.

Executive Chairman Derek Macpherson and President & CEO Samuel Pelaez announced the results in their January 12, 2026 investment update, highlighting December's 11% gain that capped a strong fourth quarter. The impressive investment performance translated directly to shareholder value, with the stock price appreciating 240% during 2025. This helped compress the fund's discount to net asset value from approximately 40% at year-start to an estimated 60-70% by year-end, though meaningful upside remains if shares continue converging toward full NAV.

Looking ahead to 2026, management expects increased merger and acquisition activity driven by record free cash flow generation at major producers. Gold prices averaged $4,100-4,300 per ounce in Q4 2025, approximately $500 above Q3 levels, creating substantial acquisition capital. The combination of elevated commodity prices and three consecutive years of declining oil costs has expanded operating margins significantly across the sector.

Key portfolio holdings exemplify Olive's investment thesis. K92 Mining produced 47,000 ounces in 2025 at 8 grams per tonne while advancing multiple expansion phases with internal funding. Ivanhoe Mines announced full financing for its Platreef PGM project's phase two expansion, targeting 450,000 ounces by late 2027 en route to becoming the world's largest primary platinum group metals operation. Arizona Sonoran Copper is negotiating to terminate joint venture encumbrances, potentially clearing obstacles for strategic alternatives.

Management identified a valuation gap between gold producers trading at 7-12 times earnings versus the S&P 500's 13-14 times multiple, suggesting room for continued sector appreciation as generalist investors recognize improving fundamentals and robust cash generation across commodity producers.

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