Oil Shock: Melbourne Businesses Brace for Recession

0:00It's April 16th. Welcome to Sydney News today, powered by AI. Melbourne businesses like Butcher Raj Garung are bracing for tough times as middle-east tensions, drive up oil prices, and spark recession fears down. Under. Lambs aplasers short, cost are climbing, and fuel surcharges are hitting deliveries for over $10 a pop. Retail sales have already dipped 5-10% with economist pegging recession odds now over 40%. This oil shock acts like another COVID punch, fueling inflation that central banks can't easily tame. Experts call it a nightmare setup for stagflation, where gross stalls but prices keep soaring. The reserve bank might hike interest rates three more times this year to fight it off. Folks are feeling the squeeze hard. Hair salon owners see fewer customers skipping long drives to save on petrol. Households are cutting meat for meals, ditching dinners out, and juggling bills, rent and mortgages just to give buy.

1:01Economist warned of mass job losses if the war drags on, pushing unemployment from 4.3% toward 6 or even 8%. Inflation could hit 6 or 7% echoing painful 70 shocks, but with better tools to manage, the risks remain high. The federal budget in May aims for restraint to avoid worsening inflation, leaving room for worse scenarios. How long the conflict lasts will decide of households and policy makers can steer clear of deeper pain.