Oil Price Spike Could Crash Global Economy

0:00Welcome to Navara Live, apologies for the very slight delay, but we do have a great show coming up for you. As you'll probably know, global oil prices are skyrocketing, as Israel has bombarded Iran's energy infrastructure and still no boats can go through the straight off our moves. Tony Blair is trying to go to Kirstama into joining the war on Iran, and Iran has announced a new supreme leader. I've got some great guests coming up, and throughout the show, I'm joined by Kajah Kharam, delighted to have you with us, Professor of Law and Political Economy at Loftbury University. You've had a promotion since you last came on the show, I think. Thank you so much Michael and yeah, you know, taking baby steps up, but I'm great to be in conversation with you. Yeah, congratulations, great to have you in the studio as well. I think we've had you down the line before. The US and Israel have continued their campaign of massive air strikes on Iran, and over

1:09the weekend, the targeting of civilian infrastructure yielded some of the most apocalyptic footage we've seen yet. And so on Saturday night, Israel struck at least four oil depots and a petroleum logistics site around Iran, setting the skies a light above the city and filling the air with toxic smoke, just incredible footage. According to authorities, six people were killed and at least 20 wounded at one of the sites as fireballs and columns of thick smoke filled the city's skyline, burning fuel also flowed out of the oil depots and into the city's streets, turning its drains and streets into rivers of fire. It wasn't just oil that caught fire, though. Gas pipes exploded too. So what you saw there was a series of explosions as a gas supply blew up along to runs Saran

2:15Boulevard. On Sunday morning, those fires were still burning and were smoke continuing to below from the burning facilities pumping thick black gunk into the air as well as into people's lungs. It's a very heavily populated area. When it rained in the early morning as well, the water that fell from the sky was black, blanketing the city in oily, city rainwater. The drops are set to have absorbed a variety of toxic hydrocarbons as well as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leading some to labelled acid rain. CNN's Fred Pleikin had this report on Sunday morning. But you can see that the rain, the rain water, is actually black, also saturated. It appears with oil. And then if we look over there, you can see that the the water that's running down here also is black. So that's what's coming down this morning, this sort of oil-filled rain that we have right now on the Iranian capital after the strikes

3:16are placed. Writing in the independent atmospheric chemist Gabriela De Silva gave this description of the rain's contents. This black rain indicates toxic pollutants such as hydrocarbons, ultra-fine particles known as PM2.5 and carcinogenic compounds called polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, which have made their way into the rain. On top of this, there would be a mix of other unknown chemicals, likely including heavy metals and inorganic compounds from the building materials and everything else caught up in the initial explosions and the ensuing fires. Iranians in Tehran have been instructed to protect their health by staying indoors using masks and avoiding the rain. But naturally, people are terrified. Medi, a Tehran resident conveyed this message to the Guardian by relatives outside the country. We are so scared to even clean the windows and balconies. There's soot everywhere and we don't want to touch it with gloves. My eyes are burning and I look outside and see people without masks are going on with their daily lives. I am not so brave. There's this smell in the air. I can't explain. Another resident wrote this on Sunday morning

4:20after leaving Tehran. The red depot you won't believe was still on fire and it's insane because in the night it looked like day and in the day it was so dark. It looked like a new moon night, so so dark just like our futures. While I was leaving, I noticed there wasn't a single bird in the sky and you know what they say. When the birds abandon you, you are truly on your own. We have so many cats in the city. If these attacks continue, whoever rules here next, they will rule over a democracy of cats. But then even cats only have nine lives. I saw these images on Saturday. It's one of those ones where I had to say, no, surely this is AI. This can't be real. It's not just a metaphor. It's the real instantiation of a war, which we hear so much about this being targeted strikes, but a war against the whole people. A city which is literally raining oil because the Israeli is targeted civilian infrastructure. Those images show the real horror of what

5:21war actually means. And so when people are championing the idea of, for an intervention, when people are enjoying the kind of military aggression of this recalibrated Trump America, this is what the reality of it actually is. People with their eyes burning, people haven't to navigate scenes that like you say don't look like real life. It looks like something from the end of days, the book of revelations. There's a public ruling line that comes to my mind and I was looking at those scenes from the poem. I shall explain this where he talks about bonfires leaping from the earth and devouring human beings. And that's the reality of what we're seeing here. And I just hope that those who do champion the aggression that Trump has shown towards Iran, also champion the huge amount of human casualties and refugees that are going to be produced by this, especially when they then eventually start to seek refuge, perhaps around on our shores. I suppose that I mean the sad thing about the war with Trump and Hexhev

6:25running it is that I mean they do. It's not like what they say, this is going to be a war but don't worry. Hexhev has literally said the people who should be worried are the Iranians who think they're going to live. They're not pretending that this isn't a deadly war against millions and millions of people. Let's go back to what else happened over the weekend. So and into today, of course, whether US and Israel have continued their bombing campaign across Iran in Isfahan, a historic city in the central or in central Iran, airstrikes took place close to a pro-government rally with people waving Iranian flags and shouting, God is great as smoke filled the sky over their heads. Similar rallies have taken place across Iran celebrating the appointment of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Haminai and the son of killed former Supreme Leader Ali Haminai. And we'll be discussing him in much more detail later in the show. Now in Tehran doctors and other medical workers have been protesting the bombing of Iranian hospitals across the country

7:25by US and Israeli forces and of course a violation of international war. According to the country's medical council, 20 hospitals have been attacked with 10 medical personnel dying in the assaults. CNN has been backing up those reports. This crater is at least 40 foot wide. That means it was likely caused by a 2000 pound bomb. The target Iran's state broadcaster, the IRIB, the strike wiped out its communications mast. These bombs used by both the US and Israel are capable of killing or wounding people more than a thousand feet away. And just a hundred feet away is the Gandhi hospital, one of the biggest in Tehran. Glass shattered, walls collapsed, and patience including babies being rushed out. As more videos like this one began to emerge, we started verifying them. Pinpointing the hospital where each one was filmed, then we cross reference with satellite imagery to see the damage caused

8:28by US and Israeli strikes. Like here you can see the blown out windows of the Gandhi hospital from space. Over and another central part of Tehran is the Motahari hospital, and just behind it is the Iranian police headquarters. In fact you can see a police helicopter pad down here. This image is from just before it was struck and this is after entire buildings flattened. The Motahari hospital is still standing, but we verified this video showing substantial damage inside. It's not the only hospital in the area affected. Over here is the Hatam hospital, glass windows shattered, and medical staff are seen running out. Further down the same street is the Iranian Red Crescent Society. Smoke billowing from behind the building, again people are fleeing. Across Iran as a whole, more incidents like these are emerging. We geolocated this video to the

9:31Persian Gulf Hospital in the city of Beşahar. You can see newborn babies being carried out amid the rubble. It's not just hospitals the US and Israel have hit. There was of course the girls primary school hit by missiles in Iran's Minab. At least 165 people were killed there. Most of them young girls aged between 7 and 12. A new evidence has added way to the claim that the US was responsible for those strikes. Footage released by Iranian news agency Mer and geolocated by Belenk as a US Tomahawk missile hitting an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps facility on the 28th of February. The same day the school was struck. In the video, smoke can be seen already rising from roughly the location of the school and relative to the RGC building suggesting it had been hit shortly before the second strike. The US is the only actor in this war known to have Tomahawk missiles. So strongly just suggested it was a Tomahawk so they also hit that school. That's an uncomfortable revelation for US President Donald Trump who was asked about the attack

10:31on Saturday. Did the United States bomb a girls elementary school in southern Iran on the first day of the war in 175 people? Based on what I've seen that was done by Iran. Is that true? Mr. Haksat? That was Iran. You did that? We're certainly investigating. Still investigating. But the only side that targets civilians is Iran. We think it was done by Iran. Well, things are growing increasingly difficult for civilians in Iran. They may also be growing harder for the US President Donald Trump. On Saturday the President appeared at a ceremony to receive the bodies of six US service personnel killed in Iran's retaliatory strikes against US bases in the Middle East. The so-called dignified transfer appeared less dignified than usual with Trump wearing a USA baseball cap that he sells as a campaign merch. Those were scenes so potentially disrespectful to the American public that Fox News aired archived footage instead showing Donald Trump at a previous transfer involving the remains of US troops from Syria.

11:33And Fox later issued an apology. But Trump may also be troubled by ruptures in the world markets today. Oil hit $120 per barrel this morning. The highest has been since 2022. The year Russia invaded Ukraine. It did fall to around $100 mid-morning, though. That was after reports. The G7 would intervene to stabilize the price. The G7 later said, however, that it wasn't there yet on releasing oil reserves to combat rising prices. So we could see them go up again. Global markets have also been hit hard with the US and Israel's war in Iran, fought with knocked four and a half trillion pounds from global stock markets. And when that valuation doesn't include this morning's oil shock. And that surge in the price of crude is a result of Iran's decision to close the strait of Hormuz. That's the narrow corridor between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea through which the vast majority of oil produced in the Gulf states must travel. Iran has threatened to set any ships attempting to pass it on fire and threatening global oil supplies. Some of the Trump administration appeared to think this is

12:35all a price worth paying. This was White House Press Secretary Karen and Levitt on Fox News. Now with respect to what's happening with gas prices right now, this is a short-term disruption for the long-term gain of taking out the rogue Iranian terrorist regime and finally ending their restriction of the free flow of energy in the Middle East and in the strait of Hormuz. All right, today I spoke to foreign policy analyst and host of the view from here, podcast Jasmine El Gamel. Jasmine also served as a Middle East advisor to the Pentagon during the Obama administration. I began by asking her whether the attacks on Tehran's oil facilities reflected an escalation in the U.S. Israeli war on Iran. It serves at a pretty as a pretty big escalation because of the precedent that it sets. Iran itself said in its response that this sets a president and that it should be expected to retaliate in kind. And we've seen that retaliation in Bahrain and of course it could happen with other countries as well. One of the biggest things we're looking at this week is the potential for further expanded strikes on energy infrastructure,

13:41both in Iran and in the Gulf. We talked a lot on the show about how the Americans and the Israelis seem to have somewhat different objectives. Is it you're understanding that the attacks against the oil infrastructure is by the Israelis because the Americans by all accounts seem quite concerned about oil prices at the moment. So sort of sparking a war where everyone's incentivized to hit each of us, you know, oil reserves seems like an odd move. That's right. And it's not just because of the oil prices, but it's also about the future of Iran. If you are going to be setting this country up for success, let's say after this regime is gone in whatever time frame that is, why would you attack oil infrastructure that actually serves the Iranian people and would ostensibly be used for future generations of Iranians. And so that's something that Senator Lindsey Graham, for example, posted about on X. As you know, he's been one of the loudest voices pushing for this war and

14:42advocating for the war that there's been reporting that he was very closely aligning and coordinating with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence to come back to President Trump and use those points to advocate for the war. He's long been an Iran hawk advocating for regime change. Even he put out a statement after they're saying, thank you, we're very grateful to the Israelis, we're in lockstep with each other, but please make sure you're not hitting any infrastructure that will prevent the Iranian people from having a solid chance at a better future. What do you think it would take for the United States to reopen the straight of Hormuz? Because this seems to be the key choke point now that Iran is sort of creating leverage by keeping this closed. I mean, is it the case that the only way to reopen that is to make some kind of negotiated peace with the Iranians? Or do you think there is a military solution there? There's no military solution. There is rarely a purely military solution for any of these big

15:44issues that we're talking about. And this is coming from someone who worked at the Pentagon. It's ironic that people who work in the military sphere are sometimes the ones who know best that the military is not a solution in itself. So with the straight, this was one of Iran's biggest plays, of course. When we were predicting what would happen in the case of a U.S. strike on Iran, the biggest thing that Iran, or the biggest card that Iran had to play was the closure of the straight of Hormuz, because that would send shockwaves around the world. Another big card that you've seen played out is those attacks on the Gulf countries, making it all of the sudden uncertain that the Gulf could be a safe place to work and live and invest. And of course, the third would be the activation of its proxies across the region. You saw his Balla being activated in Lebanon, the Houthis seemed to be staying out of it for the moment. So when it comes to the straight,

16:44it's actually not necessarily something that Iran has to do physically. It's just something that Iran has to threaten, right? It's something that the Houthis have to threaten. That is enough to make insurance companies really nervous and ships and tankers nervous about going through that strain. So actually, Iran gets to get a maximum effect by not doing as much. And so the U.S. could offer to ensure those tankers and to step in. But at the end of the day, as long as there's that risk of Iran doing something in the strait, which is a credible risk, then it's a problem. I mean, the problem of the Americans is also quite cheap to do that, right? You just have to have the capacity to send some drones to shoot at ships and then you've disrupted 20% of the global oil markets. You spoke there about how it is people in the Pentagon who often, you know, realize sort of some of the consequences of what war might be. Do you think that's happening now?

17:47I mean, obviously, Pete Hexf doesn't seem like a particularly intellectual fellow. Will he be getting, will there be people screaming at him in the Pentagon saying like, we told you this was going to happen? Or do you think sort of the sharing of expertise is just completely broken down? So, look, a couple of things. One is, you're right, Pete Hexf. I mean, he served in combat before. He served in tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. But he's also someone who is extremely loyal to the president who wouldn't have had a chance of getting this job, had it been, had it not been for the president? And so he is very much on the president's side. Whatever the president said, Pete Hexf will implement and will sell to the American public. One would hope, and I imagine this is happening that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Commanders in theater are actually presenting those pros and cons and the risk assessments to the political leadership. But of course, as you know, that military operates under civilian

18:50leadership. And so at the end of the day, it really is President Trump's decision and the military will execute whatever the commander-in-chief decides. Do you think Donald Trump has already realized that this is a mistake? Because I mean, from what he was, the way he was talking, it seemed as if he thought this could be an easy win like in Venezuela. You take out the Ayatollah Hamani and then you choose someone else to take over who is more compliant, let's say. That clearly isn't happening. The oil price has rocketed. This is going to hit Americans in their pocketbook. This is not going to be good for the midterms. Do you think on some level he feels like he was duped into this by the Israelis and now he's trying to find a way out? Well, it's hard to get into his head, of course. But one can imagine that President Trump was very emboldened by the Venezuela operation and by the success in his eyes of the 12th day war last year with Iran. He's also struck military targets in the past in the Middle East in his

19:52first term, Syria. He has surrounded himself with a bunch of sycophants, essentially, yes, men and yes women who don't tell him what he needs to hear. They are all very, very loyal to him. It's a very different cabinet and team than he had around him in the first administration. In his first administration, he was still very much an outsider in Washington, DC. He didn't really know how to play the game and he was surrounded by people and this really used to upset him who were described in the media as the adults in the room, people who were restraining him, like General Mattis, former cent comp commander, who became the Secretary of Defense and General Atomic Master, who was his not first national security advisor and who was also a military historian. I mean, really serious people who would sit there and try to talk some sense into him. None of that is there. So I think that dangerous combination of previous successes and group

20:55thing within his administration led him to take this step, which any rational analyst or security professional would have predicted would unfold the way it has. How much agency to the Gulf monarchies have in this situation? Because I mean, they're all going to feel a bit pissed off at the moment, right? They became American allies and they were under the American security umbrella and they were supposed to be protected from things like this. What's happened is a war was started, a war of choice by the Israelis and the Americans had nothing to do with them and they are now facing enormous costs. Does it matter if they join in militarily with the Americans and the Israelis or is there something they could do in the other direction that would force Washington and Israel to stop or slow down? This is a tough one. The Gulf is in such a precarious situation now. I mean, as you said, they were not even consulted. They were not even given a heads up that this was about to happen. It was a complete surprise obviously led by the US and Israel and they had no say in the matter.

22:01They had spent a long time trying to convince President Trump that that military action was not the way to go, that it would be very risky. In fact, Saudi Arabia had made that calculation years ago when it decided through the Chinese to start a detente process with Iran, basically, trying to take matters into its own hands and try to build that security, that calm in the region because, as you know, the Gulf predicates its entire strategy on the assumption that it's a safe place to live and work and invest. Saudi vision's 2030 is all about that. That's why they've been trying really hard in these last several years to promote stability and security in the region. They were one of the main factors that convinced President Trump to meet with President Ahmad Desharah in Syria and support Syria and remove those sanctions from the Syrian government

23:02so as to promote that kind of economic stability in the region. All of that is falling apart right now and it's not just about what's happening now. They've been fairly, they've been very good at defending themselves from missiles and drones coming in from Iran. They've had over a 95% success rate but they've spent a lot of money doing that and that's going to affect their calculations in the future and now they also have to deal with this question moving forward. You're now Prince Turkey at Faisal said this to Christian Al-Mampur recently in an interview and I thought it was interesting how he described it. He said we're basically stuck between three competing ideologies that are all dangerous to us in the region. One is the greater Israel ideology of this current Israeli government. The other is the expansionist Islamic regime in Iran and then the third is Christian nationalism having taken over US foreign policy and military policy and that's all converging right now and we really don't have much that we can do about it.

24:08Does Israel face any blowback from this because I mean when you look at the United States you could see how Donald Trump might think oh I shouldn't actually do this again right because it has had significant blowback immediately when it comes to economic issues. Is Israel suffering at all from this or does Israel not care if oil prices go through the roof. They're just delighted that they've got an opportunity to completely rip apart the only peer competitor in the region. Not just peer competitor but if you look at and if you talk to Israelis when I talk to Israelis even left wing Israelis they will say that they believe Iran to be an existential threat to them. That is probably the one topic that most Israelis can agree on. They may not necessarily agree on the way to approach it but they do agree on the threat and so Prime Minister Netanyahu of course has used that to do something that he's wanted to do for 40 years. He said that himself which is take down the Iranian regime so their capacity for risk is going to be much higher given

25:14the reward the perceived reward on the other end of that. Who do you think might be next because I mean if you're Turkey looking at this you say sort of Israel seems to be you know completely off the leash. They've got an ideology where they want a greater Israel they don't want anyone who is going to have any capacity to stop them getting that greater Israel. Clearly they saw Iran as you know constraining their options to some degree when it came to what they can do in Gaza and the West Bank. Does anyone in the region now have to be sort of terrified that Israel might decide that next? Short answer is yes I mean the Israeli government has really operated with near total impunity ever since October 7th and haven't really been held to account by anyone not the Europeans not the Americans and not even the Arab states and the Gulf to be honest with you they haven't really faced the diplomatic isolation the economic isolation that that one would have expected given what they have done in Gaza and the West Bank violating international law on so

26:18many different ways the ICC arrest warrants it's they just haven't been held to account and so unless they are started unless they do start being held to account by all of those actors I just mentioned consistently there's no reason to believe that they won't continue to go after the targets they specify I was just watching now an interview on CNN with the Israeli foreign minister and he was asked you know is the next is the so the supreme leader's son who's now been elected supreme leader and announced mushtabahamini is he next for as a target for assassination and the foreign minister said well maybe and I'm just thinking how have we gotten to a point where we are just so casually discussing the prospects of extrajuditially assassinating ahead of state that's where we've come to the gloves are off international law has been completely pushed to the side and that creates a very dangerous environment not just in the Middle East I think but internationally

27:25as well obviously people are making lots of comparisons to Iraq in the sense that it was a war of choice in the Middle East I mean that when disasterally wrong hopefully Iran isn't as disastrous as that you know and would wish that upon any country and a difference between now and then is that the Iraq war as far as I understood had bipartisan support for it sort of there were some people who were brave enough to oppose it but there weren't many at all this war as far as I can tell again doesn't seem to have bipartisan support the Democrats aren't throwing their weight behind it how much does that matter how significant is it that America is going to war and it hasn't united the country's political class or even it's you know it's voters absolutely it's an extremely unpopular war not just with the Democrats but with voters as well although more democratic voters disapprove of it than Republican voters but as a whole the American public is against it and now people are starting to complain about gas prices as well which is where it hits them the hardest this is a very different situation from the Iraq war because during the Iraq war you have to

28:29remember that it was just after 9-11 which was the biggest shock to our generation in terms of an attack on the U.S. and what that did to the American psyche there was also this this atmosphere almost of intimidation in the sense that if you did dare to speak up against it you were considered and accused of being a traitor and it was a very poisonous environment back then people had their arms twisted really to support that war but all that said the administration still did go to the UN and still spent months making the case to the American people and building a coalition so that they wouldn't do it alone now we're operating not only with the benefit of hindsight knowing what could happen when you go and try to change your regime by force there are also none of those preparatory steps were made none of that you know making a case to the public or trying to get

29:30bipartisan support or building a coalition in fact as we just were talking about a few minutes ago our allies were not even consulted that was Jasmine Algamal speaking to me earlier today before we go on to our next story cojo you are co-hosting a Navarro media event soon and because you are co-hosting a Navarro media podcast coming out soon tell us about both of them brilliant well the podcast which is going to be released tomorrow is called death and Westminster and it is the story of a street homeless man called Julia Ramesh who passed away in 2018 right outside Big Ben right outside the houses of parliament and Julia's death wasn't just a tragedy as I started to investigate it it started to be emblematic of a wider systemic crisis Westminster has not just the most homeless people of any borough in the entire country it also has the most long-term empty homes of any borough in the country and also coincidentally also has the

30:32longest council house waiting list of any borough in the country these phenomena are on coincidental they're connected and so with this podcast we explore the systems that produce this crisis and show how they contribute to the pressures that are being felt by all of us in different ways and so that's what we're doing with this podcast and we're lucky that on the 19th we're going to have the opportunity to actually speak with some of the experts that I talked to in the podcast people like Stephanie Robby but also some of the people who are most most insightful about how wealth actually works in this country we've got Pfizer Shaheen we've got Peter Gagan and we're going to have a conversation to really try and understand how we've got ourselves in this place how we've got a system in which some people seem to be able to insulate themselves from economic pressure whilst everyone else is struggling day today with being able to pay their rent pay their mortgage or in Julius case even have a roof to sleep in sleep under every day we talk a lot of

31:37things on the left about a wealth tax but I don't know if we actually know how wealth works and so if you want to have an understanding of how wealth works listen to our podcast that is released tomorrow enjoying us on the 19 not how wealth works in a sense that you can get rich not how unfortunately so not to get well no if you don't have wealth this system is a different different podcast it's going to work for you and dark money will be live fit in hackney on the 19th of this month there are still tickets available via dice all link in all there all there will be a link in in the description and this podcast is launching tomorrow on presumably the normal Navarra media feed absolutely do check that out oh actually that's it's then Navarra's main podcast feed tomorrow I shouldn't preempt what I'm what I'm told to say you know it'll be available wherever you get your podcasts

32:40Kissama's approach to Trump's war on Iran risks pleasing nobody unlike Spain's Pedro San chassis hasn't spoken out against the war but that still hasn't won him many chords from the US president by the way I'm not happy with the UK either that island that you read about the lease okay he made it for whatever reason he made a lease of the island somebody came and took it away from him and it's taken three four days for us to work out where we can land there would have been much more convenient landing there's opposed to flying many extra hours so we are very surprised this is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with so that was Trump furious that Kissama didn't let the United States use and British bases in the Chagos Islands to attack Iran because the UK had rightly judged the attack to be illegal America's attack on Iran now many had assumed this was Kissama's background in international law finally coming to the

33:44fore we thought we'd elect this human rights lawyer we just hadn't seen it yet maybe this was the first peak into the morality of this man however a report from Tim Shipman in the spectator based on leaks from the National Security Council suggests that it was others in the cabinet who in fact directed UK policy in this instance so this is from that that piece so on Friday and this is the Friday before the initial attack on Iran ministers attending the National Security Council were briefed that Iran would fire back at our allies in the region and we can then be involved to help defend them that then turned into a massive political argument a senior security source said the Prime Minister was the person arguing in favor of the UK providing the bases to enhance the US's capability to attack Iranian missile sites and the source characterizes Starmer's position as once Iran starts firing missiles at its neighbors we need to do everything we can to prevent that using Diego Garcia which is the Chagos Island base allows the US to

34:44significantly enhance the rapidity with which they can hit targets and so that was Starmer's position people were pushing back though and these are the people who were pushing back so Tim Shipman says security sources are clear that Ed Miliband in particular took a petulant pacifistic legalistic and very political approach questioning why the UK should support the US he fundamentally doesn't like Trump and he doesn't like this Iran thing one says as labor leader in 2013 Miliband 40 attempts by David Cameron to bomb Syria after the Assad regime used chemical weapons many investments to regard this as a shameful episode he probably thinks it was a success the source side so this piece was written sort of as a criticism of Starmer really if that Cooper adopted the cautious approach of the foreign office they say deescalate negotiate deescalate negotiate based on reports she was getting from Oman that talks with Iran over its nuclear program were making progress she was only prepared to support being basing requests if the conflict moved into phase two the Iranians targeting Britain's Gulf allies this position was supported by Rachel Reeves and

35:47Shabbat Ahmed mood the home secretary um so you have four very senior ministers there including the home secretary chancellor foreign secretary um talking Starmer back from offering the US support from the get go now now of course that opposition to Trump didn't last very long um Starmer has since agreed to allow the US to use British bases for what he called defensive strikes on Iranian missile sites at least four US bombers have now arrived at RAF base fair for just days after Washington warned that strikes on Iran would surge significantly so it's a little bit ambiguous because it it seems like that Cooper and Reeves and Shabbat Ahmed mood they're kind of agreeing to what happened anyway which was once Iran does these retaliatory attacks then the Brits can get involved I mean that's also if you say if you're saying to the Americans well if you attack Iran and then they respond then we'll get involved well obviously the Iran was was going to respond of course so is it meaningful I mean it doesn't seem that substantial and like you say eventually

36:51what was being discussed as well panned out but I think it's interesting that within the cabinet there seems to be some division on how easily the Labour government should you know agree to to to Trump's request and I think that that division might speak to a further division in the government that might manifest itself over the coming months yeah it's also I mean it sounds like Ed Miliband was saying we actively want to stand up against Donald Trump why you know everyone in the country hates us they also hate Donald Trump why don't we take a disagree with him you know that would maybe make sense as we see in Starmer's initial decision to refuse the Americans use of our bases British bases through the wrath of Donald Trump someone else unimpressed and was apparently Tony Blair who would have guessed speaking at a private Jewish news event last Friday Blair told an audience at the UK should have backed Trump from the beginning in Iran and so the independent reports that Tony Blair said this at the event I am not saying anything that I haven't already said to the government I think we should have backed

37:51America from the very beginning we have got to be very clear about this as a country we're depending on the American Alliance for our country they are not just an ally they are an indispensable ally the American relationship matters it matters particularly today it's not a question of whether it's the president this president or that president if they are your ally and they are an indispensable cornerstone for your security you had better show up on foreign policy I think people would just prefer you to be strong and out there and clear even if they don't agree with you which is exactly his position when it came to Iraq and again if it's giving you deja vu that's not a surprise Tony Blair has also always been a complete sick affair when it comes to America this is from a declassified note he wrote to then president George W. Bush in the summer of 2002 just months before the US and UK jointly embarked on a legal war in Iraq so he said I will be with you whatever but this is the moment to assess bluntly the difficulties the planning on this and the strategy of the toughest yet this is not cost of owe this is not I've kind of started it is not even the goal for so I suppose to be honest there he's sort of pushing

38:55back saying Iraq will be difficult but he is saying I will be with you whatever which Kisama hasn't said to Donald Trump you know if we're going to give him a little bit of credit maybe some is due there not much on sky over the weekend foreign secretary if that Cooper and defended Starmer's initial decision there are some people in politics who think that we should always agree with the US whatever there are other people in politics who think we should never take action with the US again whatever the circumstances I don't think either of those positions is in the UK national interest and it is the responsibility for Kisama to act in the UK's national interest for British citizens that's what he's been doing are you calling Tony Blair a poodle I think the point is to make sure that actually we learn the lessons from some of the things that went wrong in Iraq and I think that is exactly what Kisama's done okay make sure we've got military action taking place as we speak to defend countries that

39:58are facing Iranian strikes because that is in the British national interest I mean they should push back against Tony Blair a bit more right she sounded I think most people listening to that would have been like you know I'm not so sure about saying now obviously she's in favor of now bombing Iranian missile sites I would I would do the Sanchez thing we're going to show clip of Sanchez in a moment and just say I'm against this I want absolutely nothing to do with this what I think the Brits should do but you know she's sounding the sounding a bit more reasonable on this I suppose that this is maybe this is something we don't say that much about Kisama's government on this it could be worse I mean I think that just shows how how far Blair drifted away from you know his initial promise of being you know this kind of third-way labor politician when he first you know won that overwhelming landslide in 1997 I mean his statement around the bombing of Iran I mean talk about you know the turd just just refuses to be flushed away I mean I think

41:02not only reveals a misreading of the British public's mood now it also I think underestimates the level to which his decision to take Britain into the war in Iraq really eroded British British faith and politics full stop I mean the sexed up documents the ignoring of the million people in the streets Tony Blair's decision to support George Bush in that war in Iraq I think continues to have ramifications in how little people believe politicians even you know decades later and he hasn't learned anything from it so after that experience and so many people dying off the ISIS after everything his position is still a British Prime Minister should do whatever America wants they're our most important ally because they're the world's most powerful country and therefore if America says jump a British Prime Minister should say how high that's that's basically his message which I suppose is why he's desperate to be on Trump's board of peace let's look at a different response so neither Blair nor Stama someone actually standing up to

42:09Donald Trump this is Pedro Sanchez doubling down on his opposition to the war in Iraq well certainly from the perspective of Spain the military escalation in the Middle East is a real threat not only for global peace which by itself would be sufficient but also for the prosperity of businesses of families of the households of our countries due to the evident rise in the cost of living that they will suffer a very own our economies the economies that are fundamentally domestic in nature that's why you know the position of the Spanish government and I would also say that of a large majority of Spanish society of rejecting this war and yes of advocating for multilateralism which by the way is so well represented when we talk about the United Nations by its current secretary general the Portuguese Antonio Gutérez I just noticed on screen that was an AI dubbed voice didn't sound very natural um Sanchez apparently this is so his his government was

43:15sort of dipping in the polls I think they might have had a couple of scandals but now the people around him think that this could mean he'll win the next election because basically everyone in you everyone in America thinks this is a stupid war now if everyone in America thinks that America's war in the least is done everyone in Europe's going to think it's dumber and I mean there is a decision that lots of European countries are making which you know that I suppose it's the context here is the war on Ukraine they don't want to really piss off Donald Trump because I know that they're still reliant on the Americans to defend Ukraine from the Russians so there there is that but I'm surprised that more of them aren't just coming out strongly saying this is stupid and a terrible idea if if for nothing but electoral game because people are going to respond well to that I know I mean listening to Sanchez there I just thought imagine that politician who's representing the general will of the their population you know people do know want this war people do know want the consequences of this war the spiking energy prices the spiking oil prices

44:19and there's an open goal for a politician to particularly and you know particularly represent that especially when you consider the fact that the alliance between the United States and European leaders has been fractured by Donald Trump's actions so aggressively over the past few months so why would a British prime minister or a leader of another European nation state be so specific sick of fountains towards Trump when he's clearly shown you know threatening to invade Greenland that he doesn't respect Europeans as equal allies a courier Karam thank you so much John we've got to let you go because you've got somewhere to be you guys don't go anywhere though because we have another interview coming up for you now Donald Trump wanted Iran to look like Venezuela his plan to the extent he ever had one

45:23was to make the Ayatollah haminayi or to take him out sorry and have him replaced with someone more accommodating to American interests he was explicit in this so speaking to Axios last week about who could become Iran's new supreme leader Trump said quote I have to be involved in the appointment like with Delci Rodriguez in Venezuela and Trump though has not got his way and much taba Kamenayi was on Sunday announced as Iran's new supreme leader if that name sounds familiar there's a reason much taba is the son of the deceased supreme leader the Ayatollah Ali haminayi and the 56 year old mid ranking cleric has until now kept a low profile and much taba haminayi has never held government office or given public speeches or interviews and nonetheless thousands today gathered into Iran's main square to pledge their allegiance to Iran's new ruler when Trump called for Iranians to take to the streets last weekend that's presumably

46:36not what he had in mind and far from an Iranian delci Iran's new leader is considered to be just as hardline as his father and the fact that the US and Israeli strikes have now killed his father his mother his wife and one of his children also means that much taba Kamenayi is unlikely to be willing to do the US or Israel's bidding and that was a point made in this AI generated video currently circulating on Rubica which is an Iranian social media app Hamani again so that's the message the Iranians are looking to send to the USA and to Israel

47:39but beyond the propaganda who is much taba Kamenayi I'm to find out I spoke to Eskandar Sadegi an Iran expert and lecturer at St Andrews and I began by asking him to tell me you about Iran's new supreme leader much of a haminayi is the second oldest son of the late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali haminayi he's 56 years old so we can look at this very much as kind of I guess a passing of the generational baton to a new elite within the Islamic Republic he's basically never had any public office so unlike his father who was both in the revolution council at the very beginning of the revolution he was the Friday prayer leader for Tehran which is a very kind of significant position he was then president for two whole terms and much the way his son has you know has never had a public office per se but he's

48:41kind of been known to be somebody who kind of operated more behind the scenes was very active in his father's office and was very obviously tapped in and well connected in terms of elite political networks I mean he also has a sort of a story whereby you know he served in the Iran rock war as a young man at the age of 17 through numerous campaigns and then he basically took up studies clerical studies religious studies at the seminaries in gong and then studied with a series of senior clerics but often called sources of emulation or grand Ayatollahs as well as his father and then it's claimed that he then towards what is known as Darsakharaj which is the most senior level of Islamic jurisprudence and he taught this for a number quite a few years but again in such cases quite difficult you know to really separate you know truth from some degree of let's just say

49:46hype this sort of exaggeration or so yeah we're still figuring out really who he is and I think the key thing to really grasp is that he's not well known to the Iranian public as such I mean unlike his father who like I said had this sort of precedent was known for at least you know well over a decade before he was elected as Iran supreme leader and would he have been chosen as the supreme leader had it not been for his father being killed you know if the Ayatollah Ali Hamani had just died of natural causes he was 86 of course would someone else have got this role I mean on the one hand obviously like dynastic succession is I mean a taboo in the Islamic Republic I mean historically it's been you know I mean Ayatollah Hamani famously in 1971 actually even wrote a really searing statement actually saying that Islam and sort of

50:50dynastic succession like monarchy were fundamentally incompatible so it's kind of been very much a taboo and then even during his lifetime when he was himself you know the first the founder of the Islamic Republic when he you know in his own lifetime when he was asked about his son Ahmad Khomeini maybe possibly succeeding him he absolutely kind of repudiated and dismissed it so it's been something of a taboo but I mean there's also been rumors that much of a harmony has been very powerful person behind the scenes for at least I can remember as early as 2005 so famously Mettikadobi who was a presidential kind of candidate for the 2005 and 2009 wrote a famous letter in which he basically alleged electro interference and he kind of he also he sort of claimed that much to Khomeini had played a very kind of important role backing one of the candidates namely Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who was then elected in 2005 so he's had like this powerful kind of role obviously in Iran system the supreme leader has a significant part in determining the six

51:56jurists who sit on the guardian council the guardian council then has the prerogative to then veto candidates who they deem unfit for office basically and it's going to disqualify them has this sort of power of what's called a probatory supervision and so the assembly of experts has simply gone through the same process so who can stand for the assembly of experts is also overseen by the guardian council that means the various kind of notable candidates who are Hassan Rohani so Hassan Rohani yes as well as Hassan Khomeini the grandson of Artur Khomeini haven't really haven't been able to actually stand in these elections so on the one hand you know it's very clear that Mahmoud Ahmadinej has been a very influential person clearly his father had had very much this idea that he would play a significant role in the state but I think because of the sort of ideological sort of yeah sort of foundations of the Islamic Republic it would have been quite difficult so I don't think it was a foregone conclusion that he was you know from 2005

52:59we can see it's an illuminate his father orchestrating the saw I think it's a bit more complex than so I do think that the war in particular I think the the the the the martyrdom of his father his wife his mother and his child and given sort of the very very significant kind of symbolic weight of martyrdom in Shia Islam and within the system I think you know these are all things which made his election far more probable also I mean the other thing is even more important in many ways is that he's always been close to the IOC and the security apparatus as well so given the fact that Iran is in the middle of a war it was always more likely that the IOC and also powerful centers within the system were going to support a candidate who was going to carry on in some sense the legacy of his father who was going to have a hard line in for instance and defending the countries and defenders and also you know and preserving the system the Islamic Republic I mean which so I think the war made it far more likely even though you could argue that he suddenly

53:59was being kind of nurtured to play a powerful role in Iranian politics and had been playing such a role but I think this made it far more probable because under the conditions of the war and where Donald Trump is basically saying that I should have a say and in determining who should be the next Supreme Leader Iran I think you know I'm more conciliatory candidate would have been obviously been perceived as a sign of weakness and capitulation and so on and so forth so I think you know again the section of most of the harmonies very much say no we're going to continue in the line of harmonies senior and it's very much in essence sort of giving a sort of middle finger to sort of Donald Trump and saying that they aren't going to be in a sense yes Sway not going to capitulate basically and they're going to carry on and inflicts you know it's going to have a significant price for the United States as well so I think yeah it's a complex kind of picture but yeah the longer short of it is that yeah absolutely I think that the war made it more likely clearly there's symbolism to this right it's saying Donald Trump you wanted to kill our leader

55:05and get someone more moderate or more accommodating and not only have we picked another hardliner he's literally got the same name as the guy you just killed so you've replaced one harmony with another harmony you can see the message there is strong to what extent do you think that's the main reason he's been picked because obviously you know he could have this job for the next 40 years and you know is there a danger that he hasn't been picked because he's going to be a particularly confident supreme leader and he's been picked for a sort of short term messaging purposes obviously the future is very uncertain but is there a possible danger there there's lots of dangers there I mean so for instance I think it's going to be profoundly alienating for many many Iranians who aren't going to I mean even if those who maybe accept the Islamic Republic but are more on maybe the centerite or the reformist wing of the political establishment I mean they're obviously going to be profoundly alienated I mean in the system I think that this is actually a violation of the basic foundations and principles of the Islamic Republic as I said I think

56:06that is a real kind of danger but I think the thing that we have to think about is that the Islamic Republic generally in times of crisis is what it does it tends to double down on the base on the real hardcore base so that's really the key thing because they understand that that's the that's the kind of the social base and the forces which are going to mobilize in the streets when they're called upon to they're going to mobilize and they're going to fight in in both the IRGC or the paramilitary or the paramilitary is the passage and they're the ones who are going to attend the Friday prayer sort of rallies and you know Jerusalem day, Wednesday and these sorts of things and they are in a sense the backbone of the system even if they are maybe we could say 15 to 20 percent at most you know maybe 15 percent even it's hard to really know but they are the significant base of the people that are going in revolution square right now they're the ones who are pledging their sort of pledge of allegiance to much of a harmony and so you know there's not a public and the elite that understands that these are the people that it can fundamentally count on

57:08but I mean the other point I think to bear in mind is that you know much of a harmony is not going to be ruling alone I mean and again we don't really know how long his tenure will last we really don't I mean the Israelis are basically vowed to assassinate him so we don't really know actually it's a very risky job that he's actually took chosen to take an op because he could last you be a barely a week or he could last much longer time but yeah I think that you know we have to see really you know the thing is because he has that public office we're not really sure how he's going to rule but I think you know the fact that he has genuinely operated in sort of smoke field bathrooms so to speak and hasn't been really subject much to the sort of the light of day and hasn't really been trained we don't really have much of an idea of how he actually operates I doubt that's really going to change and he might actually be you know living a kind of underground life for a while as well so that will see you know opens up another other series of questions but yeah I think I guess I think they've doubled down really on the core social base for the moment

58:12how that will obviously play out in the longer term we have to see I mean there are some of his supporters who are under the impression that he is going to be a big force fighting corruption and modernizing the system and all these sorts of things but again there's no track records so to speak so and the other thing like I have to say is that he's going to be like I said for a while he's going to be dependent not only on the I would you see in the security apparatus obviously but also kind of significant players so Adi Laryjani who's the head of the Supreme National Security Council Mahabharat Ghalibaf who's the Speaker of the Parliament so significant kind of players in the system he's going to have to kind of rely on them and their cooperation and going along and things like this but I think the revolution of God obviously was a big factor in this and the fact that there's an ongoing war I mean and they didn't want to really have division and disagreement at the top they really kind of also wanted to quickly choose a leader because they wanted to send a message clearly to the Israelis and the Americans that you know they have

59:13a leader there's a clear direction to the state and they're actually not going to be deterred or they're not going to be cowed by the ongoing war there are sort of questions or I suppose you know people looking on from the outside there's confusion about who who really is in charge right because I mean this this was most pronounced on Saturday morning the president Masoud Psekshkian sort of apologizes to the Gulf states and said you know we're going to stop aiming at your civilian infrastructure and then later in the day some of those Gulf states say well actually they are you're still shooting at us and lots of people's interpretations that the president didn't have much power in the IR GC weren't necessarily supportive of what he had publicly said to what extent does the Iranian regime seem quite divided at this point in time president Psekshkian I think he from what I understand and again we don't really know but I think I got the impression there was some people have circulated this idea that he did this on a rather ad hoc kind of basis and then he then came out later and actually said it was misinterpreted

1:00:15and misread and obviously in stating that I am I'm sure you sought Donald Trump quickly put out the truth social and they're saying oh yeah this is a sign of capitulation and so on and so forth so no I think that was really by more powerful elements within the system quickly kind of repudate of that idea and I think you know it's very clear he's not in the driving seat and he hasn't been I mean he wasn't even in the time of I told Ali Khamenei he's in the latter part after the June war after the June war Ali Loi joining me clearly and the IR GC were clearly in the driving seat and were clearly the main decision makers on national security I mean there's even sort of anecdotes where possession was our certain things and he actually said you know please refer to Ali Loi joining because he's the one who's ultimately deciding so I don't think it's divided I just think that the president is actually in the case of the war is actually marginalized and it's the Supreme National Security Council which Ali Loi joining is heading and of course in which sort of a major military figures and the speaker parliament and so on all staff they all sit on the Supreme National Security Council and they're making decisions with respect

1:01:20to the war I mean and they're the ones who have adopted this like mosaic posture sort of strategy where by even if it was senior officers in the chair and commander killed then basically those on the ground will continue and know they're basically their orders and will continue to actually fire or conduct the war as they've been instructed but yeah possessions not in the driver seat I don't really think that those who are making decisions are not divided but you know the broad political elite within Iran yeah of course I mean former presidents like you know Muhammad Khatemi or Hassan Rani and various others though you know Hassan Rani has sort of basically offered his congratulations to much to a Khamin A so we see many people kind of in the context of the war are showing themselves to be supporting the system supporting the state I mean the question always is like once the war ends and we don't know when that's going to happen then that's usually when contention and division and disagreement starts to really come to the surface and similarly at the level of society more broadly I mean again we're seeing a kind of a strong front in many ways

1:02:22especially as many have realized that this war is not a war of quote-unquote liberation it's really having devastating effects for the entirety of the society many sort of you know they're standing behind the state or if not they're basically obviously definitely not welcoming this sort of active aggression but then obviously once that once the dust settles that's when usually when you'll see the discriminatory coming out but yeah I don't think Paseh Ghan is a player I mean it really isn't a significant figure and he hasn't been for quite a while that was a Skanda Sadeghi speaking to me earlier today and thank you all for watching this evening come back tomorrow for an analysed dream from 6pm but now you've been watching the Varamedia. Good night. This broadcast is brought to you by Varamedia go to nvaramedia.com slash support