NO RATE HIKE IN SEPTEMBER: Chris Waller

0:00This episode is brought to you by Pal Molliv. Family time isn't just the big moments. It's weeknight dinners, sitting around the table, everyone talking all at once. So when the plates are empty and the sink is full, use Pal Molliv Ultra. Pal Molliv's most powerful formula removes up to 99.9% of grease, leaving your dishes sparkling clean, and the new convenient pump makes cleaning even easier, so you can spend less time tackling dishes and more time together. Shop now at PalMolliv.com. Well, it looks like the Fed is sending out Christopher Waller to talk down rate hike odds. What do I mean by that? Well, as of yesterday, rate hike odds in September approached 63%. This morning, after Christopher Waller spoke, they are now 48%. That is a pretty significant drop. What did Christopher Waller have to say? Well, frankly, a lot.

1:01And we will go through a series of his quotes and talk about them first and foremost. Christopher Waller is leaning towards keeping rates steady, basically saying continued progress to our 2% goal is reason enough to hold. However, he did say if we got a hot print, he would consider raising hikes. Now what does that really mean? Because again, given the base effect, given year on year numbers, the chance that the CPI reading coming down are very low, just mathematically speaking. But Christopher Waller slipped this in there. This following caveat is really important to understand. Christopher Waller will not be looking at the year on year number instead. He will be looking at the three month, three month inflation gauge.

2:01What is that? Basically, he said, and I quote, I don't want to put a number on it, but 2.8% and we are fine. I don't want to put a number on it, but here's a number. That's probably not going to make wars very happy. Wars doesn't like forward guidance like that. But again, Christopher Waller basically saying, look at the last 90 days, if the last 90 days annualized, so take whatever the last three months are multiplied by four, that will be the run rate for the last 90 days. And if that is under 2.8%, he is comfortable holding. If not, if it's hotter than that, then he will likely support a fed rate increase. Christopher says, and again, I quote, given disinflation, I'm sorry, give, not given, give, give disinflation, the chance, we can wait one more meeting.

3:01Again, Kevin is talking about kicking the can down the loan to October. For which I say, you can't wait till October, Kevin, you can wait till December, sure, but not October. The fed raises rates in October. They will be accused of all kinds of political interference and yada yada yada. There's 0% chance that you guys raise in October. So let's not get it twisted. Let's at least speak reality here. Christopher Waller says, don't want to raise rates into disinflation. Basically tariffs, war, all of these things have been causing inflation. Obviously, Christopher Waller is of the opinion that disinflation is starting to pick up. That rate setting could get us back to 2% Christopher. If that were true, you would be back near 2%. It's been, what is it? 58 months. You guys have failed at your job. 58 months, Kevin.

4:01That's not a good look, sir. In fact, anybody else misses their job for 58 months. They're probably getting fired. But hey, you do you. In street America, not seeing loose conditions that I agree with again, I think if you look at home loans, auto loans, credit cards, small business loans, not really going gangbusters. What is well, everything to do with AI data center tech, all of those, we will get some earnings data here in a minute. And again, it's very much the AI trade. So again, Kevin Warsh, going out, talking down September rate hike. It worked clearly, went from 63% to 48%. There was actually a bunch more Fed speakers today. I guess they're at a conference or a panel or something. So we'll see if Kevin or Christopher Waller is the exception. We'll see if others are more aggressive. We will likely report on that on Sunday when we do the daily financial news. Yesterday, we got the Fed-Baj book.

5:02What is the Fed-Baj book? Well, it's essentially the summary of the 18 Fed districts. And basically looking at each individually and then summarizing them, aka the Baj book. Price increases moderately in eight of the districts with two districts reporting modest increase. Again, you got to be very, very subtle with the vocabulary here. Employment rose very slightly overall. So again, prices generally speaking up, the labor market is solid looking at the Baj book. Mortgage rates yesterday closed at 6.91. Could we see 7% sometime in September? Yes, absolutely possible. Did you know? Last year, mortgage rates were 6.53. So probably not as low. I thought they'd be lower year on year. So it's really not that big of an increase. What is that? Like 38 basis points, something like that. So again, interesting.

6:03Got an interesting update on Austin real estate market. Again, single family market. Again, Austin has been taken into teeth down 20% or so from the peak. Given what I read yesterday, the homes are selling 28% faster in Austin now. Inventory is down 11%. Expired listings have crashed 81%. So again, it looks like the Austin real estate market is healing itself or maybe even you could say healed itself. And now they're putting in a solid foundation from which they can build from. All right, let's get into a bunch of tech earnings and a couple of non tech. We'll start out with Broadcom, Broadcom, Beat Top Line, Bottom Line, Barely. And also gave a very weak forecast. They did highlight that anthropic is on track to become the largest XPU customer. I wonder, I really wonder how many tech companies, either open AI or anthropic are the largest

7:10customers. I bet there's a lot of them. That's not a very, if the entire tech sector is up because of two companies, insatiable desire to spend, I'm not sure that's a great thing. But anyways, let me know what you think in the comments below. Snowflake, Beat Top Line, Bottom Line, and Raised Guidance. Again, their death of software was greatly exaggerated. Software companies are crushing it, frankly. Here's a non tech company, Campbell Soup. Campbell Soup actually came out with a very weak forecast. I don't know if you guys have studied history long enough, but Campbell Soup used to be a depression indicator. When Campbell Soup was growing, it was sign of recession or depression. When Campbell Soup was weak, it was a sign of a growing economy. Again, I do not know if this holds true today, but historically speaking, Campbell Soup

8:10was one of those indicators. Is the economy weakening or is it strengthening? And again, if it's similar to the past, a weak Campbell Soup means the consumers are doing okay. We'll see if that holds true going forward. More tech earnings, NetApp, Beat Top Line, Bottom Line, and Raised Guidance. Are we just, I mean, like, what is going on in tech? Everybody's Beat Top and Bottom and Raising Guidance. It's crazy. Two more. C3 AI, Beat Top Line, Bottom Line, but did not raise expectations. And finally, HPE or Healed Packer Enterprise, Beat Top Line, Bottom Line, and of course, Guidance. One more earnings, NONTECH, five below. Once again, Beat Top Line, Bottom Line, and Raised Guidance. Double digit, same store, sales for five below. Then the last thing I noted in the reading were some really depressing numbers about real

9:12estate agents. Guys, let's do a little guessing game to hear. We're live right now. There's 59 amazing people here. Live with us. We're being here. If you watch on the replay, you too can play along. But here's a question for you. What percent of licensed real estate agents have done zero transactions in 2026? Go ahead. Let me know in the comments below. I will riff for a little while. But I want to see what you guys think. What percent of licensed real estate agents have done zero transactions in 2026? We're eight months into the year. We got one guest at 80, 65, 78. You guys are good at this. 70, 70. All right. You guys are doing great. So the answer is, let's see. Anybody really close? Yeah. Delilah Perez.

10:14I'm not sure if I'm saying that right. Looks like you're the closest. The answer is 84% of licensed real estate agents have done zero transactions in the year. One to four. So you've done one, two, three, or four transactions. That is 8%. So 92, 92% of agents have done less than four or less transactions. Again, 8% doing one to four. Five to nine, four percent. Ten to 19, two percent, and finally 20% or more, two percent. I'm sorry, 20 transactions or more, two percent. So again, interesting stuff to look at. All right, folks, obviously we have the best everyday wealth building community in school called Orat. Want to thank Kanye or sorry, Kean, Kean, I think, for joining.

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