NFL Week 1 preview & bold predictions: Josh Allen's worst nightmare, Baker vs. Burrow barnburner

0:00This episode football 3-1 Matt Harmon joins me to preview week one baby. We are here. We look at some of the best matchups from week one. We throw up Hail Mary's at the very end with some bull takes. We have a hot fight. We have a pedal to the metal where we predict an offense that's perfectly set up to pop off this weekend. At the beginning of the show, we review some Wednesday night football opening action. Seahawks 13 Patriots 10, three interceptions from Drake May, big plays from JSN. We covered it all me and Matt Harmon. It was a great show. Hope you guys enjoy. See you guys in a second. Some of my best memories growing up were at live NFL games. The Randy Moss fake moon game at Lambo Field. That was a fun one or the Seattle Mariners and Alchemy. You guys or the double with Edgar Martinez have a lot of great memories with sporting events. And you can too. If you need to get live tickets to a live NFL game or any sporting event this fall, you should. And the best place to do it is game time.

1:01The game time app has tickets to the college football and NFL matchups that turn into unforgettable memories. Just looking through game time, there are so many awesome moments waiting to happen this season, just like every NFL season. Just week one, we have the Patriots at Seattle facing the Seahawks and the season opener and a super bowl rematch at Lumen Field. We got games that are international. We got huge matchups between star quarterbacks and you know, some run games too. If you're into that kind of thing, the game time lets you buy tickets and just a few taps. You can get a panoramic view from your seat in the app before you buy and they have the lowest price guarantee. So you know, you're getting an amazing deal. So go get your tickets, get your buddies together and tell them it's game time. Download the game time app, create an account and use FB 301 for $20 off your first purchase terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem code FB 301 for $20 off. Download the game time app today. Welcome back to football 301. I am your host Nate Ties football 301 is presented by Toyota, the official

2:06automotive partner of the NFL who's giving football fans more ways to watch play and win all season long and football is back and football discourses back and it's wonderful, baby. Even if I'm a victim of it, even if I'm getting shots to the face, but today we're going to recap that Wednesday night entertaining game. I'll call it frog fight between the sea oxen patriots and then our first preview episode of the 2026 NFL season. We will preview a few games and week one and man to help me do that. Who I'm so excited will be joining me on these Thursday preview shows. My guy, Mr. Matt Harmon, how you doing today? Matt great to see you. Good to see you too, man. Yeah, football is back. I've got way too many tabs open. Gonna try to sort through that over the course of this show. I am like 15 minutes late to this show because I'm filing a five over reactions to the first game of the season piece. So yeah, we're so back, baby.

3:06I'm also, you know, listen to my body's not ready. Sleep schedule wise for football Wednesday night game. But you know what? All that being said, I'm feeling so good, dude. I'm ready to I'm ready for the show and I'm fired up. I'm too. Yeah, it was nice. I even said to the producers before the show. It's like it was nice get my body clock reset. It's like, oh, yeah, the float. My I knew what I like I woke up on Wednesday knowing what I was doing. It's like, oh, fantasy show with you prepping for my preview show on Thursday. Not panic and about a article yet because I bought a little grace because of my big board. Make sure to check that out. Make sure to check out Matt stuff as well. Yeah. And before we get into preview and if you haven't done so yet, join a leak here at Yahoo at Yahoo dot com slash fantasy. You're almost there. Wait, we're right there. So by time you listen to this right right right there into the week one. But before we get to week one in the previews for that, well, let's get to the first game of week one, the one 16th point of week one. We had the Patriots Seahawks season opener in Seattle last night. We had Richard Sherman hyping up the crowd.

4:07A cam chancellor hyping up the crowd. Legion of boom. Seahawks defense brought the boom. Unfortunately, Sam Darnold had a little injury right on that first drive, which was a little disappointing. So we got a lot of drew lock and all the entertaining aspects of drew lock. Almost at a backwards pass, we had him checking the wristband 14 times before taking the delay of game. Mm, never changed drew lock. Thank you for that entertainment. Drake may had a game, a lot of check downs. And then every time you went down the field, it was not fun for Drake May, which we will talk about. I'm sure AJ Brown also leaves with the injury, but I believe is getting reported as a high ankle sprain, which as we know on football 301 is how long guys four to six weeks, four to six weeks is that that's what that injury is. So I will see you at Halloween, AJ Brown. That's when I know you will be back. We can get it on to this Mike McDonald, though. I thought pitch another just beautiful game. That is why I think he is the best defensive play car going right now.

5:08One of the best in the league. He is fricking incredible. Even with backups, EBS, new guys, new faces, those guys were playing strong playing smart. Again, we'll talk about all that and the three interceptions from Drake May. Don't you guys worry. I'll touch on those as well. But I want to get your takeaways from that game, Matt Harmon, because I, I even with all the discourse out there, there's a lot of interesting stuff going on, even with the injuries and the stuff going on with the made them right now. But what did you think about game one of the 2026 season? It's so many things to pull on here. I thought this is a fantastic opening game, really interesting on both sides of the ball. And you know, like I said, I just wrote a five overreaction species, which was sort of as usual for me, kind of blending real life and fantasy football here. By the way, speaking of yes, signing up for a fantasy league, you sign up for a fantasy league right now. You, you avoid the Brock Bauer's disaster. You can, you don't have to drop the AJ Brown at the top 20. Yeah. Look at that. Maybe if you are skeptical about J.S. that dobs dark throws. Yeah.

6:08Yeah. If you're skeptical about J.S. then keeping it up without Sam Darnell for a long stretch here, you can just avoid all that. Look at that. You just don't have to avoid any of this stuff. That's great. But yeah, my first thought is, and I know you, and I think you and Robert did a show about this on, on 301 in the off season. I was thinking coming out of this game, like how many offensive play callers, what I go through before I got to Mike McDonald in like a league wide draft. If I'm just drafting play callers, play calling head coaches, right? Because man, it might be like two or three. I don't know. My God, man, he's so good. That's the Hawk's defense is so good. You know, again, I know on fantasy Twitter, you got to take shots at Remundri Stevenson. That's like part of, you know, that's how you get your member card to go in the initiation. It's, yeah, it's how you get your member card to go on viral on fantasy Twitter. I get that. But I'm like, dude, what do you want this guy to do last night? I mean, last season, Seattle gave it 3.7 yards per carry on running back runs, which was the lowest in the NFL.

7:09They were, they were the only team under 4.0 when they had seven or fewer defenders in the box. Last night, 18 carries with running backs with seven or fewer defenders in the box. And they averaged a 37 yards on those carries, did the New England Patriots point negative, 0.06 yards before contact per run on those plays with seven or fewer defenders in the box. Like, man, obviously what they do on the back end is crazy, you know, from a disguise coverage is and everything. But like, they're just going to kick your ass up front. And like, you want to run the football against Seattle. You're probably not going to, but if you want to, you better pack a lunch. Just how many guys were unblocked like so at the second level. That means the siakshard gaming them up in some way, shape or form. I haven't rewatched the run game yet. I do want to watch my Eli Rarrow in in the run games. Yeah, how he did as a blocker. I think he did okay from TV copy. And the one split zone, you know, which was the day that was a, that was a, that didn't look great. But otherwise, yeah. Yeah, that, uh, hand on, hey, first touchdown, a plus 5,500.

8:11If you had that ticket, maybe I do. Uh, but no, I do think that you're exactly right. Like the, the, the, we make the jokes, the goblins, the orcs, the sea hawks have up there. They just rotate them through and they kick your ass. And that's exactly what they did. If you're not strapped up, if you're not on your pees and cues, they're going to take a advantage of you. And they, I mean, they did it constantly. There, there's a couple runs, the Patriots snuck through. But how many times they ran to the boundary and it just can blow up, like, immediately, like no one had an angle. Two guys are going to beat. And this is, I actually did think Will Campbell actually played okay, um, which is, you know, usually the guy that gets highlighted, like there was aspects where they did okay. But that's the best you're probably going to do against the siak's defenses. Okay. Like that's, that's, that's really in the feeling. Like even like thrown to ball wise, like, um, like success rate wise was decent for me. Before going into that first pick, it is 61.5% success rate for 92 yards, I think at that point. But the thing is that's the best you're going to do against this defense. It's so hard to generate explosives. It's by design.

9:11You have to scramble. You have to just take it and like, if you can sustain a drive and maybe get one explosive, you're just happy. So it is like, I mean, McDonald's, Mike McDonald's 14 and O with when he has a turnover advantage in a game. But yeah, but also too, this was the, I think the most disappointing thing. And that was right, right away, it was probably the second, third down of the game was Doug Marone should have to walk back to Boston from from Seattle, the offense line coach for the Patriots. That was my biggest talking point after that Super Bowl was how their old staple protections got abused. And then they got abused again. And how I know they get abused is like, there should never be a free runner in the run game. There should never be a free runner in the past game, unless it's an empty protection, well, empty, meaning five man protection. That's like the only time. So if there's free runners constantly, stuff is not going right. And that first, third down or second, third down of the game right away. They actually liked what the Patriots did. She changed into tight end over moving the running back kind of trying to change the keys for the defense.

10:14And the three Cocks defenders when they did it all signal to each other right away. And I was like, oh my God, they're all over this stuff. And they literally run protection breakers. And if you want more in depth stuff, I and visuals check out my timeline on Twitter on this. But really what they're doing is just overloading the tight end side. Like they noticed that the Patriots had a tight end in the back field and a running back in the back field. So seven man protection, typically. And that's another thing. Josh McDaniel has had no change ups off of that. So it's like, okay, so if you have those such a heavy tell off of that, the Cocks are checking into certain blitzes. And they got them twice. One may just had to run over to the side and on that first, they're down. And then on the last drive, he took a two yard sack where he ran out of bounds. Same exact thing happened. And it's just an overload. And the fact that the Patriots had no change up in the second time it happened. They had no adjustment for it. It was just like, what are you guys doing here? Like you can't just like roll the ball out and go and expect the like the rules to be okay. Like Mike McDonald is now proven. He breaks your rules.

11:14So you have to adjust. That's what game planning is all about. So very frustrated on that aspect in that regard, but also a credit to Mike McDonald who to answer me. But as I kick it to you, I have, we had him at third. At the very least he's like the top five to me are McVeigh, not in any order. The McVeigh, Shane, and McDonald, Ben Johnson and Vic Fangio. Those are the five for me right now. That's right. And yeah. And I think he McDonald's never going to go away from the top three. Like I think he's locked in as long as he wants to coach for. Yeah. I almost wanted to like lead off with that question about Mike McDonald and like praising the Seahawks defense for how good they were, especially up front, stopping the run and everything like that because I think like I want to want to want to give them a lot of credit for this because it's a huge caveat. When we talk about the Patriots that like this is probably the best defense and the league and you lost your number one receiver with 14 minutes left and in the third quarter, you know, for sure, that obviously stinks. That being said, this was, this was a brutal brutal watch.

12:17I come away with this like really worried about the Patriots offense. And I already was kind of worried coming into the year. And then so maybe this is a little bit of like confirmation bias. But it's a lot of what you just talked about there. You know, the schedule got like a, it came out almost a boogey man and a punchline for the Patriots last year. But Nate, I am starting to think to myself, like, is this offense just a bad team beater and doesn't have the answers to the test when we're going against good defenses? I'm, I'm starting to wonder about that. And we'll talk like I'm sure the people want you to vlog yourself for the, you know, Drake May Interceptions and the whole deal. And we'll get to that. We'll get to that in a second. Don't you guys, don't you guys worry. I'm a massive kiss. We're good. We'll get there. Good, good, good. Because I mean, I wanted to say like credit to Drake May for finding some check downs and, you know, getting some timely scrambles to keep things moving, getting out of the pocket the whole deal. But it's like, okay, that's not, that's not enough to beat a great team. It's certainly not enough to beat an elite team on the road. You know, when they're coming, like coming off the highs and winning a soup bowl. And yeah, this is the last freaking game you guys played the last freaking game we, we saw.

13:18And they kind of just like you said, ran the ball out there like they did last time. I linked to your protection plan stuff in my piece because I shared the same notes there. It was just like unbelievable that that we went with that again. And I would say in the passing game, even before AJ Brown went down, you know, this was one of my concerns with, with just what this, what, what it was going to look like with him from not even just what he looks like as a player. You know, because I talked to you about like the K-Shon Booty and Kyle Williams profiles on RP from last year. How those were two of the four guys over the last 12 years of me charting receivers who have lined up 90% outside and on the line of scrimmage and ran go routes at the third and fifth highest rate of any receiver that I've ever charted. I don't know what AJ Brown's go route rate was. I haven't like charted this game back on a chart like a half a football for AJ Brown. Anyways, but he was outside on 94% of his routes last night. He was outside on 100% of his routes, all 12 of them when they went to 11% L. I mean, it was pretty much just like we're going to run back exactly what we did last year, but we have a talent advantage now at X receiver in AJ Brown as opposed to K-Shon Booty.

14:26And I like, I just don't think that's good. I don't think that's good enough. Obviously it's not going to be good enough now with AJ Brown not in there. And then yes, six week injury when he gets back, he's not going to be himself every football player you ever talk to says, like, take some minute to get going again. Once you come off that high ankle sprain. So I'm really concerned about that part of it. And also just another note too, or talking receiver usage. You mentioned Romeo Dobbs, who I mean, he had a bad night. He had a, let me just, he drops like the one play that might have been their, what their loan explosive design of the Patriots the entire night. It was the one time they changed up the protection. It's called dash pass. The Broncos run out a lot. But yeah, that was the one change up that worked beautifully and he drops. Yeah. And then drops it. And then, and then they throws an exception to the game completely turns on that. Like we might be talking about something different. If that doesn't happen. So obviously he had a rough night, but even beyond that, like he was kind of a rotational player with Mac Hollins in the first half anyways. And I was posting about this last night. I mean, it's got to, it's like the biggest run, run pass tell that going right now is like Mac Hollins is on the field.

15:30He was 18, get 18 snaps in the first half, which was second among the wide receivers. He was fourth in routes. And it was even more stark when you looked at them like when they'd spread the field, too. It's just I'm mystified by this receiver usage. I'm just like, what was the point of signing Romeo dobs? And you know, again, this is what was weird about this team is like, dobs played really well. And you and I talked about this as an outside on ball receiver for the Packers last year. And then in this game, he's kind of a rotational Z with Mac Hollins and moving around the form. He's almost like Stefan Diggs and he's not Stefan Diggs. It's very bizarre. Again, I'm probably over reacting to week one, the very first game. But man, I came away with a lot of bad vibes about what the Patriots did, like results aside, plan and design was on offense last night. I just I give him the benefit of the doubt there. Like, oh, they're going to add some new stuff to the two what they did last year. That was just to get on board. But it was like, this was my issues when Josh Daniels was with Vegas.

16:31Was that it was just like, he's running like these there, they're, it's very sound offense. Yes, it's stupid and all that. It's not a stupid offense. It's very sound is not inventive. There is no creativity in this offense. Even the flea flickers, the most staple flea flicker you've ever seen in your life. Also, AJ Brown released the receivers kind of were brutal last night. They, they AJ Brown released early on that one. Like, they always happens on a flea flicker. Like, their receiver gets so antsy, he's so excited. And then they release early. But that it that play flea flickers are usually not called inside the 40. And they called that at the 36 because they're like, we like this, which it worked. And but that's why as you see exactly why is the quarterback. Courtax are always going on to throw flea flickers. It's just just how it goes. Trust me, I've seen a billion flea flickers in my life. But it's just at the 36, you have to get that ball up and down. So you catch and you have to get it up and down. So that's why I was under thrown and everything. But also like, look at Romeo dobs. So he only had three out routes.

17:31Romeo dobs is out route master only one corner route. Like that, that's like, why not? If you're going to have them and you're going to have them on the outside at least, but run the routes that he's good at, run the out routes and May has the orb to throw those. I, I, I was very disappointed. I was high on the Patriots offense. I like the signs they made. I like the draft picks they made. I thought I saw the philosophy like for year two of this regime with May and what they, what they have right now. And I just, that was just like, Oh, you guys were just doing the same old stuff. And you're just going to say, Oh, yeah, we'll out execute you. X is knows and mail make us right. And it's like, you need in this modern game, especially that defense, like at the very worst, the second best defense in the league right now. Like I'm going to be this year and you just do have nothing imaginative. Like that's just, it's so disappointing. Like, and that's the most the Cocks run. I don't know if it's just a Cocks. I would say any team runs cover six is against this Patriots team last year. Superbowl in this in week one. I don't have the exact stat next year and stats at it.

18:32Um, or friend Keegan Abdu. But that is because cover six, if you're going to be a very traditional offense, like you just said, A.G. Brown's always on the outside, cloud his side, all that stuff. You know, like it just, uh, it's like they just know like you're not threatening Mike McDonald anyway, shape or form. So, um, let me talk about the picks because I know everybody wants that. Uh, pick number one for like this was the problem. Hit us right before that play. Hit us 61 and a half percent success rate Drake may on dropbacks. I like under 100 yards, but they're, that's what the Cocks defense wants you to do. They push real deep and they force a check down and then they have a bunch of bands. She's running down. They swarm tackle you. That is by design. You have to attack underneath on them and they're betting quarterbacks are going to go. I, I got to chuck this because I've just been checking it down. I'll drive and guess what happened? Drake may get antsy. He has three straight play actions. We're on that drive, I think where he's checking down, checking down, checking down. And then they have this big shot play when they cross the 50, I think. And it's just the wheel route and he saw cover two to that side.

19:35So he's like, oh, I can throw a whole shot here because finally, but no, no, the safety was not threatened at all way over the top. And then you're throwing a jump ball to Romeo of dobs because you can tell his brains like, well, I got to make this throw work because I'm not committed on it. And then just throws a just a terrible decision on that one. I thought that was him getting antsy. Airception two was a cruel scheme one. The Patriots were on 99, which I've talked about before. That's two go routes on the outside. The eight route by pop Douglas or a tight end is a, it's a middle read route. It's called. So if it's too high, then like cover two or quarters or cover six, that middle route runs right down the middle. If there's no safety there, you run to space. If it's single high, they break and run a dig route. You know, if there's a deep safety is typically called a post defender, you don't run a post against a post defender because they're guarding the post. So you just break across the sea hawks ran one of their third and long changeups and it's called three double cloud. And this is why we must fight against sky net and AI is because that

20:36was that coverage was covered was charted as cover six. And I people just keep going. It's not cover six. It's like, nope, it's called three double cloud. And then what three double cloud is and I wish I had a nice visual here, but I can't use stills on all 22, but three double cloud is like a preset cover two. So you have two flat defenders, you know, jamming or funneling the outside receivers. You have two deep half players, but instead of that mic linebacker, like Brian or Lacka running deep into the middle half or middle third, I should say the poll defender. I should that's what's called. Carstage Wishingers really get at it. That there's a safety that kicks over in this one. It was Julian love who made the pick and he's that middle pole defender. So that he's playing top down as opposed to bottom up, you know, and this version of it. But if you hear three double cloud is kind of a, it's an oxymoron because it's three, but also as a cover two principles. So a 99, how do you read that? Do you read that as cover two and split it or do you break it across the safety space because it's covered three technically or three safeties deep?

21:37You're supposed to break it across the face. So I'm not sure if may sought, but I know pop Douglas. Didn't see it or was confused and kind of going like he kind of like throttles. You kind of kind of does both. He doesn't really break and he doesn't run right down the scene. And Julian love is cheated over and just makes a great play on it. But three double cloud. I'm introducing it. Yeah. That's a, that's a coverage. And I did this professionally. This is why you need the human eyes, but that's, that was a nice little change up from it. And the CX have run in the past, but that one was like, that was a cool scheme thing for me because I was like, ah, that's always the conundrum on that. Three double cloud. Do you break across or you go deep? And then the intercepted three that ended the game. Throwed away, that throwed away, throwed away, throwed away. Like there's other issues with that play. Don't get me wrong. The tackles, it was quick game. Actually, now that I look back on it, the tackles cut, but because the tackles are cutting, the quarterback is taught. All right. If it's not there of your confused, check it down or throw it away like because they're cutting. And on that, though, Mac Holland's, when I talk about the receivers,

22:38a brutal from a, he takes an inside release on a fade with an out route coming towards him. And the, you've heard of MLR, right? Must outside release. Yeah. You must outside release must out must not maybe must outside release. Because if you go inside, it looks just how it looked on that play by Mac Holland. So that was, there was just a trickle down. It was just don't make a bad play worse. He goes inside the place dead because you either check it down or throw it away, but may feel an antsy after having a nice drive just, you know, ends the game right there. But one last thought, Gidaring price looked good for the Seahawks. And Jason, I don't know if you've heard of him. He's still pretty good. I don't know if your thoughts on that. But did you think price and Jason look good? Just too quickly. And I won't be long on this just on the three picks. Yeah, I would say the last one was, I told you with the on the Mac, I'll say, you can't, can't do that. That's that's the worst one. The second one you're the quarterback. Great point. Yeah, you can't do that.

23:38Come on. And this is, by the way, this is what the Seahawks want. They want you to do this. They want, they want you to just like get impatient and get antsy. And he basically played right into their hands on the first, the first and the third one is what my criticism would be. The second one, it's a great point about tomorrow, Douglas. And this is why I keep come back as receiver thing. Like he is, I always called him a bit of a weird slot receiver because he's better against man coverage than zone coverage. And typically if you want your slot to like read these things out and be settling in the right places, it's like, I can't, look, I think Douglas is a nice player and he was absurdly productive against man coverage as a rotational player last year. And then he's running the second most routes behind AJ Brown in the first half. Like I kind of just confused as to why we've come back to this. It's very, very bizarre on that one. And he, it's exactly what you highlighted there. Like you've got a cut, cut across the defender on that one. And he's just, he's better in these like the techy routes with the man coverage. Yeah. You know, it's, yeah, it's fine. But he, that's why it's like nice when it's your fourth receiver, not so great. Yes, your primary slot and you're running 11 and all this whole thing.

24:39And then yeah, the first one like, if you're going to, if you're going to do this with dobs, like throw it on the outside, throw it to the outside shoulder. Yep. I don't lead him back inside. It just, it was weird. He just threw up some lollipops and, and you can't do that when you're the quarterback and against this defense. They're going to make you pay. They're going to make you pay his armors perfectly fine. By the way, is it's like I watch it back. Like his armors perfectly fine. So may does a real nice job. I'm glad you feel that way because I don't feel, I didn't feel that way last night. Oh, no, it was just circumstance. Like we just didn't really get to see him rip his usual routes. Like he doesn't throw any of those benders, those digs, that's his circumstances. But the man coverage thing is right. Tomorrow, Doug is 32 routes, 29 rigged zone, the current indexing stats, three against man. So you got a man beater running nothing against, and you know that to see how it's run. And you know that you know, you know that that's what comes back. It's just the coaching thing. It's seven months to game plan for this. That's why I'm so frustrated. I know. I gave him the benefit of the doubt. I was like, they have the hubris, you know, they are lack of hubris. They have some self awareness and they're going to, they're going to learn from their mistakes.

25:40Nope, which is, yeah. So I'll be keeping an eye on the raining head coach of the year and assistant coach of the year. And long time, often, line coach, who's been a head coach in the NFL and multiple stops. I'll be looking at that one. Keep it up. Jason, you just want to put, just put the period on your JSN point. Awesome to see like, him move around again. I thought Brian Florey really settled into the, into the game, especially in the second half. And in 11 personnel, like I highlighted how AJ Brown was outside on every single route. It was like about 43% in 11 personnel, 43% outside inside and then 14% in the back field for JSN, according to student response. Like I love to see that they were weaponizing him. Like, that's what you do when you have your backup quarterback in. It's a tough defensive secondary. So yeah, shout out to, I thought Brian Florey did a nice job in the, in the kind of second half of the game, weaponizing your best player. I was, I know I read the stat off on this show, 36% target share for JSN last season was the most among any receivers since at least 2015, one of 18 guys that were over 30% and last

26:4390 and a 46% target share. Amazing. Hey, hey, turn that dial up. I like the JSN dial. It seems to be work. I love that the gimmie for the Florey was like, Hey, you know, lock is all over his eyes are all over the place. I'm going to put JSN in the freaking back field and have around a choice. You'll see that because that is the easiest play for the QB. That's the easiest play for the QB because you're only looking at that one. Like you own, okay, I only know choice routes here. I know Drew Lock and throw that choice routes. So yeah, that was, it was an entertaining game for 13. So I really will say and, and, and getting doused in some Twitter comments all night. So it was fun. But let's dive in to our first game of week one. We're going to get lost in the sauce. All right, bills at Texans. Texans are one and a half point underdogs at home. Wow. And this is a Sunday 1 p.m. game on the East Coast. And now when bills are on offense, this is our first ossified of the season.

27:49You know, I could say it's the bills all line versus the Texas defense. But I'm just going to say it's Josh Allen against the Texans defense because that's what it kind of feels like. Because Josh Allen's had some rough goes against this Texas defense the last two times they played. Some real rough goes the last two times these two, these teams played. If you look at week 12, 2025, Josh Allen versus the Texans, 31% success rate in that game took eight sacks, two interceptions, eight sacks was obviously a career high. Pressured 15 times went two for six for 11 yards and then week five in 2024, 31.4% success rate. Barely 0.01 EPA per dropback when 9 of 30 for 131 passing yards. So all of the four worst games in terms of success rate, excluding Josh Allen's rookie year when he was just a wild horse, excluding that year. Two of the four worst games have been the last two games against the Texans. The other two were week four in 2024 against the Ravens and week 14, 2019 also against the Ravens.

28:53But this first ossified mad Harmon. What do you got? What do you what do you focus on? What what what what what what what what what excites you and what do you want to see from both of these sides? Well, look, I mean, I think this lens in really well to the first test of what the bills think is going to fix their offense this year, which is basically like they think it's going to be DJ more. They think adding DJ more to the mix here is going to fix this passing game and we're going to get a great test in week one. Because I know you have you have a stat on this like when the Texans have faced this bill's team of late. They're like, we don't respect these wide receivers. You mentioned it's 2024 and 2025. These last two matchups against the Texans. Guess what the bills hadn't had in 2024 and 2025. Any good receivers that can get open on the perimeter. Yeah. So they're just like, hey, we've got great cornerbacks. We're just going to man up against your receivers. We're going to be in their hip pocket all game. I'm just speaking of Mac Collins, the 2024 matchup just like it's it's Mac Collins and Keon Coleman running a bunch of routes on the boundaries.

29:54Like these guys are not getting a frickin lick a separation all day long. So the thing I do like about DJ more is gaming. If I think he's not, you know, the exact player that he was the peak of his powers in Carolina, he still runs go routes really well. He still runs deeper stop routes really well. And he can get open on a quick slant against man coverage and like pin the ball on him. And he can run after the catch. So that's been their theory is like, that's the one move that they made. I know they like Skylar Bell and they're going to make some schematic tweaks here and there. I'm actually entered to see what you know, the guys from the interior like Dalton, Kate and Cluel Shakir can do in this game. But basically their plan has been we're going to add DJ more. We're going to fix the passing game and it's a move that I really talked to myself. I liked when they traded for him. But the more I like looked at his route tree and what I think is going to fit with this offense, the more I kind of talked myself into, I know you and I had a discussion about that on the show. We're going to get a great testament here in the first game because this day have been the like the Texas on the type of team that's been able to put the spotlight on the biggest weakness for the bills the last two years and really highlight it.

30:56And if you look, the Texans defense did not respect any of those receivers when they played before. Like even last year 42% of the dropbacks were in man coverage, which is second highest rate for the Texans last year. And that's where that's why you bring in DJ more is hey, like get beat one of these guys. But we'll see if that I mean the Texans might just live in that again. So hey, we'll prove it. We have two really good corners and maybe we can just take it away. I know there's a lot of things that I'm curious about. I know Joe Brady wants to start out his, you know, first game probably was some new ideas. I mean, the last ones on him or at least that was the game he was calling the year before that was Dorsey didn't then two years ago, like Keon Coleman was not like a brutal game from Keon Coleman to I remember he had like a like there was like a now throw that he like I think he like hopped up like a volleyball. Where he that happened a couple times where he dropped in the ball went up in the air. Like I think that that's that's a play that remembers my that lives in my memory. I'm with this bill's offense to I'm just curious kind of personality.

31:58Try it out like do they keep their hip formations. They try to go heavy or they can live a multi tight ends because in the preseason. I thought their best stuff was out of 11 personnel out of condensed splits, which I thought was interesting. But also like the Texans because they play in so much for down like I just want to see what their new wrinkle is for the bills. Like because I think run game wise and theory they should have some answers. But that's really hard to is that Texans like you're going to have to throw. They're going to pin their ears back. You got a new left guard and I just think it's just going to be some some rock fights here. And Josh just hasn't had really great games against this. And you have they have the team speed to handle them as a scrambler, you know up front and on the back end. So like that you take that away as well. They've team speed, you know, just the match with anybody going vertical that two years ago. That's where you really felt it when there was Matt Collins and Keon Coleman that bills. Offence just felt so tight. But I just want to see those those new wrinkles are are they going to be lean in the heavy. Are they going to be more pass heavy?

32:59Are they going to be using tempo with pages and use tempo last night? I was actually surprised. Are they going to be using some of that? Are they? I mean, like because even if living in tight ends, the Texans were the second best team against tight ends last year. Just per EPA. So again, it's just I'm trying to pull threads of like how I attack this. Usually you want to run against this Texans defense. We want to get big and try and run, muck it up and maybe hit a big player too. That's that's kind of the formula and just hope your defense can live as well. But right now I'm very curious what the page Joe Brady kind of writes for this game. Like what formations are it? So I'm more questions than like, oh, this is exactly what I'm going to see because I'm curious if Joe Brady has a new step for this offense. Or if it's just more of the same, but I'm fascinated in this one because I think the Texans of course have a ton of good answers. How about the other side of the ball? We have the Texans on offense, refangle, reconfigured offensive line, Kashan booty, we get his first game as a Texan potentially living on the outside,

34:03going against the bills defense with Jim Leonard as defense coordinator. What are you focusing on on this side of the ball, Matt Harmon? Yeah, and just one last one of the bills offense to keep an eye on James Cook in the passing game. That's been something you know, been kind of obsessed with after like what's the new wrinkle here? And there's been a lot of reports about that from training camp. And then I had James on the fantasy show and asked him about that. And he basically said, you know, with a smile, see you'll have to see on Sundays. So we'll see if we see that as maybe like a man or a chance here for this team. And then yeah, on the Texan side of things is just like, I don't really know what to make of the bills defense. Now either that's what's almost more I think we'll see new wrinkles on the offense for sure. You know, the bills were 18th and neutral drop back great. The last years under Joe Brady as the full time play call. Or I think we'll see that ratchet up like I can guess and have my theories about how we'll see certain dials. Tweak one way. But I think it'll generally kind of live in some of the same kind of area, the same zip code there. Defensively with Jim Leonard.

35:03I think we could see a big shift, but I'm not quite sure how that plays out. Obviously. So that's going to be a big week one reveal. Whereas the Texans, I think we did. I would be shocked if we don't see one of if not their highest rate of like 12 personnel in the last two years in this game in week one. I think we're going to see a ton of Dalton Schultz and Marlin Klein on the field together. That's been a talking point for them, not just because obviously they have some receiver depth questions. But yeah, like can we get just a lot of tight ends on the field? Is that going to help the run game? You know, Nico Collins obviously more condensed in those situations. So that's the thing I'm looking for from the Texans offense. Do we see that schematic tweet come to life here in week one? I kind of great. No, that James Cook receiving stuff. I know you've said that before, but yeah, I kind of remember the Champagne element in this offense, like those choice routes. Again, like I maybe some don't can cage choice routes. I actually think that would be the best way to use him, you know, just like a little short, little read routes. He used them like that was a little bit as a rookie. But also because that is if you had one weakness on this Texas defense, it's Henry tollo tollo.

36:08So like folks on Henry tollo tollo and coverage especially and they try to hide them. Texas do a good job of hiding them. Not having to be in coverage. But if you live in man coverage, somebody has to guard the running guard the running back. So is it a safety? Is it a linebacker? Like as he's out she air could cover them, but they like as he's out she air in the box at part of the rush plan. So that was a nice little highlight there, Matt. Yeah, I like that threat. I like that threat. Sorry, but the other side of the ball, Texans offense want to see the reveal. Like what? Like I liked how the run game looked in this preseason. I thought the O line was really cool, a lesson, especially with Trent Brown was moving some people. Now that he's especially starting, I'm going to say Kalen Rottlitch how he looks. The the bills defense though, I'm fascinated with. I, you know, I'm so high on Jim Leonard. He lived, not lived, but he's more of a man coverage guy. And that's what I've been curious about. Like he doesn't have truly those horses yet. But does he know that or is he just going to coach him up? Like I mean, some guys just do that and they're actually pretty good at that.

37:09So I expect to see a lot of man coverage, which means, you know, might be a Nico Collins, but they might skew the coverage over there. So might be the number two guy has to really make a living case on booty. Is it one of those tyrants? Is Marlon Klein get opportunities? Because they live in a couple of tight end looks. Is it don't sholts getting some opportunities? You know, like living like you mentioned, multi-tied end looks as well. So yeah, I just know. Please, can we get, can we get some Jalen null involved in the offense? I mean, like it's crazy to me that there's just this assumption that noles a slot only player in K-Shun booties and outside player when I don't see that in their skill set at all. And I don't know, K-Shun booties 511, 203 pounds and Jalen null is 511 and 200 pounds. Like let's let's see because I think there's a pretty clear advantage to one as a separator than the other versus man coverage. So yeah, I'd like to see some Jalen null in this game. All by Jalen null. It is an old guy, you know, yeah, I know. Right. Yeah, exactly. I know we're going against D all for it. Yeah, I mean, I would take that. I would kind of see with null, you know, null can win that. But like this is one is like, hey, maybe you can, maybe you can take advantage of this one.

38:11Oh, yeah, like do the bills live in more and dime? Like are they using you base again? Like last year they've been such a nickel team under Shamaq Dermott went to more base last year. Like what kind of their personnel usage? Just I, again, I'm bullish on this defense as it goes along. And I just want to see kind of what it looks like, you know, early on. Oh, yeah, Lanejax and actually look at this precinct too. Just one less little shout off for those defense. All right. I know. Just this is this is more like I think anyone's listening to this. You can tell we actually have more questions than like definitive answers because both these teams, they want to compete, they want to contend and they're making just little personal tweaks for the Texas offense. And then I mean, just defensive tweaks, personal tweaks, scheme tweaks, and some offense and newness, hopefully, you know, with DJ Moore for the bill. So kind of a fun, I mean, I don't say litmus test, but not really a litmus test. But just a nice little, you know, standard bearer for as the season starts. All right. Again, bills are one and a half point favorites on the road. That's really, really, really interesting.

39:12The over under is 44 and a half. What's your prediction? You can do cover whatever however you want to take it met. Oh, I will say, do you say the over under was 44 and a half? I feel like this is a nine. This was how I felt about the, you know, kickoff game. This feels like an obvious under to me. Two teams trying to kind of pull a few new threads on offense, two defenses that, of course, Houston's great. But I think, I think Buffalo, I think, well, I'm just again, we're waiting to see what it looks like. But I do feel the same as you that over time will be good. I feel like this is a low scoring game that I would guess, I would guess Houston pulls this out. I would take them, I would take them to win. And I would, you know, plus one and a half here. Yep. I say I think I think I think this is a squeaker. I think this is a ugly, 17, 16, 2013 type of game. Like that's how I'm envisioning it. Well, I think this can be a rock fight. I think Winner is going to have some cool stuff. But I also think the Texans offense will have some nice moments as well.

40:15But the other side of the ball is just going to be like, it's going to come down to just war daddy versus a war full of defense full of war daddy. So I'm like, if you can't tell, I'm very excited for this matchup, especially because the Texans have the Josh Allen's numbers so badly the last couple of years. So he's had a lot of time to think on that. And you got some motivated quarterbacks here with CJ Stroud and Alan. So this is a very fun, very, very fun week one game. That's why we started off with it. But we're going to take our first break and come back with a few more juicy week one matchups. See you guys in a sec. All right. We are back staying lost in the sauce. We are going to the bucket years at the bangles. The bangles are three and a half point favorites. This is also a Sunday 1 p.m. East Coast game or 10 a.m. If you live on the best coast, we're going to start when the bucks are on offense and have the ball, which means it's time for pedal to the metal presented by Toyota,

41:16the official automotive partner of the NFL Toyota game day, giveaways, put the power in your hands to predict the right play. Stack your correct picks for a chance at exclusive prizes at the Toyota dot slash NFL to learn more. And every week what pedal to metal is, by the way, disclaimer, we're going to predict an offense that we think is going to it's perfectly set up to pop off this weekend. And this week, all eyes are on Baker, that bucks offense and that juicy bank account that Baker may feel has now with that extension. But what are you ready for? What are you ready for? Ready? You're ready to rip on this bucks offense against the bangles defense. Bingles add Dexter Lawrence. What do you think though? Yeah, bangles add Dexter Lawrence. That's great. They have DJ Turner, maybe one of the most underrated outside cornerbacks in the NFL. And what else we got? I mean, no, they have some other. They do have some other usable players for sure. But the biggest issue on this defense, at least it was last year.

42:17And we'll see how it is this year was definitely the linebackers. And that is where I think this bucks offense can eat against this bangles defense. One note that I thought was really interesting last year, according to fantasy points, data, the Falcons led the NFL with 1491 passing yards with the receiver in motion at the snap last season. Obviously, I'm talking about the Falcons because now their former offensive coordinator, Zach Robinson is the offensive coordinator with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think Robinson run game. Okay. It's solid. Like, you know, I'm not seeing his most perfect offensive coordinator in the NFL. Yeah, a lot of zones. Okay, I get that. But I think he's like a objectively good designer in the passing game and objectively really good with receiver usage. And I think what he does with receivers really fits this offense extremely well, specifically a mecca of Bucca who looks like he's healthy after that toe injury. Or, you know, at least he's going to be available coming back from that toe injury in the training camp, the preseason, the whole deal.

43:18He's going to just essentially slide into the role that, you know, that Drake one that has played for Zach Robinson's offense where he was this outside on ball receivers. Rookie, he's going to be more of a movement Z receiver. I think he's going to get cooking in this game. I think Chris Godwin is going to get cooking in this game. The Bengals defense gave up a league high 1,153 passing yards to a receiver in motion at the snap last year. So a little bit of a strength on strength matchup and you know, Baker may feel it went from QB 11 in the first seven weeks in adjusted yards per attempt to QB 31 from then on in that same stat. So what's the truth here with Baker? Is it the beginning of last season to the end of last season? Is it all just due to health and everything? I'm open to that being the case here. So I feel like there's a lot of advantages in the passing game specifically and the run game as well, which I know you've got some notes on that one. Just feels like a good match up here for the a bucks offense with Zach Robinson. Baker may feel it in these receivers moving around this move moving around the formation at the snap.

44:18Yeah, yeah, really curious to just how they use the Godwins of the world. Like they how Zach Robinson used the Mecca Bukas of the world. How they just maneuver these guys? Again, as the summer went along, I got more and more high on the bucks or at least just what I think they can be. It's more of like continuing to thought from going into last year. Really liked the offense aligned offense lines healthy. And I think they will have an advantage even with extra Barnes. You know, boy, Moffee, I did like that signing as well for the bangles and Jonathan Owens there as well. They have some beef now and then a little bit of heat as well. But I do think the bucks all line just still has a clear advantage, especially with the linebackers. But yeah, I really my first note was I want to see what this run game under Zach Robinson looks like. It was so zone heavy. I mentioned this. I'm curious and more offense is used. Pullers this year. If there's a little bit more gap scheme, this defense can be a little varied from the bangles. So you can kind of get a little bit of everything. So maybe I just want to see a little bit more sprinkled. I think the Falcons were the zone heaviest team over the last two years.

45:20The entire NFL if I've taught my head like, like, nine, five deep. Spit too. Yeah, but it's bad. Yeah, if I remember correctly. So I what's nice about the bucks aligned, they're good at everything. I saw a little bit of man blocking, duo blocking in the preseason. Again, use looking Bucky Irving. Bucky Irving was not only practicing, but playing in the preseason, which makes me think all systems go there. I think the bucks the only real injury they have is a Sean, Sean Tucker. But I'm not sure I think at the update yet what he looks like. But Bucky looked good to me. Kent Gainwell is a nice little juice juice in the backfield as well. So I'm yeah, I got higher on this bucks offense than. I was a couple months ago because those are a reminder of how good this O'Line can be. And Kevin Carberry, though, line coaches still there. And really just curious too with the Bengals defense, it looks like I really do think they can get up to towards average this year, which if you pair it with a top six offense, six offense and 18th-ish 20th defense, that could be pretty good.

46:23You know, that's kind of the Cowboys theory as well. Like they're actually kind of two peas in a pot a little bit as far as how I look at those teams. But yeah, this got a little small house fight because you know, Dexter Lawrence and all that stuff. But just some some new interesting stuff. But why I keep kind of get back to the bucks O'Line being healthy and good is these are the run game O'Line stats for the bucks over the last years. In 2024, 9.7 explosive play rate on design runs, 42% running back rushing success rate. Early down running back runs got 5.2 yards of pop and they allowed a 24.4% pressure rate. In 2025, 5.8% explosive run rate. So almost half 36.9 running back rushing success rate. That's a significant drop. So 42% like up there, that's like top five, top six, 36, 37% bottom half. Early down running back runs only got 3.9 yards of rush. So 1.3 yard difference and then a 35.8% pressure rate allowed last year, almost 11% difference over 11% difference.

47:25So again, that is a significant difference. And if you're getting 1.3 yards more per run on early downs, then that makes third down easier. That makes the maker may feel life easier. That gets the screen keeps the screen game open and more efficient because you don't only need four yards as opposed to nine. And it just it's the trickle down effect of everything. So the bucks run game game back on track is like really just what I'm keying in on. And I think they can this week even with a better bangles defense. But on the other side, we got the bangles offense. And Joe borough versus Todd Bowles, the knuckleballer, Phil Nekrow. You know who Phil Nekrow is? You know, no. Okay, he's knuckleballer. Okay, Phil Nekrow. Look up who Phil Nekrow is. It was like a set of brothers. They were both knuckleballers because knuckleballers are all just like they just teach each other. So there's, you know, it's like a close group. But anyways, but Joe borough versus Todd Bowles, I think this could be very, very fun. Bangles are hyping up Chase Brown this off season.

48:27They're really, really talking them up. We have course no T Higgins, Jamar Chase. But I do think this bucks defense has added a really, really nice bunch of new faces on that defense that make a lot of sense for the defense. But what's got you geeked up about this side of the ball, Matt? Yeah, I'm really excited to see Rubin Baynan in his debut. He had a lot of positive reviews and hype about him out of bucks camp. And my god, like, do they need this guy so badly to be exactly that? How badly have they just needed like a true, I can get pressure on my own edge rusher during basically the whole Todd Bowles era here? We know what Todd Bowles can do. Obviously, cook up pressures, you know, he's just makes bad quarterbacks lives hell. He can make good quarterbacks look a little bit worse than they are. But if he can have somebody to get pressure on their own, that takes his defense, I think to another level. It's funny when they go against like a certain type of quarterback. And this is why I was going back to like Kurt Cousins, you know, always tears up the buck. Always during his run with the Falcons is like his stats against the rest of the league. Worst quarterback in the NFL. His stats against Tampa Bay elite quarterback over his

49:32couple of years with the Atlanta Falcons there is because it's like, oh, well, if you just can ID where the blitz is coming pre snap, just just throw it into that hole, throw it into the zone and just keep the offense moving. Obviously, that's something that Joe Burrow can do, especially when he's doing his like point and shoot from the gun, you know, kind of routine. But the bangles have been very insistent in camp and, you know, trying it out in the pre season, that they want to be different on offense this year. They want to get under center. They want to blend the run in the past game a little bit. Do we see this team really commit to that in week one? Like, how quickly do they pull the rip cord on that experiment? Is it like to really paint in the ass drives against Todd Bulls and they're not quite hyphiring on all cylinders and Joe's like, all right, enough. Just let me get in the gun and an ID things pre snap and point and shoot and get the ball to the playmakers. Like, I feel like we could see that very early in this game, which, you know, would if you're looking for a high scoring affair, which is this is the highest over under of week one, I think that's probably almost what you want to do. Ditch the experiment early right away. But we know over the, that's not the best thing for the long term health of this offense

50:36because they do need to blend that a little bit more. They need to blend it, but that's the thing. I they played each other once. Joe Burrow and the bangles for Todd Bulls in and Burrow's career. Week 15, 2022, 41 dropbacks. How many explosive plays? Oh my god. Uh, two, one, one, maybe one dropbacks, one explosive. Oh, generate 49% success rate, 48.8, averaged 4.9 yards of dropback. Wow. So it was a lot of digging a dunk in, a lot of getting in the ball, quick, but it was very highly successful. So that's the thing is like, this might not be the game to see what I want to see, which is, I want to see Burrow pushing it a little bit. I want to see more than just vertical goal balls. I want to see some, you know, concepts over a meal, some high lows over the middle should really push the ball. 10 again, pushing the ball to me is driving the ball on digs and seams and benders and everything. Some we didn't see may do last night, but he was blitzed on 12 dropbacks in that game and according to next chance stats, 6 of 11 for 53

51:41yards, two touchdowns, one sack and four first downs. So decent rate, over a third, you know, one third first down rate. My one big thing that I see Todd Bulls leaning into more and maybe it was just then actually was Drake May last year that really peaked my interest on this. He'll drop eight against quick game guys and guys that really wanted to dunk like this. So and they did that a few times that last matchup where they just dropped eight. That's where you just flood the wings. And again, the way to be dropping is you run on it, which is what we want to see the Bengals do more or you launch it over the top, which is something we want to see the Bengals do more. So I, that could be a perfect little like tester for like, hey, what we got here, we want to see more under center stop. Do we get into heavier personnel and with a couple tight ends and because Todd Bulls will match with base and you want them to match with base because then it's less, you know, just fewer funky blitz looks. So this is a really nice kind of like little tester for like, where's this kind of new flavor of the Bengals offense look like? Is it more of the same like you said or is the new

52:44tweaks are they going to live with it or is it just the first quarter and they're just like, all right, screw that spread two by two. Here goes our little class ground. So a little high less. Yeah, side go Jamar chase go to against let's do it. It's the same old same old same old self. Very, very fun matchup on the side of all. It's it is a great little Petri dish for the for the test for this offense because I'm just really curious how committed they are to it. Not just in one game, but even just over the, I mean, they're there notoriously slow start team tough to say out. So last season, bro gets hurt early in that Jacksonville game. But you know, if they suffer through any of those typical Bengals slow start to they just pull that record pretty quickly and I do think there's going to be opportunities for it in this game against Tampa Bay. But we'll see. We'll see how committed they are to it. Yeah, I know. I know. Yeah, that's the thing. It's like all summer ideas are great. But it's let's see it by Halloween. Let's see it after you lose two games in a row. Like how do you do defense is giving it up to Baker and the boys on the other side, which I do. Yeah, now we get spread it out. I got we got to say thanks for thanks for the thought.

53:46Joe, I'm Joe burrowing this editorializing here. Thanks for the thoughts boys. I'm just going to do what I want to do because I'm the most important person here. I so I so Joe. He's like Joe Johnson. I so Joe just I so him up. Let's go, baby. All right, final predictions for this game. Again, Bengals are three and a half point favorites at home. The overrunner is 50 and a half. And you know this on the fans. He show yesterday is that that is the highest of week one. Thank you to producers for that note as well. What do you got? What you got? What you think? I think this goes over and I think the bucks win. I'll take the bucks to win a week one. I also think it goes over. I think the bucks win too. And it's and it's more just this is I think it's a good matchup for the bucks. Like I actually think they match up decent against this team right now. And I'm not down totally on the Bengals. I I still think that they are a real like real way lie potential playoff team. But they're slow starters. We'll see if they adapt. This is not the easiest matchup with bowls and just but again, it's a nice little tester. So I'm again, I I don't want to like

54:49I'm not wager on this one. This is just going to be a purely enjoying football one because there's a lot of fun variables in this game of fun players. All right, speaking of fun games and this one's near and dear to my heart. We're going north Packers at Minnesota. Yes, yes, it is Packers at Vikings Vikings are one and a half point favorites. This is a Sunday afternoon game for 25 PM East Coast time. This is yeah. This is I mean that I have enjoyed some of these week one games between including 2003 when Lambo Field got a whole bunch of renovations. I still have a coin from it that they they gave out a community of coin. And I think the Vikings picked off right far four times in that game. And that was yeah, so very enjoyable memory for me. And if you want to see how good Randy Moss has watched that game. Like he had no deep plays and was still dominant. But anyways, enough about week one 2003. Let's get to week one 2026. So let's start with when the Packers have the ball with insert name here at running back insert name here at offensive

55:54line, but they still got frickin Jordan love and they got some speed at receiver. They still got Tucker craft and they got real going against a really fun another knuckle ball or defense defensive coordinator and Brian floor as what is catching your attention on this side of the ball Matt. Man, I have I have like no idea what to expect from this game on. Certainly when the Packers have the ball, I'm obviously really interested to see what their run game looks like. Obviously, Josh Jacobs not going to play in this game. Like this is the first first experience of the Martian Lloyd world. How much do they trust? Martian Lloyd? How much do they lean on him? I feel like this is a game where we'll see a lot of Chris Brooks in past protection against like funky blitzes coming from the other side of it feels like a very past heavy game. We talked about this yesterday where this is like a very boom bust passing game. Specifically, Jordan love can be a little bit. He can always be a little bit boom bust. And you know, depending on your narrative, which do you like more the boom or the bust with your Jordan love evaluation. But it's as you

56:58point out yesterday, it's even more stark when you see them go against the Minnesota Viking. So I really don't know what to make from this game on either side of it. I just think we're going to see a lot of explosive plays because they on the other side of it too. I really tough to figure out what the Vikings offense is going to look like in the first game of the Kyler Murray experience. But they're going to have advantages on the outside with those wide receivers versus these corner backs. So like let's see what that looks like. I'm very fascinated to watch this one. Yep. I have seen love. What's really nice about the Packers, even whoever's playing a line, they really do have nice protection rules. They do a really good job of getting the running back out like which is always the key. You want all five of your eligible to get out on a route. You know, running back in a six man protection. I think more teams should live in six man. But they also shouldn't just say, hey, the run back is going to take this guy because that's how we do it. The Packers actually adjusted to change their their slides and their man blocking to always trying to make sure the run back gets out. But what you mentioned right there,

58:01Marshawn Lloyd does a pass protectors on proven. I mean, this guy's less than 200 carries and since what since high school is not everyone's just talking about too, which I that's what he looks like. So Roaks is in protection is going to be key. Flores is going to target that or try and use that, you know, no shot shakeups there. So that is really paramount to me what I'm just really, really focusing on. Jordan Love Against Flores has been pretty good. He's second in average area. It's to the sticks because like you said, it's boom bust. He's going to launch that thing. It's on pinning. It's by design guys. That's how you want to attack these type of defenses. You want to pop them on the nose. Like they want to keep coming at you. All right. Pop. Yeah, we'll take some. We'll get here a couple times. His sac rates a little bit higher. It's still acceptable. 4.8%. But you know, it's he's going to launch some stuff. They're going that's by design. That's what's going to go for. So that's fun. It's fireworks, baby. And but I do think the Packers though. It's like they can't really rely on the run game because the backs are whatever remain to be seen. You know, kill Johnson's in there too from Pittsburgh. Do the Packers pick up more tempo. There are another

59:05team that was a rumor to be a little bit more of a tempo team. And maybe again, this is a great defense to use tempo against because usually what's calls are longer. They're a little bit more verbiage. So keep them out of those funky blitz looks and just keep relatively simple, which with 4. As is like cover 2. So maybe some more tempo on early downs. And yeah, I'm just looking to see a drone love starts the launch session in week one. And we just, you know, there's some of the highlights and the low lights that we all all get is going and sometimes makes me yell like how we're Dean. Yeah. When he throws those balls. All right. So let's get to the other side of the ball because you already hinted at this. Who with the Packers playing on the outside? Start. We'll get to the before we get to the Vikings and offense just I do think this Packers match up. It's a little bit akin to what we just talked about with the Bengals where I do think the Packers want to be different this year. More tempo. I wish we saw on the preseason. The one drive that those guys had against

1:00:06the Steelers, especially a lot more tempo, you know, more 11 personnel. I know they signed John who Smith. I still feel like there'll be more of an 11 personnel team than a 12 personnel team has been in the past like three receivers, Tucker Kraft is loan tight and I think that's an advantage for them. And Jordan love calling plays in the final preseason game. The second half, I think is like hashtag bullish, you know, to the let love cook movement that's sort of building here. But is that remember it's a long season. The week one reveal isn't always like instantly things get figured out. Do they kind of like the dog returns to its vomit in week one much like the Bengals, you know, we're like, uh, we want in the long run. We want to be this more nother center around base team. But here week one, we got to beat Todd Bulls. So like, yeah, Joe Brogat and the gun and do the thing. Uh, is this more of a yeah, and the longer run the pack is going to be more efficient, play with more pace tempo. But in week one, we got to get past Brian for as Jordan, you know, launch that thing. Uh, that will be I don't want to like overreacting over index to what we see in week one. Where it's the same old same old, which maybe I need to remind myself that after ranting about the Patriots offense in the first segment, but I know it's, I've been

1:01:10around this thing for my whole life. And it's like it's the week one over reactions is so hard not to because it's just like so much build up and it's like I told you so or see. Oh, no, no, not that like it's just yeah, you can't help yourself to go that way. Um, oh yeah, that also the Packers, I don't even know if I talked about this here, but they traded for Mark Redmond, this tight end from the Rams, who's a nice little burly dude and him and craft could move some people. And again, that's kind of how you, you, those wing looks can be pretty good. Those hip looks with two tight ends with each other. So that's someone keep my eye. That's, sorry, that's not real nerdy nerdy. No, no, no, listen, you know, you know, I love a good blocking tight end, but I somebody that needs Jayne Reed to run more routes this year. I don't need to be hearing about they've got this really just more credit. They do. I know they traded for them. I was like, yeah, there we go. And again, like I thought Jordan Morgan could maybe kick out a tackle. Again, the Packers like all the guys can be very similar body types. They're always well coached. So even if it's not like the high, high end talent, it's kind of they get the kind of shanahem bump

1:02:14where the scheme and the coaching really does help them to like they can play as average like they, they like I'm not as down on the Packers, Ole, I think as the public consensus is because the scheme really helps them out and a quarterback that never fricking takes sacks helps them out as well. You might throw picks. He does not take sacks. All right. Other side of the ball Vikings have the offense the rare former quarterback versus former head coach matchup. Kyle Murray versus Jonathan Gannon. You rarely get that especially just a couple months after they were together. So that's a little fun little as we used to say on my old show, the John Wick revenge game going on. But what's capturing you on this side of the ball? I know you just said it might be a little bit of a launch session on this side too. Well, God, just because you brought up the Jonathan Gannon thing, I'm sure Jonathan is a classy guy. I would still love to be a fly on the wall in the Packers defensive meeting. I think there's some maybe leftover tension with that relationship with Kyle Murray. Tell me

1:03:16what you really think. I would be really curious to know how he wants because I think we'll know that based on how the team plays defensively against Kyle Murray and the Minnesota Vikings. But we really don't know what to expect from the Vikings offense. This is again, theme of the show here is you've told us you want to be this now. Can you go actually be this as the game start here? One of the constant tenors from the Vikings, you know, offense offense this off season. It's like, yeah, of course, Kyle Murray quarterback change is changing the QB2 or the QB3. Who cares? What they keep kind of insisting on quietly is that they're really serious about the run game this year. You know, they hire Frank Smith over from the Miami Dolphins. They bring in some of these bigger bodies to help in the run game, including Juan Jennings power slot receiver. Check the box there. The offensive line is going to be a little bit healthier this season. They want to be more of that just like the outside zone consistent run team. Well, let's see it against this Packers defense that isn't going to have Michael Parsons is banged up coming into this game. I would love to

1:04:18see if they can really commit to that bit here in week number one. And it's Kyle Murray like involved in the designed run game. There's been some whispers of that coming out of Vikings camp again, just to kind of put an exclamation point at the end of that sentence. They want to be this they actually want to be serious about the run game this year, which they haven't been for most of the Kevin O'Connell era. Let's see if they can actually commit to it in week one. Yep. Last year, 2025 brought the setup many of times, but yeah, they're run game. The Vikings were sixth and early down running back rush, success rate and the whole league in 13th and rushing dvway. Again, this was the best under KOC. Now they have Kyler, which should, you know, implement a little bit more. They want to do some gun runs. I think KOC would same Darnell never ran him, which was always I was like, oh, wait till he uses that. He never did. Maybe Kyler though, that is more of his game, but really Kyler and Mike, you know, Kyler is really good at and Cliff Kingsbury uses all the time was when they were getting short yardage, they would go under center, and they would boot him. What's called a Lonesome, which is just like a one man boot. Do you just keep it and run? It takes advantage of hard-crashing defense events for anyone that knows. That's how I

1:05:23scored my one loan touchdown in college was on a Lonesome run. It was supposed to get me, it was designed to get me smoked and blown up, but the Indiana defender, this one, Indiana was bad, had no idea what was going on. So I just scooted right past them, but that's a Kyler special, and I'm sure KOC is going to drop that answer. Look for a little short, very usual like keeper. You know, that's what I'll call it. Again, the Packers are going to be without Michael Parsons. That's just what's keeping me from getting over the top. He's the ace for a reason. As much as I really like guys like Carl Brooks, Lucas Van Ness, I thought I had a really strong preseason, keeping eye on him. He could have a nice little breakout year. I actually like the linebackers for the Packers. The spine I actually kind of like, but it's the corners. And you're going against Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and potentially in Joanne Jannings doing some things as well, and against KOC. And he has showsways to abuse this. I said us on the show yesterday, look for a double move. It's Jordan Addison. Kind of like one of those double moves when they pass the midfield. He really likes that. But Packers without Michael Parsons last year,

1:06:25were 25th and stuff rate against running back runs. They're 31st and rushing success rate allowed. They were 24th and explosive run rate allowed 31st and sac rate 30 second and overall success rate 30th and EPA per play. That's a lot of 30s. That's a lot of 30s 32 teams 30 out of 10 folks. They were bottom three on late downs in terms of like getting off the field on third down, getting off the field on fourth down. And remember Jeff Haffley got a head coaching job off of this. So I'm curious. This Ganon, Ganon with is a Mike Zimmer guy. When he was with the Eagles and Eagles fans had frustrations with that very staple static coverages, a lot of zone because they had a really good front and he just let him turn them loose. And then Mike Zimmer though is the king of third down and late downs and third down blitzes, especially double mug looks. And we sound a little bit of that from Ganon this preseason. And Nick Rawls of course is defense coordinator's zone. They're just funky down. So again, I don't know how much is Ganon turning turn up the funky

1:07:26dial or does he go is he just going to play his zone coverage stuff, which I'd rather him be funky, especially against a Vikings team with Kyler. And you know, if you miss that center, like that's maybe one way you can take advantage and get after this team. If you kind of get them on a really downs and you know, keep them in third long. So yeah, really that's kind of how I summed it up. It was like this Jonathan was 2026. Jonathan Ganon defense look like the Packers run defenses versus sneaky good Vikings run game. And then the blend of K.O.C. and Kyler really one of my biggest curiosity is this entire season is how's that blend look where the play action concepts look like. Do we see waggles K.O.C. likes to kind of toss his own play. So waggles a bootleg where you fake the toss. So as old school as it gets, but that's a great play for Kyler because it gets a moving gets him out in space. So just a lot of again, one where I know some stuff, but also I have a lot of curiosity is because of the new faces there. And the last thought, do we I think we talked about this a little yesterday. Do we see a lot of cover six from Ganon, you know, Cloud Justin, we don't have corners. All right, Cloud Justin Jefferson. So is it a Jordan ass and weak, you know,

1:08:31is like against quarters. And if it is a big cover two game, do the Vikings like just go, Nope, we're going to run it. We're going to run it. We're going to run it. We're going to trust the run game. Kyler. See sometimes gets a latency. He's got a little Drake May and I'm he loves chucking that ball deep. So maybe just, you know, stay true to the game plan. I think maybe it's the best way to play. Yeah, this this one sort of really, really fun week one match up. The Vikings are one and a half point favorites. The overrun there is 46 and a half. What is your final prediction for this game, Matt? Yeah, I'll take Packers. I feel like I'm taking all the underdogs this week, which is tough, but it's week one. Nobody knows. We want time to do it. It's week one. I'll take Packers and this one. Yeah, I definitely understand as we talked about the Packers are a boom bust offense specifically against this Vikings defense, but I think Kevin O'Connor, Kevin O'Connor, our our coworker here. No, Kevin O'Connell is one of the most boomer bust play callers in the NFL. I think Kyler Murray is one of the most boomer bust quarterbacks in the NFL. So I'm just going to

1:09:31need like some time to see it there to index to what that is. You know, we'll see if it comes together here in the first week of the season. I'll go Packers in this game. Oh, man, I've gone back and forth on this one a lot. I thought the thing I feel most the best about is the over. I'll say that. I think we're going to see fireworks in this game. Good call. Just wait for my Hilmery as the over. I'll take the Vikings here, but is it aren't you? You're pot committed with the Vikings, right? Like you and pot committed on the Vikings. Was that supposed to be a hipster that you tweeted out yesterday when you shared our. Yeah, you don't remember that 20-year-old meme. The hipster. I was actually a little I was actually that picked the Vikings. So I was like, I had someone else would do it. And I was there. I was all alone. Now I was actually just I was actually just a little offended. How much that, you know, maybe not the scarf, but otherwise how much that looked like me at 22 years old. It does just a little bit. It's just a little bit. I'm

1:10:35not going to lie. There's a little bit. It could be your brother. It could be your brother. I mean, I did break on to the, you know, in my very successful television career. My breakthrough character was the fantasy hipster on NFL network. And yeah, again, did I ever on ironically wear the scarf or that deep of a V? No, I did not. But, you know, otherwise that could be that could be 24-year-old Matt Harmon on NFL network for sure. Okay. You can make that hell of shower in my flat white. I'll put that little or a mochiata. Also like a strict black coffee only drinker, which, you know, that's like the most hipster thing you can be. No, I'm a, yeah, I'm usually straight double espresso. But then, you know, I like the little doll of old milk, you know, every once well my double espresso. I really like a mochiata. That's probably my favorite if I had a pick one. But, yeah, I'm going to go with the Vikings here, but I really just want to see points in this one. I am not pocketmitted on this game. I am pocketmitted on the Vikings a little bit this season. But I think this could be a very entertaining one with some fireworks, which we'll get to with the Hill Mary.

1:11:38But we are going to take our last break. And before we do that, by the way, check out the game time app for great prices on tickets. Like some of these games, we're just talking about the F some juicy matchups and lots of points potentially. Great prices on tickets for all these games and much, much more. We're going to take our last break and come back with the cheat sheet one thing on two more games. All right. We are back with the cheat sheet. This is one thing to watch for in each game. We got two for you guys this week starting with Monday night football. Broncos at chiefs a classic AFC West doozy chiefs doing half point favorites. So nice and neutral on the road. Actually, I think that I think it's like two point spread like one and a half is like home advantage nowadays. So I actually this might be even more to the chiefs. But what is your one thing for this game, Matt Harmon? Yeah. Listen, I'm just going to play the hits, play the favorites here. Can the chiefs beat man coverage? You know, obviously, I'm very focused on Kenneth Walker and

1:12:39what the run game looks like and does that just kind of is that the thing that that the rising tide that lists all boats? I'm open to that. At the same time, Denver is probably the best man coverage secondary in the NFL. They definitely lean into it the most there with fans Joseph. And now you're playing the chiefs in week one who they still don't have any receivers in my opinion, except Cyrus Allen who can beat man coverage. And he's like, they're fourth receivers. He's a day three rookie. Come on, even the biggest Cyrus Allen fan in the world, you know, knows to be realistic with that. Can they beat man coverage of this one, especially as they're going into it with a backup left tackle among one of the more mysterious situations in the NFL right now with Josh Simmons. Don't know what to do. Don't know what to do about that one. But they're playing with a backup left tackle and they've got receivers who again, I think struggle to beat man coverage. So we'll see if they can actually get any improvement off that in week one. Yeah, I know. I technically have two things. This is my first thing is Khalil Benson at left tackle. Question mark, exclamation point. Look good. I will say look good at right guard in the preseason running with the ones. But right

1:13:44scarred season is way different than left tackle in the regular season. And it's way different and left tackle in the regular season against this Broncos defense as this guy named Nick Benito. And it's got a lot of heat coming at you. But yeah, we'll see how he does. He has some talent, but not ideal for especially my homes coming back nine months after the ACL. 10 months, nine, 10 months after off the ACL, but coming back, I'm credit to him for working his way back and getting there, but just not an ideal setting. But really my one thing, my real one thing is yeah, what is this new fangle chiefs run game look like? The Broncos were excellent against running back runs last year. First overall 33% success rate. That means two out of three runs were unsuccessful for offenses. That's ridiculous. One thing that got him last year was QB scrambles. But again, my homes ACL, but teams that did get him last year got him out of sub of 11 personnel three or more receivers from week 10 onwards. They're 23rd in EPA per play against

1:14:48three or more wide receivers. 28th in the most EPA allowed versus slot target size here. That's like Parker Washington. And then 30th and this was the funny step. They were still first or second. I came up first, I think in yards before contact, but then 30th in yards after contact. So maybe if you get them a light bodies, they're not as good as tackling team. Again, these are the threads. You have to pull out if you're going against really good defenses. They're 12th and running back rushing success rate against sub. So first against all of the looks, 12th against sub. And then that would be in first overall. And 23rd because all those yards after contact, 23rd and explosive design runs. So yeah, everybody wants the multi tight ends. Everybody wants that. But I'm actually like chiefs, keep doing what you're doing. You know, maybe actually this is the formula for this week. Maybe don't change as much. But I just want to see what some of these new ideas are. If they have any new ideas, does Andy Reed get his mojo back in week one? This is usually we see his cool stuff. But I haven't really seen that in a couple of years. Like it really has felt like

1:15:51three or four years since we've had that big week open barrage. I think they played Arizona a couple of years ago and they just shredded them. Was that a fan's Joseph defense? It was a fan's Joseph and Nick Ralls, but they shredded them. And then but they have that's just really when we're focusing on. And then against the other side, it's the new finger chiefs defense against jail and law don't crow and sudden that should be that should be pretty dang fun. Chiefs though, again, our two and a half point favorites. Do you have a final prediction for this game? I think Broncos win and the Broncos win pretty handily. I just have again the left tackle question for Kansas City's big. I mean, Kenneth Walker, the screen game is something to watch for. I think that leads into a lot of the points you were just making there. And he, you know, he's someone that like that's that's something that Kansas City can find a new advantage by getting back to some of those running back screens, which used to be like the Andy Reed staple, you know. So yeah, I'm looking for that. But I think the Broncos are just the significantly better team right now. The quarterback is he's coming off an injury too, but home's 20 ACL coming back here and the lack of scrambles. I feel like Denver's just a better team right now. Yep. And week one. Yes. And that's

1:16:57the thing. I'm also going Denver, but I want to I can't wait for this match rematch, you know, and also just see what the chiefs have. But I am buying more into that chiefs defense. I think that could be a top 10 defense here. I really do. Yeah. No loans. Mansor Delay and look great. Like I think they figured out their DBs and I they've just added a little bit more juice up from like some just more variants up front that maybe some like FA use playing better. Just a lot of guys and yeah, but I am going Broncos here. But that's to say, I am still kind of like I just want to see what the chiefs look like. I want to see if they just have something for me here or if they just have ways to mitigate their past issues. The last thing too is maybe both of these rookie running backs, both of the coach, Emma Johnson for the chiefs and Jonah Coleman for the Broncos, both of their coaching staffs and this is super notable have hyped up their past protection. That is so notable that rookie running backs are getting that and you're going against two defenses that like the blitz. So very fun kind of again, like this is week one. It's like the barometer. Where's everybody at? So I think it's notable that they've hyped both of them up and both

1:18:01have noted their past protection. And you read about Emma Johnson and Sean Peyton who won't shut up about Jonah Coleman. It's like, yeah, I'm really, really excited to see maybe is that real or is that just you know, preseason buzz that just fades away as the season goes along because Emma Johnson, I would say impressed me in the preseason. I wasn't over the top of them as a prospect. I liked him fine enough. I'm him and Coleman are in the same tier for me. It doesn't matter. But I think I liked him already better in his one month than maybe I did and some of the things that Nebraska. So that wasn't was an interesting note. I thought, all right, last game for the chief Ravens at Colts. This is a Sunday one PM game East Coast time. Colts, three and a half point underdogs at home, which check it out in this game. I am so fascinated to see what Jesse Mentor's defense looks like here in Baltimore because I think that the chargers were just one of the best zone coverage teams that I watched certainly last year. And even his first season there, it was just man, they would pass things off really well. The

1:19:02communications grade like they would just close windows in zone coverage over the middle of the field. But I think that there's more, there's definitely more talent. I would argue at least in that Ravens secondary and what they can do from a past defense standpoint than what the chargers have had. And the reason that I think this is so fascinating, just like what their coverage looks like in week one is because obviously I'm super fascinated with the Colts receiver rotation. I know you have some notes on this. We've talked about this before. I looked at the 398 SNAPs last year where Alec Pierce, who's going to play in week one, is he going to be, he's going to be a person named Alec Pierce on the football field in week one. Is he going to be full-go Alec Pierce? I would probably be pretty skeptical of that. But he's going to be on the field. Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, all these guys have been banged up in the course of the offseason, but they're going to be available in week one. I looked at the 398 SNAPs last year where all three of those guys were on the field together. It goes kind of how you would expect it from a deployment standpoint where it's Pierce's the X, Downs is the slot and Michael Pittman, who is on the field for 377 of those

1:20:05SNAPs. He was mostly the Z receiver. And I think Keenan Allen will be the Z receiver who plays less than Pierce and Downs because he was basically a designated hitter in 11 personnel as the Z receiver for the charges last year. Almost 18 area yards per target for Pierce on those 398 SNAPs, 8.4 for Downs and 5.8 for Tyler Warren. Downs significantly leads the group in target share, 27%. He was target on 23% of his routes. Nobody else was higher than 20%. From a target's per-row run perspective on those SNAPs. I feel like Downs can be a really good answer for them, as they're probably not going to access a lot of vertical shots to Pierce in his first game back, especially against what I'm imagining this Jesse Minter zone heavy defense looks like. Just Pierce's vertical route tree, you're not going to crack a lot of those coverages on the outside. So if you're going to see a heavy dose of Downs, which is obviously some of my priors talking, but certainly I think he's going to be a big answer for this team. Yeah, I know we talked about this yesterday hint to that. It was I really,

1:21:08Shane Stiking can dial up some plays and he runs a lot of all- yeah. It's a stuff I do like. He's got the North Turner stuff to him, a lot of verticality. But I thought that he did last year and this year in preseason, did some interesting formational stuff that I think a lot of teams should lean into. So that's kind of what I'm looking at as like Colts Formation Usage. And I try to use some screen grabs of all 22, but apparently it can't use them. So I try to drop one of the formations. So that's it. That's it. All right. So there's the tight end. That's the Y. That's the other tight end right there. And then this right here are the X and Z. So that would be right there. That would be out pierced and then that would be Downs right there to Z. Now I don't have any little squiggly lines, but what the Colts like to do is motion the Z back and forth all the way over, move him around. But what you're doing, that's how you unlock Josh Downs. You have some issues with the guy in the slot. Create a slot, you know, out of two tight end looks. But it's cool that I think that the Colts already know how to do that. That's part of their wheelhouse. So they know how to highlight these guys. So I'm just watch their off and slash here. But the other formation

1:22:12off of that and I can't really, can't really show it is enough. So now imagine just one tight end on as the loan tight end right there and that F tight end on the other side. So it creates what they call a one by three formation. One being the loan tight end one by three. So they also use that and some interesting looks out of 12 personnel, which I thought was so interesting. Again, last year they showed it, but again, they kept at it in preseason with the anti-riches and or Riley Leonard in the game. So that is it was a path for me because I'm like, how are all these guys going to configure? I'm just really curious about it. I know Staking has some good ideas with it. So how is it? And it was like, once I saw those formations, like, oh, duh, that's how you do it. Because what you're doing in a one by three is you're creating two slots. So if you want Downs on the field with tower Warren and you want real, you want real routes for them that they actually might not get the ball or they might get the ball as opposed to just like, you know, run it for the love of the game or you're just an auxiliary route. That's how you do it. Will Mallory was getting highlighted on those plays because Warren wasn't in there. So

1:23:13I that's what I'm looking at the most is the formation usage of the cults that is a kind of like a fun little scheme cork thing. And I really, really do like, you know, I'm really high on the Ravens. I've gotten more and more high on the Ravens. So if you want my like one tip on the Ravens, want to see what the run game looks like with Dwayne Ledford, do they lean into a lot of zone? He was zone heavy with the Falcons. But in Declan Doyle has been a zone guy. Do they use some, have some new wrinkles in the run game? What does their play action game look like? I have some ideas. I really do think because the Marge Act since it's an elite has thrown over the middle at a top five rate among all quarterbacks that I played in the, and I'm just in the lead. And since he's an elite, I would say since 2013, actually, he's top five and over the middle rates. It's like him, Brock Purti, you know, a couple, I think like Matt Ryan, like a couple other like Shane Hane guys. But Lamar is going to chuck that thing over the middle and you're going against a rookie linebacker, CJ Allen. You know, I think they have some cut into the Colts DBs on the back end. You got another rookie, AJ Halsey, who I do like. There's a new face back there on the, on the deep end. So does

1:24:18that play action game? How does the effect them? Do we see some aim breakers off of that? Again, another, this is a very fun schematic game, very, very fun to watch because I do think really all four coaches for play callers. Yeah, Luana Ruma Shane, Stuykin, Jesse Mentor, and then Declan Doyle's the unknown, but there's ideas of what Declan Doyle can be. Very, very cool for kind of play callers, potentially, this game. So very excited about it. Again, Colts are three and a half point underdogs at home, who are you leaning towards? Yeah, I'll take the Ravens on this one. I'm really high on what this offense is going to look like. And I mean, I do, I'm, God, I love, I love this schematic stuff you're talking about with the Colts there. And I don't know what I love more of the screenshot on the Docker, your little note pad. We got to, we got to get the note pad more involved for the folks on YouTube here, but you know, there's no, no means loan tight end. No, why? Okay, there's no. So that's the other formation they use. No, so you see how there's kind of like two slots with the F that's worn Z would be

1:25:20down. So that should be Pierce, who's the perfect extra that because you just run vertical. So yeah, that's no, and they like running so say a lot of it. Sorry. No, this is, I mean, this is gold. This is great stuff. This is, yeah, and sale and everything. This is great. This is great. Perfect. Perfect. But I do think that I'll go Ravens on this one. I think they're a better team. I'm really fast at see what this defense looks like. And you know, stand Jones first game back off at Achilles. I know that's something on your radar as well. Yep, they own Jones off to the kill ease. That's it. I just can't, I can't buy into the Colts in September. They almost, they're almost like flip of they were last year, but October on work, I'm not, I'm not counting you out, Colts, like it's a wide open AFC and you're very valid to win eight plus games. I know that sounds like I'm underselling you, but that's kind of where we're at. And the save see right now, but like you're very valid. Shane Stuykin's got some good stuff. The old wine should be pretty dang good. But you got enough what you still got you on the Taylor. Seth McGowan had a great preseason. I really liked him. I swooped him up in every league possible. You got a bevy of tight ends. They're cool. And then just the defense, I have a couple questions,

1:26:22but I like the rookies they drafted. I really like CJ Allen and like AJ Halsey. So again, but I want to see how they kind of go. And I like King Curry. They're six round pick, but they are seem like a team that needs maybe a month to get their feet wet to get Daniel Jones right to get all their guys healthy and just kind of figure out what this version is. But hopefully they can pick it up quickly. But I'm also going with the Ravens long too long to read. I'm going with the Ravens in this game, but very fun scheme game. All right. Last segment here. Let's wrap things up. It's time for our Hail Mary's. This is where we throw up a prayer of a prediction for the weekend. We're going to keep track of them throughout the season. Last year, I got to write the entire season. So we're each going to have one. And we're going to ask you guys every week. I'm going to tweet something out. I want you guys to throw your big bowl of predictions at us. And we'll keep track of how the crowd does because you guys have some really fun ones. And I just picked one that thought was interesting. But what you got for your first Hail Mary of the season, that Harmon. Chargers score 50 plus points in week one. All the hype is realized with the Mike McDaniel offense

1:27:26going against the chart. I see. Anyway, right? No, this one's me. If you look at in the second half of the season for the Arizona Cardinals, two things they really struggled with defensively. Look, I know they're going to they're definitely going to be healthier in this game because they really can't be less healthy than they were in the back half of last season. But it is still same defensive play call or Nick Rollace there. They really struggled with explosive plays and bringing guys down in the open field. They were one of the worst teams in terms of allowing this tackles force per reception explosive plays. Guards after catch moments. Sounds an awful lot like a Mike McDaniel offense. Love it. Love it. Newton. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe I'm just talking too much with you. I mean, we have same super bold to final two teams. Yeah. Chargers. 50 points a week. Oh, that was disgusting. That was disgusting. At least we picked different winners. That made me feel a little bit better. And we were bold. We're like, I think we're the only ones without the ramps in there. So just for fun. Like, you know, sorry, but this is this goes to the hipster thing. I'm never

1:28:29going to pick the Rams to win the Super when they're like plus five. No, it's just never picked off. It depends me. No, it depends me personally. Yeah, come on. The only time we talk was the actually that's a lie. I did. I think that no, they weren't the favorites. But the 2023 chiefs, I think that was my one like chalk pick, you know, like, but they worked out. But no, I know that's that's the thing. It's so much fun. Like, of course, the Rams are the favorites, but it's yeah, crazy NFL like shit. Yeah, all the time. All right. My Hill Mary is both. I want to talk about different game, but I talk about this is a game where you dove deep on, but both the Vikings and Packers will score on a 50 plus yard touchdown this week. Both of us bold. I originally I was going to do the just the Packers in Christian Watson, but I don't know. There's some should do 40 yards just to get myself a little leeway, but 50 sounds good. 50 plus yard touchdown both sides of the ball. But I think there's going to be some big place here. I think this that game is just going to be highs and lows

1:29:30for both sides of the ball highs and lows. I don't think there's going to be a lot of between. I think it's big plays for both sides all for all four units. I should say, but yes, again, that's so I have the Vikings Packers scoring on both scoring on a 50 plus yard touchdown. And you have the charger scoring a 50 burger of 50 deluxe, a 50 rib eye, 50 ounce rib eye. Let's go with that in week one. So I like that. But you again, we're getting you guys. The listeners involved. Give us your bold predictions for the weekend. I'll tweet something out and we'll pick one to represent football three on audience every single week or tag Nate Tyson leave a Nate underscore ties or leave a comment on Tuesday show on YouTube for your bold predictions or your hell marries. All right. This one is from the J man on Twitter. Apparently you're referring to himself in the third person you'll see the J man thinks that the Eagles defense will overwhelm the commanders on all three levels and then ill equipped play collar and David Blow his head will be spinning so badly that it results in the Eagles defensive shutout commander score zero points.

1:30:34I like that one. That that was a fun one. Yeah, it's both both fun one. Talk about questions that we want to see answered week one. David Blow, Sean Manion, how did Jane Dane knows and J. Hurtz playing those offenses? I like the Eagles in that game pretty easily because I have no idea what to do with the commanders right now. And I think they just have such a big town advantage there. So that's the one. And if you just want like a little second one, I really like this. I can't remember who sent it in. I'm so sorry. But Nate Borkertcher will score a touchdown for the jaguars in week one. It's blocking tight end season, baby. Get those gimmies. Get those little one two year touchdowns. How do you think I have this job right now? My dad caught 13 of those in his career. I think I don't think any of them went past. He had one actually like he ran on like a broken play. But most of them were one in two yarders. Well, play actions, jump balls. Yep. There we go. White tie down get rewarded. So I like that one. I was like, I have the consolation one. If you want a second Hail Mary from the fans, but we're closing it out today, Matt. That was a ball.

1:31:36But I am very excited to do this with the app for the rest of the season every single Thursday. I'll be back on Sunday night live reacting to all of week one Sunday with Hayden Winks. What we do then after Sunday night football. So again, that'll be about eight 30-ish West Coast time 11 30 East Coast time. So make sure to check that out on the Yahoo Sports NFL YouTube channel. Make sure to please like and subscribe there. And thanks again to Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Don't forget to make your picks with the Toyota game day giveaways for chances to win big prizes throughout the season. Learn more at Toyota.com slash NFL. I'm Nate Tyson. You can find me a Nate underscore ties. That's Matt Harman. You can find Matt Harman underscore B.I.B. Make sure to check out the Yahoo Fantasy forecast. Check all Matt's great stuff online as well. The written word if you're into that because we're reading again in 2026. Subscribe to us. Rate us five stars. Subscribe to the Yahoo Sports NFL YouTube channel. Make sure to like this video. Subscribe there. Would really appreciate that. Thank you to everyone behind the scenes. You guys been busted and over there. I really appreciate you. We're in for

1:32:40the long haul baby. We're breaking the glass. Here we go. The USS 2026 season is off. And thank you all for listening. Thank you for joining us today. See you guys next time.