New poll shows B.C NDP's ongoing lead, while Conservatives slide further

0:00Good things come in force. Like ukulele strings, boy band members, Oh yeah! And PayPal payin' for. No fees, no interest, no impact on your credit score. Just the flexibility to pay the way that works for you. Strum it, hum it, pay it in for. Download the PayPal app to get started. Subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com slash payin' for. Paypalling, NMLS 910457. Want to turn things now to a new Ipsos poll, which suggests the BC Conservatives are losing some of the momentum they had from the 2024 provincial election. Support among decided voters has fallen eight points from 43% during the election to 35% now. Probably not a surprise given the defecions from the Conservative Party, but is this a gift to the NDP? Well, Premier David Eby was asked that question. Here's what he had to say.

1:00Well, you know, I understand people are looking at the Conservatives and the masks that's over there right now and the stability that our government has offered going forward. I'm glad for the support, but there are so many polls and they have been all over the place over the last year. And I think for us, the focus remains moving forward with key investments in the province, growing the economy. We have a by-election right now that's underway. Obviously, we'll keep all auctions on the table, but if we ever moved in that direction, it would only be to ensure more stability for British applicants. All right. That might lead to whether there is going to be a provincial election call. We'll get to that point later, but I want to bring in Kyle Bayer. He's the senior vice president at Ipsos Public Affairs Cal. Thanks so much for joining us on this Tuesday afternoon. Thank you for having me. OK, so I guess is it normal for something like this to happen to the BC Conservatives where they void during the 2024 election?

2:01I want to know what's going on. I wouldn't be unusual if suddenly there was a groundswell of people thinking that our government was doing a better job or somehow, you know, the economy had turned around or there were things to point to for NDP success, but we don't see that. And in fact, the NDP today at 45% among decided voters is exactly where they were in the last election. So this isn't about the NDP. They nearly lost the last election because people weren't happy with them. We almost elected a party that had two to four percent in the election before that. So this is all about what's going on with the Conservatives. And I think everybody knows about the turmoil. And so in some ways, these numbers are not surprising. And some might even say with the BC Conservatives at 35%, they might have expected that number to be even lower given some of the stories that have been going on. So I guess support is going to the other parties.

3:03But there is one party that doesn't even have a name. Correct. It's scattering all over the place. It's not going to the NDP, which is interesting. So the folks who are leaving are probably not happy with the NDP. They're not considering switching there. A little bit's gone to the Greens. Four points has gone to Center BC. Two points has gone to one BC. Four points has gone to other parties. And when I scan the number of, or sort of the things that people told us would be in that category, it's a mix of bring back the BC Liberals, a little bit of BC United. And some people saying whatever Peter Milibar is going to do next. So the opportunity outside of the conservatives on the center right is sitting there for someone to take it. I don't think this is the end of the drop for the BC conservatives, or at least the potential for more is there. It's certainly interesting times that an opportunity sits there, assuming the government

4:05doesn't call a snap election. Yeah, I want to get to that in a moment. Let's talk about the bleeding in the conservative party. What does this say about Carolyn Finley's leadership? She's new to the role. Well, it's not just me. I mean, as everybody, the MLA's have left. They've talked about her. British Columbians, we asked them for their impression of her. 46% say that they have an unfavorable impression of her. 17% say they have a favorable impression. That is pretty astonishing for a new leader who didn't have a province-wide profile before becoming leader. I can't think of a time that a new leader has had these negative numbers so quickly. I mean, we asked about other leaders. We asked about Emily Lohan and Mike Bernier and Dallas Brodie. And they barely have profiles at all. A lot of people don't even know who they are. So it is really unusual for someone to come out of the gate this negative. There should be more interest in this leader, right?

5:06Well, there should be more interest in this leader, because it's a potential next premier of the province. It's the leader of the opposition, the premier in waiting. So you would expect people to focus attention. But this is still extremely unusual. Usually, new leaders take a while to get established, to get known, to build their profile. They slowly build support. This is exactly the opposite of what a new leader would want to happen. So how long before premier David E.V. calls an election? Well, it's still, even in this environment, it's still a risk to call an election. I would say they would win it almost certainly. But there's a risk that people are going to view it as cynical, that there's no actual reason for doing it, other than opportunism. But this wouldn't be the first government to do that. And not all governments who call snap elections for weak reasons lose. And we've seen in BC before the last time the NDP called

6:08the snap election during COVID, they didn't pay for that either. What did your poll have to say about David E.V. as a leader? Not bad. He has 41% favorable impressions, 30% unfavorable impressions. I think opinions have settled on David E.V. over the years. I will say we asked a favorable versus unfavorable question here as opposed to an approved or disapprove of the job he's doing. And it is possible for people to say, you know, I like the guy. I have a favorable opinion of him, but still think he's not doing an acceptable job as premier. So I expect if we'd asked approved disapproved, the numbers wouldn't have been quite as strong. But I think people are settled on him. And it's kind of a little bit of good and a little bit of bad for him. What about the Greens? Any thing about them? Did they get on the radar at all? They're barely on the radar. They got 8% in the last election. They are at 10% in this election. Sorry, in this poll, we asked about Emily Lohan.

7:12Very few British Columbians know who she is or have an impression over so far. 12% say they have a favorable impression over 15% say they have an unfavorable impression. So that leaves, you know, 7 and 10 British Columbians why they're having her to her or don't really have an informed impression over yet. Was there an appetite at all for an election? Not asked in the poll. Yeah, fair. I bet if we asked people, they almost always say, even when they're angry, they almost always say no. People don't like to have elections too often. So I bet there isn't among many. And I can't think of anyone who would benefit now, except for the new Democrats. Yeah, I think that once we figure out this party of 7 now, under Peter Millibar, whether they have more defecions, whether they grow and what their name will be, what do you think their name needs to be? Because, you know, we know that the BC United struggled after they became the BC United

8:14from being the BC Liberals. The name change didn't really resonate. This new party has to have a name that really resonates. And people will remember, right? It does, but I would suggest the leader itself is going to be much more important than that. And a sense for voters that this is the party where this is the party you can support to get something that's not the NDP and not the conservatives as they are today focused on some very specific issues that don't resonate with the broader voters in BC. So not so much the name. It's the leadership and a sense that the momentum is there to ideally encourage more conservatives to move conservative MLAs to move to this new party. That's really what it's going to take. If we don't have MLAs moving, it's tough to see how the vote isn't going to be painfully split

9:16for the center right in the next election. Yeah, the momentum seems to have slowed down a bit. Yes. But you never know. The year is young. Oh, yeah. The things can change quickly. There was a time where there was Pierre Piaulier, was certain to be prime minister of our country. And that didn't happen. And those kinds of things can happen in provincial politics too. For sure. It all depends on the context, the broader context. Kyle, really appreciate your insight to this poll. Have a great day. Thank you so much.