NBA Western Conference Over/Unders: Our Picks for ALL 15 Teams

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1:01Either way, they make it simple for you to see your options. No guesswork, no surprises. Ready to see how easy and fun shopping for car insurance can be? Visit progressive.com and give the name your price tool a try. Take this stress out of shopping and find coverage that fits your life. On your terms, progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates, price and coverage match limited by state law. Every game day you show up for your team, now it's your time. Ask your prescriber about Wigovie, some magletide injection 2.4 milligrams, a GLP1. Call 1-8334 Wigovie or visit Wigovie.com to view the Medication Guide and to learn more about Wigovie. Why wait? We go need. Welcome to Good Take, part of the Real GM Radio Network. Today, we're doing our Western Conference Overunders.

2:03Last week we did our Eastern Conference Overunders. So you're going to have all of this out there on your feed available to listen to right now or whenever you end up doing your picks. We also have Mo and Jared over at the Double Dribble Podcast running through their division previews. I'm also bringing in guests from my division previews every Tuesday for Real GM Radio with Wes Goldberg. Then it's Mike and I here for Good Take every Thursday, like I said, overunders this week and last week, Eastern Conference last week, Western Conference this week. So then we'll be done with those. And then next week we're going to start our predictions of the top 10 offences and top 10 defenses in the league for next season. Make sure you subscribe to Real GM Radio. You follow along on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. Let's jump in. All right, Wes Goldberg here with Mike Sheer. We've got our Western Conference Overunders today. We did the East last week. So you guys can go back and catch that if you haven't already. Mike, I thought the West was a little bit harder than the Eastern Conference. What about you? I also feel that way.

3:04And I also feel that the West is just like way, way worse than I was expecting because when I initially did the same exercise, I went through and out of the 15 Western teams, I had 11 unders. And I'm like, all right, the math isn't adding up here. I need to go and just pick a couple that I don't really feel that good about and flip them into overs just to make that work a little bit better. So I was like a little surprised because the East was actually sort of the opposite. I had a lot more overs initially and then I had to talk myself down on a few of them, which is not to say that I think that the East is like overwhelmingly better than the West necessarily. I just think that I'm looking around at what a lot of these teams did and I'm just sort of unimpressed at their summers. So I had seven overs in the East. I ended up with nine overs in the Western Conference. So this is setting up for a lot more, I think, debate than and disagreements at the very least than we had in the Eastern Conference one, which we kind of agreed on, I would say like 90% of it. It doesn't sound like it's going to be the case today. Before we jump into our overunders, just a reminder to hit that subscribe button to support what we are doing here. All right, Mike, let's start at the top with our overunders here in the Western Conference.

4:05We're also going to have to make a lock for an over and one lock for an under on today's show. So people keep that in mind. But we'll start here. We're going to go in alphabetical order because that's how you sent me the list of overunders. So let's start with the Dallas Mavericks. Their win total 35 or 34 and a half, 34.5. They won 26 games last year. Where did you end up going with this one? For the Dallas Mavericks, I went under. And I think this is a team where it's like very easy to be like, Oh, Cooper flags the best player. Cooper flag is going to be a lot better. Kyrie is coming back. They should just be better. But I think there's like a lot of things that are sort of working against them, which this roster still makes no sense. I'm looking at it. It's basically, here's something hilarious. If when Cooper flag is drafted in a vacuum, you're probably thinking this guy is going to be a power forward. He ends up being mostly small forward last year, which is fine. If you look at the ESPN death chart right now, they have Cooper flag is the third point

5:06guard in the fifth power for it. Okay. And they're right. That's correct. And that just shows how drastically in balance this roster is. I worry that Messiah has learned nothing from the failures of Project 6.7 and Toronto. They've got a brand new coach in Dusty May, which can be a positive or a negative, you know, the track record on college coaches making the leap is very up and down. So right now, he's just a question mark. We don't know if that's going to be help if that's going to be helping or hurting. I'm always worried about Kyrie getting hurt. I'm always worried about Kyrie just getting becoming discontented and wanting to move. There's just they also have the league's second hardest schedule for whatever that's worth. According to Hoops menu, they had tied or they're tied for the most back to backs. I just I think there's a lot of things working against this team. Even if you believe that Kyrie coming in is obviously going to be positive and Cooper should be better. I also went under here. There's just way too many ways that this goes wrong. And there's really only one way that this goes right and they get over, you know, 35, 36, something like that wins. The only way they go over is if Cooper flag takes this dramatic leap and Kyrie Irving is

6:07awesome, 90% of what he was and then healthy for the entire year, which we just haven't seen very much of from Kyrie Irving. There's so many other ways that this goes wrong where Cooper flag doesn't all of a sudden blossom into a top 20 player. He's going to be very good. I don't know that he's going to be that good. Maybe he could, can be Kyrie Irving could get hurt. And then all of a sudden this like mismatched roster doesn't really work. And I also look at this roster and I'm like, where is the ball handling? Right. There's just not a whole lot. I still don't really consider Cooper flag as a primary ball handle or even though he was asked to do that a bunch as a rookie. If Kyrie goes down, they have Marcus Sasser who's a nice little pickup for them, but like that's it. Right. And Marcus Sasser isn't exactly driving into a teeth of a defense and creating offense for you creating open shots. He's more of just sort of bring the ball up and get people into motion. So I just, I had a hard time with this because I like this roster in a lot of different ways because I think it's interesting and kind of fun and whatever. But I don't think they're going to win a lot of basketball games. The other reason too is so they were 27th and offensive rating last year, 19th and defensive

7:12rating is improvement from Cooper flag and Kyrie Irving coming back enough to get them into the top half of the league in either of those categories. I don't really know. Maybe this is a team that could put a really great defense together, but they're offensively, they have a lot of uphill work to do here and I just don't really see them being able to do it. So I have them under 34 and a half wins also. It feels like too much of a leap. They basically have to win 10 more games to pass this over. And I just don't see it happening. So we're broken under on Dallas. Like you said, there's a lot of really good and interesting players on here. It's one of those teams and there's actually a few of those in this conference, which I feel like the last couple of years there'd been most rosters more or less made sense outside of some of the bottom feeders designed to lose this year and in this conference there's several that I'm like, I don't understand like what the team building strategy is here. And this is one of those. There's a lot of talent. I think the sum is just going to be less than the total is going to be less than the sum of the parts.

8:13Next up is the Denver Nuggets. I think one of the more interesting overunders on this list. They won 54 games last year. We've got 49.5 as their win total over under where'd you go with this? This one was one of the two hardest ones for me to pick because I do believe in YoKitch as just a regular season machine. You know, he played 64 games last year, but he's that's still pretty available by today's standards. And that's basically the fewest he's played since he's been a superstar. That's just a foundation for a successful regular season. But man, every year they just get a little bit thinner and a little bit thinner. And you're banking on better health now from guys like Christian Brown, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon. And you know, none of those guys have a perfect track record health wise because the bench gets pretty grim pretty quickly. I've always been a big test Jones fan. I think last year he was not particularly good. And I'm worried that at his age he's not going to be, you know, getting better. Marvin Bagley's like way too important for this team. Even Marvin Bagley's like a perfectly, you know, cromulent back up big, but like he

9:13might be their backup center right now. Lonnie Walker wasn't even in the league last year. The DeMar de Rosen thing will be interesting. Like he's a pretty good bench anchor. I'm not sure how well he's going to fit with Jamal Murray and YoKitch though. So then if he's only playing, you know, 10 minutes, 12 minutes, 15 minutes a game, ideally, he's going to get more than that, of course, but ideally, I don't know how much of an impact he's going to have. So it just feels like, if Jamal Murray gets hurt at all, which he has in the past, I'm like, this team's going to go into a tailspin. If YoKitch has hurt at all, like this team's going to go into a tailspin, right? So I had the under. I'm going over on this. They've won 50 plus wins each of last four seasons. They've got neatly YoKitch. I just didn't overthink it. This was one of the harder ones though, right? Like I had to tell myself, don't overthink it because I thought about all the things that you just talked about. The constant just drain of talent over the last few years with the, maybe the more the most questionable bench that we've seen from this Denver Nuggets team in a quite a while. We've seen some bad benches to be clear.

10:13Yes, we have. And this is the first time where I'm like, you know what? I don't even know if they can cobble together enough bench minutes to make this thing work. But as long as, to me, as long as YoKitch plays 65 games, they clear the over here. And to your point, he's been mostly available for that many games over the last few years. They go wonder if YoKitch misses a bunch of time. I even think they could probably sustain Jamal Murray going down for a little bit. But if they miss YoKitch, that would be, I mean, obviously that's it. So I want to talk a little bit about Demarderozen. The more I've thought about this, I think the more I've liked it, I don't know that he's going to have to fit with Jamal Murray and Nicolio Kitch. I actually like the idea of Demarderozen anchoring those bench units. And that allows Jamal Murray and Nicolio Kitch to play more often together. And I think those, we're going to get more of those minutes, which have always like Blitz teams, right? Those are Denver's best minutes every single year. But they just, they can't do them as much because they have to stagger both Murray and

11:15YoKitch so aggressively. If you've got the Rosen as your bench table setter, I do think that allows Malone, Malone. Who's their coach now? Adam and David Adam, to basically put Murray and YoKitch together more often, which means, okay, maybe now they're blitzing these teams a lot more during the game. Maybe this leads to more blowouts, a little bit more rest in the fourth quarter for YoKitch and Murray. And maybe that way they're able to stay healthier. And as long as they're staying healthy, I think they can get to 50 plus wins. So I went over on Denver, but like this was the one I had to like really think about and kind of keep coming back to. But I ultimately just deferred to they've got Nicolio Kitch. They always win 50 games and they have Nicolio Kitch. I'll just go with this. Yeah, it's, it's always a bummer to pick an under on a team when the upside of that team is championship, right? And I think most people agree that the nuggets are at the very least like a French contender. And I'm still a little bit higher on them than I think that, which, but two, two YoKitch related things real quick is one, you know, every year for basketball poetry, I write a column that's like unlikely, but plausible predictions for the season, which is I keep

12:18distinct from, you know, hot takes bold takes because I think I put a lot of thought and statistical analysis into these. But one of them last year was there's no way that YoKitch can lead the league in on off for a fourth straight year, right? That's just the math behind that seems impossible. They really bolstered their bench last year with like Valentinus and hard away. And Kim Johnson was there as a starter, but hopefully helped run the bench. Well, guess what? He did again. And this year I am very confident that he's going to lead the league in on off because I think there is a huge gulf between the bench probably they got last year and what they'll get this year. So I'm ready for him to have like a plus 30 on off to set the record MVP type year for YoKitch. Could if, if, if for the voters who factor on off stuff in, I think that's going to be a very compelling case. The other thing is like, are you going to go? I know. We will. That's the on off stuff. I've been joking for a while now that I think Nicolay Okitch invented on off numbers because they are always so favorable to him. And it does seem like the voters all of a sudden cared about on off way more. And I do wonder if this has to do with Russell Westbrook winning MVP a few years ago where his

13:20on off numbers weren't amazing. And then all of a sudden we're like, oh my god. Have you seen these on off numbers? Have you seen dunks and threes calm and all this kind of stuff? And all of a sudden people are like on off numbers. Like the only thing that matters in the MVP conversation. So they've always been very, very, very, very, I take, I take jokes. YoKitch obviously very deserving MVP. What was your other thing? And his on only numbers are always great too to be clear. So, but the other thing was, are you worried at all about any distraction to the team? Let's say they just come out to say a slightly slow start. They're nine and eight, 17 games in the season. YoKitch, there's going to be a lot of swirl around YoKitch's future in Denver. And I think that's probably unfair to the guy who has never said anything other than he wants to stay in Denver and tends to shy away from the limelight anyway, right? But like we know that that story is coming if they come off to a slow start. And even if they don't, honestly, maybe I do worry about that potentially being a distraction. We've seen that be a distraction for teams in the past. Even if YoKitch doesn't tend to be a distraction himself, just the swirl and the constant questioning of teammates and coaches, right? Like that does add up over the year. Some a little concerned about that too. Yeah, Matt Moore, who I do locked on NBA Daliya with and then covers Denver for locked on nuggets.

14:24He was talking about this the other day about how like every time they're on the road, one of these reporters is going to be like, I'm going to ask YoKitch about his extension. As if he hadn't been asked about that like 10 times already this season. And so that's just the sort of thing. If it were any other star player, it's a good question. If it was any other star player, I'd probably worry about it more. Nikoli YoKitch, I think, just doesn't really care. And he's got this sort of LaZai Fair attitude about it that I actually think is a good thing in this case. And I think that'll probably trickle down to the rest of the roster there. Golden State Warriors, their win total over under set at 40 and a half. They won 37 games last year. I'm going to tell you where I'm going with this right away. I'm going under. Jimmy Butler is not going to be back until mid season ish. Like we don't really know when he's going to be back. Yeah. And besides that, they might be as healthy as they are right now. I'm not counting on Christophe Sports and just playing a ton of games. I'm not counting on Al Hoerford playing a ton of games. Steph Curry quietly injury prone the last few years.

15:26Always has like one stretch regular season where he misses a big chunk of games. Dremon Green, same thing. I just don't really know how this team goes over. Really, the only way I go over is like really, really great health luck at the start of the year. Then Jimmy Butler comes back and they're able to squeak over at 41, 42, 43 wins, something like that. I'm not going to dismiss it. I did have to think about it, but there's just so many more ways that this goes under than it goes over. The one thing that Mike, I keep kind of going back to is, why would Steve Curry come back if this was going to be a 37-win team again? And I don't know if he thought that something else was going to happen this off season, like LeBron James or something else maybe. But does he know something? I don't know. Because I don't know why. Unless it's just hey, money talks. Maybe he just knows how much his bank account is going to increase the year. Coaching again, but I just couldn't get over on the Warriors. And that seems like a pretty low number at 40.5, but too rich for me.

16:28I went under. Yeah, I was the same. And it's like for any of these teams, you can look and be like, okay, if they're best player misses a big chunk of time, they're going to hit the under. For the Warriors, it just feels like if any of their top four guys misses a chunk of time, they're probably going to go under. No Moses Moody for a while, either it's worth remembering. And like I like Axelanderburg pick. I like Brandon Williams. I like having the Anthony Melton back, but like Melton's another guy who's just never available. So I think this team's ceiling is actually quite high. I think they can absolutely win a playoff series if they can get all their guys together. But just the odds of that happening are like if we're doing over unders and you're, you know, somebody who's placing a bet, I just don't see how you can make that bet. Because I think 40 and a half is actually like pretty, pretty generous. They won 37 last year. It's worth remembering that like Dreymon Green basically can't play without Steph now. Like if Steph gets injured, it's not just that you're losing Steph. That you will have to bench Dreymon much more. There were a minus 11 and a half and 2,000 possessions with Dreymon Don on Steph off last year. And there's no way that's going to get better this year. So I yeah, there's just too many things that have to go right for me to feel good about this team.

17:32Even if I acknowledge their top 5% tile outcomes are very strong. Because I do think like the on paper roster of like Porzangus and Horford and Jimmy Butler and Dreymon on Steph is very powerful. But that's just so many guys that are never available or are never available together. Right? Like that. That's just not a smart bet to make in my opinion. Yeah, somebody taking the over maybe award years, Finn Villa will definitely played 43 games or whatever it was last year. And we won only a few more, a few fewer games in this over under. Okay, but Jimmy Butler is going to miss the first half of the season. Yep. And so. Yeah. Sorry. Moody. I mean, Moody. This might be the most shallow team in the NBA. There is absolutely no depth. And the one thing that the one team for you that can beat these guys, we'll talk about in a few minutes. Yeah, there's a few, but I look at this group in particular and I just think, what were you doing this off season? Like what were you doing over the last couple of off seasons and seasons? They have been star hunting nonstop.

18:32And my concern with the Warriors was never, hey, do you have enough star power? We all know what golden state ceiling is. The problem is that their floor was always so low. It's why every golden state Warriors lost felt like extra bad. It felt like they just threw up all over their own shoes. They couldn't just lose a basketball game regular. They had to do it embarrassingly every single time. It's because their floor was so low and you would just walk away from that game being like, does this team even belong in the NBA sometimes? And then other games they'd look like, oh my god, Steph and Dremon, they're back. Jimmy Butler, like world beaters again. You don't want to see this team in the playoffs. The gap between their ceiling and their floor was maybe the biggest in the entire league over the last few years. And they kept spending their time trying to do things that would increase their ceiling, like adding LeBron James. LeBron doesn't increase your floor at this point necessarily. I always thought this team had a talent problem, like basically five through 11, where you have just a lot of dant any meltins hanging around, who are okay players, but not good enough and certainly not available enough meltins case to really make a difference.

19:33There's a lot of will-richard happening in Golden State. There's a lot of geessantos happening in Golden State, where I would have been looking for them. Again, the poor thing is that I also never made sense to me. I would have been looking at the Montess Abonus if I were them. Just a guy who can, yes, has concerns, but is a great rebounder, can score you, you know, 15 points per game, just waking up, rolling out of bed, double, double machine. I just, stuff like that that is just bottom of the ledger production. They just needed that so badly. I have a little different take on that than you. I think to me, it's not necessarily, I'm actually a little bit higher. I think on their bench pieces than you are. To me, it's less about the raw talent. It's more like they're just at such an athleticism disadvantage, because their starters are also old. And even their younger guys, it's like, but Jameski's not like a super athlete. Geessantos is all right. You know, Milton Small, Gary Paten's small, oh, he's an amazing athlete in his prime, but he's mid-30s and just small. Like they're all small and they're generally not like a super athletic bunch.

20:35I actually think like the bench has, like, I think Pajewski does have some upsides. He's gotten better every year of his career and like people like to hate on him and for whatever reason, he doesn't seem like he's super popular even in Golden State. But I think he's gotten a little better every year. I think Will Richard, you mentioned, is a guy who could have a little bit take a step forward. Geessantos is overtaxed for sure. Like there was a lot of Geessantos last year. But I do like him as a guy who's just like flying around and throwing out his throwing his body around it. Same thing with Gary Paten who was secretly like kind of good last year. So again, this is a thing where like I do think like the upside is high. It's just it's so dependent on so many things happening that I just don't believe will all happen concurrently. So we both went under on Golden State. Next is the Houston Rockets. 47.5. They won 52 games last year. I'm going over. They won 52 games each of the last two years. They have a formula that works in the regular season. This team's playoff viability. I still have major questions. But they're going to rebound the snot out of the ball.

21:36They're going to play good defense. Kevin Durant's going to make tough shots. Fred Van Vliet is coming back. I just think there is a rinse repeat formula that just works in the regular season with the Houston Rockets. They're going to win the possession battle almost every single night. And they have enough tough shot makers and enough high level defenders that just throws a wrench into the opposing team. That this team it feels like a 50 win team to me. So I'm going to go over on the 47 and a half. And I actually thought that I was kind of low. I did consider this for my lock. I think exact same thing as you. This was my second. The one I had second for my lock. I don't even feel that great about it. Because just the Rockets always leave you with a bad taste in your mouth when you watch them. I don't know why. And it might have been just the lack of true point guard play. I'm out on Read Shepherd as an NBA point guard. I think he could be a very effective shooting guard. I don't think he has the burst or the handle to be a point guard. I'm kind of getting the Rulam and Thompson too. Although he doesn't have the burst problem, right? But like, and he's gotten a little better every year. But I still don't think of him as like a point guard. So hopefully Fred Van Van Van Van Van Van Van Van Van and Marcus smart can come in

22:38and stabilize that position a little bit. But again, they won 52 games last year. And they also had the fifth best net rating in the league. It's not like it was a fluke 52 games. They're getting back major injury returns in Van Vley and Stephen Adams. And really that's they were doing even better than that when Adams was healthy. Because they were really historic offensive rebounding team. Just him being available would be a huge win for them. They signed Chip Inglien from OKC, which I think is worth noting. This is nothing to do with the Thompson's. The Thompson's are never going to be able to shoot three pointer. Stop talking about it. But I do think having a noted rainmaker shooting coach could help a lot of the other guys that are sort of up and down on this. Like maybe Atari Easton could benefit heavily, or even like a Jamari Smith could benefit heavily. Yeah, there's a lot of talent. This team is super deep. They should have stabilized their weakest position last year in terms of like just fit of their players. I don't know why they would win five games fewer than they did last season. I think that I also thought this was kind of a nod line. I do wonder if there's a leap coming from in Thompson. He's a much better free throw shooter than his brother.

23:3878% from the free throw line. Not amazing. You know, 21% to your point from three point range. Like I don't know that you can count on any of them ever being a three point shooter. But I do wonder if you can get slightly better enough that it's just enough of a swing factor there. And if they can get better. He loves that elbow jumper and he can't really make it. But if he does start making that, it's almost like back in the day when Yannis was playing with his three point shot. And it's like, you don't really need the three. Yannis, he'd know it'd be great if you could get it. But if you can just consistently hit like the 15 footer just as a counter to when there's four guys in the play against you, Thompson's kind of like that. And I think your point about the free throw one is a great one. That's proof of concept that yeah, he can make something that's not a layup. Right. So if you can start, if you can just find a spot on the floor, that's not the Dunker spot. And the Rockets could figure out ways to get him the ball there. That's great. At the same time though, it's always like, well, we could just give it to Kevin Durant. And he's just going to probably hit this every single time. But when they're, you know, obviously not sharing the floor together, what else can they do? Yeah, we both went over on that. To me, the only real way they go under, they can't, they just can't lose Kevin Durant.

24:40And who's been very, very healthy since he's been back healthy. As long as they have Durant, I feel pretty good about them going this over. If he misses a big chunk of time, I do wonder about their half court offense. But then again, their best half court offense in those instances is just missing shots and having Stephen Adams or those other guys offensive rebounds. So maybe it's not even that big of a deal. There's just, there's a lot of ways that this goes over for Houston. So we're both over on there. Show button here. Football season is finally back. And prize picks is bringing out their best offer yet. New users who sign up will get $150 in lineups if you win your first $5 lineup. That's right. If you win your first $5 lineup, you'll get $150 in lineups. On prize picks, you simply pick two to six players, pick more or less on their staff projections and submit your lineup. Then, sweat it out as you watch your picks play out live. It's the best way to get more locked in on game day. Make all the picks you want. This football season, all in the same app. Also, prize picks is going crazy with the deals to start the football season.

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26:45Visit progressive.com and give the name your price tool a try. Take this dress out of shopping and find coverage that fits your life. On your terms, progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates. Price and coverage match limited by state law. The loss angel is clippers. Oh, the clippers. Have not been in the news very much lately. Glad we get to talk about them again. They win 42 games last year and then a bunch of stuff happens. And now they're win total over under 30.5. Where'd you go with this one? You know, I, this is more about what I want to happen than what I think will happen maybe. But I did go over here. And I think sometimes I might be crazy for this. This is a real chance these guys win 21 games last year and I feel stupid. I think sometimes we let the off, like the bigger picture stuff impact our view, color our view of like the on court players and systems. And that happened with Phoenix last year a little bit where everybody was like, you know, so upset about the suns and this and that.

27:45And they ended up crushing their over under, which is something that I also kind of might happen. Because like, at Tyleu is a really good coach. There is Garland still really good. Brandon Ingram is not a guy who's going to carry you to a championship. But he is a guy who is a productive score in useful ways when he's at his best. They kind of have a lot of interesting veterans like Max Truce is good. Rui Hachamura is good. Derek Jones Jr. is good. Chris Dunn is good. And now they've got some young fun guys like Keaton Wagler and Kobe Sanders. Like I'm very concerned about the center position. Like Brook Lopez is really starting to show his age. I think Isaiah Jackson is just not very good. You know, Yannick Good, Neaterhouser was pretty good in his brief time last year. Who knows when he comes back this season? The downside is significant. Like they went five and 12 without Kui last year and they don't have James Harden to prop them up this year now. So we'll see like if Darius Garland gets hurt, which he's been certainly known to do, like this team is going to have real problems. Maybe the biggest difference between them and the sons is like the sons had all these guys who had a chip on their shoulder about the way peep teams people talked about their team. Like Dylan Brooks is like I win everywhere I go. Devon Booker is a franchise mainstay and he felt disrespected.

28:48You know guys like Colin Gillespie out there and Jordan Goodwood out there are real try hards. We're going to bring every night. I don't know that Clippers necessarily have that same makeup where they're going to like be invested in their team success as like a FU to the critics. You know, so I'm worried about that part. I don't know that the mindset's are going to be quite the same. But I feel like there is more talent on this team than people are giving credit to. I don't think that they're going to make the playoffs necessarily. But yeah, if there's like they could be 11th and then like maybe a team above them has some injury problems they can slide into the last play in spot. I think that's like feasible. So I'm going over here even though certainly I don't feel great about it. This team stinks and I think they're going to go under. That's probably the sainter response. Yeah, that's probably the sainter one. So I was kind of thinking about my starting fives the other day and I did a tier list over at lockdown heat about this. And I had the Clippers as like a bottom tier starting lineup. I just, Garland is the only player I feel good about. Brook Lopez at this stage of his career is a big question mark.

29:48Derek Jones Jr.'s you're starting for is starting to feel dated. It's I'm just not sure that that's what they think it is. Brandon Ingram. I think he's I've actually been like a Brandon Ingram. I guess believer over the last years. I think he's been kind of unfairly criticized. I think he's a lot better player than people give him credit for. But on this particular team, I kind of hate the fit. I understand that they need scoring. I don't know they need that kind of scoring. I maybe I'm wrong. Keen Wagler is going to be asked to be very good very early. And there is Garland again. Didn't play a lot last year but played 75 games a year before that. So I don't really know what to expect from Garland in terms of his of availability. He's supposed to be healthy right now. So hopefully he'll play. But I have real questions about this roster. Chris Dunn feels like a player that I'd want on a winning team but doesn't really make an impact on a bad one. He's kind of like Alex Caruso who didn't really do much in Chicago in terms of like swinging games. And then all of a sudden he's in Oklahoma City. He's like one of the biggest X factors in the league.

30:50Why did they bring Bradley Bealback? I don't know. They have Max Truce who just feels like he's going to get traded. They have everybody at Chimura who I guess could start potentially. But like again this guy is used to playing in playoff games. Is he really to your point earlier going to be the kind of guy who's like I'm here to prove people wrong. I can lift the clippers back from mediocre whatever. I just I don't know man. There's too many bad vibes. I am going to like factor in all of that off the court stuff. I mean the they're general manager is even a lot in the building right now. I don't I don't know the only way I see this team going over my biggest swing factor for them is Tyleu. Yep. He is just able to cobble together these lineups and make things work. And I do wonder if Tyleu is almost coaching for his next job right now. Because if I'm Tyleu I'm like how many years of draft picks don't we have? What exactly happened with all of this that I was not involved in at all. Nobody talks about Tyleu and any of this scandal stuff. He's just sort of this bystander. There's just like wait so you asked me to cover up for all these dumb,

31:53quiet injury, non injury, all this stuff deal with all this lineup and stability. And at the end of the day I don't get to coach any of these guys and I have one Western comments finals appearance to show for it. So does he just coaches butt off and basically audition for a good job somewhere else. I could see that maybe happening in the clippers squeaking by this 30 and a half over under. But I'm going to go under here. Although I had to think about it but I just I think the bad vibes will ultimately creep in and it'll it's just going to be a weird just tough, weird feeling near for them. Yeah, I think that is very likely. All right, the Lakers are next. They won 40, sorry, they won 53 games last year. Their win total is 46.5. I'm going over. Basically I think there are offenses going to be good enough to get them over this number. If they're going to be a top 10 offense, I kind of feel like they will easily hit 47 plus wins. I looked at the top 10 offenses and offense of rating last year.

32:56Nine of the 10 one more than 46 games. They would have cleared this over. The only one that didn't was the Charlotte Hornets and that's after a weird slow start. They also have this crazy run in the second half of the season. But even give me 99 to 10. I feel like these teams typically that have these top offenses. There is just a rinse and repeat element to a great offense, especially one that's run by Luca Donget who you just know what to expect from every single night. Where he's either just he's merely great or best player in the world every single night. As long as Walker Kessler gives them something there, right? Five games last year, 58 games a year before that. As long as he's out there and available, I think there's enough here offensively that in the regular season, they'll be able to go over JJ Reddick. I think is fine as an offensive coach. I guess we'll see a little bit more, but he's always had either LeBron or Luca to basically just run the offense through. I think very underrated as a defensive coach, strangely enough. I think he's more of a defensive coach than an offensive coach at this point. So I think he'll get enough buy-in defensively for enough of the season.

33:56There'll be nights where they just don't bring it. But there'll be nights where they definitely bring it and they look pretty good on that end. So I'm going over the 46 and a half and I feel pretty good about it. Yeah, I'm the same way as you like. They won 53 games last year and yeah, the team is definitely different this year, but you can argue in ways that make more sense. Like the roster clearly is coalesced around Luca. Every Mavericks offense was top 12 or better, basically, since they had Luca Donchic. So I think the top 10 is very reasonable and Reeves and Luca are so good together. Like I'm certainly offensively and to your point, Reddick's always spun up like reasonable defenses. So if they're like seventh in offense and they're like 15th, 16th in defense, like that'll be a 47 win team, you know. I am worried about the depth a little bit. Like I'm not a Jake Luravia guy. Like if he's not hitting his arteries, I don't really know what else he's bringing to the table. People love to talk about it as this like high level cerebral connector on both sides. And I think that in some cases, including Luravia's, that just means he's not very good at very many things. I'm like, Mahmoud Kallich-Villy in Jared Vanderbilt are like fun, small ball centers,

34:57but Mahmoud's a huge defensive liability and Vanderbilt's a huge offensive liability. Like there's a lot of people talking about how important Zaire Williams is to this team too, which makes me a little nervous. But this really, that said, like there's enough guys on here that I think have notable strengths, even if it's weird, even if they're strong one place in week and another. And I have a lot of faith in Reddick as a coach to put guys in positions to succeed. So yeah, I'm nervous about like Luca's health and Reeves's health and I'm nervous about the depth and I'm nervous about the defense a little bit. But I think to your point, right off the bat, I think was exactly right. Like Reddick's really good. There's enough talent on here to coax 48 wins out of this roster. Yep. The only thing with the Lakers, they don't, they can't really make a mid-season trade if something goes south. So they don't really have that sort of insurance plan of, hey, if Reeves is out for a bunch of time, like they're going to just basically be like, Colin Sexton, can you do it? Oh god, that makes me nervous.

35:58Right. Does anyone else in the league notice that when teams get serious about wanting to win basketball games, they ship Sexton out? Like this has happened like three straight times. I don't understand how nobody else has seen this pattern. Like I think Sexton might be one of the most like overrated players in the league. And he seems like a very nice guy actually. So I think like my very brief interactions, you know, or like everyone who's interact with them says that he's like a very cool guy. So I feel bad saying that. But I just have never understood the league's love affair of Sexton. Sandra Mom of Mama Kiela Shvili. Big time potential of look good. One place got to the Lakers look bad. Like could be the winner of the Gabe Vincent award this year. And I like I like Mammu. I hope it works out. I like but like then you get like the Lakers spotlight on him. He goes from Toronto to the Lakers. And I don't know. Cameron Carr. Winner of the Jalen Hood Chafino award of. Can we talk you into trading for Cameron Carr? Like I got to see the Lakers fans be like, Hey, he's pretty good guys.

37:00Can we trade him for something? So a lot of awards on this team. So I feel even better about my over now. Well, winning happening. The Memphis Grizzlies 28.5 is their win total. They won 25 games last year. This one was easy for me. Where did you land? I actually went over on this one. I'm not sure where you're going to land because I I thought about this one for a while. Is that what you had to? No. I went over. Okay. Good. Yeah. So here's my here's my I'll show you the feel for the Grizzlies. Okay. 28.5 wins is a pretty low line. Let's just say that right off the bat for a team that has a like 15 good like decent players. This team legitimately like one through 15 might be the Ducino League. Now there is a problem there which is that most of those guys are great backups. You know, there's not a lot of guys that has not a lot of top and talent yet. But Zach Edie and his 600 possessions he played last year look like legitimately one of the most dominant players in the NBA. And that's not an exaggeration. It doesn't even show up necessarily on basketball reference, right?

38:00But if you look at the rating of the Grizzlies when he's on the court plus 20 that's higher than the Thunder with SGA. That's higher than the Spurs with Wemmy. That's higher than the Nuggets with the Oakage. Like yeah, betting on Zach Edie's stay healthy makes me nervous. Absolutely. But he was so damn good when he was healthy and the team around him. And this was not a super talented team when he was playing either. Like to be clear, it's not like he was the fourth best player, right? Like there was a lot of guys that are still on the roster now and they just were winning games and he was playing really well. I think I think Can Booser is going to be as close to a star from day one. Like his skill set fits so well in terms of just like translate into the NBA right off the bat. I think the adjustment period will be very low for him. I think he's going to get really good really quickly. Cedric coward year two guy. I don't know that his ceiling is all that high but he's already a very steady sort of 3&D wing. Jeremy Grant is on the team and if nothing else, he's a productive score and floor space there. They've got a bunch of interesting centers that they can take in a couple of different ways. Like Isaiah Stewart and Quentin Post. Stewart's obviously a great defender with a tiny bit of a stretch to him. And Post is a legitimate stretch five.

39:02So like I think those are fun counters to Edie. Then they also have like these fringe options that I really like. Taylor Hendrix and Omax Prosper. You know, Tide Rooms on here. He's like an analytics god. Scotty Pippin, Camp Spencer, Jeff and Small. Like all these guys are good players. They're not great players. They might not even be starter quality necessarily. But if they can get one to two of those guards to pop and look like say calling a lesbia last year. And then they keep Edie on the court. I think this is a 30 win team easy. And like that's not saying a lot. But I think that like there's maybe more to the squad than people are willing to credit. Just because Edie missed so much time and they had so much turnover on their roster. Edie played 77 games in his first two NBA seasons combined. It's that's the biggest thing. I'm with you. But that's not really the way that I would phrase it. Because he played what 60 something game. 60 to one right. So right now it's like he played 66 the first and 11 in the second. So it's sort of a right now based on what we know. It's a coin flip how healthy he'd be. But it's not like he played 30 both years and had like this. Or not in the end. I hope he stays healthy.

40:03This might be the worst offense in the NBA. I just don't see how they do anything. Like I'm trying to close my eyes and picture a Memphis Grizzlies possession. And I don't know what it looks like. I don't like any of these guards to create offense. Like who I like Skypip in junior. I like Ty Drum. There's so many players in this roster. I like I'm going to enjoy watching the Grizzlies this year. But when they get into a half court setting. Like who is running pick and roll? That could be exactly like I guess it's Pippin and Drum. Again, I like are they high level starting point cards? I don't think so. Cameron Booser if he could be a hub on offense right away. Because I agree with you. I think he's going to be productive right away. But can he be a hub of our offense right away? That's a bigger more difficult question to answer. If he is, I could see them going over. To me, he's their ultimate swing factor. If cambooser is just that guy right away in terms of not just on court production, double double stuff, but like throw the ball into him in the block.

41:05And you're just running your entire offense through him. Right away. That's how they go over. I have questions otherwise about ball handling, three point shooting, too many spots, too many question marks. I just don't really know what on this team is stable. And I feel good about on a night to night basis. And those teams always worry me in the regular season. Because it kind of feels like you're cobbling together a new game plan every single night. And I just get a little skeptical about those kinds of teams. So I went under on this. Although I hope I'm wrong because I actually really like a lot of players on this roster. Yeah, it's kind of funny because I think one of the strengths of this team is optionality. And like they can throw a lot of different looks at you from super small to super big to like lots of shooting to like all defense. Not at like a super high level though. Like that's something you hope for for a playoff team. Not really for like a regular season. Like sort of, you know, somebody fighting for the play like play in best case scenario. So I do think that's kind of funny to your point. Like yeah, they don't have necessarily that one strength right. Maybe the swing factor is Tomas Isolo being able to figure that out every single night.

42:07Well, yeah, and as I say, Tomas is like a nice tinker in the shop, right? Like I think that he has brought in some pretty zany ideas from Europe. We obviously know about like the short substance and stuff, which I think I'll play to this team strengths. And I think he'll be able to do some cool things. So like I just think that the Grizzlies have a lot more upside than people think. And I think depth tends to carry pretty far in the regular season in a league where like injuries are so important. And yeah, but like yeah, I mean at the end of the day, this is kind of a bet on Boosert to be a star right off the bat and ED to play 60 games, which we'll see how that pans up. The Minnesota Timberwolves, they won 49 games last year. Their wind total is at 48.5. So right there, I'm going to make a prediction right now. Hmm, I think you and I have the same exact thing for this. What do you have? I so I tried to assign like a wind total to these teams when I'm doing it. And before I like really looked at the overrunners. And I peg them for 48 wins, which ended up being a half game under,

43:10which I feel terrible about because I think that this team's ceiling is so high. Like I absolutely think that they're a championship contender if everything goes right. The depth is so bad on this team though. Like it's so bad. Like this team has like six five guys that you really trust in. Ball, Edwards, DeSoumou, McDaniels, Ungo Bear. How you feel about Jonathan Kaminga, I think varies person to person. And a lot will be proven this year. But then the rest of the bench is like, Johann Barron J. Yeah, he looked like kind of fun in the six minutes he played last year as a rookie. Bones Highland who like resurrected his career and did a fun little flutter fingers every time he hit a three and hasn't done anything in his life before that. So I'm a little worried about that. Terrence Shannon was out of the rotation until he miraculously had some cool playoff moments. Like people try to talk themselves into Cody Williams. Don't talk yourself into Cody Williams. And then it's like a bunch of rookies. I don't know. I just I worry about that. And I worry about balls health. I worry about Rudy Go Bear getting older. That's a lot of negativity for a team that I think legitimately they're top in. Now come could be as good as any team in the league.

44:11Like I love the ball fit on this team. I love the idea of like Anthony Edwards truly playing next to a high impact point guard for the first time in his career. It's going to open up so many more avenues and easy scoring chances for him. I do think that the Kaminga McDaniels Go Bear front court if that's the way they go has some monster defensive potential. Like I think there's a lot of I can't this is my number one team. I can't wait to watch him on league pass rankings. I think they're going to be a blast. Yeah. Demon Philly. I was very wrong on my prediction. I have the over and I have it on my lock. Yeah. Really? Okay. I'm locking it up. This team I don't think we are prepared for how awesome this team is going to be offensively. Yeah. Like I don't really think we know because we've had this idea of Minnesota of being this defensive team for a long time. Over the last couple of years they have now transitioned to a oh we're going to we're going to be a little bit more offensive leaning. And I think this team is going to play a little bit more open and a lot more a lot faster. And I think that serves Anthony Edwards in a big way. I think we're in for the best Anthony Edwards season of his career.

45:13I think playing up tempo, playing off of a guy like Lamello. I'm predicting some crazy conversations that we're going to have with Amp this year. I think he's going to take a major leap now getting to play alongside a guy like Lamello. Being able to really just embrace being the two guard for a long time. And then whenever Lamello's off, I imagine Ant will be on and vice versa. And that's just two guys who you trust with the ball to make offense happen at a high level for 48 minutes. It gives go bear a true running mate. He must have survived when they traded for Lamello. Like the best lob throw he's had since Mike Conley was in his you know early 30s instead of late 30s. He's got to be thrilled. And I think there's enough on the bench to make it work between Dissunmoo and I like Taren Shannon and Jalen Clark. I know you like Jalen Clark. I love Jalen Clark. Yeah. Between those three, there's just enough there that I feel pretty good about it. McDaniel's can play both forward spots. Coming a can play both forward spots if he has to.

46:14I like to Isaiah Evans pick for them. I think he's sort of a knockdown shooter. I like him a lot for the value that they got him in the draft. I think he could potentially be helpful here. So I just think this team is going to be awesome offensively and you have go bear. So you're going to be good enough defensively. I just think this is going to be a regular season wins machine. I think they're going to win 50 plus games. I think they're going to do it easily. I think they're going to be one of the most fun teams to watch in the league and they're going to be productive. I have them as the over and I have them for my lock. Feel good about it. Yeah. I love that. Like I said, I had them at 48. So like them going over would be no shock to me. And what I'm rooting for, I just think the team is like you said. The team is going to be such a blast to watch and I can't wait. But a lot has to change and a decent amount of things need to go right. Like they need to be able to hit on some of these bench guys. And they could a lot of other bench guys are young and kind of interesting. Like you know, and we get freeman and Rocco is a car ski and Terence Shannon and all these guys. But I maybe Cody Williams proves me wrong. Maybe Cody Williams turns into like an awesome defensive, you know, backup forward. So we'll see. I mean, you go for it. You go from a team that was actively not trying to win games to a team that was trying to win.

47:14You never know how that's going to impact a young player. Right. Chris Finch also awesome coach, right? Yeah. This team is just always kind of around this area anyway. So yeah, I have I have him over. The New Orleans Pelicans 27.5 is the win total. They won 26 games last year. I'm going over. Hmm. And I'm going to be wrong and they're going to break my heart. I'm a sucker for the team this team. I'm a sucker for their talent. I'm a Zion Williamson guy. I've just sort of become that. I like Trey Murphy. I like Dejante Murray. I like their young guys between Queen and Fierce. I just I like so many of the players on this team. I think now they're built to play Jordan Poole a lot less with Dejante Murray back, which is also a positive as long as they stay relatively healthy. And Zion was healthy basically from December on last year. And he sounds like he's healthy finally. I think this team goes over the only way I really see them going under. And this is sort of similar to Memphis. This number is so low that I just feel pretty good about their over. Maybe not by a ton, but I do feel good about the over.

48:14The only way they go under is if they just sort of they just start selling off pieces by the trade deadline. Like a big trade Murphy deal that they pull the plug on Zion. I don't know. But I haven't gone over. What about you? I had them as an under. And I think I had almost everything that you wrote written or that you said written down as well. But I just have the odds a little differently in my head that A is not going to play 60 plus games again. Like he's done it three times in seven years. So that's a little worse than a Queen flip. B are Trey Murphy or Jones and Dejante Murray going to stay on the roster all year. Like those guys are all have some trade value you would think. And the Pelicans certainly look like they're and no rush to jettison anybody. But if the team really does suck halfway through the year, like they have to, you would think they'd have to start looking at like taking a step back to take a step forward. And then finally, like I am a little like I like Queen. Queen of fears had a very up and down rookie year, both of them. And I think that there's a chance that this team just pivots and it's like we need to just feature them more. And I think that's good for the franchise long term. I think that's good for the players long term.

49:15I think it's bad for the franchise in the short term. Right. And I think if any of those things happen, then this team is going to fall short of 28 wins. They also like two, two other things going against them. One, hardest schedule in the league tied for the most back to backs, tied for the most three and fours. Like that can't be good when you have so many injury concerns on your roster. And that's just in addition to having just a generally difficult schedule. And two, they had the third lowest 3.4 percentage allowed last year. These things tend to bounce back closer to the middle than following year. Like if a couple more of those threes go down, you know, that's going to hurt their defense. And actually, their defense has some upside. Like I think Jamal, mostly coming in, is just like such a professional. And like for whatever, Mosley's flaws are, it's never getting the most out of your players and getting the most out of your stars. So I think we, I think this team actually has like top 15 defensive potential. We saw a sharp let go on 11th last year with with a way worse defensive roster. So I think the pelicans can actually hit that. But the threes are going bad, the injuries are too bad, or if they just like focus on the young guys, which they should, that would be the prudent thing to do long term.

50:17This team is not going to hit 30 28 wins. I don't think so. I went under. Wow. I really disagree. I think that there's enough talent. It's going to be well coached. I just think it's really going to be really hard to not hit 28 wins. But I hope you're right. Maybe it's a low line for sure. This is not my luck. Like I could absolutely see it all playing out the way you laid it out. There is one. Potential monkey wrench like in December. Do we start getting reports that, you know what? Expansion isn't the shoe and we thought it was going to be. We're having a hard time finding a buyer at that price for Las Vegas. That says nothing of what this we're trying to get going in Seattle. We really just don't feel good. Maybe we have to slow our role a little bit. We've had some problems with new owners recently. And then all of a sudden are like, yeah, but Seattle and Vegas deserve a team. And then all of a sudden there's like that New Orleans buzz again. Like, uh, low attendance numbers. Do we just move the pelicans? So you maybe have that potential distraction at some point in the middle of the year. But I couldn't obviously factor that in. But I did think insurance isn't a one size fits all.

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52:25Ask your prescriber about week OV, some maglatide injection 2.4 milligrams, a GLP one. Call 1-8334-WEE-GOVIE or visit WEE-GOVIE.com to view the Medication Guide and to learn more about WEE-GOVIE. Why wait? We go need! Got it. Um, all right, Oklahoma City. 64 wins last year. 60 and a half is the win total. This team is won 60 plus wins in two straight seasons. And the year before that, I think they won like 58 wins. So like right around there, right there, season juggernaut. But the 60 and a half number is so high. I don't know how high they could have made this number for me to be like, yeah, I just don't feel good. I went over on this. I just don't know. I had to go over. I couldn't feel good going under. I had to go over. What about you? Yeah, I hate doing this because not only did I go over, but I think this is my lock. Wow. It's never good for the lock to be on the edge of the barbell.

53:28You know what I'm saying? Like you don't want to, uh, generally speaking, if you are like, oh, this is going to be the best team in the league, there's a lot more ways they're probably not going to be number one, you know? But to your point, they always are really good in the real season. They went 64 last year, basically without Jalen Williams out here. Like I know he ended up playing a couple dozen games, but he was horrible. So like, I think him coming back healthy is just such a huge, hey, yeah, they lost some guys, you know, they lost Isaiah Joe. They lost, um, Luke Dork. They lost Wiggins like the, but like Joe and Wiggins were kind of in and out of the rotation anyway. Dork is, it sounds like they were prepping for him to be on a ventral anyway because they need to make a room for Kason Wallace and A.J. Mitchell. I don't think the depth on this team like is bad. They've Jared McCain now who's going to eat up a lot of that time too. Like their depth is not actually worse than it was going into last season. They're getting Jalen Williams back healthier. Like I think Chet Honger is going to come in with a chip on a shoulder. He played great in the real season last year and then had such a poor showing against women Yama. Like you know that's eating at him. Like he's a fierce competitor. He's going to come back hard. And on top of all this like they have the third easiest schedule on the league.

54:29So like yeah it's hard to get 60 wins. It's hard to get 60 wins three times in a row. But to me this is as close to, Shay's always healthy, knock on wood, right? Like whenever Shay plays they're unstoppable. I just don't see, I mean you always, it's always injury related. But I think if this team is as healthy as they have been traditionally, they, they hit this without Jalen Williams last year. Like you know what I mean? Even healthy lately, right? Like Jalen Williams misses basically to your point most all of last season for all intensive purposes. The year before that, Chet Honger and Isaiah Hartnstein were available for like 20 games at the same time. Like they were missing both of those guys for most of the season. Exactly. Like they have missed key players. I would, for the most part, you know, for the regular season the last couple of years. And it just never matters. Yeah, one more they were starting, they started 24 on one last year, right? So like you're like, oh man, maybe like that 64 is just propped up because they were so crazy that first one. Well that means that the rest of the season they went 40 and 17, which projects out to 58 wins, right? And that's like them as their worst stretch was the last two thirds and then we're still a 58 win

55:29team trying to integrate back a clearly still hurt Jalen Williams. So I, I, I think this is, this is a lock. I didn't have to think hard about this one at all. The only other team that I felt nearly as confident about was the Rockets. I love this is your lock. It feels like a lock, man. Like I, and there's a lot of oh second Aper and these teams can't stay together. Look at the Celtics. Look at the thunder. And I'm like, wait, wait, look at the thunder. Like they lost Aaron Wiggins. I like Aaron Wiggins. I love Lou Dort a couple of years ago. Miss me on like, oh, these are the kinds of players. Team should be able to keep. No, no, we have to, we have to also live in an NBA where you can't just keep the same team verbatim every single season. Like you do have to eventually let guys go. Some people would disagree with you on that, right? Like that's not, that's not how everyone feels. Well, they're wrong. So I just like that sport like we live in a, like, okay, just get rid of the salary cap then. Let's just be baseball. We'll just do it that way. And then the thunder are totally screwed. Um, this is their bench, even having lost three guys, AJ Mitchell, Jared McCain, case, uh, not case, not case, well, AJ Mitchell, Jared McCain, Alex Cruz,

56:31O'Jaylen Williams, Ade Marra, they brought back Kenrick, Williams, they drafted Bennett, Sturts, they still have Nikola Topitz just hanging around. Um, Thomas Sorber, who I really, I liked more than Ade Marra in that, in their respective drafts, he's going to be back. This team is loaded, man. And they just have a lot of ways. So I write down wait for each of these teams. I go, how do they go over? How do they go under? And literally the only note I have is stay healthy ish for the thunder. That's it. Just stay healthy. If she stay healthy, they're going to win 60 games. It honestly doesn't matter what happens to anybody else. Yeah. And nobody's going to go and do a, a season predicting that she is going to, you know, terror, meniscus or something, right? And miss most of the season. Like you just don't make bets like that. So I am going over. It's a good call for your lock. Quick history, uh, little tidbit here. Teams that have won 60 plus games in three straight seasons over the last 30 years. Can you guess there's two of them? Three straight years in the last 60 plus wins over the last three decades.

57:31So it's like 1990. 90. But that Lakers? Nope. I don't know if the spurs ever did it like the spurs. No. I don't know. I'm terrible at guessing at trivia games. Who is it? Don't make any of those. Jordan's Pippins, Bulls. And the dynasty warriors with Kevin Durant. Yeah. Okay. That's it. Those that, well, not with Kevin Durant, the, you know, first year where they broke the wins record in the next two years with Kevin Durant. Yeah. All-time teams. So I was, I looked at that and I was like, ah, I was open to city there and I'm like, yeah, they probably are. As a regular season team, they are probably right there with those teams. Um, I think what I think the case against too is like, maybe in a league where every single team is trying to win. Maybe it's just impossible to win 60 games, you know? Or close, close to it. Like I think the one reason, the one thing that we didn't talk about is like, we know every game on the average, you can be a little bit harder this year just because there's not going to be four to eight teams that are purposefully trying to lose. And it's possible that just like the cumulative effect of having to try harder for an extra 10 to 15 games a year adds up in terms of wear and tear adds up in terms of just like,

58:34yeah, you're going to lose a couple more games because everybody's trying their best. You might have enough night and you can't just outtell it everybody. So I, I do think like there might be just a new paradigm shift happening in the league where maybe going forward, you just can't win 60 games. It's just too hard. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but that is something that I'm going to be monitoring as the season goes on. Yeah, I mean, even then, okay, see one there, game is by an average of an average of 11 points last year. Yeah. So instead of going teams out, maybe they just merely win normally. All right. The Phoenix Suns, their win total 38.5, they was surprisingly 145 games last year. I'm going over and I'm going over slightly. This was a tough one for me. I think they're defensive. You look at the stats, little lucky when you look under the hood in terms of three point shooting rates from their opponents. But I do think there's enough of an identity here that they established that I think there's a proof of concept. There's a buy-in. I think defensively, they're still going to be good enough even if there's some regression there from opponent three point shooting. They play really hard.

59:34Jordan, not so good coach. Devin Booker is a half-quart offense unto himself. I am a little worried about some slippage defensively and then some slippage from Dylan Brooks offensively because he had like an out-of-body experience basically all of last season. I don't love the bridges deal. I do love some of the other things that they did to add to the roster in particular the bench. This was a tougher one for me, but I just I went slightly over because I like the system. I like the coach. I like Devin Booker. I like the defense. With Brooks there, I think they're going to and Jordan, I just think they're going to play hard every night and I just think there's enough talent, enough gumption, giving the slight over on 38 and a half. Where are you? This what hurt me because I also like Jordan, I also like the the scrapitude of the team. I also like Dylan Brooks and Devin Booker, but I went under. I think this is going to be the team where it's like we most dramatically see the difference in like not being able to beat up on the drags of the league.

1:00:35So they went 23 and four against bottom 10 teams last year. That's more than half of their 45 wins. And those bottom 10 teams are going to be so much better than they were last season. They also had the second lowest 3.5 percential out like you noted, right? Like that's going to bump back up. And a lot of their offensive identity was dependent upon having role players who can shoot the three ball around. Devin Booker's like sort of mid-rangey stuff. And then they lost Grace Nall and Roy Sonio in that Miles Bridget trade. And like Allens and Elite Shooter O'Neill is extremely underrated in that regard. He was over 40 percent again last year. And Bridges is like he'll get him up, but nobody cares because he misses him all. So I think that like I just don't know that the recipe is going to work as well this year. I think there are some pros though. I think like maybe come on Malauatch turns a corner and he's supplants Mark Williams and Osso Iggadaro as the starter and like just looks like a future like high level starter. The bent like you said the bench is really good. I'm really I would love to see more minutes for guys like for sheer flimming and you know like Konglespie and obviously they've got Kenard and Ryan Dunn as kind of specialists when you need them. Maybe a sneaky factor here that could swing either way.

1:01:37Jalen Green going into a player option summer like basically a contract year. And he's how long have we spent talking about like oh it is Jalen Green finally going to like put it all together and become this like total package. And until last year is kind of like injury riddled campaign. Like I thought every year he made these like incremental little steps in the right direction. I don't know that they were big enough steps. I don't know that he's going to get like a massive you know kind of like free agency thing but like he's somebody who has to start thinking about his next contract and I wonder if that's going to how that's going to help or hurt him in terms of like playing within a team scheme you know like maybe that motivates him to be the best he can be. Maybe it motivates him to shoot a whole bunch even more than usual so we'll see. So sneaky thing about Jalen Green and Miles Bridges that they just traded for. You put them together and you're getting to like a max salary. I do wonder if part of the calculus in the Bridges trade because we're all looking at it like really you just traded the one first round pick you had to get this guy.

1:02:38I wonder if part of the calculus was well one distant first round pick that's not going to get us a star player or a guy making that kind of money. But if we can if Jalen Green takes a leap in this player option here if malbridge is looks better with us than he did in Charlotte. And it's part of like a try hard winning type of team not you know Charlotte obviously one last year too maybe that's not fair but I don't know maybe there's a way that I don't know I'm talking I'm trying to talk myself into it but you might have talked me into the under with that with that stat about how they beat up on the drugs the league last year now it's not going to just because teams are trying harder doesn't mean that team still won't be bad right they're going to be plenty of adidas league that they can that they could beat up on but I do wonder if there is a little bit of the shine wears off the some of the take the league by surprise stuff wears off a little bit here and if they become a little bit too one dimensional in terms of hey let's just play defense and then like give it to Devon Booker and if he doesn't get it just watch Dylan Brooks miss shots I guess because again I just don't expect Brooks to have like as crazy a good offensive year two years in a row that tends to be his pattern if they do go under I'll say this at what

1:03:44point did we start having that conversation about Devon Booker being the next star that gets traded well here's the problem right if he goes under if the sun sorry if the suns are going under clearly a lot of that's probably going to be because Dylan Brooks isn't playing all that well and his contract they inexplicably signed them to so early he is not going to have a lot of positive value I work I don't know I said that's what I said that happen what I said Devon Booker or I meant to say Devon Booker yeah that's what I'm saying I like on his salary I'm saying like salary you said yeah I'm saying for his for his salary if the team is going to if they're clearly headed towards low 30 win totals part of that is going to be because Booker's not playing to his potential playing what we think that Devon Booker should be playing like and he's got so much money left for so long I think teams are going to be real spooked and like maybe somebody can talk to himself into it and like trade them and maybe they'll have like a little positive value but I don't think he's going to get like a honest kind of package like maybe you get like a little mellow package which is not nothing but like I call George in a couple of picks to Boston

1:04:45scenario that works Devon Devon Booker joining up in place basically in place of Jalen Brown would actually be kind of hilarious because I do think there's some stylistic yeah similarities between those two other bookers a much much more willing and gifted passer but that would be kind of funny um you may have talked me into swinging on the under there like I said I was just a slight over I might go under um next one Portland Trailblazers they won 42 games last year 42.5 is the wind total uh I do not think that that's a coincidence they surprised teams last year then they make that run to the playoffs then he obdi has the all star season and then they make these big moves in the off season they go get John Marant they go get Damien the lard there's definitely questions about this roster how they all fit together but there's no questions that they added talent to this roster one of the more interesting I thought wind totals to uh to think about here where did you end up uh I see I didn't think it was it was interesting to have got all because not only did I pick

1:05:47the under but I think this might be my lock for the under um and I not because I feel that great about it because I do think the west for all I said about the west being a lot worse and like you know me being pessimistic about a lot of these teams there's this this is still the conference that has a ton of talent like none of these teams are gonna be like winning 12 games where it's still obvious that the trash you know um but I think Portland is also going to suffer kind of like the suns from not being able to beat up on the the really garbage teams they're all point guards and centers like it's Tumanikamara Denny Abdiya point guards and centers there's nobody else here it's sort of like the map it's like the inverse of the mavericks you know right um I just think that somewhere between dude somewhere between Portland Utah and Dallas I've said this before there has to be a trade somewhere between those three teams because they're all messed up and ways that should compliment each other but um yeah so Portland is like can Jon Marant and Denny Abdiya coexist together on offense right two guys who need the ball in their hands to be at the best neither of whom can really shoot can Marant and Lillard play together in the back court what are we gonna do about Scootal Scoot Henderson you know Drew Holiday was really good last year actually

1:06:51like sneakily really good but like is he gonna have to be like a small for it now I don't really love love that I'm a miconori fan but we don't really know what he's gonna look like as a head coach he has not been handed the easiest set of ingredients to cook up you know an entree with and like can Donovan Klingon take a step forward on either side or is this just kind of who he is I if my preview for a team is literally all questions I feel pretty bad about that team and so I think they're gonna be nights where these guys are gonna look like just fireworks these guys are gonna look so goddamn good on certain nights where like everybody's getting into the paint everyone's splashing threes Klingon's blocking seven shots at the rim so it doesn't really matter that everybody else is terrible on defense besides Kamara but I don't think those nights are gonna be common and I think that we're gonna look back and just be like this this team has to make a trade mid season to balance the roster a little bit better this is our first ever you're building on drum roll double lock oh wow okay this is our first ever double lock let's go

1:07:58yeah I went under I thought it was one of the more interesting thought experiments but it like that interesting thought experiment got really uninteresting really fast I was like oh oh like I like John Moran I do think that his value is as low as it's gonna be in a while I think he's gonna be a helpful player I like actually Damien Lillard being back with this team it's a great story all these things and I do think how good Damien Lillard is all the things there is going to take some time to figure out how to use this roster right it's gonna take some time and I would also argue that last year was the best case scenario for Portland so having to bet on the best case scenario two years in a row plus just instantly figuring out all these weird clunky chemistry fit issues it was just too much for me to your point way too many question marks I went under and this was an easy one for me easily under 42 and a half um but I do like the bets that they made in the office I like I like the things that they did in terms of let's just go acquire some talent fit all that stuff be damned it doesn't really matter we're not really trying to build on that 42 win

1:09:03season so much as we're trying to increase our ceiling and trying to find a pathway to our next star because it doesn't look like scoot is going to be that guy um sacrameno 20 let's do this one quickly 21 and a half is the win total over under they won 22 games last year I win over it's so low it's so low are they gonna win 18 game I mean maybe I just like they still have De Montice bonus at least for now now they could trade subonus in January of February and then I could take the under I'm just I'm going over 21.5 is so low it's so low and I still win under for you I just like this team won 22 games last year when they were really trying hard and they only got to that number because they beat up on a bunch of crappy tank fest teams g league teams at the end of the year um now let's let's frame it a little differently right like this team had some of the worst health luck in the entire league last year yeah so bonus and keegan Murray are probably

1:10:06their two most important players played zero possessions together but man they've got a rookie point guard of an archetype that generally takes a very long time to acclimate to the league they have a broken and pretty unhappy sound exactly beam I love keegan Murray I've spent a lot of capital defending keegan Murray but I would like him to get better in a season I would like him to remember how to shoot three pointers instead of getting worse and injured yeah um I'm like subonus you know I had a lot of health problems he was always healthy before he's had a lot of health problems who knows if he stays on the team and here it is they had the worst net rating against bottom 10 teams in the league last year the worst net rating against the worst teams and that is including a stretch where they beat like six garbage teams in the last month the season I guess my argument with can it get worse can't get worse and they want to take it to the last year it can't always get worse if there's one thing that being in this league for a while has taught me it's that they can always get worse and what if they're as unhealthy as they were last year only now their their rosters just even less talented right yeah and then like I think I got bought out in February and whatever yeah

1:11:08they did add Ben Simmons you conveniently left that out you know and what's the harm in adding Ben Simmons honestly like people love to clandet they're like I saw I can't remember who said this is someone was like oh it's the perfect mix of player and franchise but I just like there's no harm in adding I'm like he's not gonna hurt it they need some athleticism and size and like you can help with that I mean if he doesn't it doesn't cost you anything like I mean they just don't know what they're doing like this roster is they've been trying to tear down this roster and literally no one wants any other players so what are you what are you gonna do I don't know I I feel bad because I'd be the worst coach team in the NBA might be the worst coach team in the NBA absolutely they they also did get crushed by opponent threes last year like I think they allow the second highest three point accuracy so if you're hoping that reverts more to the median then like that'll help the defense a little bit but then again I know a surprising number of Kings fans every single one of them agreed that it was not a fluke and they were just horrible on defense terrible closeouts a lot a lot of wide open shots and they expect same thing happened this year so yeah I mean look this is this is a bad team that could literally just get worse as the season

1:12:09goes on so by just like getting rid of guys so we'll it's tough to go under 21 and a half but I I didn't know over I went over on principle but I would not bet this ever you know I thought about making this my lock and I got too scared away just like that's no way you can lock someone going I'm a non-tanking team going under 22 wins yeah I mean like Zach Levine can get just go scorching hot in November and they just they add five wins that they probably shouldn't have eaten exactly so I that said I actually think this year's team is going to be like more watchable than it has been in the past like I'm kind of excited to see a cuff play like I'm kind of excited to see more Dylan Cardwell who literally just like cheers himself on after every moderately cool play I do think he can Murray has a comeback in him I've I've think I've said that on here before like I'm I'm very high on Murray as a player and I think that this ecosystem bad as it is might just be a little bit better for Murray than it has been in the past so and like Simone is being back it should help he's at least a solid player even if he's not one that's going to take you to a championship so but man there were so bad last year and they were trying

1:13:10so hard and yeah everyone else is going to be trying again so one of those hey I'm kind of interested to watch this team and then a week goes by and you're like I'm not interested in watching this team anymore I do see that that could be a potential outcome here for sure those are some of my favorite teams to talk about um San Antonio we have two more here San Antonio 62 wins last year their win total is 59.5 I went under on this it's just mostly a numbers game we don't I know we got two teams of 60 plus wins last year very rarely does that happen in one conference I have Oklahoma City as a firm over so I playing the numbers game here I as San Antonio is a slight under I also do think hey you're in the NBA finals last year Western conference champs target on your back we're gonna play extra hard on you against you I think every coach in the league has spent this summer trying to figure out an answer for Victor Wemba Niamma not to say that they will have one but they may be better prepared for Wemba this year than they were last year I'm gonna go slight under here on San Antonio you also pop up in the hood there's some three-point shooting

1:14:13luck and stuff like that defensively for them also really hard to determine is it luck or is that Wemba just being Wemba and being out there but I'm going to slight under didn't feel good about it most of the time you're talking me into it a little bit I do have the over I think um part of the pro I can't change it though because I only have six overs I think is it is so I gotta keep six I can't go down to five overs so I'm staying over on on San Antonio I think Wemba will be healthy they went 12 and six without on last year so if he does end up missing 20 games like I think they can survive you bacon some improvement from at least one of castle fox and Harper and I think you could get it from two and hopefully all three right that's case would be all three fox bounces back Harper makes a huge leap and castle improves some on the margins at his weaknesses I like I think those are that's very plausible I still think them and the sales the most underrated player in the league except for maybe his teammate chim penny um I wish they would have added a better fourth guard than Jordan McLaughlin their top three guards are so big and so ballad Hood but like if one of those guys gets hurt like that's a lot of runtime for Jordan McLaughlin uh and to my

1:15:16saris came in and said Harrison Barnes and I think they're very similar ish players at this point in their career except Harris is just better at almost everything besides hitting wide open corner threes so I I think that like in general this team is coming back more or less intact from last year and they should be better so if they won 62 last year they they can win 60 this year but you you did make some compelling points and I'm not as confident in that as I was five minutes this was it was a tough one for me but um it it just felt like a season that where everything went right and I've just a couple of things go wrong did they win 59 games instead of 62 you know what I mean like I said I'm taking the slight under I think they'll still be one of the top two or three seats in the in the west probably top two last one here is the Utah Jazz I had something when we've started and I just flipped it so that they won 22 games last year 35.5 is their win total where did you end up on this before I give away my my flip uh I went oh I just moved away I went under yeah

1:16:16I believed in this team I believed in the vision of this team when they had Walker Kessler I was thrilled I thought that team made a lot of sense ah man without Walker Kessler they're just not gonna stop anyone and I feel bad your catch went very under appreciated last season and I think he's gonna go under appreciated as soon as this sentence but they need to upgrade like the center position honestly like Nurgutches a fine defender but it's not dynamic enough Jaren Jackson Jr. gets worse at that every single year like I think people have always been maybe a little too high on Jackson as a defender because when he was putting up like three blocks of game but the blocks keep ticking down and he's not as good at the other aspects as I think he used to be uh and like he's 26 and now he's on a team that like he's excited to play for maybe he bounces back like that's absolutely in play but like as much as I like can't it George as much as I'm excited to see there in Peterson play that's probably gonna be one of the worst defending back courts in the league outside of like you know Portland um the jazz system is built on passing and cutting and everybody who goes there averages career highs in assists right but like JJJ has always been best when he can

1:17:17kind of like ice it up from the elbow and attack off the dribble and hit his little floaters I don't know if that's gonna be properly integrated if that's gonna come up the works that said like I keep betting against Will Hardy I think Will Hardy is like a guy who can absolutely just scheme up 10 wins out of nowhere I'm excited to see what he can do fully unleashed and trying to win like I've he needs to fix that defense it's been horrible every year he's there and you kind of think that like the best coaches should always make their teams at least competent defensively and he's never been able to do that but we'll see we'll see what it looks like this year there's not a lot of defensive talent here but there's a lot of offense like this team could just maybe they just get the over because they're a top 10 offense and like Bryce Sensibon Blake Hensonard you know hitting 45% from three and Isaiah Collier is averaging eight assists in 12 minutes like there's definitely things they can do that would look really good so I don't feel confident about this but I think the defense is gonna be tough to watch I flipped it to under I was over I flipped it to under I'll tell you this is my lock as the most popular overbet in the league this season yeah there's a whole

1:18:18lot of NBA dorks that just want the Utah Jazz to be good they're ready for the Utah Jazz to be good we all like some of these players I'm part of these NBA dorks by the way like we're all just like will hearty coaching genius we're all just sort of waiting for this but it never really happened and to go from 22 wins to 36 I know that they were trying to lose and then you're trying to win so it's an artificial number it's still going from 22 wins to 36 and I do think just taking that leap as an organization proves to be harder every time we see it there's always a Utah Jazz team every single year where we're like this is the year they're gonna try and now they're gonna and like they're not gonna be tanking and all of a sudden and every year it shows yep even taking that leap just the matter just trying harder isn't enough it is really hard to break those bad habits and so I think the jazz are gonna find themselves in that spot like you I would have hammered the over on this had they still had Walker Kessler maybe the over would have been a little bit higher but them losing Kessler to me I truly believe that the Utah Jazz are going to regret that trade

1:19:23I I keep hearing all those and offer they couldn't refuse you know what you could have done refused it you didn't have to take the trade you talk a big talk about this is the year we're gonna start winning and then you end up trading one of your more important players for a bunch of draft picks reminds me of Mike have you ever been out like and like you order an espresso martini you're like oh why don't I drink these more these are awesome these are the best you know what I'm gonna bring in espresso martini guy and next thing you know you've had like three or four espresso martinis and then you just and like six hours go by and you can't go to sleep and you're up in your bed you've got heartburned like why did I do that I got way too high on my own supply I'm not an espresso martini guy I thought I was that's sort of what the jazz did they just got they they are so used to being the team that trades players for picks that that they were just like oh this is who we are we're getting this kind of offer for Walker Kessler and they they got all of this stuff and they were just drunk on a espresso martinis when the Lakers called and offered all of that stuff and they didn't and they was like oh it's a get out of jail free card on these contract negotiations with him

1:20:26and all this stuff that they just traded them and then I think I would bet even right now in that building there's regret over that trade I have no reporting on it it's my bet because they're probably looking at their roster the same way we are I mean like there is a Walker Kessler sized hole in our lineup that would have made everything click together and we really wanted to start winning this year and I'm not sure we're gonna be able to do it this year I think Larry marketing is good I think he's become slightly overrated he's not a shot creator he's more of a shot he's not a I shouldn't say that he's not a play starter he's a play finisher and that's fine but I do think people kind of bill him is something that he's not Jaron Jackson Jr very good player hasn't been as good as he's been for a couple of years now we'll see what it looks like in Utah can't do George I love and I think between marketing Jaron Jackson Jr and can't do George it should be enough to hit that over and we'll already but it might not like can't do George could take a step back you might not get anything that of Ace Bailey and Darren Peterson this young in their careers there are lineup issues galore with Kessler you said Nercut just a fine replacement

1:21:27level center when he's out what do they do is a Jaron Jackson Jr back at the five they clearly do not want to play him there he does not want to play there a lot of Jackson Hays yeah it's a lot of Jackson Hays I feel like there's some clunkiness and some politicking that they're gonna have to do with these lineups I just it's gonna be I'm telling you right now it is gonna be the most popular over bet in the league and anytime that happens I get a little bit skittish and I go you know what I'm gonna zag on this I'm going the under on Utah I think they win 30 games I don't know that they're gonna win 36 games yeah I mean I I the what does make me nervous is I think that they're the offensive potential here we're both kind of under so I said top 10 earlier like this could be a top five offense if it really looks if Peterson is hitting 38% from three as an off ball guy and Kionte takes a leap forward again another one as a point guard and they just become like so dynamic offensively and Mark and in spring three is Jackson is like attacking off the dribble like and there are benches all like good offensive guys like but leave the defense aside which I think is gonna be terrible but like good coaches can scheme up good defenses or at least like okay defensive

1:22:28that good of an offense right you're taking the ball over basket and that always you know so if you're a top if you're the fifth best offense in the league and you're the 17th best defense like that's gonna be better than 35 wins or whatever yeah for 36 wins so like I I see the upside I just I'm not convinced it's gonna coalesce together the way that like people seem to like you said like people seem to think that they're gonna be awesome and I'm not quite there yet yeah I would love to be wrong on this because again I think this roster could be so much fun in this team could be so much fun to watch but I just I get skittish when so many people are hammering the over that I'm gonna I'm gonna go the other way on it all right that's it so you're locks for your over and under were what again I had thunder over and I had blazers under that's right we had the double lock on the blazers the rare double lock on the under on the blazers I had the over on Minnesota at 48 and a half wins although I did really like your okay see lock on the over and I would have went there with my you said you would have had Minnesota as your second lock if you Houston Houston would have been my system lock yeah because I went I went under I was not that I feel good about it but I'd Houston was my second lock over I like them too so let's just make that our second lock

1:23:31lock we make the rules here okay we love it so we have two locks we have a double lock on the Houston rockets on the over a double lock on Portland on the under on 42 and a half Mike had the over on the thunder at 60.5 and I had the over on Minnesota at 48.5 wins that is going to do it for our over under podcast we got a bunch of great stuff up on the feed right now Mo and Jared are running through their division previews on the double dribble I'm bringing in guests for my division previews every Tuesday then it's Mike and I here for good take every Thursday over under are done so you can revisit these whenever you're going to make your picks uh used to win up last week the west is going up obviously right now next week we're going to be predicting our top 10 offenses in the league next season those are one of my favorite shows to do every single year make sure you subscribe to real GM radio and follow along on youtube and wherever you get your podcast you

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