My thesis on where Bitcoins price goes from here.

0:00I'm finding it difficult to be bullish, which is actually making me bullish. That might sound counterintuitive, but there's a part of me that is scared. And that part is a bear, right? That part of me is feeling like something could be wrong, that why are we seeing the price action we're seeing? And if I'm feeling that as a seasoned Bitcoiner, as someone with absolute confidence in the underlying structure and the game theory that plays out with Bitcoin, then I am definitely not alone. And this fear is what is driving people to sell their Bitcoin and for Bitcoin's price to have corrected from 125 to where it is at now of 70K. So because I'm not alone there, and I understand that other people are feeling this fear. And historically, if you buy an asset with long-term fundamental properties of increasing in value, when people are bearish, when people are scared, you will have outsized returns.

1:00This is the concept of being greedy when others are fearful and being fearful when others are greedy. This is the counter trade. This is the using the fear and greed index to decide when to double down on purchases. So let's get a little bit more into this. But first, my name is Forest Total. I'm a Bitcoin educator. I do one-on-one coaching sessions for anybody looking to up their best practices for Bitcoin around security, inheritance, running a node, Bitcoin mining, whatever you need help with. I am essentially Bitcoin tech support. You can reach out through my website, pathtobitcoin.xyz. And you can also join my learning community for two exclusive courses around Bitcoin and meet a bunch of other great Bitcoiners on there. And that is through school and it's linked in the description as well. The market isn't ever perfect, and that's what essentially makes it as close to perfect as something could be. Another counter intuitive sentence there, but essentially the market is decisions, human choices

2:01of selling something or buying something. And the market reprices to the last sale or exchange or transaction, however you want to explain it. As an individual, the only argument you have against the market price of something is to withstand from actually exchanging that something until you agree again with the current market price. So that goes for buying or selling. If you don't think now is a good time to buy, the only choice you have is to wait. If you don't think now is a good time to sell, the only choice you have to make is to wait. And I think Bitcoin's price right now is at that stage where there's a lot of people just waiting. So what I think is most likely to happen from here, and of course this is just a probabilistic future. All futures are unpredictable inherently. But I think that there are events that are more or less likely to happen. So if I have to predict something, if I have to say that what I think is most likely,

3:04not to guaranteed to happen, but most likely in my opinion, is that we trade for three to six months between $57,000 and $87,000. And I know those are broad ranges for time and for price, but I think that this range is the most optimal for whales to accumulate Bitcoin, and therefore there is the most pressure to keep it within this range. So what I'm talking about here is if price drops close to $57,000, there will be a lot of leverage put on. As it begins to go that direction, there are people that will become more confident that it is going lower, and therefore they will put on more short leverage. And because of that, that actually creates the opportunity for it to rebound out. And the same thing happens at this $87,000 range. As it gets to there, people are assuming that Bitcoin's gonna break out, and they will apply long leverage.

4:05And because of that, there's more likelihood that it will go lower to break that leverage. Essentially, at both positions, there are going to be people that are absolutely confident that it is going lower. The confidence in the price action will increase as it goes towards these positions. The bears become louder as it goes towards $57,000, the bulls become louder as it goes towards $87,000. The entire time there will be a correction. Now, I say that there's going to be this time frame of three to six months, because eventually, that only works for so long, for large spot holders to push the spot price around within these ranges and acquire more Bitcoin through liquidating longs and shorts. So they can only do that for so long before something in the broader macroeconomic environment and the entire world and financial ecosystems will push the price up or down. There needs to be something so undeniable

5:08that it pushes the price past these ranges where it is being heavily manipulated. So in these moments, historically, this has been an absolutely great time to accumulate. And I think what happens is people become bored of Bitcoin, liquidity dries up, they move away from it, they get just generally bearish on it or like neutral to bearish. And so what this ends up looking like is a sideways and down pressure of Bitcoin's price action until it explodes upwards and people have been on the sidelines, liquidity's driven up, so price can move rapidly after that. Let's take a look at the Bitcoin chart and I'll actually show you some examples of this. My favorite example of this is right here in February of 2024 to October, November of 2024. That is eight months of sideways and down action.

6:10And I like this period because I was very involved with Bitcoin at this point and I think probably a lot of you were too. So you actually can draw from this experience of having lived through this, whereas if we go further back, I think there's less and less people that would be able to relate. But this happened here as well, this happened here, this has happened all over the place with Bitcoin's history. So what we can see here is, and what I remember happening is when we hit 70,000, people were thinking it was going to 100, that this is the Bitcoin ETF era, there's this underlying bid. And as we drew down, people were saying, oh, this is really disappointing, 58K gang, 58K forever. And essentially people just become more bearish and bored and move on to other things. In each time, it's essentially this fake out until it's not. Until it's not and Bitcoin began to pump up like crazy

7:11and went from, if we take sort of an average, it went to 93% up from that period. And that's not the bottom, right? That's the bottom's here. And there's this massive period of time right here that spans between May 2022 and November of 2023. Massive consolidation sideways. This is the exact same sentiment, right? People were saying, well, Bitcoin's going way lower than 16,000. And when this pump happened, people were saying bull markets on, we're gonna rip immediately or people still didn't believe it, right? They still believed it was bearish, but ultimately the trend had reversed. So as we can kind of see, Bitcoin responds violently after a period of sideways action. In this case that I specifically said here, it went up 60% a large portion of the total gain happened in a very, very short period after this long extended sideways and down action.

8:14Again, here, some sideways and sideways and down action, very slightly down and then exploded upwards again. So here, sideways and up action and we exploded downwards. So Bitcoin moves violently when it moves. And then it trades sideways for longer than the bears like and longer than the bulls like and then it moves violently again. So of course, the question is, does it move violently down or does it move violently up? So in my opinion, it's a lot less likely, not entirely impossible, but again, when you're making predictive decisions on the future, it's all probabilistic. It's all sort of a percentage framework you have to make of likelihood of something happening or not happening. And I think it's a lot less likely that Bitcoin goes below 55,000 here instead of actually trading sideways and then going back up. That is by far more likely in my opinion than dropping further down from here in size,

9:16going below again below 55,000. If it does, I have to sort of reevaluate and rethink what's going on here. And then there'll be another kind of temporary bottom it hits and it'll trade sideways for a bit and then it will make a decision up or down from there. This is how Bitcoin operates in my opinion, looking at the price action. So I expect Bitcoin to trade between 57 and 87,000 for probably another three to six months and then a definitive decision will be made by the market and we will reevaluate Bitcoin based on that. And I think it will be a violent move upwards if I had to be a betting man. But I don't have to be a betting man because in the short term, the Bitcoin price action doesn't really matter to me. This is all within a year timeframe that I'm talking about here. And I think for me, this is a decades, decades, multi-generational asset that I want to own a piece of.

10:18So that's the way I look at it. But that's not how everybody looks at it. That's why I'm making this video. And again, these consolidation periods where probabilistically, where percentage wise, it is oversold. There is no good reason for it to go lower. There is a better reason, a higher percentage of it going up. Those have historically been good buying opportunities, a good period of time of acquiring more sats in exchange for the dollars that you earn or have. So that's what I'm doing. Again, none of this, of course, has been financial advice. This is all speculation on my part. This is where I allocate. This is where I believe. And again, it's all personal to me. You cannot build your conviction and borrow that conviction from somebody else. You have to build it yourself. You have to understand these things fundamentally and make probabilistic choices based on your best interest, not the interests of others.

11:19So don't just follow me blindly. I could be wrong, but this is what I'm thinking. Is that we trade sideways here for a while, and then we violently move upwards. Again, that's just what I weigh heavier than the other scenarios. So the other scenarios are still in play. Anything's possible. That's just what I see as being more likely. So that's about it. Again, if you want to book me for a one-on-one, you can do so through the link in the description. We'll talk Bitcoin. And there's a great learning community that I'm forming that you can join. Link in the description for that. Meet other Bitcoiners. Begin to discuss questions that you have on there and get access to my exclusive courses. Bitcoin basics and beyond, and how to use Bitcoin privately. There's links as well, discount links. For every single thing you need as a Bitcoiner, you start nine server, cold card, stamp seed kit, privacy phones, and Bitcoin minors. Or I have discount links to every single one of those in the description. Thanks everybody, and we'll see you on the next episode.