Mortgage Disaster Unfolding | Where's the Opportunity?

0:00America leads the world in medicine development. It matters. We get new medicines first nearly three years faster. Five million Americans go to work because we make medicines here at home and not relying on other countries keeps us safe. But China is racing to overtake us. Will we let them or will we choose to stay ahead? When America leads, America cures. Let's tell Washington to keep us in the lead. Learn how at americancures.com. Pay for it by pharma. Alrighty folks, the most recent mortgage numbers are out and frankly they are a disaster. They are crashing left, right and center. We will give you the numbers in a moment. But we also remind you that where there is chaos and pain, there is actually opportunity. Before we get into the numbers, let's welcome at the mortgage guy. How you doing buddy? I'm doing great, Mike. How are you doing brother? I'm doing well, man. I'm so happy we talk every Wednesday at 10 o'clock. Let's go over the mortgage demand for the week. Again, people are saying it's crashing and hey, double digits. I think that's crashing. Total mortgage demand for the week was down 10%.

1:04If you want to break that down further, you could say refinances were down 15% and purchase applications were down five. All three of those numbers however are just week on week. If you step back or zoom out, you will actually realize that refi demand is up 52% year on year and purchase demand is up 5% year on year. So yes, I know the doomers will push the narrative that mortgage demand is collapsing. But frankly, it's just not true. What's in there? Yeah, and I think we had such a hot start to the year that it feels colder than it is. It feels a little bit more stable than it is. Because you can make any stat say anything you want. I just read something this morning about 42,000 transactions fell through in February. And for a number of reasons, transactions fall

2:07through inspections. I don't think it has anything to do with rates per se. There might be economic or political uncertainty that might arouse some people. But nonetheless, like you said, year over year, more people refinancing, more people getting pre-approved and buying. But it's interesting to see it. I think that one rental to time community specifically, and investors in general, they like the Warren Buffett saying that says, be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. Right now, there's probably some fear in the market for a number of different reasons. There's a lot to fear in the market. Oh, there's a lot to fear in the market, right? You know, rates and uncertainty and all that. And so as an investor, you should be excited about it. Because I think that when we talked last week, you were correct in saying that it sucks to be a seller right now. I got a real example for

3:13you. So again, everybody knows that Olivia and I went out and raised about a million bucks a few weeks ago before rates exploded because I wanted even more dry powder for what's coming. And I'll just tell you right now, we were offered a 42 unit portfolio yesterday of properties in our market, you know, stuff that we own. And you know, the seller is, I'll say, somewhat motivated, meaning they're probably, you know, if we bought the collection, we probably could get it for 15% below market. But that's not where I'm playing. Right. I want 30 or 35% below market. That stuff's coming. Right. So again, the whole point of this is, dude, I'm not like the masses. When everybody's afraid, I'm freaking greedy. And that's where we are. Everybody's afraid, buyers are afraid, sellers are afraid. So Zuber's going to get freaking greedy and see what he can make. Nice. And when you say my market, you're talking Fresno, right? Where you guys own not where you live. Okay. Okay. Cool. Yeah. It's interesting to see. I think that there's a there's a lots of

4:19factors playing into the reason investors should be optimistic, you know. Investors of the past generation aging out. And just like I see people super excited, you know, the Cody Sanchez of the world and stuff are like, you know, there's business owners that are 72 and they don't want to operate their business anymore. And so they're aging out and you, you know, can get great deals on businesses. You can do that in real estate, right? I don't know the situation about the Fresno, 42 units, but these might just be eight. I'm 75 years old. I'm tired of dealing with this like take it. I'll put it. Yeah, that's exactly what happened in this case. They are, I don't know if they're quite 75. They're over 70. But yeah, they're just done with this. And you know, again, it's just come on the market. I generally don't do deals first day listing, but I did get I was one of the five investors who got a phone call that this was coming. What I envision is working on some kind of number that gives the seller, I'll probably do a 50, 40, 10 with like Stephen Dow, for example, right?

5:22Well, probably I'll just use some real, some fake numbers. I'll pay him six million bucks for the portfolio. I'll give them three, three million dollar first position. I'll come in for 600 grand, which is 10%. And then I'm going to have the seller hold back 2.4 million. And then what I'm going to do with that 2.4 million is I want to do something where I write them one check a year. I'm going to write you 100k check for the next 24 years. Yes, I am saying zero percent interest. Because again, I've got to put together a deal structure that allows me to hold this thing forever. And you know, that's the kind of creativity that I'll likely do with a deal like this. Because again, I can I can write that 600k check. I can write 100k check once a year. But yeah, this is just this is what's up. That's it. And the last thing I'll say about this is the seller. If this seller came to market in 2022, there's no way he would consider selling to me. Because money was easy. The only reason I'm going to even consider a crazy, super deal structure is because I'm the only buyer. Right. And that's the thing too is you've

6:26said it before in markets like this, creativity is the way to really, really win. And so you know, shout out like I do most weeks to the school community. You want to learn how to get creative. You want to talk to other people being creative. You want to, you know, have your brain opened up to structures you didn't think about ideas. You didn't think about, you know, the school community, one or so of the time that you can get in for pennies a day. Yeah. Yeah. People are doing this stuff every single day, including the, you know, the guy at the top, Mike Zuber. I think it's important to mention too. I love deals like that. And like, I'm a math nerd. So I like thinking about the math and the, the different ways to do it. But also, you know, you can solve for the seller and make them really happy. Hey, you get three million right away. That's going to give you some immediate relief. You got a financial advisor, you trust, you put it in something really safe. You can't lose it. And if you get a hundred grand a year for the next 24 years, that's going to be better for it from a tax perspective than the whole lump

7:31sum today. So you win, I win, probably the tenants that live in the place having a more active and full time investor who owns the thing, they're going to win too. And so everybody wins. No, that's exactly why, you know, this time, this time is, and it feels really, I don't know, I'm like bad, maybe a little guilty to say it. But in the environment, we're in today where everybody's afraid there's only one pool of people that win. And that's investors. And specifically investors who have a focused buy box, who have daily discipline, who write lots of offers, who follow up, follow up, follow up. We're going to crush because we're going to find the motivated sellers and create amazing deals. And everybody else is just going to be afraid and do nothing. So I'm excited for what's coming. Yeah, yeah. I think too, when you look at like mortgage demand and we're talking about general numbers, that doesn't translate to the one rental time family, people that are calling every day saying, hey, I came across this. What do you think about this? You know, somebody in my market wants to sell me six duplexes. There's the price

8:33we agreed upon that those are the kind of things that we're talking about. And I love having those conversations. So if anybody wants to go to mtmg.com, I've got, you know, a dozen people a week schedule. It calls with me more than happy to help. One quick ask, please, if you schedule a call with me, I don't know. I'm trying to train the AI. I'm not a smart dude, right? I know mortgage really well. It's done a lot of them. But I'm not an AI tech master somewhere. This AI chatbot is supposed to ask you to leave notes. What the heck do you want to talk about? I do better when I have a little bit of time to prepare. Hey, I'm looking at doing a cash out refinance in Florida. Oh, this, it's worth this. Here's my estimate of my credit score. Hey, I'm looking to do, you know, give to the equity purchase with some family members in this state. Let me know so that, you know, if I want to do five or 10 minutes of work before our call, so that I'm better prepared for your

9:34specific scenario, the more info you give me, the better. So mtmg.com, connect me and my team, give us as much information as possible up front so I can serve you better at the very least what you're going to get from us is honest advice and pointing you in the right direction. Yep, folks, at the end of the day, go to mtmg.com, get something started, ask questions, see what's right for you. Matt, you're amazing. Have a good week. Cool. You too. Thanks, brother. Mm-hmm. President Barack Obama. Virginia, we are counting on you. Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to raid the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years. But you can stop them by voting yes by April 21st. Help put our elections back on a level playing field and let voters decide not politicians. Vote yes by April 21st. Paid for five Virginians for fair elections. How many discounts does USA Auto Insurance offer? Too many to say here. Multi-vehicle discount, safe driver discount, uh, new vehicle discount,

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