About this episode
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U6PdsL
David Bahnsen opens from The Bahnsen Group’s new Santa Barbara (Montecito) office, briefly recaps markets (Dow up ~0.25%, S&P down ~0.25%, Nasdaq down ~0.75% led by semiconductors; staples and financials up, tech down), and argues recent 10-year yield trading has been relatively range-bound. He focuses on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announced 30-year Treasury buybacks ($2B now, potentially $4B in September) aimed at lowering long-end rates and term premium, likening it to an “Operation Twist” style intervention. Bahnsen says the move briefly lowered the 30-year yield about 10 bps but largely failed and is unlikely to work long term, criticizing government attempts to override market price discovery. He attributes higher long yields mainly to 30-year market illiquidity and new competing long-dated issuance from AI hyperscalers. He also covers U.S.-Canada tariff threats and retaliation, upcoming data/events (PCE, durable goods, Nvidia earnings, Warsh at Jackson Hole), WTI down ~2.5% near $85, and promotes his new book, “Profit from the Prophet,” releasing tomorrow.
00:00 Welcome From Montecito
01:06 Market Snapshot Today
01:38 Is Bond Volatility Overstated
02:58 Treasury Buyback Plan Explained
05:53 Did It Work Short Term
06:59 Can It Work Long Term
07:55 Why Long Yields Rose
12:05 Concerns About Intervention
13:52 Tariffs Canada Trade Spat
15:30 Week Ahead Data And Jackson Hole
16:27 Book Launch And Wrap Up
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
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