Modeling the price of bitcoin with Fred Krueger

In this episode, Fred Krueger reflects on his initial experience of purchasing bitcoin on Mt. Gox and subsequently selling it on Mt. Gox. He dives into detailed explanations of both the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) and power law models, offering his insights on whether the bitcoin power law model should be regarded as a mathematical law or just a pattern. Finally, he discusses potential factors that could disrupt the power law model and addresses the notion proposed by Michael Saylor that all models are broken.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:20 Fred’s background preparing him for bitcoin

00:04:17 Fred buying bitcoin on Mt. Gox

00:06:37 Bitcoin as a pet rock with no cash flow

00:10:57 S2F and Power law models

00:23:03 ETH trending to 0

00:25:17 Power law—mathematical law or pattern?

00:40:16 Extreme bear markets

00:41:50 Using bitcoin and bitcoin custody

00:47:50 How would the power law model break?

01:01:09 Will all the models break?

01:07:01 Closing thoughts

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