Matt Medved: How Prediction Markets Are Monetizing Knowledge | DSH #1767

0:00If there are other people who just don't believe in what you believe, but you know you're right, though you get some really interesting mispriced opportunities, I personally think it's like very PvE versus PvP. It's actually like pretty egalitarian because there are new markets popping up for all these different categories and I feel like it's empowering people to like, if you know your area, go have skin in the game. Yeah. Yeah. There's a lot of crypto bets you can make. 100% remember when Trump was giving a speech every day, you could bet on how many words. Yeah. Exactly. The press briefings, all of that. And you know, I really do believe that this base is going to disrupt traditional markets. All right guys, we're at ComplexCon. I've got someone I've talked to you for years, finally meeting him in versus day Matt Medved. We met man over five years ago, right? I think so, man. It's been, we've been DMing, you know, love to see the journey, with respect to content paths. It's great to be here, man. Absolutely. You're here for the ape fest stuff. That's a client. Right. Yeah. So now media, you know, ape chain is one of our big partners. And so had to come out for ape fest to support, do some

1:02content to, you know, all of that. And then they've got the activation here. And, you know, ComplexCon is great because there's so many artists, so many people in like the luxury, the fashion world, the streetwear world, the music world. Yeah. So it brings like all my worlds together. Absolutely. There's a lot of intersection here. There really is man. There really is. There's my first time back at ComplexCon since 2021. Wow. So definitely different time in the markets, but it's been, it's been a really good, yeah, bouncing around, seeing a lot of artists that I know doing cool collabs and such, seeing what's up with just like the intersection of culture and technology. Absolutely. Let's talk prediction markets. Yeah. So one of my sponsors, call she actually probably markets a sponsor too. Yeah. You've been crushing it on both of those. Yeah. I got to, I got to hear the sauce. Well, you know, for me, man, prediction markets are really interesting because I think prediction markets are a new way of monetizing expertise. You know, there's a lot of people who have interest or have like deep knowledge of different categories that before there just wasn't a way to unlock that value. Like for me, for example, I'm a political junkie. I follow the elections religiously. So I started, you know, trading on polymarket last year during the elections when I noticed that they launched these

2:04mention markets. And I was like, Oh, like what's Trump going to say? What's a homilic going to say? And you know, like I know what a stump speech is. I know the difference between a rally and a town hall. And I was finding all of these kind of like like inefficiencies in the market where they were being mispriced. And I did well. And what was cool was, you know, I've been following politics for years, but there wasn't a way for me to monetize that before. And now we're seeing that permeate culture. You know, like I like there were, I know some, some people who cleaned up on the Taylor Swift album launch. And you know, they went and interviewed Swifties who had no idea about crypto, had no idea about prediction markets, but knew a ton about what her releases were like in the past and knew like which singles are going to be the ones to stream the most. All of these different things that like, you know, that knowledge was there, but now there's a way to unlock that value. Yeah. And I think that what's interesting is, you know, I'm not a, I'm not a trader like by by design. I'm not a, I'd never bet on anything until polymarket. Well, and so I think what's interesting is it's people like me, it's going to bring in all of these new market participants who previously like, you know, wouldn't be going on like the sports

3:07books or, you know, draft kings or whatever. That's very powerful. And so I'm a big believer in it. Yeah. And I think, you know, in terms of the sauce, it's about finding your niche. You know, they always say like invest in what you know. I think that's never more true than in prediction markets. I love that. I will say when it comes to stock trading, it's hard to find an edge, but with something like this, if you talk to the right people like you said, and you're eight people that are really knowledgeable on certain topics, I feel like it gives you a bit of an edge, right? Exactly. And people are trading like some really niche things, everything from like the weather and like the peak temperature in different cities on different days. But there are people who are like amateur meteorologists who like go deep on that and figure it out. You know, there are charts. There are markets all around the billboard charts. You know, I was at billboard for many years. I have a very good understanding of how those work. So that's another area where it's like, oh, like just by like things that I kind of take by default is like, oh, I do actually have an edge on these compared to the general public, right? And what's really interesting about prediction markets too is that there's always a counterparty, right? Like unlike the sports betting where there's the sports book and you know, you're against the house, the earth casinos, where it's all

4:10algorithmically designed to make you fail. But in this guys, it's like, if there are other people who just don't believe in what you believe, but you know, you're right, though, you get some really interesting mispriced opportunities. And I don't know, I personally think it's like very PvE versus PvP. And I think that it's actually like pretty egalitarian because there are new markets popping up for all these different categories. And I feel like it's empowering people to like, you know, if you know your area, go have skin in the game. Yeah. Yeah. There's a lot of crypto bets you can make. I remember when Trump was giving a speech every day, you could bet on how many words he would say the press briefings, all of that. And it's really interesting now with polymarket and call sheet. I mean, they're just, they're like duking it out right now. Yeah. And you know, I really do believe that this space is going to disrupt traditional markets. I mean, think about this way. You know, I think every investment, every trade you make in any market is a prediction. Yeah. Why do you buy Tesla stock? Because you predict that it's going to go up, right? Or you predict, if you sell it because you predict, it's going to go down. For years, for years, people have

5:11invested in commodities around what they think is going to happen in world events. You know, back in the day, if you thought there was going to be war in the Middle East, you buy oil futures, right? Well, now with these prediction markets, you can actually bet on the outcome itself versus like exposure to a third party asset, right? I think that's very powerful. And I don't think that genius going back inside the bottle. Yeah, especially now with the whole NBA scandal, I feel like people are looking for better ways to invest their money or exactly. And what's interesting too about polymarket specifically is that it's all transparent on chain, right? So like, if a big whale insider comes in and like, and that's a lot, people notice that because they see it and you know, that creates conversation, people understand this might be an insider, things like that. So there's like, there's isn't the black box that exists with like traditional casinos and sportsbooks. Like, you don't know who's betting. You don't know what they're betting or what's going in. Everything's on chain there. Absolutely. Now, I know you're also big in the music industry. Yeah. Do you think the future of music is going to have a lot of AI involved? Absolutely, man. And I'm very bullish on it. You know, to me, you know, I founded Billboard

6:13dance, built that, you know, Renspin magazine as either in chief exit route sold by that. So I've been deep in the music side for a while. I DJ and produce music. And I think that the rise of AI music, generative AI music. Shout out to today's sponsor, Quince. As the weather cools, I'm swapping in the pieces that actually gets the job done, that are warm, durable and built to last. Quince delivers every time with wardrobe staples that'll carry you through the season. They have false staples that you'll actually want to wear like the 100% Mongolian cashmere for just $60. They also got classic fit denim and real leather and wool out of wear that looks sharp and holds up. By partnering directly with ethical factories and top artisans, Quince cuts out the middleman, still a two deliver premium quality at half the cost of similar brands. They've really become a go-to across the board. You guys know how I love linen and how I've talked about it on previous episodes. I picked up some linen pants and they feel incredible. The quality is definitely noticeable compared to other brands. Layer up this fall with pieces that feel as good as they look. Go to Quince.com slash DSH for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. They're also available

7:16in Canada too. You know, pro programs and platforms like Suno and UDO are going to absolutely change the music industry. They're not ready for it. Right now, what took me weeks as a producer takes me hours. It's crazy, man. You can create your own samples, you can create your own loops. Anything you can imagine comes out. And what's also very powerful, powerful unlock, I'm a bite ear musician. So for me, I grew up hearing music in my head. I played a little piano, played a little viola. I wasn't particularly great at those. But you know, those just weren't the right tools for me to get the music out of my head. And I remember I used to have to hit a key be like, oh, laboriously, like, what's the note in my head? Is it this key? Is it that key? And then Ableton launch Ableton live launch audio to MIDI. And all of a sudden, I could sing the music in my head. And it would immediately do the MIDI all the way. Yeah. So that was a huge

8:18unlock for me. That's when I released my marshmallow remix started to like really kind of gain traction with my music. But AI is like that on steroids. That's because now I can literally do an entire arrangement that I have in my head. I can bring it to life with AI so quickly. I'm working on a musical right now. And I'm literally bringing it to life fully arranged with AI vocals doing all the different parts. And it's like, it creates, you can create a fully fleshed out demo. Yeah. Now, obviously, I'm going to go and, yeah, I'm going to go and like create that musical with real performers and real musicians and all of that. But I can get, I can go from ideation to an execution of it that people can understand so much quicker now. Yeah. And I don't think that Genie is going back inside the bottle either, man. And so it's interesting because, you know, I always say this like AI is a tool like anything, right? Yeah. A vehicle like a vehicle is a tool. A piano is a tool. Turn tables, you know, electronic music, you know, all of the tools that go into that, they're all tools. They unlock different elements of creativity. To me, I've always said like, you know, AI, especially when it comes to like AI art, we do a lot of that with now media.

9:22AI art, it's like, it's a camera for your imagination. And now with AI music, it's like a microphone. Yeah. And so what I think you're going to see is the rise of all these producers and artists who come from unconventional backgrounds or have non-traditional skill sets who had all this genius inside that they're going to be able to unlock in new ways because they're using these tools. Yeah. And so like that to me is very exciting. Obviously too, you know, look, with the rise of AI music, there's obviously a lot of those tracks that are going to be flooding the streaming services. Right now, I know they're kind of doing a balancing after trying to figure out like, how do you get rid of the slop? But how do we like retain the stuff that's actually valuable and interesting? Yeah. But I think in the future, AI is just going to be considered a tool that like, if you're not using it, it's like, well, aren't you using pro tools? Like aren't you using Ableton? Aren't you using MIDI? Like, this is going to be a part of every producer's air kit. And we're going to normalize it because people are just going to grow up in a world where AI is just part of the workflow. For sure. I've always planned around the store last week. Have you tried that one? Yeah. So it was super powerful, man. Yeah. But nots. And on the music side,

10:25Suno is taking the cake. I do all myself in Suno. Yeah. Yeah. It feels like a levels of playing field for everyone, right? Exactly. Love are not super expensive programs. Exactly. And so, and you know, like, you know, I come from the dance music world. Yeah. So like the rise of guys, like Martin Garrix, a Vici, that holy EDM wave, it was, it was because of what exactly you're saying. There was a democratization of access to digital technology. All the sudden, these kids in their bedrooms could have access to like industry standards, software, all that. All they needed was an internet connection and like a working knowledge of BitTorrent, right? And so like, that's how you had the rise of all of those artists. Now we're seeing the same thing in the visual space with art, we're seeing the same thing with music, and there's an accessibility now. And you know, what does it mean when anybody can bring an idea to life? What does it mean when you can make an industry standard song from a text prompt? Well, it means that the great ideas are going to be the differentiators. And so I always say like, AI is not going to replace artists, but artists that are using AI are going to absolutely outpace the artists that are not, facts. Let's end off with crypto. I know

11:28you're a big character. Now we got crypto credit cards. It feels like it's becoming really mainstream now, right? Absolutely, man. I've like, so I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013. I was the top signal that market, right? It cost like two years later. It's 90, 900, 900. Yeah. Yeah. And then it crashed down to like 250. Yeah. And then like 16 to 18s, when I got into Ethereum, all that, my journey, you know, then with the rise of NFTs, I was like, okay, finally, it's the, it's the, you know, technology I believed in for a long time, disrupting fields I'm actually passionate about, or music culture, but in a way, they can empower creators. Now the level of regular regulatory credibility that we're seeing, the embrace of the crypto space of digital assets by the current administration is like nothing I thought was possible within like that time frame. Yeah. Because I remember in 2013, the entire financial system was saying that Bitcoin was, you know, a joke, a scam, a threat to the established order. And now you have grayscale, BlackRock, Vanak, all of the biggest financial services. Basically, you know, opening the doors, opening the floodgates,

12:33launching their own stablecoins, getting into the games with ETFs. And what we're seeing is an institutionally driven cycle. And there are a couple bills before Congress right now. One of them just passed the genius bill. Yeah. Very important for stablecoins. The other one, the Clarity Act, will essentially codify all of the, all the things, all the changes that have been made at the SEC so that people understand crypto is not a security. You know, we have solid regulatory ground to build on. Because, you know, the previous administration basically had a war on crypto. Like Gary Gensler's SEC was very adversarial. Now under Paul Atkins, absolutely embracing it. But the, what the one thing is is if a, if a different administration comes in and feels differently, they can reverse all that stuff with the SEC unless it's codified into law. So what you're going to see, man, is that when they actually codify this, when they pass the Clarity Act, you're actually going to see a ton of institutional capital that's currently on the sidelines pour in. Wow. Because they can afford to wait. They think in like 12 to 18 month cycles. But they want to, they, they want to pour in once there's absolutely no regulatory risk. Yeah. So that's really important for them,

13:37right? And so I think we're on the precipice of like a, like a golden age in crypto. And you're always going to have like the day to day, the pendulum, the ups and downs. It's volatile for a reason. But I'm incredibly bullish on the future of digital assets. And we're all living our lives more digitally. And now that you have these massive institutions embracing this, it's almost become like too big to fail them. Yeah. One of my favorite NFTs I have is Chubby Cattle. Yeah. Have you heard of that one? I've heard of it. Yeah. They have like restaurants around the country. Yeah. And every time you show it, you get a discount, you get free appetizers. It has real utility. Yeah. So like I've, I've ended up making money on it because I eat there so much. I love that. You know, yeah. And you know, I'm still a big believer in that space. I know that, you know, you know, everyone's like, oh, the NFT bubble burst. Look, we're never going to see a 2021 repeat itself again. But if you have to look at that at the adoption arc of technology, it took more than a decade for Bitcoin to go from its birth to being accepted by the traditional institutions, the financial system. The NFT space is still very new in Nathan, right? And so I

14:40think as we zoom out, we're going to continue to see it bend towards progress that arc. And the thing is is in an increasingly digital world, you cannot tell me that unique digital assets are not going to be more important and more valuable in the future, right? We've seen this even outside the blockchain context when it comes to Roblox, when it comes to Fortnite, to Counter-Strike, you know, there's all this stuff with the skins recently. You know, that, that's not going out, to like, that's not going anywhere, right? And so, but where I think it's going to get really interesting, I mean, one of the reasons that we rebranded from NFT now to now media was we recognize that the culture, the digital culture movement is bigger than any one medium, right? I come from the music side. So, NFT's arc reminds me a lot of MP3s. When MP3 players first came out and it was new technology, everybody was talking about MP3s. And, you know, then it kind of moved from the conversation from what they are to what they do, right? You know, the Apple iPod, you know, had the 1000 songs in your pocket moment, which I put that tech on the map for like, your average consumer. But now people, now people don't talk about MP3s anymore, but they still

15:42use them every day. They're still streaming them, all those things. And that I think is the success, because that's how you know technology is really hit mainstream is when you're not talking about the tech itself. Yeah. But about what it creates, right? And where I think we're going to see the same thing with NFTs underneath the surface, right? Because as things are built on blockchain rails, there's going to be unique assets. Those are going to be NFTs. We may not talk about them as such. And I actually think that's a good thing. Yeah, I agree. Matt, it's been fun, man. Where can people find you? Yeah. At Matt Medved on Twitter, Instagram, and the companies now media, at now media, on the same platform, auto. Check them out, guys. Peace.