March Madness Bracket Strategy: Favorites or Underdogs?

0:00On March 19, filling out a March Madness bracket for the 2026 tournament means smart strategy based on your pool size. For smaller groups, stick with the favorites approach, picking the top ranked team each time to rack up the most expected points. Analytics sites show higher ranked teams when about 70% of tournament games over the past 23 years. In larger pools, go contrarian by picking solid underdogs that few others choose. Back in 2019, Duke was the heavy favorite with a 34% shot at the title, but Virginia with a 22% chance, one, it all and was only picked by 8% of brackets that edged out the crowd. Pull players often flock to obvious champs, leaving contrarian picks with fewer rivals if they hit. In a 50% pool, just four might select that surprise winner, giving you the edge if your early rounds stay safe. This year, Michigan and Duke lead the odds, but both miss key point guards, Caleb Foster, for Duke, with a broken foot, and LJ.

1:02Case in for Michigan, after an ACL tear, Arizona tops some rankings despite preseason doubts, making them a prime contrarian option as a number one seed. Watch for local biases too, like Michigan fans overloading on the Wolverines. Submit multiple brackets mixing both strategies to boost your odds across any pool size.