MAJOR SPLIT IN IRAN'S LEADERSHIP: NEGOTIATION OR WAR

0:00Dave Roberts here. There you are surrounded by fans, sharing wings, sharing drinks, high-fiving random strangers. Everybody remembers the game. Nobody remembers the guy coughing behind you until a few days later. At 2am, you wake up with a fever and your throats on fire. Now what? Urgent care, clothes, ER, slam, telehealth, maybe, but the pharmacy's clothes. You needed a medical emergency kit. These aren't first aid kits. They contain essential prescriptions used for over 30 common conditions. Sinus and ear infection, UTI, stomach bug, travelers diarrhea, and more. On hand before you need them. Use your doctor-developed guidebook to select the right prescription or call their telemedicine doctor standing by. It's like an urgent care and drug store at home. When you're sick, traveling, or stranded, you'll wish you ordered a medical emergency kit. Order online in minutes and it's shipped to your door and say $45 with my promo code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue. That's promo code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue.

1:02Imagine your friend tells you she's taking an innocent family trip to Greenville, South Carolina. We'll call her Emma. The trip sounds great to you. Hiking at Jones Gap, dinner at Topsoil, a room at the best hotel in town. Harmless, right? Here's the thing. Emma and her family never return from Greenville. They disappear. You search for answers, but nothing adds up. Emma had a great life back home. You guys were best friends. What happened? Well the truth is, once Emma realized she could have access to Michelin recognized restaurants, nature, local shops, and performing arts all in one place, everywhere else started to seem a little. Meh. Emma's vacation is a cautionary tale. If you're coming this way, don't forget to tell your friends and neighbors goodbye. Visit Greenville, South Carolina, but you may never want to leave. Learn more at visit GreenvilleSC.com. And of course, right when we're logging on, all the WhatsApp messages start.

2:05So I'm going to need to put it on mute. You know what happens is I do it and then I forget to take it off mute and then I have to then go back and you know what I mean? Just put your fun on did not disturb the, the reason what's up is lighting up and you just broke as we're going live. Saudi, just to give you an idea of how bad the situation is, they've requested help from Israel to deal with the hoothies. Do you saw that? It just came out now. The source is this legit though. Let me tell you the source. I wouldn't be so. Saudi asking Israel. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised. The source is, oh, okay. Is Israel high y'all? It's probably true then because they wouldn't, they wouldn't, I mean, this is going to complicate Israeli defense policy if they did actually have to help because they're already strained with Lebanon and whatever they're getting ready to do. Yes,

3:05baby would love a new war and the hoothies is of course easy and there's just no idea. He would love a new war but the IDF, I'm not so sure. I'm not so sure. Let me read. Yeah, go ahead. I'll read the story. A soundie crime prints, MBS, Muhammad bin Salman has sought assistance from regional countries in confronting the hoothies, including an indirect request to Israel through US sent-com for intelligence and other support to prevent the group from blocking the Babylon men's straight according to Israel, Hyam, Riyadh also approached other Gulf states in Egypt. That mecca defense agreement is going great. It's going great. Well, I will say shout out to Demetri LaSkars because he's the, or guess that I spoke to the most about this who was most pessimistic. I know he just canceled because he's traveling but I was looking forward to talking to him about that today. I was much more thinking this is a real seed change but apparently it is. No, it is. It is. It is an important step. I just think it's

4:11maybe in the long run but in the short. Exactly. It's more of it. It's an indication of what's to come rather that agreement within itself being so significant. It's also important to realize that soundies being attacked. Yes, the mecca defense agreement should be activated but, NATO has Article 5. Europe is being attacked and sabotaged by Russia, the drone incursions, etc. NATO is not acting. I think these agreements should be a bit more nuanced. The Houthis is in a tricky position but I think if there's a full-blown war with any of those three countries, the other two would join. I think it will be activated. I wouldn't say the agreement is useless but it's also not as binary or black and white as people would like to see it to think. Larry had a joke yesterday. He was in rare form yesterday. He said that it reminded him of an American health insurance company. We don't cover pre-existing conditions. That's a good one. By the way, you gave one of his tropical shirts to Lavrov apparently. Lavrov now. Nice. One of Larry's Florida shirts. They do this every year to Lavrov. Get a group of

5:18podcasts. That's where I met Larry. The first time I met Larry was when me, him and the judge went to interview Lavrov last year. That's when I saw Larry and judge for the first time. I didn't know who they were. I just met them. I wasn't aware they had a YouTube channel. Huge here, by the way. You're like in Dubai bubble. I wasn't a judge. He was a video on Fox too. He used to be on Fox News. Such a nice person as well. I never met him but I can tell he's. I know people. Such a gentleman. Very, very gentlemanly. Larry's just a fun guy. I just joked all the time. I was there having dinner with him. They did not. We'll get to the news for the audience. But like, you tell Brian and quickly I had dinner with them. I'm a very introverted person. Not introverted but private. I don't socialize much. They are the most social people. They would

6:20sit there for hours talking and listening. They have so much knowledge, so much information. The judge is so much more talkative because in the interviews, he asks questions and listens 90% of the time. In real life, he's got a lot to share. He was a judge. That's also interesting. Let's go to the news. We talked about the Saudis seeking support from the Israelis to help with the Houthis. That should not come as a surprise. The Israelis have a lot of intelligence on the Houthis. There is a line of interest there. If you look at the history of the Houthis and Yemen, as Scott Houghton told you, I went through that as well. It's a great summary. If you look at the history of Yemen, all of it was not based on ideology played role, but it wasn't on loyalty or ideology. It was a lining interest between different parties. The president was a pro-Saudi working with the Saudis. Then shifted to what's the term? He shifted away from the Saudis. We put the mouth.

7:26He switched sides to the Houthis and aligned himself with the Houthis and then again switched sides back. He switched sides again back to Saudi. He didn't last long. Houthis and a checkpoint exactly. It was all about aligning interest. In this case, the Saudis and the Israelis have a very aligned interest in ensuring the Houthis remained weak. That's a more aligned interest. It hasn't worked. By the way, there are... He defected. Yes, but there's a small but growing possibility. I think we might have mentioned this yesterday. I don't remember. There's a small but growing possibility, not a probability, a possibility that the Houthis may actually try to move ground forces into Saudi Arabia. It looks like there might be some thinking that there will eventually be

8:27some kind of a ground attack inside of Saudi, which is one of the reasons why you're seeing Saudi Arabia trying to rally all of these troops and whatnot, because at least they are concerned in Riyadh. It sounds like that there might be a Houthi incursion at some point, which is just... It's stunning if that is even really on the table here. It shows you how far things have gone outside of the control of Mohammed bin Salman. It begs the question, Mario, why isn't this guy just cutting a deal? It's the easiest thing he could do. The Houthis seem like they're very clear about what they want. The Saudis could easily give them that and everybody wins. I was just reading today that the oil production out of Saudi Arabia, if they don't get it going in the next four weeks, is going to be drastically curbed for the long term. They're saying in Saudi Arabia that East West pipeline won't be repaired until a minimum of six weeks. This is a big crisis

9:29for the world, man. Damage to sound these East West pipeline will take more than a month to repair. Sources tell Marlheim data. That's very significant. You speak to Raymond Zuccar related tonight. Yes, I'm planning on talking about that with him. That's on the Saudi and the Houthi front. Before we get to the main story of the day, let's see what else there is on the Houthi front. There's a few more stories there. The Army defending Emmons Keyport was at 20th S's story on why the Houthis fell so quickly. Sorry, the PLC fell so quickly. The presidential leadership. There were 20% strength, strength, because it's rosters were stuffed with ghost names collecting salaries. They were putting a lot of ghost names in the rosters as they were getting paid by the Saudis just to rack up money. This happened in four of us predicted that's according to CNN. Yeah, this happened a lot of that. With the ANC's, the Afghan national forces that we were supporting in training.

10:35I'm either the US. There was a lot and particularly in like 2011 to 2013, that was sort of the height of it. There was a lot of ghost rosters and they did crack down on it a little bit. And there were some elite units of the Afghan National Army that switched side. But ultimately, this has been a repeating problem. And it happened, I believe, I believe it happened with the forces we trained initially in Iraq after we toppled Saddam. This is a continual pattern here. So, yeah, I would love to see what these discussions look like behind the scenes between the Saudis and the Houthis. I'll be really fascinated to see how they are. Because there were a lot of negotiations going on during the war where the Saudis paid off the Houthis for the Houthis not to attack. And that all broke down. I think the Houthis understand they have a much stronger position than they thought. They're probably asking for a lot more. The Saudis, I think, will eventually cut a deal, but I think they need to feel the pain. The Houthis want to stick it to the Saudis a bit more, get more demands. The Iranian model, the Iranians realize

11:38they're in a much stronger position than they thought before. And they have very significant demands. And it would take the Americans a while to Trump a while before accepting the new reality where he has no choice but to accept their demands. So, I think it'll be a play out very similarly with the Saudis and the Saudis. Yeah, the thing is though, the Saudis are going to be really wrecked if this thing drags out. I mean, it's hurting us obviously, this thing with the Iran, but the Saudis will be really wrecked if this thing goes on like I think it is. And it'll still end with the Houthis getting what they want. I mean, I think that's the key thing here. Unless Emerald Mark Montgomery is correct, and eventually the US Air Force is used. And by the way, there are a lot of heavy lift Air Force planes going into Djibouti right now. So there might be in the offing some kind of air campaign against Houthi assets. But unless that, and that's not going to work by the way, that's, I mean, I, that's that's that's a born to lose. I talked to Larry about this a long time. It's a born to lose

12:42plan. But that's really the only way this might have a chance of ending sooner, as if there's pressure from the US. But I don't think that's in the offing really. And I don't think it's going to work because nothing we've done has worked so far in this war. I was, I read this yesterday, the headline of a CNN article, the one that talks about the PLC's at 20% of the size that were that that was on paper, 80% smaller than there were, than the, what was expected to be there to confront the Houthi advancements. The title of that article is a fuck up of epic proportions, which means sums up the situation right now. Oh, Lord. Maybe I said it's a Larry. Yeah, the whole situation. And the, um, Iranian President commented in an interview today on the situation with the Houthis. He said, we are not in a war with Saudi and the Houthis have their own problems. So you drew a clear line between the Houthis and their demands and the Iranians. It does not mean the Iranians may not be, I don't think the Iran is pushing for this, but the Iranians are definitely supporting the Houthis. Well, they're benefiting.

13:45What extent? Yeah. They're benefiting. Yeah. The Iranians are benefiting from, from this, and they're going to take advantage of it now because now there's two, two pressure points, right? I mean, now it's not just the Hormuz straight. It's the Babel Mandab. Exactly. And by the way, this hurts Israel too, because remember, they have that Red Sea port now that's been closed down. But the, the Israeli economy needs that Red Sea port, Elat or El Elat back up learning. Elat. Yeah. And this is only going to complicate that. And by the way, that's where they launched one of those dolphin class submarines about two or three weeks ago was out of Eliyat. They pulled it out of there and sent it. And there was all those pictures of it passing through the Red Sea. So during the Iran war, as a message to Iran. Yeah. Well, maybe it was also a message to the Houthis. I don't know. We don't know where those, you would have it. It wouldn't have a New Quesim. Well, it's not, no, but it's not, it's not just nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. They have regular, it's like our submarines with the Tomahawks. They also have regular tips, you know, conventional

14:50cruise missiles. And they could use those to do land attack missions, which might actually be Dave Roberts here. There you are surrounded by fans, sharing wings, sharing drinks, high-fiving random strangers. Everybody remembers the game. Nobody remembers the guy coughing behind you until a few days later at 2 a.m. You wake up with the fever and your throats on fire. Now what? Urgent care, close. ER, slam, telehealth, maybe. But the pharmacies close. You needed a medical emergency kit. These aren't first aid kits. They contain essential prescriptions used for over 30 common conditions, sinus and ear infection, UTIs, stomach bug, travelers diarrhea and more. On hand before you need them. Use your doctor-developed guidebook to select the right prescription or call their telemedicine doctor standing by. It's like an urgent care and drugstore at home. When you're sick, traveling or stranded, you'll wish you ordered a medical emergency kit. Order online in minutes and it's shipped to your door and say $45 with my promo code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue. That's promo code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue.

15:58Imagine your friend tells you she's taking an innocent family trip to Greenville, South Carolina. We'll call her Emma. The trip sounds great to you. Hiking at Jones Gap, dinner at top soil, a room at the best hotel in town. Harmless, right? Here's the thing. Emma and her family never return from Greenville. They disappear. You search for answers, but nothing adds up. Emma had a great life back home. You guys were best friends. What happened? Well the truth is, once Emma realized she could have access to Michelin recognized restaurants, nature, local shops and performing arts all in one place. Everywhere else started to seem a little. Emma's vacation is a cautionary tale. If you're coming this way, don't forget to tell your friends and neighbors goodbye. Visit Greenville, South Carolina, but you may never want to leave. Learn more at visit GreenvilleSC.com. If the Israelis are seriously contemplating involving themselves

17:00militarily to help the Saudis, that might end up being their primary asset they use is the submarine rather than air power. On the war front, so the story of the day is something, I'll get your thoughts on it, see if you believe it or not. This is a story by the New York Times. I want to give credit. I spoke to journalists from New York Times yesterday and in the TV, the author of the regime change. Jonathan Swan. Jonathan Swan, yeah. Is he with the NYT? I thought he was with another. I thought I know Habermin and NYT both of them. New York Times. But I do want to give them credit. They're the ones that broke the story on what happened behind the scenes that led Trump into this war and the influence that these Israelis had that the Netsaliao had. So this is a story, a similar story, but on the Iranian front. Iranian officials say the country's leadership has been split for weeks between two strategies for breaking the deadlock with the US, returning to negotiations or escalating the war. Now, we've seen those reports multiple times throughout the entire war that there's disagreements within Iran. Some people go as extreme as saying there's

18:05threats of a coup, which I think is obviously a way to extreme. And other saying there's no disagreements whatsoever. So the New York Times is talking about being a pretty significant split within the leadership. Under the escalation plan, Iran would intensify attacks on US targets, including naval vessels and American troops while trying to drive up global oil prices and force in end to the US naval blockade that has crippled Iranian trade and reduced exports of oil to zero. Hardline generals, including the IRGC Airspace Force Commander Brigadier General Sayyid Muzavid presented a detailed war plan to the Supreme National Security Council. It called for Iran and allied groups, especially the Houthis in Yemen. And Shiite militias in Iraq to expand attacks on US forces and regional oil infrastructure. President Masood Pazashyan and parliamentary speaker Gali Baf opposed the plan, warning it could drag into a much larger war triggering heavier USA strikes and deepening the country's economic crisis. You know what's

19:05interesting? First, I believe those reports we've seen so many of them and for my conversations, it just makes sense. We know these factions like any other government, there's going to be different factions, Democrats, Republicans, within each party, there's going to be the pro-war, the anti-war members of Congress. Well, in this case, you've got the IRGC leadership or certain members of the IRGC leadership that believe continuing strikes, and this is something we've discussed, continuing strikes to pressure the Americans, to hurt the Americans, to increase oil prices, would allow them better terms on the negotiating table. And that what Pazashyan and Arachia saying is that true, but you're also risking a prolonged conflict because if you force Trump's hand, Trump may get to a stage where he's like, you know what, screw it, I can't get a deal, I'm going all in even if it hurts me. So this is the split and I really don't know who's more right because I thought the Iranians pushing to how far they've pushed so far could backfire on them. And it hasn't yet, they have more of another hand now than they did a few months ago. There's more to

20:07the story, but I'll stop there and get your thoughts. Yeah, no, it's sort of a to-be-determined thing, though, is this hardliner approach going to work? I think it so far has, so they'll probably continue, the hardliners will probably continue driving things until the article says the hardliners are the ones that are calling the shots right now. Yeah, it's very clear. It's very clear. And you know, what does Trump do? Again, I think after the midterms, you're going to see a very significant one where the other change in posture. I don't think that the president is just going to walk away right after the midterms. I think after the midterms, he's going to do one round of escalation, probably at least. And then he'll try to walk away because what he's trying to do right now is reassert dominance, his reassert, hey, I'm the big man, America's the big boss here and we're not. And you look at the whole sort of orbit around America, right? You look at this war has caused so many

21:12unintended effects, not just in the region. You now have the spat between Trump and the UK, you have the possibility that Philip Pilkington is saying that the UK might actually dissolve into its component parts now because of what Trump's calling for. You've got Canada now talking about becoming an observer of the European Union on the pathway to a session into the European Union. I mean, there are so many moves going on right now that are just insane. And it's all from this war. I mean, I know the trade war and everything, but it's all being exacerbated by the war. And one other thing, by the way, we got news yesterday that we talked a lot about was this this report about three service members, US service members being killed by Chinese satellite targeting data. Last night, one of China's satellites that they think is used for satellite, this kind of satellite intelligence, exploded in orbit and created a massive, yeah, yeah, created a massive debris field. It was all over my Twitter yesterday. I'll send you

22:16the story if you give me a minute too. Now, technically, they're saying it was an accident and it just happens, it's normal functions. I actually think my theory and I have no, this is my theory. I think we probably did something to the satellite as a act of deterrence. I think we probably knocked it out. If any of that is true, it looks like it is though. So my point is is that you're seeing everywhere unintended consequences. And it's all from this war, Mario, and I really think that right now there is no offer amp. It's going to be escalatory. The Iranians are escalating on their side. Trump is in a holding pattern until after the midterms and then after the midterms, he will punch back. Yes, so that's, I'll pull up that story. Yeah, I got the story already. I haven't already okay. I'm seeing if it was Gaza data on Iran and the Iran war. I'm seeing if that particular

23:22satellite was used to gather data on the other one. I think it was part of the constellation. I think it was part of the constellation. They blew it up for a reason. Again, we don't know if they did blow it up. Yeah, I think it's possible. It was very possible. So yeah, the Yalgan 50 blew up September 4th, nine days ago. It was reported two days ago. And this is the exact type of satellite that will be used to gather intelligence intelligence imagery during war. Yeah, in fact, Yalgan 50 or two is assessed as a Chinese military earth observation reconnaissance satellite, possibly carrying radar imagery. Radar reconnaissance is especially useful because it can image targets at night and through clouds, including military bases, ships, airfields, and troop equipment movements. Very interesting. So my first set of essays when I was hired at, when I worked at the Asia Times with under David Goldman, I pitched and they published of my series on on the Yalgan satellite constellation. That's why when I saw this news report yesterday, I was like,

24:27I know this satellite and I know what it does. Because you know, I remember I was I was a space nerd before anything else. So you know, this is very much in keeping and I'll never forget what a Colonel from Peterson Space Force space told me is a big Hawaiian guy, very funny guy. But we were talking, I was giving a briefing about what, you know, Chinese space capabilities, military space capabilities. And he looked at me because Brandon, I have got so many tools in my toolkit. I could really f them up if I need, if I'm ordered to. So, you know, there's a shadow war going on in space as well. And it's related to this. But my point is it's escalations everywhere, man. This is not there is no, and the fact that the hardliners are driving things in Iran only makes escalation more likely, more unintended consequences are likely to come from this. Yes, I'm trying to find a story, but this is linked to a story from a few days ago that a Chinese satellite that that story alone is shouldn't be surprising, but it was put a reported by one of

25:29the media outlets that a Chinese satellite was likely used to kill in a strike on Jordan that killed the three soldiers, the three American soldiers. Again, that shouldn't be a surprise because we know the Iranis were used, we're using Chinese satellites. And the who these to be able to target with their missiles, the who is as well. And they're getting it now. I think they're getting it in directly from the Chinese now. The Chinese probably Iran is that provided to the who these. But yes, so that's targeting killed American soldiers. So that's it could be used by members of Congress as Fee Mongorey around China, if it ever serves their interests. But yeah, if you align that with that satellite exploding, no, very interesting theory. Very interesting theory. And it just indicates to me that escalation is the likely outcome here. Now, maybe we luck it lucky and after the round of escalations, we get the escalation. Maybe this is escalated, the escalate. But right now, it looks like escalation to escalate. And that's very scary considering how how things are deteriorating everywhere. Yeah, I'm seeing how common it is for that to happen. It's

26:34not happening that often. Yeah, it does. Yeah, yeah. And with China, yes, but it's just the timing and the specific system involved is what sort of peak. The type of satellite as well. Very good observation. Very, very good observation. I have my moments. Thank you. So there's an IDF ground incursion in southern Syria on this mass protest in Syria right now against Al-Sharah as well. Yes, I was going to bring that up actually. I saw that this morning because the price of diesel or the price of gas is up 40 around 40%. It's not looking good there either, by the way. So the country hasn't been looking good for over a decade. So back to the story of the the disagreements in Iran. So I'll read a big chunk of the article. Iranian officials told the New York Times that Iran hideliners secretly sabotaged their peace agreement with the US and early July by ordering attacks on three commercial ships in the Shredo home was on July 7. Do you remember

27:36that attack? There was a deal that had the the MOU and everything was going well and then it seemed like out of nowhere the Iran is fired at three ships. Yeah, and that led to us to start a wave of attacks that lasted a week or two. Now that attack and there have been rumors about that some people have said it on the show as well that this was elements of the IRGC that fired those missiles intentionally to sabotage the deals. Well, the peace by the New York Times at Samarticle says that is exactly what happened. There's a commander within the IRGC that made that decision. Intentionally sabotaged the peace talks. I'll read a piece of it. Pesyschian, Vahidi and much of a Vahidi who's the commander of the IRGC and much of Iran's leadership were unaware of the operation that July 7 operation destroyed those three ships. Again, that led to the first wave of attacks. The first first attacks by the US was after that attack. The wave of first wave of attacks was after that attack on these three ships after the MOU. Investigations traced the decision to a hard line

28:37faction linked to influential cleric and former IRGC intelligence chief Hussein Tayyip who had opposed the agreement from the outset. Field commanders were empowered to attack ships. They considered in violation of Iran's control of the shadow homeless without seeking central approval. And it goes back to the point I was told as well that Mosaic structure of the Iran is in a way back fired because it works great during wartime because it's so the Mosaic structures the way Iran decentralizes decision making. It works great during wartime because the decapitation strike takes out all the leadership and the military will continue functioning and operating even without a replacement for the leadership because they might take time to replace the leader so the new one doesn't get killed. And also communication gets intercepted and disrupted throughout the war. And to be able to be able to operate in that environment, the Mosaic structure works really well. However, during peace time, the Mosaic structure could lead to instances like this. So that the head of the former head of the intelligence is the one that called the shots,

29:38telling that in a way not directly calling for the shot, but telling commanders like, hey, if anyone violates strike them, even if you don't have approval, it's okay. I'll take care of it. That type of thing. Pazescan phoned Vahidi, the head of the IRGC. Dave Roberts here. There you are surrounded by fans, sharing wings, sharing drinks, high-fiving random strangers. Everybody remembers the game. Nobody remembers the guy coughing behind you until a few days later. At 2am, you wake up with a fever and your throats on fire. Now what? Urgent care, clothes, ER, slam, telehealth, maybe, but the pharmacy's clothes. You needed a medical emergency kit. These aren't first aid kits. They contain essential prescriptions used for over 30 common conditions, sinus and ear infection, UTIs, stomach bug, travelers diarrhea, and more. On hand before you need them. Use your doctor-developed guidebook to select the right prescription or call their telemedicine doctor standing by. It's like an urgent care and drug store at home. When you're sick, traveling, or stranded, you'll wish you ordered a medical emergency kit.

30:38Order online in minutes and it's shipped to your door and say $45 with my promo code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue. That's promo code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue. Imagine your friend tells you she's taking an innocent family trip to Greenville, South Carolina. We'll call her Emma. The trip sounds great to you. Hiking at Jones Gap, dinner at Topsoil, a room at the best hotel in town. Harmless, right? Here's the thing. Emma and her family never return from Greenville. They disappear. You search for answers, but nothing adds up. Emma had a great life back home. You guys were best friends. What happened? Well the truth is, once Emma realized she could have access to Michelin recognized restaurants, nature, local shops, and performing arts all in one place. Everywhere else started to seem a little. Emma's vacation is a cautionary tale. If you're coming this way, don't forget to tell your friends

31:40and neighbors goodbye. Visit Greenville, South Carolina, but you may never want to leave. Learn more at visit GreenvilleSC.com. And in a raised voice, called the actions reckless and demanded answers following the strikes on the three vessels in the Shader Humus, the attacks derailed efforts to preserve the agreement and prompted renewed U.S. strikes the following day, triggering a major internal power struggle involving accusations of betrayal and threats of resignation by senior generals. Foreign Minister Basarachi was sent to Aman and an unsuccessful effort to diffuse the crisis. The dispute was further complicated by the absence of Mustafa Kaminay. Officials said that even Pesascan, who met Mustafa a few times since he became superior and Supreme Leader, even President Pesascan questioned whether statements and instructions coming out of Kaminay were actually coming out of Mustafa Kaminay. So whether they're actually authentic,

32:43or the commanders saying these are the instructions but they're not. Because very limited people had access to Mustafa. By September, the hard line, that's what I said earlier, by September, the hard line cap had emerged stronger, favoring escalating attacks against U.S. forces, naval vessels, and regional energy infrastructure rather than returning to negotiations. So pretty fascinating story and honestly, I find very believable. It confirms what U and I spoke about a lot in the last couple of months. So yeah, pretty good because you and I have spoken, I think back in June, we did a whole U and I did a whole session talking about this very prospect. So, or July, I guess, is when because it was around these attacks. So it confirms what U and I were talking about like two months ago. So yeah, I believe it. I believe it. That's probably what happened. This is the fog of war. It's not just something that happens in combat. It happens at the strategic level when communications

33:47are under duress and the leadership is separated from each other and people have their own agendas, which I always do. And the IRGC, clearly, obviously, is the more hard line institution in the Islamic Republic of Iran. And they believe, and they're not necessarily wrong, that the U S is in a very weak position right now. And they want to exploit that because they are probably assessing there is a chance that the U S will not be this vulnerable in the long run. And so now's the time to make some hay out of it. And they are. And we'll see where this all lands, but it shows you the mentality of the regime, which is that, or at least of a very powerful element of it, which is that look, we've got to press our luck while we have it now because it might not be there in a couple of years. Yeah, and I want to give you a more optimistic scenario on what

34:48could happen after the midterms because there's the very possible likelihood of a resumption of the war. As I said, I'm the most worried I've been. I really have no opinion one way or another. I'm pretty much 50, 50. I have no fucking clue what's going to happen. But other than the possibility of war, there's always the possibility of Trump just walking away doing the right thing and walking away. That is possible. And I think it is on the table. But there's also the reason he keeps saying after the midterms is the Iranians do want to deal. They've decided they want to deal, but they want to finalize exactly. They want us try to see how how the midterms end up and how much we could trump will because Trump will be weak after the midterms. He will lose the Senate. And if he loses the House as well, then that puts Trump in the US in a much more difficult position, allowing the Iranians the ability to negotiate a good deal. Or obviously they might wait out Trump's term. I think the more likely scenarios, they just wait out the midterms. It's going to be difficult for them, especially with the economic challenges they're facing to wait out Trump's entire term.

35:51Because Trump is open for a deal. He wants a deal pretty desperately. The only question is unwhat terms. I think they'll be the Iranians may become more malleable to finding an end to all this, but not before the midterms because they want to have even more of an up-and-up hand. Does that make sense? Does this want to be weak? I think the midterms are the big inflection point. I will say, I think what you meant, and forgive me if I'm wrong, but I think what you meant is he's going to lose the House and he might lose the Senate because that is the big question. I personally think at this rate he will be losing both. However small the margin is. But if the Senate isn't lost, okay, Trump has a little bit of reprieve just a slight one though, but the House is still going to make his life a living hell. But the Iranians, both the Iranians and the Americans are waiting to see how the midterms shake out. But I would expect I think Alan Err's theory that the

36:55Iranians are going to do an October surprise militarily. I think is very, very likely here to try. Very possible. It will be probably a doozy as well because it's going to have to stop. You're speaking down in today by the way. Am I definitely? I know that they were trying to reach him. Okay, cool. But excellent. Well, I'll follow up with them on this. But I, you know, it'll have to be something significant because it has to be enough to, you know, shock voters, scare people in America and make them vote. We know out of fear. And already people are upset. Who did I talk to yesterday? I can't remember now. I talked to so many people. But one of the things that you had a busy day, man. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it was fun. But I can't remember who. Yeah. One of my co-sureer Robert Barnes, Mark McLean, Garmee's, Carlton. No, that's today. That was two days ago. Yeah, yeah. But it might have been Robert Barnes actually. Charles Finn-Frox, Steve Han, Kenneth Roth, Jeffrey Snyder and Larry. I actually think it was two days ago with Robert Barnes.

37:57Robert Barnes, I think, is the one who who basically articulated that the Republicans are done. Like they're, they're shot in terms of winning this. And no, it was Hankey because Hankey was saying that now they, or Jeffrey Snyder, because now basically the Republicans, yeah, the Republicans have come to the conclusion that we just have to try to bribe the voter with promises of $5,000 payouts because there's no other hope that it's too late for the Republicans to fix the economy. It's too late for there to be any positive momentum. So we're just going to try to bribe. So that is the logic behind why Trump is saying, I will give you $5,000 if you vote for Republican. It's not going to be enough, but that's what we're facing. And the Iranians know it. They know it. Do you think, do you think it could work? I was, what's your video today that looked at historically whether bribes like this payouts like this would work? They don't work that well. They don't, but in general, they don't, but it's never really happened to that level in the US. We've never had this flagrant. It's never, it's, this is like literally, they're calling it a

39:01dividend, but this is literally a bribe. This is, if you vote for me, I'll give you $5,000. But did you think it could work? Did you think it could have an impact on the result? No, I think, I think as fuel prices, I think as the price of everything notably groceries, notably the groceries, as that goes up significantly, and it is and it will, it's going to be impossible for the government, for the Republican Party to trick the American voter into not voting against them. The American voter is very angry right now and they're blaming the Republicans because the Republicans in 2024, their whole selling point was the economy's really bad under Biden and the Democrats. We're going to fix it vote for us and the people did and it's two years later and everything is as bad if not worse and it's getting worse. So there's no way the Republicans in a fair and free election are going to walk away with the kind of win that Trump's trying to convince everybody he's going to get. All right, so another important piece in

40:03use today. So the president, Pesyskian did give an interview and one of the things he talked about was the UAE and the Gulf or the Gulf as well. We had a good conversation with the Crown Prince of Abu W. We spoke about it yesterday. We said the Brick Summit, I'll show you the picture. And agree, so the Crown Prince of Abu W. I think he's next in mind to become president. So it's a significant person I could be wrong and agreed to put the past behind us and build a better future. Now this has been the rhetoric from Iran for a while but it just shows that these two countries are improving relations. And then it also said right now we have a very good relationship, very good relation with the UAE and we can expand it and with other regional countries the same. So we would like to have sincere relations with all of them. However, it is the U.S. that does not want this to happen and the reason is that they want to utilize the petroleum reservoirs of the region and instead they are selling weapons and missiles to the regional countries

41:05in order to scare us from each other and pit us against each other. It is exploiting the capital of the region and also destroying peace and stability. Now Trump was asked about it as well. He was asked today as well this morning. What do you make of the Gulf nations meeting with Iran? He says, I don't care. That's up to them. If they can be happy, it's fine. And I can tell you this. I've talked about it before. There are factions, very influential factions within Trump's administration. People he listens to. I'm not sure whether he's going to be listening to them or not. They actually see this as an opportunity for the Gulf countries to no longer rely on U.S. security because the U.S. security, the U.S. can no longer afford to protect the Gulf. It's not really feasible anymore, economically and militarily feasible. So there are some members of the administration that see this and actually prefer a new security infrastructure. And now, would it be surprised that I believe in it less than a few months ago, but I wouldn't be surprised if this could all end up very positively if the U.S. just completely adapt their approach

42:11to Iran. They can complete U.S. But that has happened historically where either under this president and Trump pulls a Trump or under the next president where they come in and say, you know, we don't need to be enemies with Iran. We've tried that. It did not work. The Israelis want what they want, but they want to get what they want. It's better for U.S. interests to have better relations with Iran and just completely turn a new page with the country. I hope that could happen. There are members within the administration talking about it. It likely will happen if it does at all under the next president. I don't think Trump, I think Trump, if anything, at best. And again, I think this is a low likelihood at this point. I think at best, Trump will basically just try to freeze the conflict and then write it out until the end of his admit because he doesn't want to admit as much as he may. And I know, I know, like Jonathan Swan is saying his sources are telling him that Trump wants to deal. Okay, maybe, but Trump wanting something and Trump getting something or two different things because

43:16Trump also wants to be seen as the winner. He wants to be viewed as the big dog. And this is like a kind of alpha male thing that he's doing. And there's no way he's going to look like the alpha male if he, after the midterms ends up sort of slinking away the way Joe Biden did. And I can guarantee you the Democrats for cheap political points. If he does this, they're not going to let him live it down. But two years from now, whoever is the next president, I suspect that reality will become that we are, you know, the new president is going to have a lot more political capital to do that kind of a significant change. Whoever it is. I agree. I don't think it will happen under Trump. And I need to make a correction as well. So the talks within Trump's administration, very close circles, not about a new security architecture, whatever they're calling it, that involves the Gulf getting closer to Iran, what they're looking for is the Gulf taking care of their own security. Yeah, yeah. Not getting closer to Iran. So I think I'm a spoke earlier,

44:19or maybe I didn't explain it well. And the policy right now within most of the people in the administration is not, we become friends with the Iran or war. It's war, or we keep weakening in Iran through other means. There isn't, I don't know of any, any, any voices within Trump's in the circle. I haven't been told of any of the, they're not there. They're advocating for friendship. So the goal in, remember, I told you that whole strategy, get rid of the tentacles, weakening all the different proxies. Right. And then, Dave Roberts here, there you are, surrounded by fans, sharing wings, sharing drinks, high-fiving random strangers. Everybody remembers the game. Nobody remembers the guy coughing behind you until a few days later at 2 a.m. you wake up with the fever and your throats on fire. Now what? Urgent care, close. ER, slam, telehealth, maybe, but the pharmacy's close. You needed a medical emergency kit. These aren't first aid kits. They contain essential prescriptions used for over 30 common conditions, sinus and ear infection, UTI, stomach bug, travelers diarrhea, and more. On hand before you need them. Use your doctor-developed

45:22guidebook to select the right prescription or call their telemedicine doctor standing by. It's like an urgent care and drugstore at home. When you're sick, traveling, or stranded, you'll wish you ordered a medical emergency kit. Order online in minutes and it's shipped to your door and say $45 with my promo code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue. That's promo code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue. Show button here. Football season is finally back. And prize picks is bringing out their best offer yet. New users who sign up will get $150 in line-ups if you win your first $5 lineup. That's right. If you win your first $5 lineup, you'll get $150 in line-ups. On prize picks, you simply pick two to six players, pick more or less on their staff projections, and submit your lineup. Then sweat it out as you watch your picks play out live. It's the best way to get more locked in on game day. Make all the picks you want. This football season, all in the same app. Also, prize picks is going crazy with

46:23the deals to start the football season, giving users a new promo every day during stack September. And now, prize picks is available nationwide. So what are you waiting for? Lock in for kickoff because everyone and everything is on prize picks. What you want? Download the app today and use co-add large to get $150 instantly in line-ups if you win your first $5 lineup. Prize picks, run your game. Economically strangling Iran until Iran folds and concedes in some way. There's no more talk of regime change. regime change. regime change right now is completely off the table. If it back on the table later on, maybe Trump just wants out of this. Does want the Iranist control district who wants to move on to the next thing? I hope you're right. I hope you're right about that because I think that that is still very much on his mind. He may not be his number one priority, but I think that Trump would love to be able to say it was looking down, but I pulled it out of the fire and I got this regime out of power, which is what's none of my

47:25predecessors could ever do. And that would be for him a huge win. It's not going to happen, but I would not discount. And plus he's, you know, we'll see what happens in the Israeli elections too, because Netya who is not giving up. I know everybody says that he has, but I don't think he has. He has not given up the dream of ending the regime in Iran. And if he stays in power, God help us because it's going to be a whole new set of terrors coming out of, you know, Israeli policy circles. So. Yeah, I'm just reading some of the other updates here. There's the economic front. So the sound, the east-west pipeline will take more than a month to repair, as you mentioned earlier. And another piece of news on that front is that, you know, the diesel crunch, the diesel prices are, you know, Trump is realizing how much I've done. Costco is starting to ration their diesel. They're fuel now. I don't know if you saw that

48:29in the drive, which is a trade publication. They're starting to ration their diesel. Yeah, I'm just, I'm proscos now rationing. Now I got it. It's now rationing motor oil because the global shortage is getting real. A Kirkland signature oil change is nearly doubled in price, but that's not the most concerning change in how Costco's selling lubricants these days. Yeah, not only does 10 quads of Kirkland signature full synthetic now cost $58 when he used to go for as low as $30, but stores, tours are now imposing a two per customer per week limit. The obvious culprit is supply around that lack thereof. So Costco's a big deal here in America. Costco is like a lot of middle class. I'm not Costco. Look at that. I'm like, I've lived months in the US. I know. Okay, I didn't know. I didn't know. Costco's big in Australia where I'm from. So I used to go there. Oh, it is. I didn't know that. I did not. You got there more for the, like the bulk orders. I used to get absolutely bulk. You want 1000 rolls of toilet paper for five bucks. You go there. No,

49:33no, but it's, but it's a big deal that there because a lot of people join Costco and Sam's Club, which is their rival, specifically because of the cheap gas when gas prices are high, they love those memberships because and if Costco's starting to ration now, this is going to impact like middle class Americans right before the election. This is like shocking, you know, so it's it's a it's a sign of the times though and it's not down the line. It's coming now. So we were talking about like, Hey, in July, the sky didn't fall. Thank God it didn't fall. But like I said at the time, it's just a punt because the war continued and it's expanding now. And I still want to just reinforce the who these are not done yet. And this is going to really complicate things. Even if we are able to somehow have a breakthrough diplomatically with Iran, who knows who these are going to do in their part of the world because they're not

50:34owned and operated by the Iranians. So they might decide, well, screw it, we're going to keep doing what we're doing regardless of what charge of fee as well. Remember the room is they wanted to charge a fee a while ago. And the reports where the Iranians told them not yet let us saw Alfie and then we could talk with you guys about a fee. That's what the Iranians told you. We'll see how long they adhere to that because the who these are not owned and operated by the Iranians. They are their own group with their own set of interests. So, yeah. So, so we're covering for me telling me Costco like we have Costco in the United States. I really, yeah, Marley, we're with there's a place called Starbucks. We have a coffee there. Chick-fil-a's where we eat our chicken burger. Chicken burger. What the hell is a chicken burger, Mario? Chicken sandwich. Sorry. Chicken burger. Yeah, well, hey, I forget you did live in the US. I didn't know that. I always forget that. I spend the favorite time there, yeah. I go there a lot. Well, you'll have to visit me when you're when you're here next. I'll tell you, Craziest, one of my trips to the US.

51:39I know if I should I can say it on there. I'll rip it up with it with a pretty crazy story on one of my trips to the US when I first started gaining prominence. And there was a leak to NBC. It was a crazy story. I'll tell you about it in a second. Maybe I shouldn't bring it up again. So, yeah, so that's on that front. Kind of the last comment you'll read is Putin a comment on bricks, the power of bricks. And that's important because it shows the change in the world order. The world post-Around War and the world pre-Around War. That change has been happening, but it's going to be accelerating significantly. And we've seen those indications from that statement coming out of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to the brick summit. When the statement's coming out of the brick summit, the image is coming out of one year almost like flirting with a raachi. Yeah, with the pin. Yeah, yeah. And Lavrov joking with them. Like, yeah, Chris, let's go on there guys. Now, where one of Larry shirts now, now that Larry gave him the shirt, Lavrov needs to be donning that. But anyway, you've got it. Putin, on the

52:42growing power of bricks in a New Delhi summit speech on multipolarities at the following, as they talk about multipolarity, domestic trade with bricks has reached $1.3 trillion as bricks accounts for 49% of global GDP. Almost a quarter of global exports is accounted for by bricks countries. We have a great new horizons for investments in cooperation. That's something that doesn't get much attention. But people were laughing at bricks in the early days when I was covering it. They were laughing at it a year ago. Yeah, it's pretty meaningless. Yeah, yeah. More of a symbolic organization where they come and meet, but when it comes to actual policies and alliances, nothing much comes out of it. Well, this is changing pretty quickly and trade, the way they trade in their own domestic currencies, to a military cooperation, foreign policy, and Rabhosh Ma between India and China and China and Russia, some of the worst things that can happen to US foreign policy and US influence around the world. Both these are accelerating.

53:43That's right. Which is to remember, at the SCO and the bricks, they both did a statement, the combined members, which in many cases are the same members. That includes India and Pakistan. They made, they got together and they made a statement denouncing, quote, military unilateralism by the US and Israelis. India and Pakistan, who ate each other? So it's, they didn't, I don't think that mentioned the US and the Israelis. I think they said like it was directly wrong. No, it was directed at the, they're the only other. Right. This was a big deal. I mean, it was a diplomatic way of putting a marker down. But my point is, is that India and Pakistan were on the same side twice now on this issue. So that's a big problem if you're sitting, you know, living by the old way, in Washington, you know, and there were no, I don't believe there was any representatives from the State Department at either the SCO meeting or the Brooks meeting, which is just a massive diplomatic failure. We should be sending our people to engage, even if they're on the side,

54:48because this is a massive, massive conglomeration of countries doing business. And it's just stupid for us to sit it out. This is what, remember, this is what the Soviet Union, the reason the UN authorized the Korean War is because as the buildup to Korea was happening, the Soviets protested by not participating in the UN Security Council meeting, which meant all of the members could then vote unanimously to support the South Koreans against the Soviet-backed North Korean regime. Had the Soviet simply continued engaging in the UN Security Council process, it's likely that the UN would have never been able to vote to support the US war effort. Similarly, the Americans keep kicking the Chinese out of things like the International Space Station. And what happens? The Chinese build their own better, newer modular space station, and they're doing their own thing now, and they're moving beyond us. And so this whole idea of

55:48not engaging is such a stupid move by the United States. We should be on the ground there, engaging with friends and enemies alike, and trying to win more friends over. We don't do that, it's very imperious. Yeah, and backfires, we've seen that with the chips with the Chinese. We stop the US, stop exporting certain chips to China. China develops their own out of necessity. You know, humans are very, the perseverance among humans is kind of in our DNA. So whenever there is hard chips, we find a way, as a species, which helps us evolve all the China. Particularly great culture. China. Yeah, and so when you put China in a position where they don't have the chips, they will innovate their way out of it, and they did exactly that, never have better chips or equivalent chips. And when the Americans change their mind, they said, you know, what, we'll export those chips to you guys, they're like, oh, we don't need them, and China ordered their companies not to buy those chips from the US or buy less of them, and to keep buying the domestic ones. So the strategy backfired in the same thing, but with weaponization of the US financial system, you penalize countries, you weaponize the system, or those countries will

56:53find alternatives like Sips and others, the Chinese system. And I am reminded of what Alan Air said to me two interviews ago. He reminded me that, you know, about a decade ago, when he was negotiating the joint comprehensive plan of action between us and the UK, the nuclear deal, between us and Iran, he said he had Russia, China, and the Europeans, and the Indians, all on the same side with him. And he said, those days are gone. We will never be able to have that again. It was a window of opportunity, and that window is now closed. And that was just about a decade or so ago. That shows you how quickly things move against the United States, against the powerful country, like the United States in history. So yeah. Good chat. Yes, sir. We've got a good lineup today. We've got two. I know you will. You're going to speak to your speakers. I will speak to him because I'm pretty upset about what's happening to Gaza. So I want to confront him. And he's, he's always really receptive to me

57:55whenever I'm upset. We're going to go back and forth. So I'll have a chat. You've got Alan Air right after him. You should have got Harry and Malcolm. And then I go to sleep. You have Raymond and Karen. Yeah. You should ask Conorikus how the hell the IDF plans on doing whatever there might be doing in the against the hoothies when they are dealing with Lebanon. But there's no plans. There's no Israeli plan set. No, but what if they were, you should ask him if they were to get involved. What would even that? No, I want to confront him on Gaza. I'm pissed off at what's happening. Well, you should be 60% of aid is still not being allowed into the region. I've far out after all these years. And some of the rhetoric coming out of Israel has been normalized. It's sick. Just remember what Cooper Wasserman said to me last month, every building that the IDF hit in Gaza was a legitimate military target. Just remember that. That's what they believe. That's what the elite in Israel believed. I don't think Jonathan believes that. Let's see. Well, I'd

58:58be interesting to find out also. You should ask him about that too. All right, sir. I will, I will let you go. Bye-bye. Thank you. All right, guys. I'll be live again in I think five minutes and a couple of minutes with Jonathan Conorikus for my IDF spokesperson and member of the FDD. I have freedom of democracies. Foundation of the foundation for the defensive democracies. The thing that you guys know. I saw you speaking to Jonathan Conorikus, then Brandon will speak to Alan Erick, and I'll be speaking to Larry Johnson and Malcolm Lance. And then Brandon will wrap it up with Raymond Zuccaro and one more guest. I forgot the name. So I'll see you guys in a couple of minutes. Raymond Zuccaro and Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kriatowski. See you guys. Dave Roberts here. There you are, surrounded by fans, sharing wings, sharing drinks, high-fiving random strangers. Everybody remembers the game. Nobody remembers the guy coughing behind you until a few days later at 2 a.m. you wake up with the fever and your throats on fire. Now what? Urgent care, close. ER, slam, telehealth,

1:00:01maybe, but the pharmacies close. You needed a medical emergency kit. These aren't first aid kits. They contain essential prescriptions used for over 30 common conditions, sinus and ear infection, UTI, stomach bug, travelers diarrhea, and more. On hand before you need them. Use your doctor-developed guidebook to select the right prescription or call their telemedicine doctor standing by. It's like an urgent care and drugstore at home. When you're sick, traveling, or stranded, you'll wish you ordered a medical emergency kit. Order online in minutes and it's shipped to your door and say $45 with my promo code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue. That's promo code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue. Show button here. Football season is finally back and prize picks is bringing out their best offer yet. New users who sign up will get $150 in lineups if you win your first $5 lineup. That's right. If you win your first $5 lineup, you'll get $150 in lineups. On prize picks, you simply pick two to six players,

1:01:03pick more or less on their staff projections, and submit your lineup. Then, sweat it out as you watch your picks play out live. It's the best way to get more locked in on game day. Make all the picks you want. This football season, all in the same app. Also, prize picks is going crazy with the deals to start the football season, giving users a new promo every day during stack September. And now, prize picks is available nationwide. So, what are you waiting for? Lock in for kickoff because everyone and everything is on prize picks. What you want? Download the app today and use code at large to get $150 instantly in lineups if you win your first $5 lineup. Prize picks, run your game.