LIVE | Reform conference round-up – everything you need to know

0:00Support comes from wise, the smart way to manage the currencies you need around the world. Your life is global, your money should be too. Some providers promise no fees on overseas transfers. Don't be fooled. Extra costs often hide in bloated exchange rates. Choose wise. You can send, spend and receive money in over 40 currencies. Count on the exchange rates that you'd usually see on Google. That's how millions save billions on hidden fees. Be smart, get wise, visit wise.com, season C's apply. Hello and welcome to Coffee Hashtops where we are reporting live from reform party conference. I am delighted to be joined today by Tim Shipman and James Hale. To kick off the podcast or maybe Tim you can start. I want to know your reflections on reform conference and any highlights. Oh, I mean, look, I think the whole thing has been absolutely fascinating and I think quite

1:04significant in a number of ways. Not all in ways that the reform party faithful would like. And I think it helps if we divide things into two here. I think there's a bit of a misnomer about press coverage of what's been going on here and some of the noises off. And I think if you look at it from a political point of view, this has basically been a success. I think you had the Bardella memorandum understanding, which is a very positive kind of thing that shows that forage can do business elsewhere that you can get things done. You had a decent punchy speech and I think the entire framing of this conference that unlike all the others, we will do the things we say we're going to do and here's the proof. In a hundred days, people will be resigning or be fired if they don't deliver on that. I think that's a useful framing. I think had that been the sole message of this conference, I think you'd be all be walking away delighted. But I also have listened to a lot of reform people this week and they some of them watched the channel for things, some of them didn't,

2:05some of them didn't want to watch it. Some of them have come up to me and said, I don't care about the detail because it's a stitch up, it's a bunch of climate change leftists and all that is true. But what I would say in response to that is that the second bit is, are you ready to govern? And I think that's what's taken a bit of a knock this week, which is a shame from your point of view because it's precisely that which forage was hoping to move further along. And I think that's true for a couple of reasons. I think politically the way they've played it is absolutely fine. Turn around say it's all the lefty hoax and a plot and we've been stitched up, it was in trapmen, all of that stuff works with the base, it worked in the hall and it works, frankly, kicking seven shades of something out of the media along the way with that audience. I think it's worth looking at the detail because I think the detail is revealing of a culture that

3:06is not yet ready to walk through the door of number 10. And I think it's also redolent of some people around Nigel who are frankly a bit high on their own supply. And I don't think really understand what being a government is all about. Now if forage takes this opportunity to reset his team, reset his approach, keep the insurgency but look a bit happier and try and acknowledge the fact that running a government is a difficult and serious business. I think some good can come of this and we may look back on this as a turning point and a significant week for positive reasons on both sides. I spoke to one advisor last night who compared the three day conference to who were football fan using the analogy of Istanbul 2005. So three in a little down a half time, three all at the end of the match. And then hopefully today they can win the conference on penalties as it were. You've obviously got a big offer, a 17 billion pounds worth by raising the personal tax thresholds 20,000. There's Robert Jenryx big thing talking about

4:10the economy. And I do think the policy offering has been sharpened up over the past year. It's quite striking to me that when I'm on panels of people I sort of bravenment, I think they kind of understand the reformed political economy in lots of ways. And I think that you look at the policy papers being produced by the likes of Amar Joahal and his team and Milbite Tower. I think that has certainly improved from last year when you only just had the Britannia card when you had things such as Operation Restoring Justice. So there is a sort of building out of the party. They've also things you've got a whole new contingent of MSPs MS is I spoke to one of them and they said oh it seems to be going quite well. I said yes, and I'm sure if it wasn't we'd all be hearing about it. I remember all the focus on the councils last year. That said of course in terms of the wider Westminster, the story that broke on that first night will be the one that dominates. I think from talking to members and I'm sure they can correct me if I'm wrong here. I think it hasn't really cut through or affected them. I think the reform critique is that there is a hypocritical establishment and that we have reached the point now where the country is so debased and such a dire state that frankly you need the man at the moment. And I think talking to some Tory defectors

5:12they use phrases such as you know, Churchill wasn't the right man in I-30 but was in 1940 etc. That said I think that at certain levels of the party it will cause reverberations. At an elite level clearly I think Nigel Farage's team very effective on what's gone on. Dan Jukes has been a very very integral part of that project for 10 years. I also think James Orr had a very much accache and appeal was very much set up as some are very key obviously the links to Trump world. So we'll wait to see how that all turns out. I also think there was a bit of an anger and uprising on the I think Thursday night. I think people were getting in touch with people at the top reform saying what's going on. Obviously what candidate selection going on there's lots of bright eyed bushy tell people here pushing. We'll need to take a sacrifice and sanary willing to change their jobs, willing to potentially put their family through the ringer. And then we've got all of this going on all these documentaries etc. That said though I think reform have obviously played some of their strengths you know protestors aside it's been a very flashy glamorous work the likes of Aaron Loughborough and Ben Sheriff in the operations team have done their job. And I think that a lot of people here will leave feeling quite encouraged. And I'd

6:13also note Nigel Farage's speech. I think interestingly I know this is a bit heretical to set reform. I think Jordan Madela gave the best speech to the conference. But Nigel Farage I think it was an important speech. I think he talked about you know bleeding and this party is the next election. I think it was a reminder that some of the commentary and Westminster about him stepping down. He is in this the next few years and he very much does feel away to the expectation. He's been seeing people today coming up clasping his hands. Saying thank you were with you etc. And I think after this they've had the difficulties the key thing is to use this as a springboard. Go back to Westminster get them into going. I focus on that very difficult budget for new labour government. Well you tell us no you've been you've been our delegate whisperer. What have you been finding when you've been out and about in the conference sort of foyer moving. So the first thing I was struck by canvassing views was that delegates here span across the country. I met people you know from all the way south in Cornwall up to Scotland and all the way in between. And really what everyone had to say about this investigation was that it didn't phase them too much.

7:16Yeah. A lot of people felt that this was some sort of stitch up by channel four who they argued have traditionally been very hostile to right-wing parties but particularly reform and they felt like perhaps that media outlet wouldn't treat the labour party in the same way. So look the vast majority of people I spoke to were not too bothered but how about we find out what the room thinks. Can I just see through a raise of hands who here is a reform party member? Okay so most people in the audience reform party members and among you could you please raise your hand if the channel four documentary did not change your view of the party you still very much support Nigel and support what the party's doing. Okay so most hands does anyone want to raise their hand if if it's give them some doubts at all? One hands up. I also think I mean if you look at that video I mean look the thing that I think is problematic more than the whole sort of architecture of

8:21the spending arrangement was the idea that both of the two guys who've been suspended were the ones proposing the way of doing it. It wasn't like the sting operation said why don't we do this and they went oh okay they were the ones saying this is we know how to do this this is how we do it and the law you have to show in ten and I think you know it's it's problematic from that point of view. I mean it doesn't mean they're going to get their call as well it doesn't mean they're going to go to jail or anything like that that might happen I think it's fairly unlikely because the money and the end was not handed over though the law says what matters is a reasonable expectation that it might be handed over not that the money was handed over but I think the other thing that's interesting about that and I wrote about this in the blog yesterday you know you've got Dan Jukes is a 30 year old he's a very impressive guy he's he's come a long way he's Uber loyal to Nigel Farage everybody says he's brilliant at running you know acting as Farage is gatekeeper but he's a 30 year old guy with no experience of government saying he's going to be the chief of staff in Downing Street everybody else I've ever known who worked in government for them that was the bit that was the most disturbing and laughable part of that video

9:26someone like Antonio Ramayos been a you know he's the cabinet secretary she she she would eat Dan Jukes alive I'm afraid if he were ever in that job I see former Tory minister laughing along here knowing that there may well be some truth in what I've just said and so I think that's indicative of a degree to which some people in reform think it's in the bag I don't think it's in the bag yet and some people think that it will be easy now you need to look back and see what happened with Keir Starmer and all the other people who've walked into Downing Street thinking all the people who did it before were blithering idiots and there's no way that we'll be able to screw this up and and realize that this is actually very difficult and complicated some experiences helpful and and having some pretty high caliber heavy thrusting people in those big jobs is important and at the moment Nigel does not have that around him particularly you know he's brought in some experience ministerial people but in the back room I think that is still a little bit lacking in in reform and

10:27you know there were some lessons there from this week I think that's correct in terms of it's not necessarily adversity is the response to adversity that defines us now you've arrived to be written off countless times I've been writing book recently on reform and I go back to 2018 and the second referendum people were saying Nigel Farage back then has had more comebacks than Frank so you look at how many times he's been dismissed etc and that is often what Farage's genius has been is that his opponents then have sort of imperial overreach they sort of write him off laugh at him you think of the debanking Scalant 2023 and then they underestimate him and then he hits back and he takes down the head of Britain's biggest bank so I think that is in his favor and he's obviously a very county politician I think the question is this is that Nigel Farage is of the great disruptor of British politics he's the man who makes the political weather he's a Joe Chamber and not power in that sense can he now create something stable which is more than just frenetic volatility and I think that will be the key thing is bridging the people who've helped build him up on that way who've been in his foot soldiers the Farage East the long marches while also making that transition to get people and I think the key point as well we're talking about the room here

11:30obviously the party's on side I think what we've seen from the polling is how remarkably resilient that 20% or so of the country was the key thing is ensuring that enough people either feel able to backform whoever backed it before or are able to stay at home in much the way there were many Tories in 2024 who didn't particularly like Kirsten but they thought I can leave the country to him in a way they couldn't with Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 and they were so disgusted by and they went out and vote so I think it's sometimes about the message that you send in terms of getting that vote up so James as you said there is this sort of 20% constituency who are die hard reformers but often the commentary and pollsters say that to be a party of government Farage does need to creep back up to that 30% mark and if possible even go over it so who are that 10% that keep dipping in and out of the polls can you describe the sort of demographics of those people so I think that they are broadly maybe traditional conservatives and some of the traditional they were voting

12:35different parts of the country I think some of that is more in the south the conservative vote I think they were willing to flirt with reform last summer when they were coming up to 32% to zone the polls they may be more middle middle class I think traditionally a lot of Nigel Farage's support bases come from the upper working class and lower middle class in terms of the demographics and I think a lot of the people have proven more resilient given Nigel Farage's whole strategy has been stranky off the Tories since January I think the Tories voters held up much stronger in the south and I think you look at the local elections reform did amazing well in the north and the middle and just blew through those traditional labor red seats but I think it was with more of a battle in places like Norfolk Suffolk and obviously London as well so I think those are the kind of people he needs to win over and I think it'll be interesting to see how today's policy lands on tax they've done a huge amount polling on this this is them saying a new dividing line the conservative party always talks about inheritance tax we can maybe expect that to be the big headline policy of the new shadow chance land of Griffith the conference this is about working people that's the reform argument and they hope it'll appeal to people in the middle middle

13:36class I'd say don't forget Nigel Farage said the conservative party would have been destroyed by now and for good or ill it hasn't been and again they looked over pretty solid 20% one of these parties is going to get to 27 28% and take the fight to the Labour Party in all likelihood now you're going to have a world where reform is taking seats off the Labour Party in the north and the Tories are fighting the Lib Dems and bits of the suburban Labour Party in the south and if reform wants to sort of be the dominant force of those two I think it needs to look like something that's a bit safer sometimes and that is not the instinct of Farage and a lot of the people around it's not the instinct of a lot of the people who are here at this conference but they want a plan they want something that looks like a competent government they want something that doesn't with too badly they're prepared to put up with a bit of roguery people voted for Boris Johnson in in in spades not in spite of his roguery but in a lot of cases because of it the British public

14:39lights rogues but it doesn't like crooks and if you can't walk that line properly and Farage has been very good in the past at walking all these lines the racial line he knows where to stop in a way that I don't think Rupert Lone knows where to stop and I think some in this party would question whether Zia Yusuf always knows where to stop you know you had Nadine Dohery's telling him to throw his phone in the river and get rid of his Twitter account yesterday you had Aaron Banks not exactly a crypto communist saying there's too many youngsters around Nigel and we need some grey hairs I can see Julian Braser examining his hair in the mirror this morning thinking that this is pretty solid grey here you know should we see what the audience makes of Zia and his tweets recently could you please raise your hand if you like Zia's tweets and if you support his social media use okay so less hands are than before in terms of

15:40the question about Channel 4 can you please raise your hand if you think Zia needs to slow down on social media perhaps control his tweets a bit more okay so a bit less but there are quite a few hands up there I think this does touch on something which is going to say is you know I think Zia Yusuf is and I'm understanding is obviously reform does these internal surveys at hidden most popular people he's regularly one of the top three I think the Nigel for us obviously and Leanderson but he's very very popular among a lot of reform and he's a popular figure but there's also an element reform which is a bit less online put off by some of the rhetoric and also when that is written up in a headline or certain way the question is always is this the most helpful battle to be having now and sometimes you pick your fights I would say but I think that he's equal opportunities in his passion shall we say there's a sudden equanimity about that yeah no I think that's right I mean I wrote a piece a couple of weeks ago which he was very unhappy about but every quoted it was from someone working in and around reform headquarters so these are not views consigned to the

16:44sort of you know soppy mainstream media commentary at these are views that are concerning people at the top of the party and I've got I'm going to read a little bit of this I'll have to be quite careful because I don't want to identify the person but all of these problems you take the money stuff Zia kind of sounding off now and again some of it it's all great for the base the way they've handled it but it's also exhausting I mean James because he spent a lot of time you know like your director of communications spent his 30th birthday firefighting the stuff last Thursday if you're anywhere near government and you're facing questions about funding and propriety that is stopping you governing the country all of this stuff is a massive distraction so this is from what I would say is legitimately one of the bigger reform social media cheerleaders who said you know it's so exhausting and frustrating having to spend so much time defending all this stuff

17:46general sort of comments about you know we need to get on look like a government prepare policy all that sort of thing the question is whether serious cultural change is really possible for people have been operating the same way for 15 years when the stakes were no in near as high that's not me saying that that is one of you and you know some of the comments about Zia which were pretty lurid and I got into lots of trouble for including them but frankly when you're a journalist and someone gives you explosive quotes you're not doing a job if you don't include them the problem with all this is it it takes up time it distracts attention from what you're actually trying to do if you're in government that is multiplied tenfold so it would be really good for reform to sort all this out before you get anywhere near the general and there's a certain irony I think in lots of the Tory defectors one of the attraction for people like Danny Krueger is the ability to rerun the 2019 government the 2019 post Brexit Boris coalition in reform and so the tragedy would be if the same mistakes played out in a slightly different context and lessons were not learned from

18:49that and also don't forget for us has had a huge success by saying I'm not the same as these other people this other lot the uniparty they a can't govern and they'd be their crooks their vinyl they give each other jobs and purages and all that stuff and he said he won't give donors purages good I mean Keir Starmer said the same thing you wait and see his resignation on his list will will judge him then but if you start to look like everybody else that is a problem for the and just looking ahead to Labour and Tory conference and which we will all be attending as well the conference marathon god save us all god save us all how does the likes of Andy Burnham and Kimmy Badenock and obviously they will take very different approaches respond to reform because obviously a lot of conservatives have moved to Nigel Farage but so to have a lot of Labour supporters a lot of people here are the exact demographics and the exact people the Labour party was established

19:50to protect and to look after but unfortunately for them you know these people feel abandoned because when they get raised concerns concerns about the likes of immigration Labour turned up there knows that them they smeared them as racist and now they've lost these voters so Burnham and Badenock surely will both be looking to at least try and win back some people how do they respond to Farage going forward after this conference and ahead of their own ones so I think given the reshuffle which has been received well in kind of the Tory world of SW1 etc among the conservatives I think there is some pressure now on Kimmy Badenock to make the most of this I mean I remember there was a great phrase that was doing the rounds of Milbank Tower at the height of last year which was the only ones who can stop us ourselves about reform and you might say that the last few weeks have shown a pretty good effort to try and do that but given reforms difficulties if the conservatives can't make some kind of comeback and bear in mind the party is still down on 2024 and still down and where it was when Kimmy Badenock took over she's still three points or so down on what

20:50she was they really need to get a good offer a conference say look you've had your flotation you've had your maybe you know adulterous affair reform now come back to the conservatives were a change party and I think we next year we're all talking about a general election here next year you've got male elections 10,000 counsellors pending local government reorganization or up and at that set of locals it looks like reform are going to overtake the conservatives the large party local government and on that point you've got them bigger in the Senate bigger in hollyroot bigger and local government bigger membership bigger donations so I mean I think we need to see some kind of conservative come back if you want to see that and then on labor I'm quite struck Annie Burnham is taking a less moralizing tone towards I think reform Kierstama tried to make out they were the bad guys and yeah couldn't really work out what he wants to do he seemed to like and reform to some fascistic organization Annie Burnham I think has done the sort of tinkerbell strategy of ignoring reform let's see how that holds particularly after that budget but I think right now he needs to try and make an argument and they can reconnect with those labor communities that you just spoke of that I think there'll be a slightly different approach at the two conferences to be honest I think

21:52labor will largely ignore reform I think Andy Burnett it's going to be an Andy Burnham rally we we still won't have a budget so a lot of the sort of inherent divisions within the labor party will not be on show it will be a jamboree to show that the new prime minister is popular he'll want to make all his own people feel good but as you say I don't think they'll be the same sort of overt anti reform rhetoric that there was I think he knows that that's alienating to people who traditionally were labor supporters and some of them might come back I mean I think a lot of people who've transferred to reform have no intention of going back but labor will just be trying to maximize their vote and look like a big dominant government that does a load of things I think it'll be a fairly dull conference the only thing that matters really with the with the government is the budget and only then will we really know which mass Andy Burnham has nailed his colors to I think the Tory conference they'll you know they're always interested in concerned by reacting against reform you know I think there'll be plenty of policy to try and compete with what's happened here I think there'll be an effort to show that their dead firm on migration

22:58but they'll try and make an offer that is more naturally targeted at middle class voters on the economy and I think inheritance tax is the obvious thing to do it's saved David Cameron's vacant in 2007 and I think they'll they'll try that gambit again and I think I think there will be a load of noises about we've learned our lesson but we we don't have the sort of whiff of corruption around us that they will claim that reform does I think that's probably a slightly unfair claim but it's one that they'll make they'll try and play to that southern middle class vote and say you know you've seen reform now on display and you don't like the look of that do you so come back to us and make us at the bigger of the right wing parties I think that I think that's how it will go all right well with that I think we all wrap up you've been such a lovely audience thank you so much for coming thank you Tim thank you James and thank you all for listening to coffee house shots live

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