LIVE REACTION: Michigan's Very Real Underwood Problem

0:00This is Belie, one network, every topic, everywhere. Michigan just beat Western Michigan 13 to 12 and I'll be honest, I'm kind of in a mix of emotions right now. It's a Big Ten podcast or I'm pissed. It's a Buckeye fan, I find it comical and as someone who wants to see the Big Ten be the best conference in college football, I'm really grateful we don't have to rely on Bryce Underwood to be good because in this game he was anything but it's time to have a serious conversation about what Michigan does next and that's exactly what we're gonna talk about here on this episode of the Big Ten Huddle presented by Fandall but first before we get into the Bryce Underwood stuff we're gonna get into that trust me but before we do that I have to say something because I know exactly what people are going to accuse me of here if I don't say it. Listen I stick up for the Big Ten when I think there's a logical argument to make. I'm not a rational but I'm also not afraid to go against SEC bias national narratives you know I defend the conference when

1:00there are national or lazy national narratives out there I defend schedules I'll push back when I think people are piling on just because it's the Big Ten but but I'm also not going to sit here and pretend that Saturday was anything other than just an absolute disaster for Michigan and neither should Michigan fans either. If you're a Michigan fan watching this like listen to me because you've got to stop listening to this terrible media that tries to make it excuse for everything and tries to tell you that Bryce Underwood is somehow a good quarterback because he's not at least not in this game because Michigan absolutely had no reason to get one more snap off after Bryce Underwood was so inaccurate that he could not throw a Hail Mary into the end zone like my word he threw it like a touchback where it went out of the end zone now I know I know Michigan fans are gonna make the argument that the officials got it right the last second on the clock belong there you're wrong first off I'm not gonna make that argument because I don't believe it and also I don't believe it because it's not true the ball was clearly still in the air and was not

2:03touching a player with zero seconds remaining go watch any replay with the seconds there zero seconds remaining once the clock hit zero the ball if the ball is still in the air that should be the last play of the game it's not that hard that the rules of football if we're gonna be honest it looks like the game was absolutely rigged which is embarrassing the big 10 even had to rig it rig it Michigan had absolutely no business being in the position where it needed a Hail Mary against Western freaking Michigan determined whether they started the season one and oh or not I mean that's embarrassing not quite as embarrassing as the fans Russian field after beating Western Michigan but embarrassing nonetheless and look at what I'll almost happen to this conference in one week weekend we'll get Zach thoughts on it on Sunday night at 9 p.m. Eastern time with me and him kind of going over the week but Rutgers loses that was terrible organ got get scared and almost loses like that's awful and the Michigan comes within one mythical second of losing to a Mac team at home and if Wisconsin goes and gets

3:09destroyed by Notre Dame this season will have come dangerously close to starting one of the worst possible ways for the big 10 which if Wisconsin loses like that's not the worst thing ever for your for but your top five teams have no business but two of your top five teams excuse me have no business almost losing to group of six teams field better football teams seriously do not complain about perception I want to hear a single Michigan fan or organ fan complain about perception complain about rankings do not complain about SEC bias when you're out here putting yourself in a situation where Western Michigan has the ball a chance to win in the big house thank God we have Indiana who's risen to something legitimate in this conference thank goodness we have USC who's investing heavily and actually trying to become a national level program again will they get there will they not who knows what they're trying that's what they're trying to do because this conference cannot go back to what it was before we're a high state carries almost all the national credibility and

4:10everybody else is just hopping along for the ride and eventually somebody joins them when something happens right for their team Michigan is supposed to be one of those programs and Saturday they nearly dropped the rope quite frankly they should have dropped it and I know I know Michigan fans are gonna fight me and say you know this that and the other and that's fine whatever I don't care I don't even care in this video it's 12 o'clock a night I don't care I'm giving my live reaction to this almost live but anyway so the final score cannot erase the much bigger question here because the most alarming part of sudden Saturday was not simply that Michigan almost lost it was why Michigan almost lost and it takes us directly to none other than Bryce Underwood the number one overall recruit five star man who was making the most money in college football may not the most but make it a ton of money underwood finished 12 of 22 for 170 yards one touchdown and one interception he also ran nine times for 47 yards and a touchdown and had the terrible fumble in the fourth quarter that almost lost in the game quite frankly probably should have lost them the game if

5:13you just look at those numbers you can talk yourself into saying he was a bit uneven but a survivable performance except for the fumble right Michigan turn the ball over three times as a team and most importantly the offense when completely dormant for enormous stretch for an enormous stretch of this game so much you know for Jason Beck's QB coaching and everything else he has a five-star quarterback we've seen his arm we've seen his athleticism there is talent there we've seen the place where you immediately understand why everyone was excited about him and then the question coming into year two was whether the flashes were going to turn into consistent quarterback play could he become more decisive could he make the easy plays more often could Michigan build an offense that stayed on schedule and fed and sped it instead of depending on on Bryce creating something special and after one game I do not think Michigan got the answer I wanted I don't think anybody that wants this conference to be good got the answer that they wanted they into was Michigan set

6:16for under their win total of eight and a half at minus 355 minus that it's double what it was to begin the season and after Michigan came that close to losing to Western Michigan that price feels like the market doubling down on the concern because look at look at the schedule for Michigan they have coming up they got Oklahoma next week you're gonna you're gonna have to survive every single week are you gonna try to survive every week by scoring 13 points and one of those touchdowns being rather unlucky right or rather lucky you're right you're not going to be bailed out every week by a defense that does not allow touchdown you're you're not going to get a hail Mary every time your offense disappears for most of the night and you're definitely not gonna get one mythical second from the big 10 rest to save you every night and this is where the advanced numbers become really important to because they make it harder to blame everything around they they make it harder not to blame everything around Bryce right Michigan's Russian success rate was 54% their sac adjusted Russian average was 4.5 per carry on first down Michigan average 6.1 yards per

7:22play in fact their leverage rate was 67% essentially that means Michigan was not consistently what was consistently putting Bryce underwood into opportunities where he didn't have to pass they were not consistently putting him in what we would call passing downs that's that that that was not an offensive line getting destroyed every snap Michigan allowed just one sac for two yards the run game was actually creating successful plays they were they were setting underwood up for success and yet Michigan overall success rate was only 38% that's that jumps out to me right because if you're rushing to attack a succeeding on more than half of its opportunities but the offense is down into the 30s of the success rate the passing game is consistently not doing enough and not just doing it not enough but consistently looking bad that does not mean every incompletion was Bryce underwood's fault that does not mean that every route was good it does not mean every play called made sense but it

8:22does mean I cannot come out of this game and say well Bryce had no chance the supporting the supporting structure structure was not perfect all right nobody saying it was perfect but it was good enough that Michigan should have generated more than 13 points against Western Michigan really I actually seven points but you know they got the gift there at the end and there's another advanced stat that I think tells the story you even better you see Michigan produced eight big plays for 165 yards they finished for 276 total yards that means almost 60% of Michigan's offense came from eight explosive plays think about that two of those were in the final drive of the game think about that Michigan could hit you with a with a chunk play Bryce could show off his arm or whatever else JJ Buchanan could make something happen but could they move the football consistently that's where they think fell apart for them only 25%

9:23of Michigan's plays came in Western Michigan's territory Michigan went three of ten on third down they went one of four on third and short not even like third and nine one and four on third and short after Michigan scored on its opening possession the next eight drives went punt punt punt punt interception punt punt fumble then 35 seconds left Michigan finally gets the football back because of a botched nap by Western Michigan and goes 75 yards for a miracle you know miracle catch by JJ Buchanan and then a miracle second chance for a Hail Mary by JJ Buchanan again this is why he keep coming back to one word with Bryce Winterwood consistency and he wasn't even consistent in this game you didn't win you don't win this game without JJ Buchanan making the crazy catch over the middle and pulling down the Hail Mary you could not blindly evaluate his Bryce Winterwood's night by reading stats from the final 35 seconds and saying

10:26oh I'm Michigan needed the Mary you know that's pretty good no Michigan needed that miracle because the offense had done almost nothing for basically the entire game and again that's on Bryce Winterwood because he was set up well for success and that's where I land on the Bryce Winterwood conversation I think Michigan has a real Bryce Winterwood problem right now it is very very real but the problem is that Bryce Winterwood's athleticism that is almost the opposite of the problem the talent the athleticism that's what that's what makes it frustrating because Michigan's entire season is built around this idea that Bryce's talent is going to become dependable production those are not the same thing if the offense goes missing for eight straight possessions if you're still giving the other team extra possessions with turnovers and you cannot consistently complement an efficient running game eventually one of those close games is going to go the other way and I'm not trying to say that like the running game was perfect and everything else was was on point awesome obviously the offense struggled in other ways but you you have to know the important distinction here

11:30I'm not saying Bryce Underwood did not improve at all right one game doesn't doesn't prove that he didn't improve at all but it but it should show up versus the Mac I'm not component you should have the improvement show up in some ways I'm not saying Michigan didn't didn't do not show us enough improvement in areas that mattered most seriously my bar for Underwood right now is so low it is so low can he get Michigan's offense to a success rate and at least the 40s that's where I'm at can you get a 41% success rate can you get can you get more than 25% of your snaps in the opponent's territory can you convert third and short better than than one in four against a Mac team can they go multiple quarters without turning the football over because there's no reason those should not happen against Western Michigan it's not even the coach who was on the phone messaging the what it wasn't even with the coach who was on the phone messaging the women on Instagram again at halftime this is with a whole

12:33new coaching staff with with these same problems showing up again no one should be calling Western this Western Michigan game of fluke right now this is who Bryce under what is because Michigan's defense gave him every opportunity to survive on Saturday Western Michigan never scored a touchdown Michigan only needed 13 points to win and unfortunately for them that's not going to be the requirement every week there will be games where Michigan needs 24 27 31 and there will be games when when where the other quarterback is actually good and he's gonna punish you if you turn it over that's why this is bigger than just one ugly Saturday Michigan is one of the programs the big ten needs to matter nationally they are a blue blood you need them to matter nationally thank you like I said Indiana has risen USC is investing organ trying to remain at the top but I'm not super confident in them after the boys you state game well how

13:34state so is it a high state but Michigan is getting left behind and if Bryce underwood does not take the year to leap and take it now Michigan does not just have a quarterback problem the big ten loses one of the teams that was supposed to give Ohio State some company near the top now maybe you got Penn State who goes up maybe you got Iowa who goes up they played really well today maybe maybe that's what happens but still they're not a blue blood like Michigan they don't get the benefit of the doubt Michigan got a gift from saving them on the final play and until Bryce proves it Michigan's underwood problem is very very real but I want to know from you what would convince you that Bryce has actually made the year to leap if you return over is better third down offense more sustainable drives or do you do you think I'm overreacting here all together I might be it's it's like midnight around here I don't think it's midnight yet but I might be overreacting here to

14:35one terrible game I don't think I am but maybe I am let me know in the comments subscribe to the big ten huddle for more big ten basketball football analysis yada yada yada I'm going to bed good night if you liked the show please take a moment to rate review and subscribe it really does help the show to grow thank you for listening