Kicking Off the NFL Season with Kevin Cole

0:00On this week's Bet the Process Podcast we have on Kevin Cole to talk a little NFL. I love Rufus gives us some horror stories of betting in college football and actually gives a bet the process here. He's one to know from a post post pass. I'm zero and zero because I did not give a heater last week. This podcast brought to you by Novig. If you want to go to the best sports prediction market in the world, it's Novig. They specialize in sports. That's what makes them great. Go to Novig.com and enter the promo code BTP and you will get a bonus. So with that, let's start the process.

1:00Welcome to another episode of the Bet the Process Podcast. This is going to be a past posting episode because Rufus did tell me last week off the air that his Rufus heater pick would have been Colorado and they not only won they won outright as a 7.7.5 point underdog. So I'm assuming you made bank on that. We did pretty well there. Yeah. We lost a ton on Rutgers getting upset by UMass. Do you have the anti-money line? We had the money line on Rutgers. What was that? They were 28.7. They were like 29 point favorites. We had them in 97 cents and if you think about it, there was also, it's not like there was a ton of change between seasons for each of these teams. They both returned to the same head coaches. UMass had the head coach in when I went 12 last year. They both had the same

2:05quarterbacks. It's not like UMass decided to just blow it all up and bring in a bunch of new administration. So it really kind of was a true shocker that they were up like UMass is up 23 points in the third quarter. I don't know if you saw this on Twitter, but Rutgers had planned fireworks for after the game and they still let set off the fireworks display. That had to be so sad. You just lost to a team in one, Owen 12 last year and hasn't won more than three games in like a decade. I went to the 18-1 Super Bowl for the Patriots. I think I've probably told the story before because it's so, but we had, you know, gone tickets for the team and we had tickets to the post-game celebration and they still had the the party and it was like Alicia Keys and Earth Wind and Fire and like me and my buddy were just sitting there like this is the most depressing thing we've ever been to in our lives. Literally like it was like in a hotel ball room it just felt so depressing.

3:08You know, when when you lose, you got to still show up for the parties for the fireworks. How was your college? How was your week one college? It was very good, but a new and approved we have a new rating system name now. I've decided after rename this the new rating system and what's it called? It's called cadet. Oh, sounds certain. Like the army like well, army are technically the black knights, but give us one insight from that from that rating system. I know you're very protective right now of everything you're doing. We have player ratings that it feed into it and we have coaching ratings as well. So digs would be very proud of you that you actually have player ratings in there and coaching ratings and coaching ratings. Which is more, what's that? Well, I mean, in college football, I mean separating, I mean coaching ratings aside

4:09from the effect, the recruiting part. Like is you basically can break down a coach into sort of the GM part, like the recruiting aspect, even though now these programs have GMs, but like, you know, it's the coach is largely who brings in the talent. There's the GM there's the GM aspect, like they're bringing good players and then molding them and player development and good coaches really do it a lot in terms of player development. Can I ask you about a very specific game? You may. What do you make that Michigan Oklahoma game? Because that was going to be my heater pick. That game has a huge, I'm assuming you like Michigan, right? I do like Michigan and it's something I've already, I'm able to say this because we already are getting a position down on it. We, you know, so what did you get get down at six? Well, it's this is all prediction market stuff, but let's see, I'll pull it up. Oh, so you're on the money line? No, I mean, yes, but also others. So we have at the moment, let me pull up my little exposure tracker thing here, which will tell me

5:14exactly how much we stand to win or lose. At the moment now, we have, we're still early, early there, but, but our, we have 60,000 rest, our best cases, 75,000 worst cases minus 60,000. It's mostly spread, but some money line as well. And this spread is what five and a half or six? Five and a half. Done it. But we're loved that. Well, because that game, it had like a Michigan was favored go before last week, right? I don't know. I hadn't seen the look ahead line, but I think, I think it's a huge swing. This is one of the guys that works in my office as a huge Michigan fan. And he was, he was laughing at how, how, you know, how much that had swung. We've created 73,000 of the 171,000 contracts traded at five and a half. Do you, do you think that there is some reason, you know, obviously like small sample size and complete overreaction.

6:16But this idea that we should be bearish on the willing ham error in, in, in, winning him, winning him. Sorry, not Tyrone. Willing him is a very different guy. Witting ham error in Michigan because the makeup of the players he's going to get are so different than what he got at Utah. Where if Utah is almost like a sec, it's like a, it's like a, they're like a military academy, military academy, asterisk, right? And that, that, that, the spiel that he did is obviously, I mean, obviously he's a great coach. I don't want to shoot on him and whatnot. But like, is it just not going to work there? I don't mean like look at other coaches that, um, that went from academies. Like, the Navy coach for a long time can, what's his face? Um, that's a, he's a whining guy. It's a, it's a, it's a longer than last name. I keep talking, talk whatever. Yeah. Yeah. Talk. He's, he's what's indiego state. But you had, you had Paul Johnson go from Navy to Georgia Tech and have success,

7:16but he instituted that option offense there. Um, uh, I'm not exactly like a really smart engineer. So the question is, are you saying like, are you asking in terms of a schematic perspective? Or you, or terms of like player development and relating to players, etc. It's now, not talking more about player development and relating to that all white and some Owen guys. Well, again, like you made, so anytime you make a prediction at some level, right? I know you didn't really make a prediction, but the, the, the, the, the theory was, you know, you got a situation where you toss like a borderline service academy. And clearly you've been doing a lot of work on the impact of coaching. You know, how do you think about someone like that that had a ton of success going to a completely different environment? And you know, you would argue that, you know, under the last administration, probably things were not being run very buttoned up. Um, you know, given, yes, given what, how, how things went, I mean, I don't want to overstate,

8:17I mean, like, it, you know, whatever people's lives or people's lives, it's not, it's not like, I'm not here to be moral police or anything like that. But like that, that idea, that idea, police. Okay. Yes. I'm not the moral police. Nor do I play them on television. Um, well, anyway, moving. What's that way when you were playing the Blackjack dealer in the movie 21, you were pulley, like as a dealer, you are policing the table and you're not that you're the first in the line of defense, but now we're the buck stops. Okay. Last question for you. I was going to, I think you need to get your annual physical. I think you made a very good point about how does coaching it one, a certain particular program chain, how does it differ if you go to another program? And we see this all the time with coaches like, I mean, look at Signetti. He's at JMU. He doesn't have the same caliber of players. And you did, you know, although he did bring a lot of guys from JMU and India and you sort of see that most of the top coaches end up starting

9:18at smaller programs and working their way up. I mean, you saw it with like the savings of the world. And so I, I do think that the, well, you bring up about the sort of roster composition and just the sort of culture being different is the interesting part though. And I don't know how to handle that exactly. Well, here's, here's why I would say like, you know, let's say that we, this would be a classic Jeff and Rufus conversation. You would tell me, end of last year, like, hey, this, this is off season, I think I'm going to do a lot of work on trying to figure out the value of coaches. And I would have said to you, save your time, because there's so many aspects to it. It seems really hard to model. And really hard to like, it is hard to model really hard to control. Like in the, again, this is a point you brought up, right, which is around service academies and whatnot. Like what made Whittingham a great coach at Utah may not be transferable to be a great

10:26coach at Michigan, right? Whereas you would say the same thing to some degree with Signeti. Now the issue with Signeti is he, it seems like found, you know, his new cheat code, right? Which is to get really elite talent that's a little bit old or not really elite talent, but talent that is good enough, that is older, that is less valued by some of the other people on the market. Which is why I think his cheat code is player development. He makes players better. Sure, but he also, he also needs some sort of players to work with, right? Like you can't, and again, like the point I'm making is the difference between Indiana, winning the national championship and JMU being like a really fun story that maybe makes the playoffs, right? Like he probably could not, you know, and again, like could he go to JMU now with an NFL budget? I mean, probably not. Like he still probably couldn't win the national championship. Oh, so my point is, my point is when he went from JMU to Indiana, he was able to get better talent,

11:30and he did the same thing that he did at JMU, which is make that talent better, get the most out of them, and it actually translated. Yeah, I mean, I'm not disagreeing with you. I think it's an interesting question though. Okay, last question. Those are just good because they get really good talent. Like, I mean, I don't think that makes you a good coach. That makes you a good recruiter and a good basically GM, but that's a huge part of the job. Who's that? Um, I was going to, let's, I mean, Mark Rift back in the day at Georgia was like the prime example of a guy, I don't think was a very good coach at all, but he just got a lot of talent. I mean, Kirby smart is a good, is a good coach. He does make guys better, but primarily the reason he's a good coach is he gets really good talent. But that one's hard to control for. I would say like the difference because we've, we've had this conversation and like Kirby Smartfits and like number three, you know, often and like he's top five in any of these coaching conversations. Yeah, but

12:32but if you, if it was, he takes this roster and what does he do with it? He wouldn't be anywhere close to the top in my opinion. Okay. I think it, I mean, I, this is, I, without looking at the numbers, but I do think there is like we can see how good players, well, we don't know how good there, but we can estimate how good we anticipate them being based off of recruiting and stuff like that. So I mean, you need to sample, but like some guys are just going to be better, like regardless of coaching, they're just better players. They were undervalued, but then, but with enough of a sample size, I mean, I'm sure you know, it's clear that Nick Savin made players better. He was very processed driven and he got the most out of his players and he wasn't great at analytics at all. He made some optimal decisions, but being able to get, to get the most out of your, the talent you have is, is I think more important than making the correct decisions to go for it, on fourth step. And I think that's why you have a bunch of coaches across ranks that make dumb,

13:38that make what to us seem like very obvious mistakes. Yeah. But we don't, yeah, but we don't see the, the stuff they're good at is in stuff that's is directly observable. Well, so like in the college ranks, for whatever reason, in the college ranks, I feel a lot that there's a lot more even to this, the head coaching thing and the, then, then there is an NFL like in the NFL like the, the college and stuff bothers me more than it would in the NFL and the college. I think I think the NFL player development is less in scheme matters more, relatively speaking. And in college, it's, I mean, it's not that scheme doesn't matter, but better players generally win and you don't have to have the best scheme to win. It's less of, I was going to make a war analogy here, but it's, it's more, you're, you're fighting about all this appeared numbers and saying what is where you put it down that way versus like, you know, Hannibal against the Romans or

14:41something. Yeah. Okay. Last question for you. What is your, what is your NFL week one going to look like? What do you, what do you, will you bet some, will you bet any like, uh, derivative? We have, we have a ton of action. Yeah, that we're betting. I mean, we, we already have done, um, let me pull this up across. You were just going to kind of watch, no? Well, I didn't say that. I just said that I'm right now more preoccupied with get everything running smoothly, but we have, we have two traders that started this week. They're both phenomenal. It's been actually one of them starts next week, but do you have it, do you have an NFL, do you have anything in the NFL that we can give it listeners? I'll put it, we have, we have so far, across exchanges and we're still fairly early here, um, close to a million contracts bet on today's game alone. What is your position going to end up looking like? Um, heavy towards Patriots

15:42Interesting. Like that. But it's, it's tough. One thing it's tough is on the risk management side, not necessarily like, especially if you're seeding across a bunch of different markets, a bunch of different strike prices, not knowing exactly where the fills are going to come in and sort of risk management there. Like, you know, we don't want to have any one outcome, um, like completely destroy us and right now we don't, but I mean, we've, this is a thing with college football too. It's almost like, how do you, how do you sort of gauge that? It's not like normal betting where I'm going to say, okay, our max size here is 300,000. Like, we could have a, I mean, the Notre Dame game last week, we had a scenario where if Notre Dame won by exactly 21, we lose $380,000. You know, they won by more than, um, by 22 or more, I mean, it varied by, by number, but we ended up like, I think losing 100,000 there. Um, we were, but like, we just had

16:48a, like, just based on the way it traded, we got filled a lot on plus 20 and a half Wisconsin, and minus 21 and a half Notre Dame, you know, and there's other times where we have a situation where we really want one number. But how much would you have lost? I can tell the story on Coin Heiser on Friday, three 70 something, reach 170,000. Okay. Well, we lost, we lost 500,000 on the UMass game. Well, we did those numbers make you sound cool. We actually, we actually clawed back to a, to a good week. We had LSU was huge for us because we had a big opinion on LSU and they ended up, uh, they ended up, yeah. And, and just the way it was a prime time game in the way it traded, like the more they outperformed the better we did. So, okay. I want to let you get to your, let me, let me, what I was trying to say, I can't keep going forever. It's hard to think about that risk management because it's like, do you, is it, it's not just your max exposure,

17:49and you can run it through Kelly and stuff. But, and I can afterwards look and Kelly can, like Kelly criteria and would say, you know, you're not overbending, but it's planning ahead for that because I don't know where the fills are going to come in exactly. So, it's like almost up, it, we need to build a system that sort of updates in real time, or at least every so often and says, hey, this is, we're getting close to our, to being overexposed on this game. And it could be because we have too much it, you know, it might just be a win or lose 300,000 situation, or it could be like very sort of tiered where like there's a really, there's one really bad outcome that we need to sort of temper our exposure on. So, yeah, it's, it's a fun little challenge. Makes sense. Okay, we're going to welcome in Kevin Cole to the Bet the Process Podcast, and we'll talk to you guys all again next week. We now welcome in one of our favorite guests to

18:49the Bet the Process Podcast. It is that time of the year. It is NFL football season. I think it's starting today. It's starting day, starting day. Yeah. I mean, it's Wednesday. There's no way it's starting on a Wednesday, right? When we go over, start the season on a Wednesday. Eventually, the NFL will take over the entire weekly calendar. It is very funny, but like, it kind of makes way too much sense, right? Then they can sell more shit. Uh, and so what, what, what, tell me what the biggest thing right now that you're looking forward to about this NFL season? What's like the one thing you're like, God, I want to see what happens here or I'm excited to see this. What is it? Um, I mean, to start off at the top, I guess, the, with, with the Rams now that we have all of these player additions, uh, or coming back from retirement, like we're going to get a good example of how much that does matter. I mean, I've heard conflicting opinions, especially when it came to Miles Garrett, that the trade there that it didn't really move the needle that much

19:53on some of their odds for the Super Bowl and things like that. But, you know, those who love to, to hype up, uh, the non quarterback positional players, we're talking about adding two, I guess, week two for, for Aaron Donald, but for adding two to the defensive line. I mean, I want to see, are we going to get this huge jump or the Rams really going to be this, this super power team that, that, that, that people think they're going to be, I'm interested to see it. Um, the, the thought is that the difference between him and Jared versus wasn't that big or what, like the impact that they would have on the field was not that big. But then they've thrown an old Aaron Donald and that's going to change things that much. I mean, they did pick up a bunch of like debacks, right? That kind of like, was an area that they were kind of weakened. My, my right on that, I'm just spewing some shit. So yeah, yeah. I mean, I think they were generally seen as being a strong team. I mean, at least my numbers had them being fairly close, if not, uh, by some metrics above the, the sea hawks until late, until the very end of last year. So you're adding that

20:53to it. I mean, I'm, I'm also kind of interested in the, the age curve things with, with players now. I mean, I think it's interesting when you trade for a player like Miles Garrett, who is turning 31 in December. So during the NFL season, presumably they're going on to the playoffs. He'll be 31 years old. Like, if you think about that in terms of how many years of prime play that you're getting from these guys, when you trade for someone when they're 31 versus 25, if you're talking about getting, you know, less than 50% of their prime too. So that, that's also the interesting thing for me is, are these guys really as lasting as long as they, they seem to be with, with improvements to, you know, the physio to the dieting to everything else. And I think that'll be an interesting experiment too. Do you have any take on this, uh, difference in acclimation that the Niners did versus the Rams? Um, I mean, I only know the earlier you get there, the better was the, was when it came to

21:54altitude, but I don't, I'm not, I'm not quite sure about the, the time zone. Well, I mean, it's, they're really low, right? It's down under. So they're probably lower altitude. Yeah. Yeah. I guess you could say that. Um, I don't know. Earlier is always better. But then again, what does that mean? I mean, I'm talking about more like Mexico City. I think wasn't there like also a dichotomy last year of, of who showed up earlier to, to adjust there? I don't even remember which team it was or whether the results played out in that way at all. Um, but, you know, I say that the more, the earlier you get there, the better. But in this case, wait, hold on. In this case, like the game, the Rams are going to get there just a day before, right? And right, but the game is it 10 30 local time, which is like, which is basically for a West Coast team that's 5 30, um, local for them. So it's like, I kind of see their viewpoint of like why completely destroy our body clocks? Because then you have to go back after, right? So you do, like, and for, for something

22:56that is like, you know, they're, they're going to be flying in comfort. I, I hope, hopefully, I don't know if you think they got economy plus. I don't know. They do. They got, they supposedly, they got something so they can fully, they can fully lay out. They can fully lay out. They can fully lay out beds for, for, for everybody. Yeah. Hopefully some nice noise, some noise, noise canceling your phones and some white noise machines in there. My seven year old woke up in the middle of the night and turned to me and said, I think all planes should have beds that you can lay down in. And he said, especially for the red eyes. And I was like, oh, wow, smart. Believe it or not. Well, not all planes, but the big ones too. But like, I just, uh, such, that was such a one percent or comment, by the way, right there for Rufus. This really showing his true colors. Okay. I want to give back to this. Like what, I don't understand. Well, the analogy is in Mexico City, right? The analogy is the Europe. I'm saying the analogy is the Europe game, right? That's the analogy. That's, it's the, it's the, it's the body, body shift, clock shift. Right. But my point is if this isn't, I think I

24:04agree with you, Rufus is the point. The Rams can, right. The Rams can keep their body clock on L.A. time and be, you know, and it's not, I don't see it as a disadvantage because it's a more normal start time. And then iters are going to have to like, I mean, uh, shift there and then shift back like that's, I think that's so tough. Well, what about, remember, there used to be the West Coast team traveling to the East Coast for their earlier start effect. I don't even know if that's the thing. What Rufus is saying is that because of when the, when it is local time, it's basically essentially the same time that they'd be playing. It was a third day game anyways. No, no, no, I get it. No, no, no, I'm saying the opposite. I'm saying for like the fact that the, um, it's like a 10 30 AM. Yeah. So, so, so, so, so you are adjusted to the local time. Yeah. And you're playing earlier. Does, is that, is that bad or does that even matter? Like, is, is there any particular reason for why an earlier game would be worse for a football player, football team,

25:07than playing in the afternoon or in the evening? But I was also thinking when it comes to adjusting. Yeah, yeah, it's not the altitude situation, but you could, I mean, maybe I don't know, unlike the people of the, you know, of the billionaire class like you guys, I'm not that used to sleeping on plane. So, I don't know how comfortable it is, but you would think if you're there and you're adjusted, you would get better sleep leading up into the game potentially. So, I guess that would be the difference. How much of it? Isn't it more about your sleep, like maybe not the night before, but the few days before that? I assume the night before it matters too, but yeah, yeah, but I think people think, oh, it's all just the night before and I think it's like, I don't know, I can ask, I can ask AI this. So, the reality is none of us knows what the fuck talking about. So, we're just talking about arouses, good times, good times. Glad we really enhanced the seven listeners with that. Okay, how about give me some other other storylines we should be following going in a week one. I mean, are we, you know, if we, if we were to, how about this a little bit of

26:14like a self, self, you know, self interest question about the Patriots? Where are we on the Patriots this year? They, is this going to be a complete case where everyone goes, oh, shit, it was just a schedule last year and Rebels been a master. Do you have optimistic, do you have some optimism for the Patriots? I mean, I have some optimism, but I do think there are elements of the classic you know, Super Bowl hangover, I guess would be the phenomenon that everyone point to in the past. Yeah, yeah. And it wasn't just the super part. Oh, I mean, it is a interesting phenomenon that's happened and it feels like those teams just seem to oftentimes get really bad luck with injuries though. And so, I mean, I think it's an interesting topic of discussion. Is it the fact that they I am so close and didn't get it and they're not as motivated to, I don't know, train like, I mean, it feels like there isn't, I mean, did they, they did play more games than other teams? Right? Yes,

27:16but like, you know, you don't see it for teams that lost in the NFC or NFC championship, although I haven't looked at that, but I mean, actually last year Washington lost in the NFC championship or two years ago and we're completely hot mess last year. I mean, I guess for for the Patriots, maybe there's like this unanswered question where I mean, the storyline was what do we know about this team because their schedule was so easy, right? And maybe the quarterback was a little bit more of an unknown having one one breakout season. So obviously they got trounced in the in the Super Bowl, even their run through the rest of the playoffs was not great, right? I mean, I'm just looking through here. I mean, the chargers were just a mess offensively in that game. CJ Stroud kind of imploded in the in the against the Texans. They weren't even facing Bo Nix in the championship. So they really didn't have any, you know, their offense wasn't great the entire playoff run. So I

28:17think that's also interesting is there's like there's actually a lot of chances for people to to pat themselves on the back about saying that they were they were not for real, but they still got all the way to the Super Bowl because of how the playoff run ended up manifesting. Yeah. Okay, we'll move on from them. Do you want do you want my opinion on the Patriots? Yes, I'd love it. Where do we have them? Where's the massy P body have them going into the season? He is, you know, barely low on them. I just I cranked out massy P body, like spend a lot of time on this yesterday and today. And now we have the massy P body ratings again. They we are pretty low. I know that we like the Patriots slightly more with our our, you know, my organization does, but people is a lot smarter than me to do this. But, you know, Jeff, I was waiting for you to make

29:19some comment about the fact that the fact that Drake May is too young. He's not old enough. He's not journeyman enough. He's only white though. So that's that's good. That that fits well into your model. Like historically, Rufus likes old and white. If they have red hair, even better, like Andy Dalton just plays really well into his his rating systems. No, I mean, I think, uh, Rufus, you said you wanted to comment on them. So let's let's have a comment on them. You know, you like them. You're your betting organization likes them a little better than market. It sounds like. So what is market exactly? I mean, like I make them massive. He already makes them a plus one point six, which is like, let me if I sort. So what do you, what do you get? That's lower than market. That's lower than market. But I don't know. Maybe maybe your range is not as more narrow just generally than it is. My range is fairly narrow. Like it tends to be that way early season, but I it looks it's it's more narrow than it was going into last season, where I had Baltimore, the top team at a plus six point four going into the season

30:25and Carolina last at minus six. Right now it's Seattle. It plus five point one is the top and the jets are minus five point one at the bottom. So it's certainly more condensed. Yeah, yeah, I mean, I also have more condensed this year, although I'm I'm a little bit I don't know. I was high on the Patriots last year. So that didn't quite work out in that playoff run. But so the according to the markets, at least the best numbers that I can find if you just try to crunch and you know, apply some linear algebra to all of the the the the the betting markets for the first couple of weeks. It looks like they're sixth two point plus two point nine between the chiefs and the Eagles. So I have them slightly higher than that, but in a similar range. Maybe I'm low on the Seahawks, even though they're number one, because if you if you take the difference between the the the Patriots and Seahawks ratings and add if you even just if you add like let's say two point three points for home field or you just too, I mean, you you're getting you're getting a line implied line of one and a half.

31:26No. And yeah, the other way. Oh wait, Seahawks are home. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Never mind. Never mind. I'm very long. Well, then the implied line is actually five or six, right? So theoretically you like this. You like Seattle on that game. Theoretically, but you're not going to get about it. No. Okay. Look, right now Jeff this week. I mean, in last week, I mean, in last week, have been kind of like complete chaos as we try to get everything up and running. With the first weeks of football and prediction markets and our automated system and all that. So I'm less concerned with what which team I actually like and more concerned with making sure everything's functioning properly. Can I ask a question? So we got the Raiders and Miami, right? And the narrative. So where do you have the rate? Where do you have Miami, Rufus? And where's convention on Miami that they're the second worst worst team? I mean, they got to be right at the bottom, right? Yeah. We have them as the fourth worst team, but they're like pretty close. It's like, yeah.

32:29Kevin, do you also dislike Miami? Yeah. I mean, I have them a little bit higher. I don't know. Something about Malik Willis is actually looking like there's some potential there. Maybe it's maybe I need to not decay his early. His early career performance as much as I have or put a little bit more into the weirdly low volume offense they were running there. So I have a little bit better. I guess it was a sixth worst, although they're pretty close to the ones around them. I mean, just anecdotally, when I put out my rage bait where I say they're my 100% correct power rankings. The most common thing that was being yelled at me was that Miami is 100% certain to be the worst team in the NFL. That's what a lot of people were saying. But of course, the markets are actually a little bit their second worst maybe to the cardinals. But I thought it was a little bit surprising that people seem to be the most certain of or at least in difference to my rankings, which are fairly close to the market generally.

33:35Yeah. Well, so the Miami thing, how much of the Miami thing do you think is fantasy related meaning like they got no fantasy players that anybody wants. Everyone just thinks they must suck. I think that's part of that. I think a bigger part of it. I guess they get it. No, people like aging, but they have so much dead money. I mean, they made for the kind of traded way talent and they have. Oh my gosh, how much dead money. It's insane. How much do I think that's the point? So this will be also be an interesting experiment if Malik Willis can play well because it goes into maybe a little bit of what we saw with Jaden Daniels a couple of years ago, like a rising tie lifts all boats. The assumption now is that they have no talent on the team. So it doesn't really matter how well Willis plays and they again, they have so much. 104 million in their clearing cap space for next year for all of these different guys. So that's I don't know that they have they have tons of dead caps. I think that's that that's the feeling is they just don't even have the level of talent possible to compete this year.

34:41Okay, give me the team that you like more like the biggest difference between a team you like in the market. Um, the Jaguars, I guess I mean, I personally I don't like them, but my numbers like them a bit more, which is a little bit surprising to me, but I guess offensively when I do these adjustments on quarterback efficiency, um, their offense looks a bit better than maybe what their performance was and their performance was pretty good last year. What I think is interesting about the Jaguars also maybe from a narrative standpoint is like if they had the season that they had last year, a couple of years ago with Trevor Lawrence and everything else, I think people would be very high on the team, but it's almost like they're dead to them and then, you know, they they they lost in a pretty close game against the bills in in the first round and then know what there's kind of no credit there, but maybe if they would have popped there, I don't know, it seems like Lawrence was written off maybe one, two seasons ago.

35:45So so even though they had finally had a good team performance, it didn't really matter for the perception. But there's like a lot of like Lawrence with under cone was like a pretty special quarterback, right, and even just like a special once he got like Parker Washington and the whole Kobe Myers and the whole deal like he had like a you know, like there's some optimism there like I'm I'm a believer in that. As someone that holds a lot of shares of Trevor Lawrence and fantasy right in the world of like between last podcast in this podcast, I've done like seven drafts so I went from knowing nothing about players to all of sudden being an expert in players, which is interesting. Who is who is who is the team that you guys like most what the difference between you and the market you think. Or even how do you feel about the jags broadly speaking like maybe maybe the jags are becoming the dark darling about the process for all the speaking, I don't think we love the jags, I mean, like massive he but he actually likes them but like, but I

36:50again, I like it's it's what Trevor Lawrence has demonstrated his whole career is not like I don't think he's that guy. Interesting look so much to so much of the jacks can we just boil it down and say so much of what you think about the jags is just what you think of Trevor Lawrence. I mean, I lost your real maybe maybe the problem is I've owned him in fantasy and so I'm like that's that my narrative is like I don't want to own that kind of fantasy again. It's very analytical of you. I think we're like I mean we are I'm looking at the simulations we ran and I mean we have them close to the average but a little bit better. But again, I am now not the NFL expert anymore Jeff so. When were you ever I was I was never but I'm not pretending to be one anymore. Okay, how about the team that you guys think is you know dumpster fire compared to the market. Don't dumpster fire that's a.

37:52It's just an illustration you don't they don't really have to be a dumpster fire. Well, this is what this is going to be I mean I'm I guess I'm low I'm somewhat low on the Eagles so. That was actually one that I don't I don't like the fact that that that that I have that. Because I remember going into last year I was a little bit low on the Eagles but it was more because of an expectation that there could be some defensive regression or instability there and their defense was actually still pretty good. It's just their offense. That's a. Fell apart so so I don't know so I'm the my numbers are at least are low on them but I don't know if I quite agree with that meaning I have them kind of in the middle of the pack versus the market has them on the outside of made the top 10. Rufus who do you guys have a problem low on the bears. I mean I think the yeah below the bear is a great coach and all that and I think look I have trouble I know I have trouble picking picking out up especially with one.

38:58One season. The guys clearly an offensive mastermind but. They had. You know I just don't see how you can put them I mean I don't know what the market is exactly but but they are not in a lead. Team at least as of right now in terms of my expectation I do think that I would say they're a team. Well I'm actually I was going to say that there may be more uncertainty but there is a lot of continuity so maybe not as much uncertainty there. I think the question with them is like what you think about Caleb Williams I've heard lots of positive talk about him in the offseason there's even some you know maybe some long shot MVP type of conversation he has. He has better odds to win the MVP than than Trevor Lawrence did and then but then when I'm looking at at at least the numbers that I do for adjusted EPA for the last two years he came in you know he was in the in the high 20s his ranking as a rookie and then last year he was about middle of the NFL so like typically you'd expect you need like you you want a bigger bump than that in year two.

40:14So to really say hey this is going to be this is going to be the guy so it seems to me that that least perception wise maybe because they had a good run at the end of the year and they won some close games down down the stretch and in the playoffs that that people are looking at them as a as an up and coming team but I guess my numbers for him at least are not that great just because you don't normally see the anymore the year three break out I mean we saw it with Josh Allen but he's kind of. A little bit of an anomaly because you finally learned how to complete passes as this third year in the NFL which is how do we've seen that from other quarterbacks in the past. I mean you did you did have a. I coaching. Like a new coach come in Ben Johnson which like like he's I mean it was a different scheme and I'm trying to remember who is the OC in his first year.

41:14When Ben Johnson's first year no no and Caleb Williams first year. Niggie right. Was it no it wasn't naggy. I thought it was wasn't it like they have that dude what's his name that was the coach that wasn't very good and didn't he have naggy is as I know it was um. Shane Shane Waldron was anyone's. Okay well you had Matt Everflus is the head coach and Shane Waldron was fired after non games Thomas Brown took over then Chris BD I mean so you had kind of a hot mess there and then you get Ben Johnson who made Jared golf look very very good after he was booted out of LA. So I think you I think seeing a big upgrade like that is kind of expected and I mean the big thing was his sac rate was just like Caleb Williams is sac rate was so so bad. And that is a quarter back stat and and he both had his sac rate dropped from like historically bad to better than average and his his time to pass actually increased like so I mean both of those in like that seems like a real improvement.

42:28His his pressure to sac ratio got cut in half so coaching I don't know comfort. But he still wasn't a top quarterback I mean I could see why his MVP odds are higher than Trevor Lawrence is though because we kind of have a much larger sample of Trevor Lawrence and Trevor Lawrence I don't think he's shown the upside. Well okay I mean I see you're you're a coaching you're a coaching believe I mean I'm a huge believer in coaching I think like coach it's important versus what's important versus what is predictable right I guess that's my that's my thing with coach. It's like obviously it's important but how much do we know or how much can we attribute to coaching I mean it just maybe I get annoyed by by watching like the amateur film guys or the amateur like O C's that'll say well obviously the team should be doing X but they're doing why and I'm thinking to myself how could this guy who's been eat you know eat sleep breathe football all their life not understand

43:35who has a lot more information than all of us to not understand how to do how to keep getting jobs in Matt naggy's a perfect example how do these guys keep getting jobs if they're if they're idiots right like is Andy Reed not. I gave you a job I gave naggy a job today. I didn't have. Okay they're they're they're they're journeyman white men. That's it they're just they're a good hang maybe there's a good hang. Probably good hang they know all the jargon I mean you don't we don't really need to have I mean look at how we don't really need to have to are it for down in decision making right. Right we don't need to litigate like why these people keep getting hired because we know the answer to that it happens in sports it happens in life like there are just this this idea that that you know it's a combination probably of good hang slash relationships slash like don't get fired for hiring you know for hiring IBM or buying IBM back in the day so. Okay I'm gonna change subjects you're you're increasingly importance of defense in your model this year yeah.

44:39Wait is that tell tell me why I mean it's I thought we were like offices more stable more important what's changed. Well I mean it's still more stable and more important but less relatively important at least from what I've seen the last few years I mean it probably has something to do with the same phenomenon that's driving. The the the range of team strength being a bit more narrow than what we've seen in the past because the differentials on defense are smaller than the differentials on offense typically. So I think that's that's just what we've seen and if you're talking about if you want to go into you know a diagnosis of maybe what's gone on I guess quarter back play while the the elite have still been. Pretty good it maybe there's a little bit less stability there I don't know I tried to look at it it's hard when you're you have smaller samples of quarterbacks to really pinpoint why that is but.

45:40I guess if you finish a season where you have you know obviously Matt Stafford's had some some really good years but he hasn't necessarily been. You know I don't think he had a sink I don't think he had any like you know all pro. For almost those almost entire career I'm sure you had a proble for almost the entire career but he's done but he's kind of popped up recently and then you have Sam Darnell who's popped us when you have those kind of being the best teams in NFL you're it's not quite as locked step with quarterbacks where. A couple years ago a few years ago you would have said okay we're going to have the chiefs the Ravens the bangles and the bills all in the AFC playoffs fighting it out now it's a little just a little bit of a different situation. Rufus do you have a counter point do we have like we had an era of a bunch of sort of I don't know how many you'd say like but a handful of really elite quarterbacks that that were that for a decade or more right you had the drew breezes Rufus for your obviously Brady and Rogers Manning and it feels like you don't like you have much more parity at the quarterback position which is which I think makes it makes defense more important in a way by making offense less important just because there's less variance at the at the biggest position that would just be my take.

46:55I mean we'll just think about let's just like let's just super super simple narrative so in the beginning of the year last year says like Seattle is going to the Super Bowl the first thing people say is no team with Sam Darnell is this quarterback is going to win the Super Bowl right that would be dismissed almost out of hand right so it's like it's interesting because it does seem like it's less of used to be able to say like I'll pick the best quarterback or maybe that was a narrative but definitely interesting. Okay your model of the Rams last year but the market eventually decided Seattle was better Seattle won the Super Bowl so clearly you were wrong but when when do you look at like the difference between the market and your model and think about doubling down versus like incorporating some of that or figure out what you're missing in your model. Well I guess I would never frame it as doubling down I think typically like I said I'd like to do these really evaluations in the off seasons that's what I've done a little bit this year although I saw the Rams is being as being better because of some off season improvements but maybe it's more narrow than it then it would have been if I hadn't made those adjustments so I mean what I like to do is just right.

48:19Around it when I'm putting out my power rankings and just talk about it and I think that's probably the case with a lot of modeling is just to say okay you don't want to you don't want to lose the ability to interpret the models results by trying to make lots and lots of smaller adjustments to fit it perfectly because then you might not even know what you're looking at in a way. How you how you how you came to it not that you would not that you would know anyway not that you would perfectly know because these are kind of black boxes all these all of these different models but at least if you if you have it if you know a little bit what the recipe is in broad terms then you can identify maybe why there are these differences that you're not expecting and then you can say okay reasonably is there is there a difference that the models not incorporating that probably has some actual predictive ability to it and that's not the right thing. And then think about it in that sort of way so that's generally what I do is I just write around it as opposed to trying to incorporate too much into it just because it's if it's not going to apply across a larger broad section of teams then it could end up just hurting the results in other ways that you're not anticipating.

49:37Okay, how about what team are you most you think that will all be most tempted to over react to in week one like this team is like you know that the media darling or the I mean it's kind of like the bears right or is it the like I feel like everyone's waiting to to anoint Caleb is like the new new and Ben Johnson is the guy. Yeah, let me see I mean there are playing the panthers but but maybe let me think of who else as I'm going through here. Sorry not quite not quite ready on on this one here yeah I mean I think the the bears would be a good one. I mean if we saw a reversal of the Super Bowl results in week one I think that that could be interesting me Sam Darnel's one of these guys were it because this happened remember the end of Minnesota is that he went from. I won't say MVP candidate but he went from being having extremely strong season with Minnesota flamed out and it was like they you know they sent him packing despite the fact that obviously they didn't know who they had coming in with in the draft with which you know the

50:52G.A. G. McCarthy so that you know people's opinions could flip a lot on that one I don't know Rufus do you have anyone let me let me look through this a little bit more that I'll keep back to you. I think the Super Bowl one's interesting because obviously you have a situation where that line's only three right and you would you would go into this and you would be like well they you know they beat the shit out of them last year Super Bowl hang like Super Bowl loser hanging over all this kind of stuff wise the line only three. So this just told us that he'd make the line closer to six so you know what obviously the Patriots are going to win I'm going to bet Patriots money line to the cows come home plus three because what I do I'm a contrarian Rufus you have any any ideas on narratives that you see happening like I mean the giants right we're not on the Seahawks though what's up we're not on the sea hot mass if you want to see us but we're not betting on the sea ox no I know I know you said you're not going to bet anything and we won. We are I mean the bears is a good one right if they if they blow out Carolina on the road that's a pretty big one there then being a three point favorite there seems like you know a little bit.

52:02It's got to be some value on on Carolina in my mind there just without any numbers and just throwing shit in the throwing shit on the sticking on the wall. Me Caroline wasn't horrible at the end of the year last year they arguably should have beat the Rams in the playoffs that would yeah but I mean they were a playoff team but they weren't a playoff team I mean how do you know that I just know I'm like Matt naggy I can't tell you why okay anything else on that I got I got another question asked if we unless someone has another has a well does anyone actually believe in cam word I was wondering whether or not against you know against the jets at home if they win will people actually be like I you know cam some people you know the films the film people seem to like flashes I'm hearing there were flashes last year my numbers don't see a lot of flashes but I guess maybe there's a shift in perception there just the Titans are not exactly a name brand team well

53:04Root Root's just wishes they were still starting Ryan Tannel because then he would like their numbers better because he's older white so I mean the Titans weren't the Titans kind of an interesting team at the end of last year they were definitely playing better right there was some narrative that they were they were playing better and I heard the coach yeah I don't know I mean regression like you have a situation where they're at home minus one and a half over the Jets Jets are supposed to be the worst team I kind of love the Titans is like a very early survivor pick right there just just go for no no one likes that idea just think they'll be out I mean a multiple entries it's fine okay NFC we're going to assume that the two teams you like are going to be Seattle and the Rams I don't want to put any words in your mouth but I'm assuming from what you're saying those would be the two teams you'd probably pick correct how about the aFC

54:05um I mean basically Buffalo I have at the top and then the Patriots next in kind of a tier with Kansas City and Baltimore I mean maybe I don't know people people really don't like the the chiefs now so the results for them week one are probably going to throw people in a lot of different directions depending upon how they look but it looks like the market's pretty high on on both on both the the Ravens and the chiefs despite the fact that maybe some some people are not they're not are not feeling there are chances anymore roof is who do you guys like in the aFC you're on mute I am on mute that's because I have a loud fan here um in the aFC we what do they like about you sorry it's a great question I mean it's funny if you look at like the massive people I did numbers you see that literally like the top on two three four five teams are all in the NFC kind of crazy I mean Buffalo Baltimore Jacksonville I mean it's kind of like it's Buffalo Baltimore Jacksonville Denver all within a half point of each other at the top basically and so while Jacksonville isn't that good it's just a

55:27little bit more than just we don't really see a ton of separation there what do you think about the Texans that is actually right there half point worse than Denver there so they're still within a half within a point of Buffalo okay okay yeah I mean I'm kind of like New England's only like one point two points worse than Buffalo is the best team so we we think the aFC is basically anybody's game there among that crowd and I get the end of there and then it's a draw my numbers are pretty high on the Texans I mean that that'll be a good one right against the bills and week one also so yeah I mean is that the aFC championship game preview gotta get some narratives going guys some super if CJ Stroud can cannot be not look not be not be not be horrible then yeah we'll see I mean what do we what are you guys your projections say on Stroud right he is like this ultimate polarizing figure because they probably go as he goes right the defense is going to be fairly consistent and isn't be good and so he's it's it's all going to be on him so if you can predict his his future then you can bring it their future I have him is the worst quarterback among he's the only below average quarterback in the top 13 teams

56:48okay there where they are in spite of him not because of him okay but as a rookie he was quite good he was well I mean so for his for his rookie numbers at least I didn't have him as being quite as good as his performance because I'd have to look back into it but I think yet extremely low interception rate whereas his you know I look at these charted interceptable passes I think they call them over at FTM where I get my charting stuff from so he maybe he got a little lucky when it came to to interceptions as a rookie and and some other things that that bolstered his numbers because I had him at least is his ranking by adjusted efficiency being about 17th as a rookie and then it fell into the 20s in a second year and then it improved a little bit again the next year but he's been slotted it was kind of right in that in that sort of range so I think maybe it was a little bit worse as a rookie than his than his numbers in his perception was interesting

57:55okay last last question on my part or maybe maybe one do you you have any any games that you like from a perspective in week one versus the spread of you I assume you've looked at these these types of things and since we're a betting podcast and you're an expert we got to ask you these questions I mean the game we were just talking about I mean I like the Texans I guess my my numbers are relatively high on the Texans and then relatively low versus the market so you combine those two things together and then you know you get you get the Texans where I guess it's not a pick the Texans are slight or slight favorites so they're underdogs now they're plus one at least where I'm looking plus one minus 105. Oh okay my guess is flipped there so so yeah I mean whatever it's floating around the you know around the middle there so that I guess the my numbers favor them is as long as they're as long you know with with the home field.

58:58Okay Roof you got anything else for Kevin can let him go I do not all right Kevin thank you so much for educating us and joining us and obviously we'll have you on again at some point because you're the best. We love that. All right take it easy fellas.