Kevin Rudd says Australia risks becoming a 'complacent country'

0:00Kevin Rudd, also former Prime Minister, former Australian ambassador to the United States and is now global president of the Asia Society. Mr Rudd addressed the National Press Club yesterday, warning that Australia risked becoming a second rate country without a quote, radical change in our national psychology. Kevin Rudd is my guest. This morning, Mr Rudd, welcome back to breakfast. Thanks for having me on the programme. Moving with the 25th anniversary of September 11th, what do you remember of that day? I remember actually watching television live that day and with my daughter as the footage and the coverage went to what had happened with the first tower and then watched live the aircraft colliding or crashing into the second tower. I think at that very moment, looking at it and looking at it carefully, you sensed in your guts not the world at that moment

1:04had changed and so at that. Listening to former Prime Minister John Howard a short time ago, he stands by the decision to become involved in the war in Iraq alongside our ally, the United States. So yesterday at the National Press Club, you said the war in Iraq had been a retrograde step but that you still don't see how Australia could have made a different decision. Why is that? No, I didn't say that at all about Australia, not being able to make a different decision back in 2003. I listened to the end of what John Howard has just said on your programme. We supported him as I still do support him in the decision in decisions in relation to Afghanistan, which came out of September 11th attacks. He got that right. What he got comprehensively wrong was Iraq. At the time, he didn't call for an independent, opposite national intelligence or opposite national assessments, full national assessment of the wisdom of going into that war. That's because he provided a pre-convict

2:06into the Bush administration that he was going to war before he actually took that decision to the Australian people. Furthermore, I mean, the intelligence, as we all know, was clear at the time the UN weapons inspectors had found no evidence of weapons of mass destruction. And furthermore, any further reflection or considered reflection by Mr. Howard at the time would have surely caused him to conclude that if you took out the Iraqi regime, you are therefore turning a predominantly sheer country into becoming a virtual colony of the Iranians. And the Iranian influence over Iraq has spiraled ever since. That ill-fated decision was taken. So therefore, we oppose the Iraq war then we oppose to the, we continue to impose that decision as of today. And I'm not quite sure where you got your information from about me saying he didn't have an alternative available to him in 2003. He did. And we argued for it at the time. You're listening to Radio National Breakfast. My guest is former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

3:10Turning to your speech yesterday, why in your view is Australia at risk of becoming second-rate in your view? My observation having lived down to the country for the last 10 years is that over time, what Donald Horn wants to describe as the lucky country, has over a very long period of time. Begun to become the complacent country. And I use the term complacent carefully. And that is the very hard decisions where is a nation, both sides of politics, all sides of politics need to take about securing our national security in an environment where it's becoming increasingly dangerous in our part of the world. We need to face also very difficult and hard-line economic decisions for the future through industry policy, and ensuring that we've got growth sectors for the future of the economy. And that on the real world challenges of artificial intelligence

4:14and the assaults, therefore, that will come from it in terms of people's personal lives, their employment opportunities, but also on the upside. The things we need to do to build an AI industry in Australia to protect ourselves against rogue AI agents in the future, these are the bigger questions which need to be bitter-knife. And all sides of politics in Australia need to do that. Incrementalism no longer works. And I believe what holds us back fundamentally is a national mindset which doesn't comprehend the level of urgency which these aggregating international external challenges now represent the country's future. Where does that mindset come from? Something deep, I think, in the Australian political culture and general culture, there's too much of the Shubi-Rite made attitudes still in this country. An attitude which says, near enough is good enough. As opposed to one which says, we have bearing down upon us, a set of national security

5:16challenges coming out of our region which are unprecedented in the post-war period, that this AI revolution sweeping the world is a fundamental game changer for Australia if we seize it with both hands. And let's not forget the overall and continuing challenge of climate change and extreme weather events which are washing over us and which may in fact become extreme in the near future to the point where we then counting the economic cost as others are around the world. It's a mindset problem and therefore part of the reason for my address, principal reason for my address, the National Press Club yesterday was to say we need to change our national psychology, grasp our future with both our hands, take big bold decisions, not be risk averse in particular through the ranks of the Australian public service. Let's talk about the Asia Pacific. You're also warned about the risk of a war over Taiwan. In your view, what would that mean for Australia?

6:20What the risks mean for Australia, if we look at them carefully in my own assessment, is that over the next several years as someone who's looked at this question for the better part of half a century, I think we now face an elevated possibility of a Chinese military action against Taiwan to take the island. I've elevated that to a one in three risk, not yet a probability but certainly an enhanced possibility. What does that mean for Australia? What it means for the United States and all its allies, including Australia, is the absolute importance of doubling down on deterrence because the key to maintaining stability across the Taiwan Straits in starting 49 has been to cause the Beijing leadership to understand that the risks of a military action against Taiwan far outweigh any gains or possibilities for them to be secured as a consequence of that action.

7:21So therefore it's a doubling down on deterrence in all of its forms, capabilities plus intent, which ultimately adds up to the deterrence equation by the United States. Just one more, what do I ask you about the current political climate domestically and particularly one nation? Your fellow Queenslander Paul Enhanced and has been surging in the polls as her party has. It mirrors the rise of some populist parties in other democracies. What do you think is the blueprint for mainstream parties to be able to defeat parties like one nation in the current climate? I think there are two answers to that question. One is to be very clear with the Australian people that one nation represents a party of political protest without offering a single coherent political or policy answer to the problems that they are protesting about. Well, if I look carefully, for example, or what Mrs Hanson has put on the table,

8:22I see none of those policies advancing in any way. Australia's basic cost-to-living challenges for working families across our country. Not only do I see what she has on the table as enhancing Australia's national security or long-term national economic development interests. And the politics of protest, as you know, are very easy. The policy business, the hard business of government, which is delivering real-world answers to real-world problems, is a different matter. The second line of approach is this. Underneath it all, the Australian people and those who are currently inclined to one nation are responding to the most basic cost-to-living pressures in their lives. The biggest subset of cost-to-living pressures in Australia and the other advanced democracies is housing affordability. Therefore, what I've observed in this country over decades now is an emerging market failure in the housing industry of Australia. As you look at the widening gap between median house prices on the one hand and median incomes on the other.

9:25Putting that out of the reach of working families and young people right across the country, this housing affordability problem can only be addressed through a radical strategy of boosting housing supply across this country. Mr. Rudd, thank you for joining me this morning. Good to be on the program.