Kenya downplays fuel shortage fears amid Iran war

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1:03here. They scale here. Not culture or business. Culture and business. Puerto Rico. It's not what's next. It's where. Visit investpr.org forward slash business. Hello there and welcome. I'm Kici Obona in Nairobi with Focus on Africa. In Kenya, customers have been reporting been turned away from some fuel stations due to an alleged shortage, despite the government's assurance of steady supply. But could African countries run out of fuel as conflict in the Middle East rage is on. It's not like a light switch, even if the conflict ends this Friday, it's going to take months to bring some of these oil fields back online in the Middle East. And British Nigerian DJ copy talks about balancing a career in entertainment and pursuing academic goals. You know, when people sort of highlight my

2:04background and my upbringing, I actually consider a massive privilege. Again, having the access to education in the UK is such a unique position to be in, and one I definitely grasped with both hands. It's Thursday, March 26. For many in Africa, the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran may have seemed like a distant phenomenon, but the effects are starting to hit home. For most countries, the concern is fuel shortage, and that's because a fifth of the world's oil supply passes through the street of homies, a waterway on the coast of Iran that shipping companies have been avoiding since the war started. But even before the escalation in the Persian Gulf, there had been a crisis on the Red Sea and another crucial ceiling between Europe, Asia and Africa. Attacks on commercial

3:08vessels by Yemeni's Houthi rebels had been disrupting global trade and forcing shipping companies to use longer routes. So let's talk more specifically about what this means for fuel supply to Africa. From Kenya to Egypt to South Africa, there's panic that stations could run dry in the coming days. In South Africa, farmers say the experience in delays in receiving diesel deliveries meant to keep large farms running. In Nairobi, Kenya's capital, customers have been reporting been turned away from some petrol stations, but the government says there's no need to panic.

4:17Oil marketing companies in anticipation of price movements. This conduct is commercially opportunistic and is in direct breach of licensing obligations. That was Kenya's cabinet secretary for Energy, or PO one day, speaking on Wednesday. While the government is urging calm, there are concerns that prices could rise significantly. Already, the price of crude oil has increased by 40% since U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran late February. Now to help us understand what the conflict in the Middle East means for Africa's fuel supply and prices, I turned to Ali Khan Satu, a geo-economic analyst. He began by explaining how the various African countries are exposed to the crisis. Countries that have oil obviously angola, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, and others who are going to do benefit from this considerably.

5:17So there are winners from this situation in the state of Hormuz, and then of course we have the oil importing countries who are at the bleeding edge of this problem. The oil importing countries typically have very little storage, so they tend to be importing once a month and any supply shock after four to five weeks will lead to rationing and of course much higher prices. So those sorts of countries are going to find it very, very tricky. And let's talk about Kenya. The Energy Cabinet sector in Kenya says I'm quoting now the supply chain is intact, stocks are adequate, and we maintain full oversight of the national petroleum position. Kenya has, I think, estimate typically about five weeks worth of supply in the system. So the moment you're unable to import, you know, you just have five weeks of supply. So clearly after five weeks, if the

6:17ships aren't coming in and Kenya's imports tend to come from Saudi Arabia and from the UAE, then you're going to have a very, very big problem. Maybe he's speaking about the situation a week or so ago, but I think in a couple of weeks it's going to be a very, very different situation for one that he's describing because essentially you're going to have a stock out and you're not going to have much supply available unless those ships come. And the only ships that can possibly come are from Saudi Arabia via the Yanbu refinery where there is loading into the red sea. How long that will continue if the hoodies enter the phrase, not clear to me, but Kenya obviously is unable to get supplies from the UAE at the moment. And the other problem is the crude blends coming out of the UAE are already trading at around $150, $160 a barrel, which is double the price of the Brent crude price or close to double. And therefore you're not only at risk of not getting

7:21any fuel, but you're also having to pay double what you were paying just a month or so ago. I find that very fascinating and confusing as well because there have been reports of people been turned away from fail stations or given a fraction of what they actually intended to buy. What does happen I have to admit is when these fuel companies realize that the price is going to jump, what they do sometimes is hoard that fuel to sell it into the next cycle when the government will have to readjust the price higher to reflect the market price. So you do have that situation sometimes unfold where you know fuel station will say hang on let's not sell right now because we'll get a considerably higher price in a couple of weeks time. So technically he's correct there might be fuel, but hardly any supply and what these fuel stations are doing are trying to play the system and get a better price in the next five week or four weeks cycle I just described. Right. What can governments do to avoid hoarding if it happened? Well the government only

8:25way they can avoid hoarding is to make sure there's sufficient fuel in the system. At the moment they can't give that guarantee to anybody because I don't think the countries who export to Kenya can give them that guarantee. It all depends on whether the state of whole moves opens and these governments are prepared to run that risk and pay the two million dollar ransom that Iran is demanding for safe passage. And explain to us now how does Kenya set fuel prices because we understand countries like Nigeria run a free market where independent marketers sell at whatever landing costs they get from the fuel and does government remove subsidies in 2023 for instance operating a free market. But in Kenya the case is different. Isn't this price control what is leading to the hoarding of fuel? That's a very interesting question. The two things to consider in response to your question the first thing is 60% or they're about so the price of fuel is government tax in Kenya. Hold on. Hold on. 60% of the price of fuel in Kenya goes to

9:34the government in taxes. Goes to government. Yeah. My goodness. Yeah. That's the first point to make to everybody. So this is also a place where the government can be clever and dynamic and reduce the tax take in order to try and hold the price in check to some degree. But we haven't seen dynamic policy making of that nature before but I would strongly urge them to consider reducing the amount of tax that taking in order to mitigate the transmission of the price through the system. We don't have a free market. Fuel is imported. So accusations the government's making that fuel retailers are hoarding. It is a tricky thing because their margins are so thin anyway. They would be far better off having a free market like they've introduced in Nigeria. Now Ali Khan before I let you go I have to ask you this the conflict in the Middle East is ongoing. The US has said it's going to review its decision after like five days of a temporary ceasefire on Iran's assets and supposed nuclear infrastructure in the country. But Iran has said

10:40it would end this war at its own time basically. And that's not telling what's to come and with the straight-of-home use closure and all the other issues with global supply chains. If this global issues continue and supply chains are hurtled what can African countries do to cushion the effects on the economies and their citizens especially low-income owners? Look it's not like a light switch even if the conflict ends this Friday it's going to take months to bring some of these oil fields back online in the Middle East. It takes up to five to six months to bring them back online in many cases. In the situation of gas for example in Qatar it's going to take them four to five years. So whatever happens between Iran and the US we're not looking at any quick fix that can be brought to the market. So the shortage is going to be there for a considerable

11:41period of time. Secondly I think anyone who's listening and believing President Trump at this point really needs to examine themselves because he said a lot of things which have just been market management tools. He's desperately trying to keep the price down. I'm not confident that there will be a resolution this weekend. I don't think Iranians are prepared to accept his terms. They know if they do in three months time the same thing will happen again. They want to get to a point when there is a permanent solution. So I have four cars that this situation will remain as it is least four to six weeks longer and for everything to normalize we're still talking about five to six months. The second party of question what can African governments do or firstly wake up? Secondly build storage space and start storing. I can't think of any African country which is an oil importer which has more than 30 days worth of fuel. That means we're going to come to a giant

12:43standstill very very soon. And then you're not even considering things like jet fuel, fertilizer, sulfur which the mines need helium which is needed for a lot of medical equipment. Oil touches every single point. Medicines, oil is in practically every single tablet. So it's a very very scary scenario. And the final thing I would say is why do we not have a pipeline from West Africa to East Africa? Why do we not have a pipeline from Angola to other parts of Africa that need it? Why do all our oil producers face external markets as opposed to the internal African market? I think that's another big thing that the African free trade agreement should be now really pushing. Many thanks to geoeconomic analyst Ali Khan Sachu. This is focus on Africa from the BBC World Service. Craving the coffee flavor you love but without the caffeine,

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14:49How does a young woman navigate a career in entertainment whilst pursuing higher education in one of the world's most prestigious institutions? Having that conversation with parents is never easy in our African households. Well, Nigeria's Florence or Tedola, known popularly as DJ copy, has successfully walked the fine line between entertainment and academia in Lagos and London. Her efforts were recognized in 2024 when she was appointed the first African ambassador of the King's Trust, a UK-based charity founded by King Charles. I have been speaking with the BBC Ziamese at Degokay, who recently sat down with DJ copy. Yeah, I'm sick. Tell us exactly who DJ copy is and what she's known for. Yeah, so she's Nigerian. She was born in Lagos and she moved to London when she was a teenager.

15:52She's primarily known for her music career. She's a DJ. She's performed at some really big festivals like Glastonbury. She's also an artist and a producer. She's releasing songs. But one of the things that I mean, she emphasized quite heavily on that, maybe not that many people know about her is her efforts in philanthropy. So she runs a foundation called the Copy Foundation. She's raised a lot of money for things like save the children to try to sort of help displaced children in Nigeria. She's also got an education fund that's set up with various of UK universities to specifically help African students who travel to the UK to pursue education. So she's into quite a few things. If I was to describe myself, I probably say that I am, well, I'm an international DJ, but I would say that I'm also an apologetically Nigerian. And I think that's what I love about our culture. We take a piece of us everywhere we go.

16:53Interesting sounds like she has her hands full. And now the African diaspora has made strides in various fields, especially in the UK and beyond most of whom are in medical, in STEM. How important is it to see such figures, especially for young Africans at home and abroad? And especially she's young and she's female? Yeah, I mean, I think it is important, especially for young people. You know, there's that saying, if you see it, you can be it. So I think that representation definitely plays a role, especially, I mean, with a copy, she is a young woman in a predominantly male field. But yeah, she's not the only one there. There are so many people succeeding in lots of different fields, especially the creative field. We've seen with the sort of explosion of Afrobeats. That's become super mainstream now. You're seeing collaborations with really big artists, stuff like film. We saw two brothers of Nigerian heritage win a BAFTA for their film, which was extremely focused on Nigeria. The entire story was set there. So we are really

17:54seeing people do amazing things and it opens up the world for people both home and abroad to see that these people can make it so can I. If I want to pursue these career paths for myself, someone has gone there before me and, you know, helped level the ground. We saw a lot of members of Nigerians in the diaspora, especially those who are into culture or the creative arts and the creative industry being hosted by King Charles at Windsor last week, just before President Tinibu's state visit. Does that speak to the relationship between Nigerians in the diaspora, for instance, who are working in the creative industry? What does that say to the exports of culture and cultural exchange? Yeah, I mean, I think it shows, you know, just how much Nigerian culture has been embraced. You know, when the President came, there were a lot of different activities and a lot of the focus was either business trade or culture. Arts is a big exhibition

18:56at the Tate, which is a huge gallery in London showcasing Nigerian art more than art. President himself stopped by there. So yeah, it shows that there is a real appetite to understand more, to know more, to learn more. And you see, she was recognized in 2024 when she was appointed the first African ambassador of the King's Trust. Tell us what that means and what role she plays as an ambassador of the King's Trust. That is something that she was really passionate to talk about. She wears her ambassador hat quite proudly and it means that she sort of engages a lot with charity work. The King's Trust is primarily for sort of younger people. It sort of helps them find work and people that are struggling in school in particular. So her role is to sort of raise awareness of the work that the trust is doing. There are other ambassadors, people like Idris Elba is also an ambassador, given that she's often Nigerian heritage and her role is an international ambassador. Her role is to sort of extend that work beyond the UK. So she does have a sort of direct

20:02connection to the King and the King's Trust and it's all about sort of sharing the work of the trust beyond the UK. Yeah, I mean, she's a DJ. You know, it's not, I mean, a typical African home when you say, when you're discussing Korean missions, usually I want to be a doctor, pilot, an engineer, a nurse, but when you start a conversation about wanting to be an entertainer and a DJ and the woman, what are the odds in a typical African home? Did you speak to her about that and what did she say? Yeah, I mean, we did talk about that and yeah, definitely his, I think with any sort of creative path when having that conversation with African parents, it can be quite difficult. I mean, she said that she was lucky to have parents that were quiet entrepreneurial and they kind of understood that she felt this need to sort of do something different and to think outside the box. This is what she said. Well, I'm very, very fortunate to have parents that are very entrepreneurial and I'm first generation, higher education. You know, none of my parents had the opportunity to go to

21:04university and so I think that they understood that it's about thinking outside the box and, you know, talking about the way the world is going, you've got to be innovative and you've got to bring something different to the table. And so I was able to chase my creative side, but also make sure I had the anchorage of education and I believe that anyone hoping to create the case should look at solving a problem and entering a market that is quite niche. When I first came to the UK at 13 years old, you know, Afrobeats were still very much world music and a very particular genre and now it is part of pop culture. And so it's about looking at where you are and what you can bring to the table and my identity and a way of expressing myself became music, it came through music. Yamsa speaking of education, we understand she pursued higher education at Oxford. Tell us more about that. I mean, how easy is it to getting to such institutions? Yeah, I mean, Oxford is one of the best universities in the world. Copy describes herself as a DJ by day and a student by night and

22:08she's actually been to four universities. So that includes Oxford. She's also been to King's College and New York University and at Oxford, she studied African studies and she spoke a lot about the sort importance of education. In addition to her music career, she said that education is what gave her confidence and it helps sort of boost her natural entrepreneurial drive and vision. Education is what has given me my confidence, you know, I am known as a DJ but outside the decks, being able to express myself, being able to be a woman that has vision, you know, you have to understand being from Nigeria, I feel like quite often we are having to be quite reactive and solved problems entrepreneur from a young age and so that really instilled in me the possibility to do anything I wanted. I really believe that having the opportunity to be educated both in Nigeria and outside Nigeria has created this world window, just infinite inspiration. Hence, you know, I decided I would be a DJ by night

23:11with a student by day. Yamsid has also been conversation on social media about her background and saying she's also from a very privileged background, both parents who are massive entrepreneurs. How do her fans feel about that? You know, because most fan bases are used to grasp the grey stories. I would say the response is sort of divided between her fans and it's a debate that's been going on for quite a long time. Some people think that, you know, the optimism that she has about Nigeria and her patriotism doesn't really reflect the reality of life on most Nigerians. She comes from a very wealthy family that's very well connected and that does not reflect the reality of people who are dealing with unemployment, inflation, insecurity. Others say, you know, her background is not something that she has any control of and she's also sort of addressed it publicly acknowledging that, yes, she does come from a wealthy home and that she tries to give back and tries to make the most of the access that she's got and some people respect the fact that, you know, she's been honest about that. She hasn't

24:11tried to sort of downplay her wealth or the fact that she is, you know, very, very well connected within Nigerian society. So yeah, it's a conversation that's been going on for a while and it won't stop any time soon, I'm sure. Many thanks to the BBC's Yamsid Adigo Key and Florence Othedola, popularly known as DJ Copy. And that's it on Focus on Africa today. If you enjoyed listening to the stories we brought you, we would really love to hear your feedback. Our email address is focusanafrica at bbc.co.uk. You can also get in touch via social media at BBC Africa or my handle at I am in Kitchen and that's with Dublin. This episode was produced by Quigante Shumba, Bella Twini and Daniel Dazie in Nairobi. Charles Gittonga was the senior journalist in charge and David Enzou, the technical producer. Our editors are Samo Muronga and Mariam Abdullah. I am in KC Obun and I will speak to you

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