K ꓘ 186 - Guys We Have to Have

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1:01Hello and welcome to Keeper Cup Podcast, Chad Young, and Keep Fall With You. And we are, I mean, I was going to say we're deep into draft season, but you're deep in a draft hour right now, it seems like Pete, just, are you on clock right now? Now let me just make sure, I am on deck, so I'm going to 12 team for Keeper League, my keepers are absolutely unbelievable, I'm on the clock right now. That one's a regular live minute and a half to pick draft, and then I'm in TGFBI, which is wrapping up, and that's a slow draft in my home league, which is a three hour clock. So plenty of time for those, but I'm really in the thick of it with this one. Goodness. Well, how many more rounds do you have on that one? It is around nine, and there are 24 roster spots, I think.

2:02Yes, I was going to say you're maybe be almost done, and now you're not, you're right in the middle of it. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. I watched two soccer games while we were recording, but I promised to stay focused on what's going on here, but if I forget to mute, you hear me cheering wildly, some Seattle soccer teams scored a goal, which one, I don't know, I'll tell you if and when it happens. But meantime, we are, as I said, deep into draft season, and so we started to take a look at who are guys that in Keeper Leagues, we just have to have those guys that as you're looking at the draft board, they're coming up and you're thinking, man, if I had this guy in a Keeper League, the value this year is good, the value long term is good. And we wanted to come up, we came up with three names each. One guy within the top 100, one guy in the 100 to 200 range, and another guy outside the top 200, that we just, we want, we want on our rosters.

3:05And the thinking here, the logic that we sort of use, the structure we use for this is we are using fan tracks, ADP. I think especially for a lot of people in Keeper Leagues, it's a pretty common platform. Obviously, we often use, use out our new for stuff, but when we're looking at ADP, that's a little bit harder. Maybe we do this next week again, but with dollars instead of ADP. It's another way to look at it. And what we tried to do is say that when we're looking at ADP, get a question of both, who is going to be worth it this year, as well as in the future? So trying to avoid the, like the example I gave to Pete when we were talking about this was like, I could draft Jesus Moda for basically free. And there's a good chance that by this time next year, people are going to be super excited about him, and his ADP is going to be skyrocketing, and we're going to be talking about the way we talk about, you know, Conor Griffin or Sal Stewart or someone like that. But that's not that interesting. Like yeah, there are prospects you can get for free. That's sort of not the point here. And Keeper Leagues, you should be trying to compete every year.

4:07So this is guys who, you're comfortable taking them at their ADP for what they're going to bring you right now, and believe that they're going to bring you value long-term. And that's sort of what we're, what we're trying to do here, that's the game we're trying to play here. Just as a couple other examples here, when I was looking at this, I mentioned Conor Griffin and Sal Stewart. They're both going close to 200 in drafts right now. They're going around guys like Colton Couser, Caleb Durbin and Rafe Ramon-Loriano, GJ Freedle. Like, I'm okay grabbing those guys right now at that price. Even just for this year, I think they could be better than those other guys. And of course, the upside is huge on both Griffin and Stewart. On the other hand, Rocky Sasaki going 243 at fan tracks right now. And while I still believe in Sasaki from a long-term perspective, he kind of looks like a mess right now. Things are not going great. It's not clear that he's going to be in the rotation. It's like, I don't know that if I were thinking about this year, that's where I want to use that pick.

5:08And so, from that perspective, I think I am like, that's where I'm trying to get it. It's like, who is valuable right now and for the future? Not just who can I take right now, cheap, and they'd be good in the future, but like, I've wasted a pick this year. I've wasted a roster spot this year. So with that, Pete, why don't you go first? Give us your guy within the top 100 that you're just like, man, I got to have this guy. Sounds good. I'm going to situate my stuff here so I can see my notes and see when I'm on the clock so I don't make a disaster pick here. All right. So, top 100 player that I'm targeting, this is a weird one, right? The top 100 one's going to be tough because you can do the whole like, ah, there's not going to be a lot of keeper value there. It's car and ADP. Like, no kidding because he's a top 100 pick, you know what I mean. So, I tried to find somebody who based on like tiers within a position, they seem like they're ranked too low within that tier. And so I think they could move up and do pretty well in terms of long term and that's Logan

6:10Gilbert, man. Logan Gilbert, to me, like, if I had to do out my starting picture rankings, I would have him fourth behind that big three and he's a distant fourth like those that the big three there being crochet skins and scuba is as elite as it gets. I would have Logan, Logan Gilbert fourth former elite level prospect and any simply delivered for three straight years from 2022 to 2024, he was awesome, low three ZRA for two of those years, huge volume, 32, 32, 33 starts, always at least 185 innings pitched, great home park, pitch deep into games, the ERA estimators, backed up what he was doing. He had some minuscule whips in there. He is the whole package except for one thing, the one thing we were looking for and we're a little bit confused by when he first caught called up and they were there were strikeouts, strikeouts were not there. And since that 2022 season though, the swinging strike rate has been climbing. It was 10.8 in 2022, last year was 15.5, that's elite, I mean, that's an insane swing strike

7:16rate. It obviously led to an explosion and a strikeout rate to 32.3%, that was the highest of his career. It ranked the 94th percentile on stack cast, it was coupled with a well above average chase rate of 30.4%, and top percentile extension, which allows his arsenal obviously to play up. He abandoned his cutter, he threw his two best pitches, his foreseem, or his slider, a noticeable amount more, I'm not going to say a lot more, but between the two of them, it was a lot more. Despite getting rid of that cutter though, he still throws four different pitches with consistently, it allows him to make up for those nights where maybe the fastball isn't working or the slider isn't working. So I guess the reason why he isn't the consensus number four behind crochet skiing in school ball is because he had a grade one flexor strain last year, that limited him to 25 starts. Now I understand some people are going to say, oh my god, he had a flexor strain, I'm not touching him, and I do believe that between the fact that it happened and the fact that

8:19took away seven of his starts, give or take, I do think that's why he's not the fourth starting pitcher. If you if you see that arm injury and can't do it fine, but like show me a pitcher that doesn't have injury concerns, he suffered the injury in April. He came back on June 16th, posted a 3.75 ERA, but the XFIP was 3.29 during that stretch. He had an 11.53 strikeouts for nine in a 1.10 whip, his K minus walk rate during that time frame. So when he came back from the flexor strain, he returned from the injury and through about a hundred innings of all pitchers who threw at least 70 innings pitch, innings pitch, he ranked fifth in K minus walk rate. That was only behind crochet schemes, school ball and his teammate Brian Wu in that order. He's in the thick of his prime, like he's figured out the swings and misses. I'm trying to find where the problem is. So if I can get him in the third or fourth round, which is where he's going, I might keep him in the second round. I mean, look at where skeets crochet in and school ball are going. Like he could still have value even at an inflated price.

9:19So I'm all in on Logan Gilbert. Yeah. I think that makes a lot of sense. And I think if you go back to his 2024 season, that was the 23rd best season on the Fangrafts player rater that year. Now 23rd best pitcher, 23rd best overall. You're now getting him at an ADP of 42. Is that right? This is an ADP 42. I think that's what I said 42 on fantastic. 42. And so, yeah, I mean, if that 42 is a fourth round pick, if you're in a league where next year he's going to cost you a third, all he has to do is repeat what he was doing before. And that doesn't mean the new strikeout. Like all that stuff Pete was talking about with the new, the improved strikeout right now. He doesn't need any of that. He just needs to go back to being what he was to be a keeper next year and a good value at his current ADP on Fangrafts. If he goes back to what he was in terms of the volume, the reliability and the strikeout

10:22stick around, yeah, he's going to jump into that top four and he's going to be like an easy second round pick. And so, I mean, I love this. I think this makes its hunnest sense. I think he's a safe pick where he's going, at least as far as any pitcher goes, right? To your point, like, he's a pitcher. He had an arm injury. Okay. But they all are risky. He is, to me, as safe a pick as you can make him a pitcher at this level because you're picking him a couple rounds behind a reasonable expectation of his value. And that's a pretty good place to be. So yeah, I'm a fan of this one. I think it makes a lot of sense. I went a different route. I went with a bat. I actually went with all bats as I looked at this. And part of that might be, I am more risk averse than you are peed on pitching in general. I get a little bit more antsy about like, how do I really care about the keeper value of a pitcher when they could miss a season at any time.

11:23But I, so yeah, whether that's why or whether I just found bats, I like, but my top 100 guy is a little bit similar in that he's a guy whose value looks great versus his 2024 season and not so great versus his 2025 season. And that's Jackson Merrill. Gilbert, we saw a big jump in the skills last year and the injury really sort of sidetracked the volume, which therefore sidetracked where he shows up on player raider. Merrill is low on the player raider who's outside the top 200 last year. Yes, he was injured. He missed some time. But there was also some skills regression there that is concerning in a way it wouldn't be for Gilbert because the skills for Gilbert got better. The thing I see with Merrill is he is going 67th on fan tracks right now. His 80, or his 80b, his player raider rank in 2024 was 30th. So if he gets back to being the guy he was for that one year, I was just one year.

12:27But if he gets back to being the guy he was, then he's a keeper for the next couple years, at least pretty easily, right? You've got three rounds of value basically between his cost and his, his production from two years ago. And when I look at what happened last year, like the case went up, he was dealing with injuries. But if you gave him a full season, the home runs, the runs, the RBI's, all pushed pretty close to where he was in that really good 2024. The average was down, but it was still good. So it's not like he became a liability on batting average. He was still a valuable producer for you in that category. The biggest concern is the stolen bases, right? They totally dried up last year. He went from being, we make sure I've got this right because I had it up before. In that really good debut season in 2024, he stole 16 bases. He stole one, exactly one last year.

13:30When he stole 16, he was caught three times, he was caught twice last year. That isn't, that isn't great. And that is a concern. And there's real risk that the speed just never comes back. But if you give him a full season of his power production, his runs and RBI's and a good batting average, even without a lot of stolen bases, he's going to be well worth his draft cost. And that's sort of where I look at this and feel, feeling like it's not, it's not safe exactly because maybe he doesn't do those things, right? Maybe he has issues with injuries and maybe he doesn't get back to where he was. But there's a very, I think a very clear path to him returning that 67 ADP, 67 ADP value. And it wouldn't be that crazy for him to do something like 24 home runs, 10 stolen bases, 90 runs and RBI's and a 270 average.

14:31And if he does that, now he's a top 50 guy. That's not even getting back to where he was two years ago, that's just getting part way back. If he does all of that, he's a top 50 season, he's an easy keeper for a year or two. If he does all of that and makes it, you know, gets the batting average back up closer to 290, gets the stolen bases back up closer to 15, there's even more upside there than what I'm just calling out. Now, my, I mentioned the stolen bases were concerned. I do think there is, he has yet to steal a base this spring and he's been in spring. He hasn't been with Team USA or off of the World Baseball Classic. And so it is a little concerning that he's had time and hasn't run and it does lead me to wonder whether he's going to run. Now, he has said he was trying to get into better shape this off season, but very intentionally he was trying to get into better shape through diet and exercise without putting on more weight because he didn't want to get bigger and bulkier. He wanted to be able to run.

15:32He wanted to be able to be a valuable defensive player like all the things that he's been good at. He wanted to keep those in place. And so you would think that he would have the, it suggests he has the intention to steal bases again. Typically, the intention to steal is, you know, it's like half the battle, right? If a guy intends to run, they'll run and if they run, they'll get some steals. We haven't seen it yet in the spring and so I got to be a little bit cautious on that, but it's not enough to scare me off. I still feel really good about the skills and the talent. He's still super young. I think that he's going to have a bounce back season in a big way. And if you can get him for an ADP of 60, around his ADP of 67, I think he'll be very happy keeping him for at least another year or two. I love this take. You know, you brought up obviously the stolen bases as the concern. I'm not a sports gambler. I do not endorse it, but I would love to know where Jackson Meryl's over under is at

16:33because I would smash the over on the stolen bases. He suffered a hamstring strain in April. And then later in August, he busted up his ankle as he's so young and so athletic center field or staying in center field is sprint speed is in the top quarter of the league. And I say this all the time, that's not a direct correlation to stolen bases, right? But it doesn't hurt to be fast. Like I would be shocked if he doesn't steal double digit bases next year. I think last year was just a weird anomaly. I think it's easy to forget how young he is because of how successful his rookie season was. It's just 20 years old. And I think the speed will be there. And you know, he's got some things he can still work on. The plate discipline isn't isn't great. That will come hopefully. But I still think there's enough there, even last year in a quote unquote, bad year for me to really like this player at his draft cost.

17:35Yeah, I think that the age is a good call out, right? I think I mentioned it briefly. He's still young. He doesn't turn 23 until April 19th. So I'll play most of the season at age 23. He could still be in AAA and we'd be excited about him still, right? So I think that does make a difference. You know, your right that speed isn't a direct correlation always to stolen bases. But he was a very effective base dealer in 2024. And so I think like, you know, you can be slow and steal a lot of bases if you're good at stealing bases. It would be fast and struggle if you are bad at stealing bases. He's fast and is shown a propensity to be good at stealing bases. So I think you're right. I think the chances of him being in single digits seem low to me. But that I go look at projections and the projections are all six from zips, although that's a little bit of a lower playing time up to nine from the bat and the bad X.

18:37So nobody is projecting him for 10. So if you're saying double digits, that is definitely taking the over, but I'm comfortable with that. I think that's likely. But like I said, I think he can return value at his draft cost, even without that. So that's part of the part of where this feels safe to me. Let's take a quick break. We come back. We'll jump into more of the middle rounds. Those guys in 80 p 100 to 200 and see who we're taking there. So when I ask, what is Odio? What comes to mind? Odio is a bit of everything. Odio is a suite of business management software that some people say is like fertilizer because of the way it promotes growth. But you know, some people also say Odio is like a magic bean stock because it grows with your company and is also magically affordable. But then again, you could look at Odio in terms of how its individual software programs are a lot like building blocks. I mean, whatever your business needs, manufacturing, accounting, HR programs, you can build a custom

19:40software suite that's perfect for your company. So what is Odio? Well, I guess Odio is a bit of everything. Odio is a fertilizer, magic bean stock building blocks for business. Yeah, that's it. Which means that Odio is exactly what every business needs. Learn more and sign up now at Odio.com. Alright, welcome back to the Keeper Cup podcast. Jumping outside the top 100, looking at guys who are going outside the top 100, but inside the top 200, I'll go first on this one. I went with another outfielder in the NL West. I went with another outfielder in the NL West in the state of California in a city that starts with sand, but a different city. I went with Elliot Ramos from the Giants, and this is, at some level, this is a very, very easy one. His ADP is 160 on fan tracks. He was player 125 on the player raider last year.

20:41He was player 142 on the player raider of the year. Before that, he's been super steady. I could stop there, right? Like, he's just, he's just going three or four rounds too late. That's it. That's the whole story here. But I'll go a little deeper because that's that's boring and not as interesting as it could be. The other thing I'll note real quick before I go deeper is if you go to fantasy pros and look at, you can see like a table of all the ADPs from different places. That 160 at fan tracks. That's the earliest he's going. So anywhere you're drafting right now, if you can get Ramos at ADP, you're getting a steal. He is anywhere from one and a half to three rounds cheaper than he should be depending on whether you think he is as good as he was last year or reverts to what he was the year before, which was still really good. But how confident am I in him repeating what he's been doing? He at 22 and 21 home runs last two years. He is projected for anywhere from 19 to 24.

21:42So right in that same range. He stole six bases each of the last two years. He's not exactly a, not exactly a burner out there, but he has stolen six bases each of the last two years. He's projected for six to seven steals this year. You could do the same thing with his runs. Now his runs and RBI is a little bit weirder because he had less playing time in 2024. But 54 runs, 85 stolen bases in 24 and 25. He's projected for anywhere from 62 and limited playing time up to 81 closer to full playing time. RBI is 72 and 69 the last two years. In that limited playing time, they project him for 62 up to again about 81. Like he's just projected to keep doing what he's been doing. His batting average projected to be a little higher than it was last year, a little lower than it was the year before. But that's it. He's just, the projections are all like, yep, this is who this guy, this is who he is. Which makes sense.

22:42He's 26. He doesn't turn 27 until almost the end of the season. But he's a guy who should be the guy we expect him to be. He should be sort of in his prime, continuing to chug along, doing what he's doing. And that's sort of what I'm expecting for him. Now I will note that last year he had a huge jump in his max EV. He had put about, he had about one 16 last year. He also increased his average exit velocity from 91.5 to 91.8. His hard hit rate stayed stable. His barrel rate dropped. And that was despite his launch angle going up, and what I think is a good way, I went from 10.5 to 11.5. But yeah, his barrel rate dropped pretty significantly actually from 14.5 to 8.8. That seems weird to me. And then this spring, his hard hit rate is up to 60%. His average EV is up to 96.5. Now it is 10 bad at ball events. And it's spring training. I don't want to get over my skis in terms of what all this means.

23:44But I think we saw some progress from him last year in terms of his contact, the quality of contact we were getting from him. And yet his home run per fly ball rate dropped from 17.3 to 11.9. I would bet on that rebounding. And if that rebounds, and there's an opportunity for him to be closer to 24 or 25 home runs, if the harder contact leads to potentially better Bapip, his Bapip fell from 3.29 to 309. If he can bring that back up even a little bit, with an increase in his home run per fly ball rate, there is upside here for him to go better than what he just did. And like I said, he was 142nd in 2024, 125th last year. If he just keeps up sort of that kind of gain and gets up closer to the top 100 for this year and sort of sticks there into the future, then you're looking at four years, five years that you could be keeping him at a one round per year increase, even a couple years

24:47on a two year per round increase. And so that's it. I see no real reason. He won't be the same guy. I see a little bit of reason to think he could continue to improve. And I don't need him to do that. I just need him to be the guy he was and he's a value right off the jump. Yeah. I like it. You know, the 85 runs sticks out to me. I didn't realize he scored that many runs last year. Heck, I didn't realize the giants offense scored that many runs last year. But Ramos is a guy I've just found myself not having almost any shares of. There's there's some outfielders. I'm going to talk about one of them that go around the same area that I like just a bit more. I think you made a really compelling case. I look at the average exit velocity. That definitely excites me. The two concerns I have for Ramos, one of them is maybe not all that necessary just because there are so few good options in San Francisco, like there's what are they going to replace him with. But he is a trash fielder. And so when I see someone who's not necessarily hitting recover off the ball like Ramos is, that worries me when he's that bad in the field. I would be more concerned if he had platoon concerns, but he hits lefty's just as well

25:50as he hits righty's. So that I'm not too concerned with. I think my biggest concern with Ramos and you could kind of view this as a glass half full. If you wanted to is his pull air rate. His pull air rate is brutal. It's about 14% almost like every season. Now I say you could view that as half glass full because if he's already hitting 21 homers with a poor pull air rate. So if he did find a way to straighten that out, obviously he could hit for a little bit more power, but it is a tough home ballpark. So I like the pick. I totally see that what's important context here is you could look at any single player or really, you know, any not top like 15 player and point out reasons why that player is not perfect. Like I just did with Ramos. The point is he's going pretty late and you could get value on him for a few years. So from that lens, I like that pick. Yeah. I think you're right. The defense is a concern. And I think where the defense maybe becomes a bigger concern is that with with Bryce

26:52Eldridge coming up, whether it's opening day or not, that's going to take up the D H spot, I think. Right. And they don't really have like, they're not going to move Rafi Devers back to third. So they've got Matt Chapman there and they're not going to move. I don't think Devers are eldridge to the outfield. And so Ramos has to keep himself in the lineup on as an outfielder. But like you said, I just like, who's going to displace him? So right. And on top of that, like I said, he's been a steadily productive bat the last couple of years. The defense was so bad that he was only a 1.1 F4 player last year. He was 2.3 though the year before that defensive metrics as we know are fickle. They move around quite a bit year to year. I think he's a pretty decent bet to be. If he gets full-time playing time to be a 2-win player and that's like a league average starting player on, and he's doing it by being a, an above average bat and a below average

27:55defender, that in general will keep you in the lineup, right? And so I don't think there's a huge risk that he gets, that he loses his job. I think if he, I think even if he be somehow ends up at risk of losing his job, he's got trade value. And I don't think the giants are really in a position right now to feel good about keeping a bat like his on the bench because his, like, if they don't think his defense is going to hold up, they've got to find someone else who either does or who's willing to put him at DH because there's just having a bench doesn't really make sense to me. So I'm not super worried about him losing too much playing time, but it is, there is some risk there. It's not a, it's not a zero percent chance that he loses playing time. I just think it's, I think it's unlikely, but you mentioned you had someone else in this range to talk about, so why don't you talk about that player? Yeah, so I went with Dalton Varsho similar to Ramos, like Dalton Varsho is almost only eligible

29:01for this through fan tracks ADP because pretty much everywhere else, according to Fantasy Bros, he's outside the top 200. Fan tracks though ADP 172, I think that's, it's like outfield or 50 or something like that. Look, he's not perfect. He's going to strike out a lot. He's not going to walk that much. He had three straight seasons of double digit steals from 2022 to 2024. That was 16 steals, 16 steals and 10 steals respectively back in 2024. He only mustered two last year. So I'm not sure there's going to be that much there either. He missed a lot of time in 2025. He got hit by a pitch. He missed a few games for that. But more importantly, earlier in the season, he suffered a hamstring injury. He missed like months for that and he came back late because he had shoulder surgery in the off season. So you're probably like, wow, this is a pretty compelling case as to why I should not have any shares of Dalton Varsho. No, I actually like him a lot because with all that said, he hit the abs.

30:03Absolutely crap out of the ball last year in just 271 played appearances. He spashed 20 homers. That would be 15.9% barrel rate. That's a crazy barrel rate to put his barrels in perspective. He had a 10.3 barrels per played appearance rate. That would have ranked him 17th among all hitters if he qualified. But he missed so much time. He didn't qualify. That would have put him in between Junior Caminero, who had a 10.4 and Nick Kurtz, who had a 10.2 and he kind of kept it going in the playoffs. I mean, he didn't against elite pitching when he got to the ALCS in the World Series. That was Seattle and the Dodgers. I mean, you could argue they have the best and second best rotations and all a baseball. But against the Yankees, just four games. He went seven for 16 with two homers, three doubles. So he kind of just kept it going. I'm a big believer largely due to the staff that I just mentioned for Elliott Ramos, which is the pulled air rate. Unlike Elliott Ramos, Dalton Varsho's pulled air rate is crazy.

31:06For four straight years, he's been one of the most elite hitters in baseball. That was 27.5% in 2022, 26.3 in 23, 29% in 2024, and 29.5% pulled air rate in 2025. So he lifts and pulls the ball so much. He hit the ball in the air over 70% of his battered ball events last year. So even if the speed doesn't come all the way back, you know, he missed two months with a hamstring injury. So just like Jackson Merrill, like, there's a reason to think he could start stealing some bags again, not a ton, but like 10 to 15. He's done it three times in his career already. And even if the K-Rate keeps his average pretty low, which that part I do expect, especially since he hits the ball in the air so much in addition to striking out a lot, I still think he's one of the best bets for power in the mid to late rounds. His level absolutely keep him in the lineup. Any pulls and lifts, I think there's a lot to like there for Dolphin Varsho.

32:08I just think those are, you could call it a gimmick, like I used to do for ESOC parodies, but unlike ESOC parodies, like Varsho hits the ball with authority while pulling and lifting it. Like, that's what we want, right? I mean, like, for a power hitter, that's the ideal. Yeah, I think the thing I've struggled with with Varsho a little bit is, what's the comp? Like, what's the, and I'm not a big like, oh, you know, I don't like, I don't love comps for prospects and stuff, but I do like comps from a value perspective of like, you know, if this guy does this, he'll end up with a season that looks similar to what, you know, this player did in the last year and this, you know, so I've been looking around at meterboards from last year and there's a couple of names that, that sort of stand out. I think the obvious name to compare him to when you start thinking about like the big upside potential here is Kyle Schwarber because Schwarber's such a big like so much power,

33:09low average, strikes out a lot like, he sort of fits the, the profile. Schwarber's just on base so much more and, and all of that, he leads off, he gets a ton of runs. So many other things going on with Schwarber and his average, his last year was 240, the year before was 248, like, Varsho was unlikely to touch that. So we're not talking about a guy who I think has that kind of upside in, and the other thing is like Schwarber stole 10 bases last year and it doesn't look like Varsho's likely to do that again, but maybe he will, I don't know. The guy who maybe makes some sense, and there's, there's two of them here, and they, they were teammates last year, Joe Adele last year had a 236 average with 37 home runs, Taylor Ward had a 228 average with 30, sorry, Adele 37 on runs, Ward had 36, Adele stole five

34:10bases, Ward stole four. You could say that they were in, I mean, you could not just say, they were in worse off enses, but Adele had 63 runs, 98 RBI, Ward had 86 runs and 103 RBI, that, that generally feels like the range we are thinking when we talk about the upside for Varsho. Next year's player raider, Joe Adele was 100 on the player raider, and Ward was 82. And so I think that does give you a sense that, you know, you're talking about Varsho being a guy that at fan tracks, you can get it 172 at a lot of other places, you can get even later, his, like, if he sort of does what he was doing, but over a full season, and he pushes 40 home runs, even without stealing more than four or five bases, even without an average over 230, he could be a top 100 guy, like there is a path there. Now, does a top 100 guy any very specific way?

35:12And I do think I, I, a guy like Ward, a guy like, um, a guy like Adele, like, I downrate, I downgrade those guys versus where they end up on the player raider, because taking a guy in the top 100, who's just going to kill you in a category like average, really hurts. And so I don't want to pay full price for those guys. And that's sort of the beauty of Varsho is you can get him for not close to that full price, get that value from him. And he'd still be a cheap enough keeper next year that you could keep him at not close to that full price and feel pretty good about it. So I like this, even though I like said, I choose to downgrade guys like this below what their production might be worth in a vacuum, just because I hate grabbing a guy who's going to kill you in one category.

36:13He's worth it because you're getting him late enough that the help he gives you elsewhere is worth it. And you know, those run in our behind numbers for Adele and Ward right now, roster resource has Varsho hitting second. I don't know if that'll stick. I don't know if that's how I would build the J's lineup, if I were building a J's lineup. I think I'd want somebody, they have enough guys who hit them all hard and hit home runs that you don't have to put him second. You could put someone with a higher OBP up there and let him hit lower in the lineup. But even if he gets lower in the lineup, the better lineup should help him get to some of those totals that Adele and Ward got to last year. And if he gets a full season hitting second in between Springer and Vlad with barge or hitting behind him, I mean, he could put up huge numbers in those counting stats. If you get close to 40 home runs and a guy pushing 100 runs and 100 RBIs, I'll take

37:18a 220 average in five stolen bases. It's fine. It'll play. So I really like this. I think this makes a lot of sense. And like I said, he's a lefty until you can worry about platoons and stuff like that. He's not on there for his ability to get on base and put the ball on play. He's on there because he hits homers and he steals homers and he can do that against whoever the other picture is. So I think his glove and the fact that like the fact that all you're really looking for him to do is run into a ball every once in a while and hit you a home run every three or four games like that's enough, right? You don't have to worry about his platoon splits as much. So yeah, I'm a fan. I think it's a good one. I think it makes a lot of sense to it's a nice pick. I think that that comp to Ward and Adele is a really good one. I think last year for many reasons was like a best case scenario for Ward and Adele. So I kind of like that. It's like a Varsho was pacing better than they were and they had great seasons. And so if the speed comes back at all because the hamstrings are better, like, you know,

38:22I could see him finishing first out of that group of three, but I like that comp. I think that's that's where he should be. Yeah. Let's jump to the guys outside the top 200 and Pete will get back to you going first with this one. Outside the top 200 that you just, you just got to have. Yeah. So, you know, we obviously need to do that rule that you mentioned about like prospects. So like, of course, I was like ready to talk about JJ Weatherholt or Samuel. But SIO is one that I felt pretty, pretty good about despite trading them away and keep her cut. Listen really too. I ended up going with Francisco Alvarez. I think his case kind of speaks for itself. Like I don't, I don't need to be super long on this one. His ADP on fan tracks is 283 so he easily qualifies for this. I think even in a one catcher league, I'm pretty good with Francisco Alvarez being my catcher. I don't know how many folks agree with that. I know that you've been a big Alvarez guy in the past. Look, the Metz didn't rebuild.

39:24They retooled. That lineup is still awesome. And Alvarez is finally healthy going into a season. He's still just 23, 24 years old. He set a career high max exit velocity at 115, which is a really strong mark in a career high average exit velocity of 93.1. He's a former top prospect, not just catching prospects, right? Like he's similar to Pesayo, the guy I wanted to go with, right, in that he was a top five prospect in all of baseball. I mean, we've been talking about this guy for years now in this show. And you know, on most shows, he's probably talked about. But I like the lineup. I like that he's finally healthy going into the season, even in one catcher leagues. I like him at this price. And obviously, if it does all come together for him, and it usually comes a little bit later for catchers, right, like look at Cal Raleigh. It took a few years for him to become this MVP level hitter because it's harder for catchers. They're trying to do a lot more than your average position player, D.H. or whatever it might be. So if this is the season where it finally all comes together and you can get him around

40:27pick 283, I have no idea what round that would even be. You're going to be smashing value for years keeping Francisco Alvarez. So a self explanatory pick, he makes the case himself based on his pedigree. But I really like Francisco Alvarez at that price. Yeah, I like that too. I think Alvarez, I mean, that makes him the 19th. Is it the right, the 19th catcher off the board of pan tracks and make sure it's crazy. Catcher so deep. 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, catcher off the board, pan tracks is a little bit lower at some other places. So on average, he's 19, the 16th catcher off the board. He is going after Samuel Basayo, who is interesting, but like we don't know what his playing time looks like, we don't know what he's going to do. Logan O'Hoppy, who used to be interesting, but is less so right now, that's crazy that O'Hoppy goes before him. Kind of Diaz, who I'm actually pretty high on as well, but I don't think it's obvious

41:33to me that Diaz is a better play than Alvarez. J.T. Real Muto, who might be bad now, I guess we'll see Alejandro Kirk, who I think is a better real-life player, but he doesn't translate to fantasy as well for him, because of the things he does well, Adley Rutchman, who's got a million questions about him. And then you get into the guys going early on, Smith, Baldwin, Salvador Perez, Augustine Ramirez, Hunter Goodman, Ben Rice, Langoliers, William Contreras, Cal Raleigh, up to the top. But you can make a real strong case for Alvarez, over at least one, two, three, four, at least five or six of the guys going ahead of him, which gets you clearly into that catcher one territory for a clearly non-catcher one price. I'm a fan. As you said, I've been in on Alvarez for a while. I think he's super interesting. I think he's got a lot of upside.

42:38I think this is the time to buy him. That's the other thing with Alvarez. The path to, if I start looking at next year, right? So we already talked about how we could see a clear path then being a top 12 guy this year and great. If I look at the next year and I start looking at catchers that I'm like, yeah, already right now, I can tell you I'm taking them ahead of Alvarez next year. There's almost nothing that could happen this year that would make Raleigh fall below Alvarez. Let's forget some catastrophic injuries, whatever. It's like normal baseball season stuff. Raleigh is probably going ahead of Alvarez. Hunter Goodman probably going ahead of Alvarez. William Contreras, Shay Langaleers. I think it's unlikely he catches Ben Rice. Now it gets interesting. Salvatore Perez is retained catcher eligibility. I don't know. And Jimmy Rice doesn't. But let's assume he does. I would bet on him being ahead of Alvarez. Oh, yeah, for sure. Then you get to Salvatore Perez is extremely old

43:43and who knows what he's going to look like. Will Smith is, I think, a better hitter than Alvarez is likely to be. But he's, is he 31 now? He's 30? Like he's getting older for a catcher. Alvin Rushing's coming. Dalvin Rushing's coming. And Smith has never been a super high-value guy. And so that potentially limits his value. Drake Baldwin, I think I like better than Alvarez for the future. But I do. But they're both guys that there are at least some questions about Yiner Diaz, Augustine Ramirez, Adley Ruchman. Are any of these guys guys that you're like, oh, yeah, they're definitely ahead of Alvarez in the future? I don't think so. So it's crazy to say that in an OBP league, I would already prefer Alvarez to Yiner Diaz. Like I don't know if that's a crazy thing to say or not. Yiner Diaz was the top five catcher as recently as two years ago, but in an OBP league, I think I might already prefer Alvarez. And I think Alvarez, I think Diaz was on the list of guys that were like, yeah, I could see taking him over. So yes, I think that's, I think that's

44:44definitely a possibility. But I guess my point here is like there really are only five-ish catchers that I'm like, yeah, this guy's ahead of Alvarez by the start of next year. So even if I can only, even if I can only sort of squeeze him into the top 10 to 12 right now, he's a good value. And the fact that I can easily see him moving up to the top six or seven by the start of next season, like there's a ton of Keeper League value here. I'm a big fan of this one. All right, let's take another quick break. We come back. We'll wrap it up with my guy from outside the top 200. All right, welcome back to the Keeper Cup podcast. Chad Young and people with you getting ready to wrap up our run through six players that we just have to have in Keeper League. And these are guys who based on their fan tracks ADP, we just think are good values. They're good values now. They're better values for the future. These are guys who are really targeting in drafts. And this is a guy I have picked them up in a bunch of leagues. I think I'm, I don't want to say I'm alone in being high on this guy because

45:49I'm not. I know there are others, but there's a lot of concerns about him and he hasn't helped those concerns by getting hurt in the spring. But Jackson Holiday, ADP of 282, for context, his 2025 season was ranked 200. So again, I am, I am confident. I feel good about the fact that this pick is good value immediately. Like if he just does what needed last year, which was super disappointing to most of us, he'll be good value at 282. If he just does what he did last year, he'll be, he could be even with time missed, right? Even if he is not healthy for the start of the season, misses some time. The volume's a little lower as a result. He could still easily cover the 282 ADP cost. But on top of that, if he shows any improvement

46:52at all, even with some missed time, he'll be back inside the top 200 value. And if he shows improvement and doesn't miss time or takes a big step forward, he'll be easily, easily, easily worth this cost. And the cost is low enough that if I look at him last year and say, okay, he was top 200 last year. He is still young. He still has a lot of upside. Let's say he goes from 200 last year to 190 this year. There's some skills improvement. Things look better. The volume's a little bit lower because of this injury. Maybe the power doesn't come all the way back. And so we're, you know, he just moves up a little bit. Great. He's a keeper. Then he comes back the next year and there's more skills improvement because he's another year older. He's healthy. He has a normal off season. And he jumps up to like 150th on the player rate. Well, now you're still keeping about like 250th. And it isn't crazy to think that there's a path to holiday being a top 50 kind of guy. That was where we all saw him going. And he's still young enough that that's possible. And like, I mean, it seems a

47:53little like it's, you know, I, I want to be clear that I don't think like I understand that everyone, everyone who knows this stuff is telling me that Connor Griffin is like the best prospect we've had in a generation. He's a level above anyone else. We've seen, I got that. But like a year ago, Jackson holiday was Connor Griffin. Like, this is like, that's how we were maybe not quite as effusively, but that same idea. And so that upside still exists for holiday. And that would be with a good offense on a strong team. I am a, the fact that you could go into a draft and get Jackson holiday for a cost that is six to seven rounds lower than his super disappointing 2024 season or 2025 season. Yeah, go do that. Go get him. And, and plan on him being your second baseman for at least a few years. Yeah. I wholeheartedly agree. You've got to buy the dip

48:58here. I'm sure there's a lot of people out there, a lot of listeners that had like unbelievable prices on Jackson holiday. And there was a season of disappointment and then a season of disappointment. And there's inflation and all of a sudden you're thinking like, man, I don't, I don't even know if this is good value anymore. But you're telling me you can basically get him at that same price you got him at years ago when we were like, he's the number one prospect of baseball. He's amazing. And he's still only 22 years old. Like, yes, I am going to buy that dip just just for the upside alone. He has not shown it at the major league level. And I, I think there's a real chance that like Jordan Westberg is back at the end of April or, or, or midway through May. And Kobe Mayo, who's having a big spring or at least he was, is finally mashing the ball. And it's hard to get Jackson holiday in there. But that's not the point because you're getting him so late. Like it almost does it matter. We're talking keeper leagues long term lease and the upside will still be there. And where there's a well, there's a way if he's playing well, he will find a

49:59way in the lineup, even one as stacked as Baltimore's is looking. So this is one that I can definitely get behind. I'm I'm buying the dip on Jackson holiday. Yeah, I think that that's exactly right. And like I said, I think to me, the big thing here is at this draft cost, I don't need him to be better than he was last year to walk away and be like, yeah, okay, that works. And he could he could regress from where he was last year. Still be a useful second base middle infield option for me. And then I have to let him go, I guess. I just don't think that's where we're headed. I don't I like right. I don't think he's going to get worse. He may never reach the heights that we hoped he would reach. Fine, he may never that may never happen. I don't need him to do that at this cost. And so that's where you know, and cost is everything. Like I had holiday I traded for holiday last year in a dynasty league. And I'd have to go back and look. I wonder if I can see. I traded

51:05Taylor Ward, Jesus Sanchez, and the number one pick in our our first year player draft net league, which last year was Roki Sasaki. Right. And this was this was when it was Sasaki or you could have taken Christian Campbell, but it was on the hype on those guys was through the roof. So I traded the option to take one of those guys with Ward and Sanchez for Jackson holiday, Cody Belinger, the fourth pick in the draft and a second round pick. I felt like that was pretty good value. I was really happy getting holiday there. And the reality was I was happy to move down to fourth because I wasn't a huge believer in Sasaki. I did not want to take him with that first pick. And yes, I would have been happy to take Campbell. He was available in that draft, but like I think I ended up taking Travis Buzana at fourth and like I was fine with that. So yeah, this year, I traded holiday along with Clayton Beater, who I'm pretty low on, but I get you know, closers or closers and he's probably a closer, but I traded holiday, Beater, and Juan Bredo, who is sort of a throw-in in this one mostly,

52:09for Christopher and Chess. Now again, that's an easy one for me. I will give up to you guys. I'm not super high on and holiday to get Christopher Sanchez into dynasty league. Fine. So this isn't me saying like, as my point here is, I'm not telling you that Jackson Holiday is going to be a top 20 player next year. I'm not saying that he is ever going to reach the heights we hope he would a year or two ago. But at the price he's going for here, right? Price always matters. At the price he's going for almost, you know, with a 300 pick in a draft. Yeah, go get him. This is an easy one. And so I'm I would go do this even in redraft because I think there's upside there and there's there's value to be had there, but in a keeper league where he could break out and be a top 100 top 50 guy going to next year. Yeah, no brainer for me, especially since most keeper leagues have I R spot or I L spots. So you could right after the draft throw him on the I L and start on the labor wire for replacement. And that makes him even more free than his cost,

53:14which is already basically free. Like that makes him literally just a free guy who's 22 years old, 23 years old and two years removed from me, the number one prospect in baseball and you get to just stash him or free it to no brainer. Yeah, I think so. Any honorable mentions, anyone you looked at that you're like, oh, we should talk about this guy before we before we kick off for the week. I was scrambling to pick my three. So I can't say that like a bunch of names came up. I don't think this particular player has a lot of keeper value, but there's someone Chad who you will be surprised by that I seem to end up with in a lot of leagues right now, who's a top 100 pick who I talked trash about in the solo episode that I did back when you were traveling. And that's Randy Arosa Reina, who I feel like I feel like for some reason this is like the cheapest he's been in years, at least definitely on ESPN on ESPN. He's barely a top 100 pick. And he had arguably his greatest season. He was three home runs or three stolen bases. I can't remember which

54:18three it was away from being 30, 30. And the Seattle lineup isn't what it used to be. It's a pretty good lineup that he's hitting in. So I think he's slated to hit fifth. So like, look, he's not a young guy, but he's not someone who I'm worried about the bottom falling out at any point. And he just went 30, 30. So like if he repeats 30, 30, he's going to go much earlier in drafts next year. And you're going to have him at a bargain. So it's not the sexiest pick. I don't I think if I had more time to think about it, I would pick somebody else, but that one comes to mind as someone who I'm kind of like yeah, confused. He underperformed or I guess overperformed his expected stats for so long. And I was like, I don't want anything to do with this guy. And then last year, he like just kills the ball and is amazing. And he's going later in drafts. I can't wrap my head around that one. 56th on the player raider. His ADP is 48. I guess it's higher than it's 40th on fan tracks. It's much lower on some of the other places. Yeah, fan tracks. He's not as good a value.

55:22But he's 48 there. And in the 70s or 80s everywhere else. Yeah, that's kind of weird. The other the other honorable mention. So I want to mention just a couple of of royals. Michael Garcia and Vinnie Pascontino, I feel like people are not fully baking in the they're not fully baking in the fact the walls are coming in and it's going to be an easier place to hit next year. And so I think there's a big chance that both of those guys jump up. They're basically they're basically their cost is fair for what they did last year. So if you you know maybe if you think those guys are going to regress and the walls coming in is just going to balance that out. That's that's one thing. But I think they're both in a good spot. And so I I think they both deserve some some mention. And then on the prospect front just real quick, I will note that I think Kevin McGonagall is going to get pretty close to as much if not as much playing time this year as Connor Griffin and is going 100 picks later and is almost as good a prospect or maybe and maybe a better offensive prospect. I'm I'm I'm pretty high on on

56:23McGonagall and I think he feels like he should be he feels like he's going to love what he is. But anyways we have covered everything we could cover on this one. I think Pete, thanks for your time. We'll be I'll get this we'll get this up for you guys tomorrow. We're recording this on Sunday. You'll hear it on Monday and then we'll be back with you next week.