Is this the next nation in Putin's sights?

0:00ABC Listen, podcasts, radio, news, music, and more. Have you ever wondered why everyone's worried about microplastics? Or what the best time of day is to exercise? And why are some people left-handed, Tegan? Well, the best people are. Anyway, we've got the show for you. It's called What's That Wrath? Where we answer the health questions everyone's asking. I'm physician and journalist Dr Norman Swan. And I'm health reporter Tegan Taylor. And we promise we're not here to sell you supplements. It is surprisingly hard to find podcast hosts who aren't. But we do want you to search for what's that rash in the ABC Listen app. And we might answer your question next. Estonia is just a two-hour drive from St. Petersburg in Russia. It's a nation determined to brand itself the Silicon Valley of Europe. But look, I must admit, Amy, it's not a place I think about all that often. They did pretty well in Eurovision last year. Jerry, weren't you watching that? That should have made all the difference to me. Cultural output aside, there is a lot to lose sleep over in this frankly tiny Baltic stage.

1:00Our guest today is the Foreign Minister of Estonia. He's in town to meet Australia's leaders with some strong messages for us. I'm Amy Schraddald. I'm Geraldine Duke. This is Global Roaming. Well, there is so much that is happening in the world this week, Geraldine. And frankly, it's hard to keep up with, particularly when you're in a country like Australia, trying to make sense of all the complexity of the Middle East. And then a politician like this arriving here saying, listen, there's other stuff you can't forget about. Yes, indeed. So we sort of slept off to the Estonian House in Surrey Hills and a little backstreet in Surrey Hills on an extremely muggy Sydney afternoon to meet the Foreign Minister. Now, they are frontline NATO and EU members.

2:02They're the northernmost Baltic state. They, of course, were under the Soviets for all those years. They gained their independence in 1992. Very big sense of self, the Estonians. Quite a significant, small but significant community in Australia who take great note of everything that happens there, sort of four beers. I'm really delighted that you described Margas the Foreign Minister as young. You keep referring to him as young. He's 47, which is older than me. So I feel like he didn't look like that. You say you looked younger. Just move on, haven't you? Before he was the Minister for Foreign Affairs, he served as Minister for Defence 2016-17. So just after Russia's earlier invasion of Ukraine, you'll hear this in the interview, but he's obviously pro-Western. He's got very strong views on Russia, as you would imagine. Here he is now, Margas Tarkner, the Foreign Minister of Estonia.

3:04Minister Tarkner, welcome to Global Roaming. Thank you for receiving me. Welcome to Australia. Yes, I'm really happy finally to be here. It's my first time. Yeah, the events of the world slightly disrupted your journey here. I guess you're vulnerable to all of this is where you are. Yeah, my plane tickets were changed, but actually I was even happy to getting one more day in Estonia because of the Iran's aggressive behaviour against the Gulf region countries. We had a special operation to bring our citizens out. And Foreign Service was responsible that, so within the last four days we made a special flight, and now I can say that everybody, Estonian citizens, who wanted to be out from the region to home, then we accomplished the mission. There's no getting away from this week and the dramas of this week, the soaring price of petrol and the chaos across the region. But you're coming from a very different part of the world with a different conflict.

4:04I mean, what are you focused on in your mind? Yes, of course, we are the neighboring country for Russia, already hundreds of years. And of course, Russian aggression against Ukraine is something which is in our focus because it is direct threat to European and our security as well. But we are a member of NATO and European Union already more than 20 years. And we know this threat already, decades. And finally, we can say that all the other part of the Europe they understand and recognize as well that the threat from Russia and Putin is real. It's not theoretical. Do you expect the Putin wants to take your country? Yes, this is a question what we are having every day. He's not of our next, which is the border in country or Estonia next, but we don't believe in that. And we have been living there like 10,000 years. We have a plan for the next 10,000 years as well. And the case is that our people are not afraid. We know exactly what to do, but we are concerned that maybe some other nations which are not so close and are not knowing Russia, they are more not so much ready to act.

5:06If you are asking all people who made the service at the end of the last year as well, we are asking two questions. First is should Estonia fight back if Russia is starting the aggression? And more than 90% said yes. But even more important was the second question. Are you personally ready to participate in this fight? And 78% of how people say yes. And the background as well is that all of our people know exactly what to do. So we know what to do. When you are not afraid, we have decided two things. We fight back and we are not alone this time. And two things will happen. And the question is that I do hope that all the other nations are thinking exactly the same way. Then this is the main deterrence for Russia. Because Russia is thinking Putin is thinking many times before he is going to attack Estonia or Finland. So of course we are focusing on that. But also the crisis in the Middle East, the crisis what we see now about Iran is affecting us directly.

6:07Iran has been a direct supporter militarily and politically as well to Russia. So within the first three years they actually delivered lots of military equipment, the drones to Russia. And also politically they have been always the best friends. And in that regard we can say that Iran is not able to deliver anything anymore, this regime I mean. But also as a public figure, you know there is a head of mob as Putin is to offering the protection to his friends as dictators globally. One and the next and the next dictator is falling. We are talking about Al Assad in Syria. We are talking in Madura in Venezuela. We are talking now the leadership of Iran. And actually Putin is not able to do anything so this is like the good thing. But the other way around what we see as well the oil price is increasing heavily. And it gives as well the leverage to Russia again to earn more money to its machine.

7:10Can I ask you because you are drawing the parallel between Iran and Russia. But I have been speaking with some Ukrainian visiting politicians earlier today here in Australia. And it seems there is also some argument that Iran has learned from the Ukrainian experience. So a smaller power dealing with a much bigger and more conventional military able to run pretty hard at them using drone technology. Exactly and I have said many many times already doing a couple of maybe four or five years that we have many things to learn from Ukraine. But the Iran has learned a lot from Ukraine as well. Yes everybody who is smart in the meaning of how to use not like the global power but very efficiently is learning now from Ukraine. But the other way around now the Gulf region governments they ask Ukraine help. And also I was in constant communication with the foreign minister from the region. And the first time really recognized that now they understand exactly how Ukrainians are feeling because they have been under heavy attacks from Russia.

8:16And now they are asking these experiences and also technologies. And that's well even US and Western Trump asked President Zelensky to be helpful. To lend the advice. That's why we are telling in Estonia that we don't need to only support Ukraine as they need our support heavily. But we need to learn from them and also regionally if you see the map. So Ukraine is the largest military power in our region who really is in the middle of fight and very successful fight against the Russian army. And they can not only receive our support right now but they will deliver security for our region in the future. So we need to bring Ukraine in. We need to bring Ukraine in all different levels not only helping. You know mental set this let's help them because Ukraine people are suffering it's right. But actually we need in Europe Ukraine more than maybe Ukraine needs us in the future. So what do you make then of President Trump reducing the sanctions on Russian oil and meet all of this?

9:18President Trump actually lifted the sanctions which are not directly too Russia but to India. And the reason is now Russia is earning more money. And this is exactly what I am telling you is direct impact is the change of the oil price. We in European Union we put the oil price cap on oil and gas so we can regulate our sanctions on that. But the case is that Russia didn't do well economically. They are running out of the energy and money for the war machine. Can you genuinely see the outlines of some form of ceasefire deal? Because there are people confidently saying they can. You and the ceasefire are where? Between Ukraine and Russia. There is no science for that. You don't think there's any here? No, no. There is no science for that. I was in Ukraine just a month ago when I met as well President Zelensky. There is no science even more the other way around.

10:19Russia is putting more pressure on Ukraine. They are not having any strategic breakthrough on the battlefield. Even they are losing some... The Russians are? Russia is losing actually territories. They have no chance to break through. So why aren't they trying to find some sort of compromise solution then? Russia is not finding any compromise. No, why not? Why not? Because they have not changed the goal. Putin has a goal to have all Ukraine and part of Europe as well. Not maybe physically Europe, but as well dictating our security structure. The restrictions for Ukraine army about membership of NATO, as well rearmament programs, everything what we have witnessed in 28 points plan. So Russia has not changed the goal at all. So now Putin is playing with President Trump winning the time, putting more pressure on Ukraine, but Ukraine is not breaking down. And now they are already months bombing the civil infrastructure and energy system.

11:19This was crazy, crazy winter. I was there, minus 20 degrees. But Ukraine people are not breaking. So that's why Putin is using in rhetoric that he would like to have a deal. But the deal is something that Ukraine is not able to adopt. It means sovereignty, it means territory, integrity principle. And also I don't see that Putin actually wants to get the deal. So I'm trying to think of how Australia should consider this multitude of conflict that's unfolding in the world right now. Australia's committed military hardware this week to the UAE to supporting defensive operations there. A wedge tail, these sort of spycraft that have been deployed previously to Ukraine as well. The way you're describing your view of the world,

12:19I would imagine that maybe there's a strong argument to say you withdraw to your new region and you operate only in the areas that are immediately impacting you because these are very real and very present threats. And we can think of what those threats might be for us here in Australia. Is that how you see it? Can I come closer to you or reach out? I see it totally the other way around. Of course, we need to understand that the end of history times what some philosophers or historians were thinking at the end of the 90s and the beginning of 2000s, it will never happen. So we see again that the great powers are using the force. Now the question is mainly about whether the deal what we made after the Second World War called the United Nations Charter is surviving through all this, what is happening globally or not. We are existentially interested about this rule-based world. And it means as well that even we, as a small country, we have two main principles after regaining our independence,

13:20not to repeat the history what we had at the end of the 30s last century. We fight back to affinity this time. We are not letting anybody else to make a deal over our heads. And we led in 1939 to have a multi-reportal pact in Europe when different countries were just divided. And the second is we will never be alone again as we were. And this is exactly which is an answer for a question that even for Australia I think that to be alone here, just focusing on the regional security alone is a wrong way to go. So we need to stick together. We need to operate together. And I think that NATO is a frame we can cooperate as well. The US will be the dominant power, at least a minute really. Whatever the Trump administration is putting the conditions they need as well. All of us, they need Europe, they need Australia. Well is that a hope of yours or is that a reality? It's a reality. Because in many ways you need to believe that.

14:22Otherwise it is terrifying. But I mean this is what we are going through too. We are trying to work out exactly how we keep the Americans down here. Through the show they are interested. Through the show they are interested. Because I can say, I was Defense Minister of Estonia in 2016, 17, when Trump was first time in office. And we were talking exactly the same thing already before that Europe must do more. We must invest more heavily to our defense. It's not only about the US. It was out of balance after the Second World War. I have said publicly and I can repeat in Australia as well that Europe, on military level, has been like an old lazy fat cat who just hoped that somebody is coming to pour the milk to the can and maybe we are leaking this milk or not. But the understanding that Russia is a direct threat to Europe. It came right now. Putin actually published his plan already 2007 during the Munich Security Conference. When he said clearly that the main problem for him is to eliminate the root causes.

15:26And the root causes was the collapse of Soviet Union. It was clear. And what we saw was Georgia in the Asian and Ukraine in 2014 and in 2002 and so on, and Europe didn't do anything. And even now in 2002, I think that it was not Putin who woke up Europe. It was Trump who said that the relationship between US and Europe is not unconditional. That's interesting that you say that so. So even though I could see Putin's behaviour. But it's a good thing. But why? This is what we can't quite understand. Because everybody, I'm not talking about the Baltic States, Poland, who had a history about the occupation and losing a huge part of our people or people. This was something that, you know, it doesn't happen with us. It won't happen with us. But now even the war in Ukraine, that we are not fighting as Europe. We're paying a lot, not only for supporting Ukraine, but as well our economies and our threat.

16:26And Russia has already started the war in Europe. Not classical ways, not article five based as NATO, article five means. But hybrid war. If we list everything in Europe, what has happened during the last four years, we call it hybrid attacks. But I hate this word because these are the attacks who have not reached on the article five level. If we list everything that has happened in Europe and put this list like six years back, maybe we could call already article five. Because, you know, this starting already. And this region as well here, it's the same thing. Can you share for listeners what you are talking about in actual practical reality is happening? Because we've done a mini-series on this on global rhyming. People don't fully understand that. It's not hard to grapple with. So what is it that you see? What's the worst thing? What does your population experience in this kind of grey zone warfare that makes it tangible and identifiable difference to reality that you can point to and say that is definitely Russia? If we start from this everyday life, it's cyber attacks,

17:28crazy amount of cyber attacks or what? Estonia is under it because we are a very digitalized country. And the figures popped out from a couple of thousands more than 11,000 per year. So it's huge. Then we have this hybrid attacks. I sent out last August, the first Secretary of Russian Embassy, who literally was mediating for hiring people, paying money, who assets and also, you know, people. So maybe the last thing you have witnessed is in Poland was actually the railway what was connected to Ukraine. It was attacked or disrupted. Disrupted totally. As well, you know, the huge mall when thousands of people went. It was in Poland as well. It was put in fire. And you know, many things, people were dead and so on. And then we can say already that, you know, the war today is not starting as we used to see from movies that, you know, you can order from Netflix that the orchestras are playing

18:30some instance and Petersburg or Moscow railway station. And then troops are moving in now. It is a tactic. It's a boiler. Our society is as a frog turning on the heat. That's why I'm saying that. We already used to. We have, you know, shadow-free tankers between Estonia and Finland. There is a tiny corridor. 80 kilometers between two countries. And then if you put the territorial sea and the economical sea and then the six nautical miles corridor, which is 65% of Russian gas and oil is going through. Most of these unflagged ships in very bad conditions, shadow-fleet. And we are trying to get rid of them. They are violating all the rules and also the fighter jets and militaries escorting them. So these are the realities we couldn't expect like maybe ten years ago. There's a risk though with this, right? And Jordan and I have discussed. They sit great length. You kind of panic populations. You make people second guess everything.

19:30And maybe we better off just imagining a reality where it's not all malign. And it's not all necessarily trying to undermine everything. Is that naive to think about it that way? No, it's not naive. But at the same time, we made a choice about our strategy years ago. We publicly announce everything. And we react as well. And we witnessed as well many, many countries in our neighborhood who said that no, no, no. Let's not panic. But I think that people must know what is happening and also we need to have measures for them. They are very actively trying to divide our societies to test our unity as allies and so on. So this is the really hard described era in the meaning. Well, particularly for Estonia, which had that quite significant Russian population. Russian-speaking population as a result of the Soviet Union. So I'm wondering how you're managing this because are all Russians people to be feared?

20:34Or is that not how you think about it? Is it just Putin and his cronies or what? It's not about nationality. It's about regime. And our Russians who are living in Estonia know even more than us. What is a life in Russia? They are really afraid that their sons will be brought into the war to Ukraine. So they don't want to have Russia in Estonia. And they enjoy the life. So they've got Estonian citizenship, have they? Mostly, yeah. Even more. We have had cases that they can travel to Russia and they were caught and sent to Ukraine. So they definitely know that this kind of life in Russia about their relatives having, they don't want to have. When the war does finally end, whenever that might be, there'll be a whole lot of people who've been competent in that war. Who might be spread out to other parts of Europe and even, you say, even to a place like Australia? And how developed that thought for us please? Yes. I asked the question from Estonian government and services about a year ago at what if the peace is coming?

21:35Really? With peace? Is Europe ready for peace? And of course we know our doctrines and we are ready to give the security guarantees and everything which is like classical end of the war. Accountability and we know everything what to do. But this kind of hybrid race will remain there because we are talking about close to one million combatants right now who are fighting against Ukraine. They are part of aggression. They are mainly the excriminals or crazy people anyways. We know already now and witness that Russia is pushing their people supported by the secret services to Europe. And then if the peace is coming, everybody is living in happiness. I think that the biggest problem for Putin is to get rid of these people because they cannot absorb in their societies these crazy people. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of ex-combatants. Estonia initiated this blacklist so we are listing them already now.

22:39We are collaborating with many other European countries. So you know them by name? We know them by name. And also this is a great message to Russian people that if you will be part of the aggression you will never enter to Europe again. Of course only place you can enter is the Hague then the special tribunal is working. But you are also suggesting that Australia needs to think about this as well. Yes I have a meeting with your Minister of Interior tomorrow and I am going to introduce this idea because Russia globally is going to act like this. This is our intelligence says. Post-Purten, whenever it is that he goes, what is Russia going to be like? Does this set of attitudes as it prevailed post-Purten or not? There won't be a democracy. Maybe there will be some kind of messy period when the fight for power will happen. But this is regime. It is not about Putin. And Putin personally as a dictator is fighting for his life right now.

23:39Because he cannot stop the war because war is something keeping him in power. So the only guy who left from Kremlin to retirement was Rushov. And the other guy just went out dead as well as other dictatorships if they are not happy. If you put in prison somewhere in New York. So the case is for Putin as well that even Putin will be dead in some reason. I don't know, H or health or whatever. There will be struggle but the regime will remain. Russia won't change as a democratic country. And some people think quite the reverse that actually that there are very bright people around the FSB, strangely enough, who are ready for a very different sort of Russia. And that it actually is Putin who's got this imperial dream. Not the rest of Putin is represented in the regime. It was some kind of good mistake that the Yeltsin appeared in the beginning of the 90s, really. But we see it. We are neighbors, close neighbors. And we have never seen the democratic Russian never. And it will unfortunately not coming back.

24:40Minister, thank you very much. Thank you. How are you digesting all of that, Jell-Dee? It's a very punchy, as a very punchy foreign minister. Look, I found it fascinating. I've got to say he's got a big message to send about Estonia. I know Estonians. I know what they're like. And they're determined. They won't be walked over. Look, there's still a small country. There's no doubt about that. They are ready. Just like Finland. The Finns talk like this too. But his message. I thought, look, I wasn't prepared for his message to Australia about watching in the future whom we led in the door. Now, that was very fresh stuff. What did you think? Look, I've just been reading Robert Harris' Munich. Oh, yeah. About the lead up to the Munich conference, Chamberlain, Hitler, Mussolini. But, of course, they did, in the end, invite some Czechoslovakian diplomats to the hotel near where they were meeting.

25:48But they weren't brought into the room. They were told what was negotiated, what the outcome was. And, you know, it's very... I guess it... In live ends, it's all to hear a country like Estonia saying, we won't be walked over. We know what to do. We will fight. We won't be alone. But I was reminded, as that conversation was unfolding, that often in this kind of great power politics, when the crunch comes, often the smaller players are not even invited into the room. Oh, completely. I just couldn't agree with you more. It's a horrible thing to face. That's why I find what Poland's, you know, Poland's up to 5% of their GDP is spent on offense, because they're also determined they won't be in the pawns that they were in 1939. But you can't guarantee this, but, of course, they're better equipped and ready. But in different ways, and obviously Estonia is a smaller country than Australia, but more proximate to conflict. The question that is being asked of us now is we observe maybe the disintegration

26:52at the very least the re-ordering of this international rules-based order. Do you try and get involved? Do you try and shape events? Or do you accept that if you're not involved and try to shape events, that they'll be shaped for you? Well, I think that you've got to be realistic about the fact that events often will be shaped for you. But like there is three things, actually, we didn't get it to him, that he says, that Estonia works on the basis that strength comes from social cohesion, economic resilience and defense capability. Now, it's a very interesting troika that, and I think we can take that on board, and I'm sure it equips you better for where you go, but I'll tell you what, it's no definite. It just isn't a definite shield. Global dot roaming at abc.net.au is our email address. Thank you for all of your feedback that's been rolling in. We promise we're going to get to it soon. It's just been such a heavy news week that we haven't had so much of an opportunity to deal with some of that. We'll be back Monday, Geraldine, with a special episode with Frank Dakota.

27:55Indeed, who is one of the world's most respected historians of China. Historians and thinkers about China. And he was on stage for a Sydney writers festival special conversation. And we were there too, and I think you'll just love it. It might give you something to think about. It might indeed. See you next time. Bye-bye. You've been listening to an ABC podcast.

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