Is CLARITY Finally Dead?🚨Senate Expects Failure

0:00is clarity act set to fail. Guys, we're going to break that down for you today. You've probably heard me mention a pulled before and there's a reason I keep talking about them. A pulled makes it incredibly easy to bridge a gap between your portfolio and the real world. This has not been done before. Their uphold debit card is the best example of that. It lets you spend your crypto or your cash anywhere visa is accepted all while earning 4% back in XRP. On every purchase, it's the easiest way to stack rewards on your daily spending. Download the uphold app for more and get started. I want to jump over to this tweet right here to kind of lead this off. If you look at all the things that are happening this week, you've got PPI coming in, CPI coming in, clarity act coming in on the 15th, and then the Fed decision the day after that. And this is now with high odds at around 60%. So a lot of brewing that could be impacting the market. So I want to go to a clip real quick that kind of explains that if this were going to get passed, it's very unusual, in fact,

1:00rare that this would happen so close to midterms. Take a look. It basically exempts the president from any kind of ethical constraints. And that's just not going to fly in the Democratic caucus. These companies can go to Singapore, Switzerland, the UAE, and have a well understood clear set of regulations. A Senate test vote is locked in. I think we can get this bill over the finished line and hopefully get more than 60 votes come September 15th. But it's rare to pass a major regulatory measure this close to the midterms. And if Democrats win in November, that could create friction with the White House. So there you have it guys. This is heating up in a sense that maybe clarity is on the ropes. In fact, if you look at the frustrations that are coming in from the industry, well, take a look at this and you can kind of see what I'm talking about. We just heard that the House cut two weeks from its schedule, the final two weeks of its

2:00September schedule canceled, which is devastating for clarity. It's not looking great, which is obviously very frustrating for the industry because we've heard future proof again and again over and over from both the CFTC and the SEC. But you know, the three of us definitely know that the best way you future proof things is legislation because it's very difficult to amend or to undo legislation. It's much easier to change real making or guidance, which is a lot of what we're seeing now. All right. So you can see there's frustrations boiling across the industry and of course the other area that plays into this is still why. Well, the decision still is getting to the point now where Republicans are coming in and warning the crypto market that this is actually going to not pass and it's all boiling down to these ethics rule. This is coming in from one of the Republican senators. If the Republicans are already saying this, they are setting up the market for sure. Other things you have to look at is this puts everything

3:04on a roadmap now that could go to regulation in November. This would happen after the election in the midterms. And with that taking place, you're going to have a completely different makeup, I think, within the administration and what's going to be happening there, I think is that the Democrats are going to end up taking a win here over the Republicans and because of what's going to happen most likely in the midterms. If you look at the clarity odds right now, they are continuing to dive. This is on the one day. This is course over the last week, holding it right now at 16%. So not heavy going forward. I've got another clip here that will go a little bit further into why this vote doesn't come together. My probability that Clotchris exceeds in September 15th is 5%. That's almost no chance. Republicans hold 53 seats. If all 53 vote, yes, Clotchris needs seven Democrats. Holy and Miranda, public no votes over yield, which puts it at nine. Tillis has

4:05said he votes no without better ethics provisions. That's 10. Senator McConnell of Kentucky is still recovering from his fall and Senator Galegos Republican count suggests a few more no votes. I have two, I have two named, he said three to five. The count of Senate Democrats who have publicly committed to yes on the floor is zero. Five percent is generous. There you have it guys. The way that that is count down and of course this has been kind of our position and looking at the ethics issue being one of the biggest challenges. Now you've got Senator Lumbus. I think now throwing last minute Hail Mary's up and she simply says if clarity doesn't pass this Congress, the next real opportunity to bring market structure is in 2030. This would be in the next election for president. So all of this changes. Everything, of course, will this even matter? Many people are pointing to the SEC and the CFTC as rule-making could be the guidance that the market needs. When you look at the speed in which institutions are still moving, I just don't necessarily see this going any other way. Visa is now officially

5:11supporting 160 stablecoins in terms of their linked card programs. That is huge. When you look at the adoption curve that we're seeing by major financial organizations such as Visa, others that you have to look at right now as Ethereum is actually going hard on this in the sense that you can actually do transactions without even holding ETH. You'll be able to pay for those transactions. Stablecoin, this is all a very positive move I think for blockchain in general. Getting this across the line though could still come this year but it may come under a Democrat House-led House and possibly even Democrat Senate going into the end of the year. If you look at Ethereum, you've got BMR and FundStrat now holding 4.9% of the entire ETH supply. That is significant 97% of the way of its goal in just 15 months. Other things that are happening right here that I think are interesting is that you have so much commitment coming in from institutions. This is in the sense that we'll see large asset managers including Art BlackRock and a handful of

6:15others announced they're tokenized security products. We've already talked about this quite a bit at length but I think the other thing considering that we have clarity just in a week. We anticipate right now whether it's on a fail to pass these innovation exemptions for tokenized and perpetual futures are going to roll out anyway shortly thereafter. That again still points to a market that is going to have two upsides. One, it's going to have clarity if it doesn't pass because at least you know now in the Senate or I should say the SEC and the CFTC can get to work and it may restructure the Senate in a way to where they get a bill that could still come in at the end of the year. Again, the market I think is already primed for this. Other things that you got to look at right here. This puts the total count up at about 109% over the last 30 days and 25% since May all of this is on the total number of tokenized asset holders out there. What this tells me guys is that we're going to see a continued acceleration of adoption in terms of real world assets

7:19and what this might mean for blockchain coming down the pipe on traditional finance and even BlackRock. I bet clients now bought another 117 million of Bitcoin on Friday. You can kind of see the diagram there. This is getting real when you look at the acquisition layer and the amount of adoption in a time right now where a clarity looks as though it's not going to happen. Further on, you've got Michael Saylor doing another purchase of of course Bitcoin but not of micro strategy. So the real question is when does he buy back micro strategy? Watch for that very closely. Other points I want to get at that boils down to where all of this is coming from and that is in reference to energy pricing and all of this is significant if oil breaks 100 dollars and stays there and I think the feds inflation problem gets a lot worse if that does occur. So if you look at the feds decision, it is getting tighter and tighter on an increase and a no change coming down to pretty much a split decision. You've got 53% as of today

8:25that we get a 25 Bips increase so it's come back up on the chart slightly and a no change holding at 46. Let's go to a clip because this will get into a little bit of whether or not a rate height could actually happen. Take a look. So I think equity is benefit from earnings and until I see interest rate risk turning it to something bigger like credit risk, equity risk, I think earnings provide a shield for equities. What do you think he's going to do and what do you think he should do? So I don't know what he's going to do. I know the market thinks there's a 60% probability that he's going to hike by 25 basis points. He being the FOMC to be clear. If I was sitting on the FOMC, I would argue for no hike. You argue for no hike? I would argue for no hike. I would point to stable inflation expectation. I would point to the productivity impact of what's going on in AI and other innovations. And I would also point to the fact that what is driving inflation right now

9:32is insensitive to higher rates. And the risk is that you tip over the housing market even more. All right. So I think Mohammed and I are on the same page is that you tip over the housing market. That's one of the concerns I have with a hike. And I don't think there's enough there. And even if you go back and look at the polymarket, if you like that, it's still kind of a split decision. And I think the impact still leans into Trump still wanting a wash to cut. The likelihood is this is going to be a pause, but we'll see. It's coming up very soon. We're going to be covering that live. If you guys are not subscribed to the show right now, do it and hit the little bell because it'll give you a notification when we go live on the FOMC because this will be one of the biggest meetings. Maybe this year. So stay tuned.